Expert: Relations between Russia and China will inevitably deteriorate

Expert: Relations between Russia and China will inevitably deteriorate

Forty years of unprecedented economic growth has turned the PRC into the second the economy planet and the largest consumer of energy. At the same time, Russian-Chinese relations can be compared with a marriage of convenience, the expert writes. "Carnegie Moscow Center" Edward Chow.


The expert notes that China could not saturate its rapidly growing economy with its own oil and gas production. Therefore, he began to actively import hydrocarbons. Moreover, most of the resources still come through channels that the Chinese do not control well. In this regard, Beijing is interested in diversifying the supply of energy raw materials, since 70% depends on their imports.

In turn, Moscow is interested in diversifying its energy exports. Russia shares a border with China and this contributes to the rapprochement of the two states. Both countries are causing concern in the West with their policies, which brings Russians and Chinese closer together.

Russia and China turned out to need each other. However, relations between the countries will inevitably begin to deteriorate after a while, when Beijing begins to abandon hydrocarbons. Then relations with Moscow will crack.

Western countries want to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. At the same time, Beijing aims to achieve a similar result by 2060. Now China is actively developing Technology, which are necessary for the transition to a new technological structure. As the world's largest electricity producer, China has advantages in the energy transition that even the United States did not have after World War II, when much of the planet was in ruins. Beijing wants to be the leader of a new global carbon-free economy.

On the contrary, Moscow is interested in the hydrocarbon era lasting as long as possible. The oil and gas sector not only plays an important role in the economy of the Russian Federation, but also allows Russia to occupy a place in the international arena that does not correspond to its "economic weight".

Today, the interests of Moscow and Beijing in the energy sector completely coincide, but in the long term they may diverge. After giving up hydrocarbons, China and Russia will have much less common interests. Moscow has little else to offer Beijing, so it needs to diversify and modernize its own economy.

But marriages of convenience can be stable, because over time, spouses get used to each other's annoying habits and achieve better understanding. Such marriages are especially strong when they have a common enemy - for example, the arrogant West.

Energy trade facilitates the development of bilateral relations and provides profits that can be directed to other areas. The role of oil and gas will gradually decline. But given the location of Russia's oil and gas fields, the main problem for Moscow is to protect its investments from turning into unprofitable projects in the future 10-20 years, the analyst summed up.
  • Used photos: gazprom.com
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  1. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
    Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 7 February 2021 19: 28
    +7
    Carnegie Moscow Center expert Edward Chow is delirious. He apparently has nothing in his head other than hydrocarbons.

    Even if China does not need hydrocarbons, why should this be the same as deteriorating China-Russia relations?

    So far, there seems to be a tendency that coal generation in China is increasing.
    First they need to get away from coal, then from gas. It will be very difficult for them to completely exclude "carbon" electricity. Even if green electricity quantitatively grows, overall consumption is likely to grow.

    It is likely that either production in China will grow, oriented towards the world market or towards its huge domestic Chinese. If the well-being of the Chinese grows, then this is also additional kilowatts: refrigerator, washing machine, air conditioner, lighting, El. Stove, etc. additional products and prom. All these goods need electricity.

    China's need for electricity will continue to grow, gas generation is likely to also, which means the need for gas, at least in the beginning it is necessary to move away from coal T.K. air pollution in megacities.
  2. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 7 February 2021 19: 33
    +9
    It is an ongoing campaign to rip apart Russia and China, to destroy them one by one. Experts provocateurs will try to throw such a g ... a lot. They will be supported by our fans of the USA and enemies of Russia.
  3. oderih Offline oderih
    oderih (Alex) 7 February 2021 20: 51
    +3
    In general, Russia is also on the way to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. Now about 30% of the budget. Our hydrocarbons can be processed domestically. This is what we are moving towards. The same is with forest chemistry. Here are the gas reserves in Russia for 300 years. And this is the main raw material. to obtain hydrogen .. So spanking your lips is not your business.
  4. Sergey Demin_2 Offline Sergey Demin_2
    Sergey Demin_2 (Sergey Dyomin) 7 February 2021 21: 08
    +3
    this "iksperd" should be driven from any decent company! The United States is doing everything possible to tie China to us - sanctions, military threat of provocation
    Regarding the new energy structure, let this nonsense shove it into your ass, oil coal, nuclear energy has been and will be, you cannot stupidly trample the laws of physics against them, and all this energy greenery was invented to bury the industry I do not know for what purpose, but it is
  5. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 7 February 2021 21: 36
    0
    At the same time, Russian-Chinese relations can be compared to a marriage of convenience, writes an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Edward Chow.

    Tady has a relationship with the United States with its "partners", this is a "sado-maso" brothel, roofed by cowboys-raketers and financed by the counterfeit "money" of the FRS pyramid. lol
  6. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 7 February 2021 22: 14
    -1
    All this is a trick that does not always work out. Not all dreams come true and this is more of a fantasy. Maybe the author knows what the weather will be like yesterday.
  7. Binder Offline Binder
    Binder (Miron) 8 February 2021 05: 37
    -3
    The "arrogant West" is not an enemy of China at all; for the Chinese, it is the main source of advanced technologies that they extract by hook or by crook, as well as the main buyer of Chinese products.
  8. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 8 February 2021 11: 02
    -2
    Expert: Relations between Russia and China will inevitably deteriorate

    - Eh, if only it really was ...

    Russia and China turned out to need each other. However, relations between the countries will inevitably begin to deteriorate after a while, when Beijing begins to abandon hydrocarbons. Then relations with Moscow will crack.

    - Yes, these cracks are like potholes ... - and if Russia would not constantly gloss over these “potholes” with its compliance and servility (at its own expense); then these cracks would long ago have turned into impassable ravines ...
    - And Beijing will never "give up hydrocarbons" to Russia (the author is wrong) ... - as long as they are gratuitous for him ... - China sets the prices for them ... and carries out the payment with all sorts of nasty things ... - this concerns the Chinese products (poison produced and grown on the basis of components unacceptable for such production ... - up to fragments taken from animal burial grounds, storages of unprocessed feces and other all kinds of rotten meat); as well as the supply of a variety of handicrafts that do not stand up to any "environmental criticism" (take at least children's toys) ...

    Today, the interests of Moscow and Beijing in the energy sector completely coincide, but in the long term they may diverge. After giving up hydrocarbons, China and Russia will have much less common interests.

    - It is that Beijing and Moscow have the same interests, and what does Moscow have from such cooperation ...
    - Personally, I'm in the subject:

    Washington will take advantage of China's three weaknesses to curb its global ambitions

    - I already wrote that

    - China has Russia; Russia, which is "ready for anything" for China ... - "ready for anything" and does not require any "reliable partnership" from China; no special "legal and economic subordination" addressed to itself ... - China will always take from Russia everything it needs (even take out "illegal timber"), and for Russian gas it will set its own price and force Russia to supply in such volumes and in such a gas supply mode ... - which is beneficial to him; despite the conditions that are officially indicated in the agreements concluded between Russia and China ... - And, if we take just an elementary manifestation of decency; even here China is "not up to par" with respect to Russia ... - China easily and simply supports the sanctions against Russia, which the United States constantly imposes on Russia ... - to the detriment of Russia itself ...
    - To everything that has been said, it should be added that Russia will simply lay down on the bones, but rush to defend China in whatever "d ... mo" this China does not get into ...
    - So the "main vulnerability" for China ... is Russia ... - There will be no Russia ... and China's skiff ...

    - That's all the "benefit of Moscow" ... from cooperation with China ...
  9. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 February 2021 11: 31
    +3
    Taiwan is a sore spot for China, so one can rather imagine a war for Taiwan and the deterioration of China's relations with the United States and the company than with the Russian Federation.
  10. _AMUHb_ Offline _AMUHb_
    _AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 8 February 2021 16: 47
    +2
    Oil is not fuel. You can also heat with banknotes

    Dr. Mendeleev.
    "hicks" always talk about the heavy "burden of wealth" for Russia))
    1. Dear sofa expert. 9 February 2021 02: 50
      +1
      The heavy burden of Russia's wealth

      Cool quote .. need to be adopted!)
  11. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 9 February 2021 11: 26
    +1
    Sino-Russian relations can be compared to a marriage of convenience

    Are there other "marriages" in interstate relations?

    most of the resources still come through channels that the Chinese do not control well

    This poorly controlled channel is the Persian Gulf.
    The United States can block it at any time, and the Strait of Malacca is the most vulnerable spot.
    The possibility of such a development of events requires the PRC to build up convoy forces and military bases throughout the transportation of oil and gas resources from the Persian Gulf, which the PRC is doing - it builds warships and creates military bases.
    The United States perceives this as a threat to its dominance, shipping and national interests, playing up to India and playing it off against the PRC.
    The only reliable and not controlled by the United States channel for the supply of energy resources to the PRC remains the Russian Federation, and this is a long-term factor in good relations between the RF and the PRC, which, again, is perceived by the United States as a potential threat.

    want to achieve carbon neutrality

    Thermonuclear, hydrogen, neutrino and other exotic energy sources have not left the experimental stage, and energy is needed today and in large quantities.
    Nuclear energy is associated with the processing and storage of waste, a potential threat, accidents with nuclear reactors are countless.
    Carbon neutrality as independence from the supply of carbon raw materials is impossible due to the needs of the chemical, automotive, agricultural and all other industries. This does not mean abandoning oil and gas raw materials, but a possible reduction in demand, and that is doubtful, given the rate of population growth and its needs.
  12. Wladimir molendor (Wladimir Molendor) 10 February 2021 22: 49
    0
    Calling a spade a spade, the former USSR returned China's sovereignty. Of course, there are always difficult relationships between neighbors, but common sense always comes to the fore. I would like to remind the author that even in the most difficult times for Russia today, China has never complicated the situation and has not tried, as the countries of the European Union and the United States, to destroy Russia as a state.
  13. Sergey Pedenko Offline Sergey Pedenko
    Sergey Pedenko (Sergey Pedenko) 14 February 2021 15: 55
    0
    strange - is hydrocarbons only energy? it is rubber, plastic, fertilizers, even medicine ///