Balts intend to teach Russia a lesson for the loss of transit through Klaipeda

So it happened. Belarus finally moved from words to deeds and began to send its oil products not through neighboring, but hostile Lithuania (the port of Klaipeda), but through Russia. The first consignments of gasoline and fuel oil were sent by train to our Ust-Luga. For Vilnius, this is an extremely alarming bell. Using his example, Moscow and Minsk are trying to show the Baltics and other neighboring unfriendly countries that they should not bite the hand that feeds them. But will the Lithuanian authorities make the right conclusions?

Apparently not. Immediately after seceding from the USSR, the three Baltic republics staked on "European integration" and abandoning the entire Soviet legacy. In accordance with the recommendations of senior comrades from the United States and Western Europe, they almost completely got rid of their industry and went on a course towards complete energy independence from the Russian Federation. In return, Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius were included in the EU and NATO and began to receive European subsidies "for the maintenance of trousers."

A direct consequence of this Western choice was the trademark Russophobia of the Baltic states, to which Moscow turned a blind eye for a long time. It is not difficult to understand why: both Russian and Belarusian export trade flows in the Baltic traditionally went through the ports of Lithuania and Latvia. Everything began to change when the Kremlin finally decided to reorient them to our St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga. Large funds have been invested in the construction of new terminals and the expansion of port facilities. It is not the first year that the Balts have sounded the alarm, noting the constant decline in the volume of Russian transit.

And now Minsk is forced to follow the example of Moscow. Lead Vilnius a little more adequate policiesit is likely that Belarus would continue to enjoy convenient transit through the neighboring country. But the Lithuanian authorities are what they are. Therefore, about half of the volume of Belarusian oil products will now go through the Russian Ust-Luga. So that “Old Man” does not suddenly change his mind, for the next three years he is bound by a “take or pay” contract, that is, he will have to pay for the services of domestic terminals, even if for some reason decides to continue using Lithuanian transit. It is highly likely that Minsk will start sending its potash fertilizers through our ports after gasoline and fuel oil.

And what do you think Lithuania made any correct conclusions from this? Not at all. Now they are thinking about how to “punish” Russia and Belarus. Let's see what they thought there.

Let's go back to where we started. Having seceded from the USSR, the Baltic states headed for economic integration with the West, for some reason naively believing that there is "smeared with honey." Almost immediately, in 1992, Lithuania began negotiations with neighboring Poland on the construction of a gas interconnector in order to get rid of its energy dependence on the Russian Federation. However, real progress began to occur after, at the turn of 2008-2009. The agreement on the construction of GIPL (Gas interconnection Poland-Lithuania) was signed in 2015 after the events in Ukraine. This is a 552-kilometer gas pipeline that is supposed to connect the Baltic States and Finland with the single gas market of the European Union. The project was recognized as important for the entire EU, as it reduced the dependence of the former Soviet republics on Gazprom.

Note that its feature is the ability to pump gas in both directions: in the direction of Poland - Lithuania at the level of 2,4 billion m3 / year, and from Lithuania to Poland - 1,9 billion m3 / year. Why is it so important? Because Vilnius still naively hoped that his older comrades would allow him to become a regional gas hub. To ensure its own energy independence, as well as to enter new markets through the resale of surplus LNG, Lithuania acquired a floating regasification terminal (FSRU) with the corresponding loud name. The ambitions of Vilnius can be judged by the following statement:

When GIPL is online, we expect to start exporting gas to Poland, similar to what we did in Finland. Potentially most of the gas will be LNG from Klaipeda port.

In addition to the Polish energy market, the Lithuanians are also counting on the Ukrainian one by reselling liquefied natural gas to Kiev. Here is such a "terrible revenge". But Vilnius's plans are being shattered by the harsh realities of intra-European competition.

The fact is that Poland itself expects to become a major regional gas hub, competing not only with small Lithuania, but with Germany itself. And Warsaw has already done a lot for this. An LNG terminal has been built in Swinoujscie, the capacity of which the Poles intend to increase by one and a half times, and it is also planned to build an even more powerful floating terminal in Gdansk. Long-term contracts have been signed for the supply of ideologically correct American LNG. Also, Warsaw will receive an additional 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Scandinavia through the Baltic Pipe under construction to replace the Russian one.

Importantly, the plans of the Polish leadership are fully consistent with the concept of uniting the Baltic energy market for gas - Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan in gas (BEMIP Gas). But for some reason the Lithuanian LNG terminal did not get into it. By the way, the tariff for pumping gas from Lithuania to Poland is 54% higher than in the opposite direction. Such interesting things are happening in the civilized Western world from senior partners to juniors. By and large, the GIPL is something like a scaled down Polish analogue of Nord Stream 2, through which Warsaw will gain access to the Baltic and Finnish markets by reselling surplus Norwegian and American gas. And there is no place for Lithuania in these plans.

In this context, the plans of Vilnius to "punish" Russia by taking away its share of the energy market evoke nothing but a bitter smile. Oh, the Balts have put on the wrong horse.
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  1. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 7 March 2021 12: 36
    ... through which Warsaw will gain access to the Baltic and Finnish markets, ...

    Finland receives cheap pipeline gas from Russia. Why would she drag some other gas, especially LNG, off the beaten track? She herself can share gas with the Balts. With its own margin, of course. Gas exchange with the Balts is well established. The basis for this is the Inčukalns UGS facility. The Lord rewarded Latvia with an awesome gift that was not deserving of merit. The Balts, Russia and the Finns hold certain gas reserves there. Gas reserves for Leningrad have been kept there since the days of the USSR. And now nothing has changed.
    How Poland is going to sell gas to the Balts is not clear.

    Also, Warsaw will receive an additional 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Scandinavia through the Baltic Pipe under construction to replace the Russian one.

    When, I wonder? So far I have not heard from reliable sources that the Poles have received permission to cross JV and JV2.
    When (and if) this pipe is laid down and launched, it can be used to pump Russian gas to Norway. The Norwegians will have no gas left for export. This is if our people allow the Poles to pump gas there. Rather, they will give this preference to Germany.
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 7 March 2021 12: 44
    I hope that the Russian proverb, in this case, will be to the point:

    Russians harness for a long time, but drive fast.

    To crush this Baltics economically, so that they would ask for mercy not on their knees, but immediately crawl to our knees with a "bare ass"! And this should be done right away, with all Russophobic regimes!
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 7 March 2021 13: 32
    Belarus redirected only part of the flow to the Russian ports and thus left the opportunity to bargain with all interested parties.
    For an increase in transit by 500 km. Belarus will have to pay Belarus, which multiplied by the volume of pumping will burden the budget and affect prices.
    If the costs of pumping are taken over by the Russian Federation, in the hope of creating the most powerful European oil hub in Ust-Luga and due to this to compensate for the costs of conditionally free pumping within the framework of the union state, then this is disputable.
    The main source of income for Belarus is potash derivatives, they go through the traditional route through the Baltic ports and this is also a subject of negotiations with interested parties.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 7 March 2021 13: 55
    He clearly pulled the owl over the globe.
    The old gas construction in the realities of the post-Belarus. And he announced it himself !! (not some kind of Lithuanian politician! but the author himself) terrible revenge!

    Thus, any pipe can be declared revenge on someone. They put a pipe to China - and this is France's revenge for her bad behavior ...
  5. RFR Offline RFR
    RFR (RFR) 7 March 2021 22: 00
    Well, the Labuses have already fought more than once, both with the railway, and with the LNG vessel ... And here they will fly like plywood ... And they, and psheki ...
  6. IMHO Offline IMHO
    IMHO (nikitoss) 8 March 2021 10: 07
    It's strange why they don't like us - Russians, because we are tolerant of all our neighbors: pshek, khokhlov, bulbash, gans, khacham, cross-eyed ... have not forgotten anyone? Maybe our neighbors are not bad, but something is wrong with us?
    1. GRF Offline GRF
      GRF 11 March 2021 12: 43
      Yes, yes, something is wrong with you, if you want to please everyone.

      Here is a sea of ​​young people swaying superbass,
      I am three hundred years old, I crawled out of the darkness.
      They stick out under the rave and powder their noses with something
      They are not like us.
      And I am not eager to climb into a strange monastery:
      I saw this life without embellishment ...

      If this is difficult, then think about a simple question: do psheks like hans, and how?
  7. Oder Offline Oder
    Oder (Wojciech) 8 March 2021 14: 19
    Gentlemen, do you really think that the Baltics cannot cope without Russia? After all, the USSR went bankrupt and therefore everyone ran away from you. The only Belarus stayed with you because she didn't know what to do with herself. In the 1970s, life was still alive, but then it only got worse: poverty, technological backwardness and food shortages. This was the case during your reign over our countries. We remember this and do not want repetition at any cost. Understand this. Don't you need our products? sorry because this is a big market, but if not you, we send all goods to China. We don't miss you. Are you for our products?
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 8 March 2021 17: 06
      Don't you need our products? sorry because this is a big market, but if not you, we send all goods to China.

      Not needed.
      Only wax dummies can be worse than your apples.
    2. GRF Offline GRF
      GRF 11 March 2021 13: 05
      Ask the Balts. Fortunately, they are on tour with you, you see, they do not know yet that there is work in their homeland: to derban the railway for scrap metal, and soon the ports will also go there ...
      And then it will be possible to forget about technological backwardness for sure, and begin to reign ourselves! And let others feed them, for example, your apples ...
    3. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 15 March 2021 13: 19
      How do you ship your apples to China, really by air?
    4. Olga Babak Offline Olga Babak
      Olga Babak (Olga Babak) 12 May 2021 19: 41
      And how are you going to get your products to China? You will have to drag them across three oceans. Well, how is the price and freshness? So naive, you again think that Russia will treasure you to China! Will you be allowed to roam through your seas, roads, or airspace? For some reason, all of you are sure that Russia always owes and owes you and at your first request. Look, used to how! Dream!
  8. Sergey A_2 Offline Sergey A_2
    Sergey A_2 (Siberian Yuzhanin) 9 March 2021 07: 35
    The bolts are burning, wet dreams! In what way or in what place will they teach us a lesson? Will they supply us with more sprats? Or will they sell their railway scrap to the outskirts? Unclear. Oh, this democracy, it is somehow infectious. They lived quietly, everything was, now there is nothing, not even the population, but everything is there, let's teach Russia a lesson.
  9. Andrey_Mart Offline Andrey_Mart
    Andrey_Mart ((Owl)) 12 March 2021 08: 11
    as they say for what they fought for and ran into .............
    Guys, they wanted to be INDEPENDENT - got ............ do what you want with her
    Guys, they wanted to get rid of the "freeloader" of Russia's big brother - got rid of it - now feed only yourself ---- how bad you are doing ....
    guys, you shouted that Russia does not allow you to develop - please - develop ..... -only you are developing imperceptibly ..............
    And this applies to everyone, EVERYONE who used to be in the USSR and now "have achieved the same independence" -
    Guys, as my friend's mother Tolik used to say - a pen in your hands for a flag ... and a fair wind ...
    Russia does not hinder anyone and does not teach you how to live correctly
  10. Aleksey2691 Offline Aleksey2691
    Aleksey2691 (Alexey) April 5 2021 07: 33
    In order to ensure energy independence, the Balts need to drill a well and fill up Russia with cheap gas.
  11. Sergey Novitsky Offline Sergey Novitsky
    Sergey Novitsky (Sergey Novitsky) April 17 2021 23: 51
    How can a flea that falls from its skin harm a bear?
  12. alex-sherbakov48 10 May 2021 08: 14
    Rather than going into Europe, which treats us like a pig, it is better to focus all attention on our country, our citizens, who still heat their stoves with wood in the outback, and several centuries ago. Our leadership needs to make sure that our people live comfortably and do not want to go anywhere !!!