Outside policy Israel, especially in its region, has always been extremely casual. But sometimes this ease starts to go off scale. So, another exacerbation began at the end of January 2021.
On January 26, the media reported that at an international conference of the State Security Research Institute, Chief of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) General Staff Aviv Kohavi spoke harshly about the possibility of the United States returning to a nuclear deal with Iran, stating that a return to this deal is unacceptable, even if it is in something. it is improved. Because, according to the general, after the end of such a deal, or even before its completion, Iran will be able to quickly develop nuclear weapons, which will become "an intolerable threat to the security of Israel and the entire region."
Aviv Kohavi also warned that in the event of hostilities, the territory of Israel would be subjected to massive rocket attacks, from which it would be difficult to defend itself. At the same time, he stressed that the response to rocket attacks would be a large-scale attack on enemy targets both in open and built-up areas.
The Foreign Ministers of the UAE and Bahrain, who spoke at the same conference, supported Kohavi, saying that any deal with Iran should imply the curtailment of the nuclear program, the solution of the problem of Iranian ballistic missiles (read - the elimination of these very missiles) and the adjustment of Iran's regional policy.
What is so strange here?
The strange thing is that not the first persons are not the first, even in this region, the powers are taught how to conduct the foreign policy of the newly elected and just (not a week has passed) new president of the world's # 1 power. And Aviv Kohavi is not even the first person in his department, in the army.
And they teach the President of the United States on camera, in front of journalists from the world media. From the outside it looks just like rudeness. But the main oddity surfaced two days later.
On January 28, the same Israeli media reported on the speech of Aviv Kohavi by the head of the press service of the Iranian army, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi. The reaction was very harsh. And to explain this harshness, the media were forced to quote one sentence from Kohavi's speech, which they omitted on January 26. Here it is:
On January 26, Lieutenant General Aviv Kohavi announced that the preparation of operational plans has begun to end Iran's nuclear development.
Translated into ordinary language, this means the preparation of a preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. This is how the experts in Israel understood it. You can see how it looks in real life on the Internet about the preemptive strike by the Israeli Air Force on the Iraqi nuclear reactor on 07.06.1981, Operation Opera.
In Iran, this operation is well remembered, so the reaction was as follows.
If the enemy makes the slightest mistake, we will destroy the launch sites from which the missiles were launched, as well as wipe Tel Aviv and Haifa from the face of the earth. This will be done as soon as possible.
- said General Shekarchi.
He also said that Israel does not represent the full power of the Iranian army.
1. The General Staff cannot develop plans for a preemptive strike against another state on its own (and, moreover, make these plans public). Only by order of the Minister of Defense, who, in turn, can issue such an order only by order of the Commander-in-Chief, i.e. Benjamin Netanyahu.
2. The media did not cite the phrase about planning a preemptive strike in the report on January 26, but brought it only on January 28, forced to this by the tough reaction of Iran. Despite the fact that the media of other countries noticed this phrase. Hence, it is clear that the topic of a preemptive strike on Iran is toxic in Israeli society. Israeli experts believe that Israel is not capable of waging a war with Iran by conventional (non-nuclear) means.
3. The words of General Shekarchi lead to suspicions that Iran already has several nuclear warheads, albeit from foreign fissile material. “… We will erase Tel Aviv and Haifa from the face of the Earth. This will be done as soon as possible. " Israel "... does not represent the full power of the Iranian army." Which makes the situation worse.
Aviv Kochavi's words were not disavowed by the Israeli leadership. This is another oddity. It turns out that this coming out was made with the knowledge and by order of Netanyahu.
In February-March, events continued to unfold. But, before considering them, it is worth trying to understand the possible motivation of the characters.
And for this we need to move, oddly enough, to Ukraine, in November 2018. What are the most important features of the situation in the country for us?
1. Ukraine has been in a state of permanent "kind of war" for many years. The situation is characterized by periodic gunfire. Nobody starts serious military actions, no peace settlement takes place.
2. President of the country Poroshenko is in an unpleasant situation. In six months the elections, which he will obviously lose. It is very desirable for him to postpone parting with the post in order to resolve some issues, selfish and not only.
3. One of the most important reasons for the reluctance to part with the post is the unrealistic number of criminal cases opened against him. For a while I followed their number, but on the 12th or 13th I gave up. But the deeds are the most, that neither is real.
What way out of this situation did Poroshenko find? Everyone knows about this very well. He sent three ships to break through the Kerch Strait: two boats and a harbor tug. Demonstratively did not ask for permission to pass the strait. The calculation was that when the violators refuse to obey, the ships of the Russian border guard will open fire and another 5 - 7 Svidomo dead will be added to the "heavenly hundred". Then Poroshenko will be able to declare martial law throughout the country and postpone the elections indefinitely. Poroshenko was out of luck. The unrealistic restraint of the Russian border guards made it possible to do without casualties, and Poroshenko had to go to the elections, which he lost. But the surviving Ukrainian sailors were lucky.
Let's go back to Israel today. What do we have?
1. The country has been waging a "kind of war" for decades. Arabs periodically fire rockets at Israel and commit terrorist attacks. Israel responds with air raids. And vice versa. Moreover, there is a formal state of war.
2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is in an unpleasant situation. In December 2020, the news of early elections to the Knesset (parliament) fell on him. This will be the fourth election in the last 2 years. There is no certainty that Netanyahu will remain in office.
3. Netanyahu has three criminal cases on hand. In May last year, he became the first incumbent prime minister in Israel's history to have a criminal case heard in court. And in Israel they don't joke with it. In 2011, the former president of Israel actually sat down, and in 2016, the former prime minister of Israel actually sat down.
How does the situation in Israel look like nothing? People in similar situations with similar life experiences often tend to do the same thing. For people in politics, the choice of different options is greatly reduced. Netanyahu has much less choice than Poroshenko. Poroshenko, having ceased to be president, remains quite an oligarch for himself and has significant resources to "resolve issues." Which he proved after losing the election. He created a party for himself, became a deputy, no one remembers about his criminal cases (especially against the background of what the new president is doing).
Netanyahu, stripped of his post, becomes just a citizen. Without a lot of money, without assets, without friends, allies, patrons. On the contrary, for many years in politics and 15, in total, years of premiership, he has accumulated a lot of competitors, envious people, enemies. Who will gladly make it impossible for him to return to politics. Even if they are not imprisoned, they will lead to a heart attack or stroke. Three criminal cases are enough for this.
What options does Netanyahu have? There are not many of them. And his actions strongly overlap with the actions of the Ukrainian presidents. Similar circumstances - similar actions.
Netanyahu started and widely advertises the search for the remains of intelligence officer Eli Cohen, who was executed on May 18, 1965 in Damascus and buried in secret. The Russian military was involved in the search at the personal request of Netanyahu to Putin. For 55 years, the remains have been buried in an unknown place and no one cares. And here - the elections on March 23, what about without Eli Cohen? Maybe this is a coincidence?
Here in 1982. during the first Lebanese war, Zachariah Baumel went missing. On April 4, 2019, the remains of the fallen hero were handed over to Israel by the Russian military. So what? Oh yes: the elections to the Knesset were held on April 9, 2019, and Netanyahu's Likud party won, of course.
We are looking at Ukraine. Before the elections to the Rada last year, an exchange of prisoners was organized, Zelensky indicated his participation and the "Servants of the People". When, after the elections, the exchange of prisoners was prepared by Medvedchuk - he got his hands on him so that he would not climb where they were not asked. The exchange was thwarted. Well, how will we exchange everyone, whom will we change, if necessary again? And that people are sitting - so they will sit, not Auschwitz, go.
In general, there is complete symmetry in actions. So why not assume that the reaction will be similar to the prospect of landing? That is, a military threat will somehow be involved. Organizing a blunt direct provocation, like Poroshenko, is unlikely to work in Israel. A real military confrontation with Iran will cost Israel too much. But it is possible to designate the likelihood of a breakdown in the conflict and blackmail the Israeli elite with this threat, hinting at the provision of guarantees against criminal prosecution. Or you can inspire the people of Israel with an immediate and adequate response to an enemy strike. In this case, of course, it is better to attend to the fact that the "enemy" strike was delivered on time. Not earlier and not later than the required time. It is important.
And the elections are approaching. Almost the entire February was held in the current regime, periodic raids on the objects of pro-Iranian militants. In the end, Israel received a warning from Moscow that Syria's patience might run out. But then events accelerated. Israel, like Ukraine, was drawn to the sea.
On February 25.02.2021, XNUMX, in the Gulf of Oman, as a result of explosions, damage was caused to the Israeli vehicle transporting vehicle MV Helios Ray. And around this incident, a hype was organized with an evidence base at a highly likely level.
Rami Unger, ship owner, 26.03.2021:
As a result of the explosion, two holes with a diameter of about one and a half meters each were formed in the sides of the ship, but the full extent of the damage will be understood only after the ship returns to the port.
He also noted that he doubted that the explosion was organized to harm Israel.
At the same time, the Israeli media immediately, on March 26.03.2021, XNUMX, began to unwind an active campaign to designate Iran as the culprit of the explosion. Motivation - revenge for the murdered head of the Iranian nuclear program Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
Nobody bothers themselves with evidence, and Channel 12, without specifying the source, says that the cause of the explosion was a missile fired from an Iranian ship.
The latter is completely ridiculous. Those holes in the casing, photographs of which appear in the media, may be the result of an explosion of no more than 500 g of explosives. So far, no one has reported more serious damage. So it was not. An anti-ship missile is at least 50 kg. explosives, rocket kinetic energy, plus unburned rocket fuel. There would have been much more trouble. Especially if there were two missiles, according to the number of holes. And the cargo of the ship is cars. Probably with some amount of gasoline in the tanks?
Iran's wines were actively discussed, at least until March 1, inclusive.
On March 5, TASS reported that the Israeli Defense Minister said in an interview with the American television channel Fox News about the preparation of a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. About which General Aviv Kochavi spoke in January. Again, the Minister of Defense cannot decide on such an interview himself.
And on March 12, Iranian media reported a terrorist attack on an Iranian ship in the Mediterranean. The explosions were organized like the tracing paper from the explosions on MV Helios Ray. Simply, the action is indicated with a small amount of explosives. With minimal damage. Demonstration.
But if the authorship of the explosions on the Iranian ship is not in doubt (since the Israeli media diligently prepared the people of Israel for the fact that "retribution" would follow immediately), then the authorship of Iran in the explosion on MV Helios Ray is doubtful. Especially when you consider that the owner of MV Helios Ray, according to the Iranian website PRESS TV, is associated "with a close relationship with the head of the Israeli spy agency Mossad Yossi Cohen."
Especially when you recall an article in The Wall Street Journal dated March 11, 2021, which indicated that since the end of 2019, Israel has used weapons, including water mines, to strike Iranian ships or ships carrying Iranian goods when they are moving towards Syria in the Red Sea and elsewhere in the region. And there are at least a dozen such ships.
On March 16 at 22.35 local time, Israel struck the suburbs of Damascus. Most of the missiles were shot down by Syrian air defenses.
In general, the leader of the people frolics, not denying himself anything. This is understandable, not everything in the election campaign is successful. One of the main points of the pre-election program Netanyahu planned to make the vaccination campaign. But on March 16, CEC chairman Uzi Fogelman banned the Likud from using the slogan "Back to life," under which the vaccination campaign had been running from the outset.
And when Netanyahu announced an agreement with the UAE on the UAE's investment in the economy Israel's $ 10 billion, Abu Dhabi denied this statement, saying that the plans are in the very early stages of development, noting that they do not want economic negotiations to become part of Netanyahu's election program.
Maybe that's why the voting date was so close to the bright holiday of Passover. Just 4 days early. This year the volume of work of the CEC will be 2 times more, so the general director of the CEC Orli Ades is not sure that the commission will finish the calculation on time. And since government structures do not work on Pesach, the publication of the election results in this case will take place 2 weeks later. And what happens when the publication of election results is delayed, we all saw in November last year. IN USA.
In general, it is pointless to predict something specific, but the course of the current elections to the Knesset is definitely worth watching. Taking into account the motivation of the main character. And with the hope that he will not play war games.