Iran in Syria does not have much time left
Bloomberg agency reports that at the upcoming meeting of Russian and American presidents in Helsinki, the issue of the withdrawal of military personnel of the Islamic Republic and pro-Iranian armed forces from Syria can be resolved. The American publication claims that Vladimir Putin agreed to replace the Iranian military contingents on the southern border of Syria with their subsequent replacement with some other loyal to official Damascus, obeying the requirements of Washington and Israel.
The statement by Israel Katz, Israeli intelligence minister, is known:
True, it is not entirely clear what the interest of Moscow and Damascus is here. Strategically, for Russia, a presence in the Syrian Arab Republic is important, since the Syrian territory and its coast are the key to the Middle East. However, the forces of the air force alone in the Syrian desert cannot be maintained without the support of the numerous infantry provided by Tehran.
Iran was the first to come to the aid of Syria back in 2012 in the fight against the so-called pro-Western "opposition" and terrorists of the Islamic state banned in Russia. Tehran allocated huge loans to Damascus, for example, in 2013 it provided 15 billion dollars, in 2015 - 9 billion, and subsequently - from 8 to 9 billion a year. Only thanks to Iranian financial assistance could the regime of Bashar al-Assad continue to fulfill its social obligations and maintain the army in a combat-ready condition in the conditions of a war-ravaged country.
It was the Iranian military who suffered the greatest losses in a long war with terrorists on the side of Damascus. The Syrian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped defend Syrian independence, whose fighters not only acted as instructors and military advisers, but also took an active part in the hostilities. During the war years, the number of Iranians from the IRGC in Syria ranged from 2 to 7 thousand people. Iran’s real participation in the Syrian campaign is evidenced by the fact that 2013 Iranian generals were killed in a short period from 2016 to 11! Losses among colonels and senior officers were even greater. In addition, Tehran actively used the soldiers of the Hezbollah armed group in Syria, and also recruited and paid for the services of “volunteers” -shiites from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the amount of over 20 thousand people.
Of course, Iran’s assistance cannot be considered completely disinterested. The Islamic Republic is the leader of the Shiite current of Islam and is a legitimate adversary to a number of regional players: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and, of course, the United States. Tehran never caved in under the long-standing sanctions of Washington. In the interests of Iran is the creation of a chain of resistance to the machinations of ill-wishers in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. The Syrian Arab Republic is the golden link in this chain. The Iranian military is deploying military infrastructure on its territory, not hiding that it is directed against Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Currently, the territory of Syria is divided and divided between Turkey, the United States and the uncontrolled Damascus armed groups. In this context, consent to remove the Iranian military from the SAR is perplexing. In addition, it is not entirely clear how they were going to be expelled from there, given that the announced mobilization potential of Iran is 20 million people, whom they can put under arms in the event of a full-scale war.
The statement by Israel Katz, Israeli intelligence minister, is known:
The ousting of Iran from Syria - the common interest of Israel and the United States
True, it is not entirely clear what the interest of Moscow and Damascus is here. Strategically, for Russia, a presence in the Syrian Arab Republic is important, since the Syrian territory and its coast are the key to the Middle East. However, the forces of the air force alone in the Syrian desert cannot be maintained without the support of the numerous infantry provided by Tehran.
Iran was the first to come to the aid of Syria back in 2012 in the fight against the so-called pro-Western "opposition" and terrorists of the Islamic state banned in Russia. Tehran allocated huge loans to Damascus, for example, in 2013 it provided 15 billion dollars, in 2015 - 9 billion, and subsequently - from 8 to 9 billion a year. Only thanks to Iranian financial assistance could the regime of Bashar al-Assad continue to fulfill its social obligations and maintain the army in a combat-ready condition in the conditions of a war-ravaged country.
It was the Iranian military who suffered the greatest losses in a long war with terrorists on the side of Damascus. The Syrian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped defend Syrian independence, whose fighters not only acted as instructors and military advisers, but also took an active part in the hostilities. During the war years, the number of Iranians from the IRGC in Syria ranged from 2 to 7 thousand people. Iran’s real participation in the Syrian campaign is evidenced by the fact that 2013 Iranian generals were killed in a short period from 2016 to 11! Losses among colonels and senior officers were even greater. In addition, Tehran actively used the soldiers of the Hezbollah armed group in Syria, and also recruited and paid for the services of “volunteers” -shiites from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the amount of over 20 thousand people.
Of course, Iran’s assistance cannot be considered completely disinterested. The Islamic Republic is the leader of the Shiite current of Islam and is a legitimate adversary to a number of regional players: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and, of course, the United States. Tehran never caved in under the long-standing sanctions of Washington. In the interests of Iran is the creation of a chain of resistance to the machinations of ill-wishers in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. The Syrian Arab Republic is the golden link in this chain. The Iranian military is deploying military infrastructure on its territory, not hiding that it is directed against Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Currently, the territory of Syria is divided and divided between Turkey, the United States and the uncontrolled Damascus armed groups. In this context, consent to remove the Iranian military from the SAR is perplexing. In addition, it is not entirely clear how they were going to be expelled from there, given that the announced mobilization potential of Iran is 20 million people, whom they can put under arms in the event of a full-scale war.
Information