What a military scenario of Ukraine for Crimea might look like


On the anniversary of the reunification of Crimea with Russia, another "spring aggravation" took place in Ukraine. Independent Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk called on Berlin "to take on a moral duty to end the illegal occupation of Crimea", and not just like that, but for "the everlasting historical responsibility for Nazi tyranny and 8 million Ukrainian war victims." This is how unobtrusively one of the NATO member countries was called to the war with the Russian Federation. Who will actually go where, let's try to figure it out.


In fact, the experience of the collective war of the West against our country for the Crimea already exists, and it has been repeated many times. Suffice it to recall the eponymous Crimean War of 1853-1856, when the British, French and Ottoman empires, as well as the Sardinian kingdom that joined them, fought against the Russian Empire. And, alas, we lost it then. The affair ended with a rather humiliating Paris treatise, according to which the Russian Empire lost part of its territories and military infrastructure, and its Black Sea Fleet was sharply reduced. However, the Russian soldiers showed great courage, holding Sevastopol against the coalition troops of the interventionists for 349 days, and in the future we managed to replay the consequences of the military defeat. Serious economic and military reforms.

The second seizure of Crimea took place during the Great Patriotic War. The combined German-Romanian troops occupied the peninsula and besieged Sevastopol for 250 days. Among the reasons for the defeat of the Red Army is the lack of shells and other ammunition caused by the almost complete sea and air blockade of Crimea by the Germans. According to various sources, during the defense of the peninsula and during its subsequent liberation by Soviet troops in 1944, about 1 million of our fellow citizens died. During the Nazi occupation, more than 15 thousand people were brutally tortured and killed in the death camp located on the territory of the Krasny state farm. In general, all this makes the invitation of the Ukrainian policy Germany to Crimea. Many Germans with relatives in Argentina must have winced over this proposal.

Will the modern FRG or the NATO bloc, in general, recapture the peninsula for Kiev? Of course no.

At first, a fairly large military grouping of the RF Armed Forces is concentrated in Crimea, armed with modern types of weapons, including: Iskander-M OTRK, Smerch MLRS, Solntsepek TOS, Dagger air-launched hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles "Caliber", coastal missile systems "Bal" and "Bastion", SAM "Triumph" and "Favorite", etc. All this and much more is organized into a deeply echeloned defense that is capable of besieging and thinning out even the most powerful army of the aggressor.

Secondly, theoretically, the NATO bloc can still assemble a grouping numerically and technically superior to the Russian corps, which is guarding Crimea. But how to secretly transfer hundreds of thousands of foreign military personnel who will be morally ready to fall in battle for the national interests of Ukraine, with all the necessary armored vehicles and aircraft, to the peninsula? No way. And these are not all the components of the Crimean puzzle.

Let's remind that now is not the 19th or even the 20th century. A local war for the Crimea or the Kaliningrad region will no longer work. An attack on these or any other Russian regions will automatically be considered military aggression against the entire nuclear power. In accordance with our military doctrine, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation can respond with nuclear strikes not only against an enemy assault force trying to land on the Crimean coast, but also directly on the territory of the aggressor countries, destroying decision-making centers. All of this is well understood in the North Atlantic Alliance, therefore they are not so much preparing to fight with Russia as they are portraying this readiness, at the same time assimilating the allocated financial resources.

The only country that can really try to attack Crimea is Ukraine itself. Kiev understands that Moscow, for a whole range of reasons, will not use nuclear weapons against the fraternal people. Well, the RF Armed Forces will not use weapons of mass destruction against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, that's all. That is why the United States can further incite Ukraine against Russia under the pretext of "de-occupation of Crimea." Something like this is possible if the Minsk agreements are first implemented and the state border is transferred under the control of Ukrainian border guards. Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will free themselves and move from Donbass to the border of the peninsula. There they will gradually accumulate in anticipation of the right moment. The attack may begin with a missile strike by the Neptune anti-ship missile system against the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol and other military facilities of the Russian Defense Ministry. American curators will help the Armed Forces of Ukraine with intelligence and, possibly, send the Ukrainian army HIMARS MLRS to destroy Russian military airfields and air defense systems.

No, we are not saying that Kiev will win and be able to recapture Crimea by military means. Still, the forces are incomparable and the entire local population of the peninsula is on the side of Russia. The APU will be defeated and thrown back, but they are capable of doing things. Why would such an attack, initially doomed to defeat, to Washington? Well, at least, this is an excuse to apply another package of tough sanctions against Moscow, send NATO troops to Ukraine to “protect” it, and at the same time, from a safe distance, see and check how well the Russian army is now operating and whether its weapons are actually so effective. ...
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  1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 18 March 2021 18: 09
    +6
    To call the Ukrainians a fraternal people after they have staged genocide of the Russian people in Ukraine can only not be normal, this time. At a minimum, cities in western Ukraine, such as Lvov, were included in the list of targets for a nuclear strike by the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation, in case of war, these are two. So, in the place of UKROPs, I would not even dream of conquering the Russians: Crimea, Kuban, Kursk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Voronezh, on which they have been rolling out ruins for a long time. And you better not meddle in Donbass. And then, after all, some patsreots and heroes of Dill are so insolent that they dream of cutting out all the Russians right up to the Volga. Read what these animals write on Censor.net, they also dream of a common border between Ukraine and Georgia, by conquering Russian lands and destroying the population living there. So anyone else, but for the Galician beast of several nuclear warheads from the arsenals of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation, I don’t feel sorry at all, they’re Armageddon. Although, it is possible to use not nuclear warheads, but warheads of a volumetric explosion, since in the Russian Federation they are the most powerful and best in the world.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 18 March 2021 18: 32
      +4
      In the fall of 1661 and the summer of 1662, Yuri Khmelnitsky besieged Somko in Pereyaslav to no avail. Khmelnytsky's Cossacks and Crimean Tatars were distinguished on the left bank by extreme cruelty, for example, the population of the ancient city of Lukoml was completely cut out or driven into Tatar slavery, after which it fell forever into desolation.

      the list of claims to Ukrainians is not limited to this century ...
      1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
        rotkiv04 (Victor) 18 March 2021 19: 10
        +2
        the outskirts simply have to be liquidated and denationalized
        1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
          Just a cat (Bayun) 18 March 2021 19: 26
          +3
          Denationalization is the transfer of existing property from state to private.
          Can it be denazified? but it won't work either. it's like making a vegetarian out of a dog. hatred of others because of their own inferiority. and here only millions of years of evolution. maybe then Ukrainian scientists will appear laughing
  2. Oder Offline Oder
    Oder (Wojciech) 19 March 2021 10: 53
    0
    Secondly, theoretically, the NATO bloc can nevertheless assemble a grouping numerically and technically superior to the Russian corps, which is guarding Crimea. But how to secretly transfer hundreds of thousands of foreign military personnel who will be morally ready to fall in battle for the national interests of Ukraine, with all the necessary armored vehicles and aircraft, to the peninsula? No way. And these are not all the components of the Crimean puzzle.

    Nobody will fight for the Ukrainian Bandera.

    Deputies of the Lviv Regional Council appealed to the government of Ukraine and the Ministry of Youth and Sports with a request to assign the name of Stepan Bandera to the Arena Lviv stadium, Interfax reports.

    https://www.rp.pl/Spoleczenstwo/210319507-Lwow-Stadion-zostanie-nazwany-imieniem-Stepana-Bandery.html
  3. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 19 March 2021 13: 15
    0
    No politics. September 1972. After the construction brigade, I rested in Gurzuf, then spent three days in Kiev with my mother’s front-line friend. Her husband worked for Antonov, a combat pilot, in Korea, on a MiG 15, shot down two American Sabers. Received the order. A beautiful city (the center where I went), amazing in comparison with Moscow catering, Uncle Kolya put on Shtokolov's record. Didn't they live well together?
    1. Binder Offline Binder
      Binder (Miron) 20 March 2021 06: 26
      -2
      Quote: Petr Vladimirovich
      Didn't they live well together?

      Everything is relative. That year, as part of the youth team, I had the first opportunity to visit a capitalist country - Finland, which until 1917. was also part of the Russian Empire. So the Finns lived much more prosperous than Kiev and Moscow, demonstrating which is better individually ...
  4. Denis Malygin Offline Denis Malygin
    Denis Malygin (Denis Malygin) 19 March 2021 13: 49
    0
    Gather a group, send a group, attack, seize, dream - the whole world to dust !!!!
  5. Binder Offline Binder
    Binder (Miron) 20 March 2021 06: 08
    -7
    I would advise patriotic gentlemen to somewhat lower the degree of militant rhetoric and not forget that the Armenians rejoiced over the capture of Karabakh for almost three decades and did not doubt that they would now be its masters. As a result, they received an impressive military defeat and for a long time lost the desire to resolve territorial disputes with a neighbor with the help of weapons. The annexation of Crimea was a mistake of Putin and his entourage, a gross miscalculation of analysts who decided in 2014, taking advantage of the instability of a neighboring state, to annex Ukrainian territories to the Russian Federation. The idea was ambitious - to "liberate and protect" the Russian-speaking population from Kharkov to Odessa and Transnistria. It did not work out, Novorossia, invented in Moscow, died before it was born, Russia became an outcast state, Crimea - a suitcase without a handle and a problem that would have to be solved.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 20 March 2021 09: 11
      +2
      And if you look from another angle, the separatism of Kravchuk and Kiev in 1991 was a real mistake of Ukraine. Who was Ukraine and who did it become? The population of the country has decreased by almost 2 times, the largest factories in Europe have been destroyed, they want to take the land from the people and give it to foreigners. Half of the existence of the USSR, it was led by the Ukrainians.
      1. Binder Offline Binder
        Binder (Miron) 20 March 2021 10: 39
        -3
        In Russia, there are no less problems with demography - there is a depopulation of the titular nation, the largest factories have been destroyed, the standard of living is the same as in Third World countries, and there is crime in the government and government agencies. The Russian Federation exists exclusively through the sale of raw materials and energy resources, if not for these revenues, the country would no longer exist.
        1. Sergey_8 Offline Sergey_8
          Sergey_8 (Sergey Petrov) April 9 2021 08: 49
          0
          That is, 148 million in Russia in 1991 and 146 million now is the same thing as in Ukraine with 51 million then and, according to the most optimistic estimates, 41 million? Are you normal to write that this is the same thing? The standard of living in the Russian Federation from the age of 91 is now slightly more than 110%, in Ukraine - 60%. Is this the same thing? What are the largest factories that have been destroyed? For each "destroyed" one can put as an example 2-3 new and no less large ones. Oil, gas in the budget is already less than 50% of the budget, it's time for you to update the training manuals. What is the problem - let the West not buy))) and there will be no Russia))) weak? As for Karabakh, it is precisely Russia that returned Crimea after Ukraine chopped it off in the 90s. As for Armenia, if Pashinyan was not prosovish, and Azerbaijan treated Russia like today's Ukraine, then Azerbaijan would not have seen Karabakh. Aliyev is a far-sighted politician; it was not in vain that he built bridges with Russia. So write complete nonsense, and without numbers and without specifics.
    2. Kedrovich Offline Kedrovich
      Kedrovich (Alexa980) 21 March 2021 01: 46
      +1
      You are not dust. After all, when it is necessary to strike at decision-making targets, the strike will be at Washington, Brussels and Jerusalem. In the centers of real world evil.
      1. Binder Offline Binder
        Binder (Miron) 21 March 2021 17: 46
        -3
        Maybe, before threatening Washington, Brussels and Jerusalem, it is worth first sorting out Grozny and stopping paying the shameful tribute to Chechen scumbags? And then you swing at the centers of world evil and at the same time lick the dudes to Kadyrov - you get a pure circus. laughing
        1. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 24 March 2021 10: 21
          0
          Pork garbage .. In Russia, dofiga regions living on subsidies from the center. Dagestan that we also pay tribute? Stavropol Kalmykia Astrakhani.Chechnya does not stand out from this ryadya.Kadyrov was bought with giblets - General Academician and other other .. So at least he holds all the other natives of the Caucasus by the genitals tightly. smile
          1. Binder Offline Binder
            Binder (Miron) 24 March 2021 17: 47
            -1
            And you want to engage in primitive demagoguery ...
    3. Dimasik Offline Dimasik
      Dimasik (Dmitriy) April 5 2021 17: 45
      +2
      Yes, Crimea has never been and never will be Khokhlyatsky, forget it.
  6. Anton Zaduyveter (Anton Zaduyveter) April 8 2021 23: 29
    0
    it is necessary specifically through the social network to ask the warriors from the west - are they ready to just disappear from life and erase all the memory about their country ...