As you know, victory has many parents, but defeat is always an orphan. Two months after the end of the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh, many people are trying to find answers to the question of why Armenia lost it miserably. And one "miracle weapon" in the person of Turkish-Israeli UAVs cannot explain this.
Undoubtedly, the attack drones made a significant contribution to the victory of the Azerbaijani army, destroying Armenian armored vehicles, missile and artillery positions, and command personnel. However, this factor alone cannot explain the defeat of Yerevan and Stepanakert.
At first, it is unclear why the military intelligence looked aside, despite the fact that the first exacerbations on the border began in the summer of 2020, and the Armenian top leadership was so sure that there would be no war?
Secondlywhy didn't Armenia, despite the disastrous situation at the front, carry out a full-fledged mobilization, and the most trained and efficient units remained in the rear until the signing of the act of surrender (armistice)? Why did the highest command personnel demonstrate helplessness, not transferring timely reinforcements to the collapsed Southern Front from the Northern? Why did not Shusha become a key city for the defense of the Nagorno-Karabakh capital Stepanakert?
Thirdly, why didn't Yerevan worry in advance about the means of countering attack UAVs, which had already shown their effectiveness in Syria and Libya? The fact that Baku was buying them from Turkey and Israel was not a big military secret.
There are still a lot of unpleasant questions, over which unpleasant answers suggest themselves. The first explanation is the simplest and most on the surface: there is a blatant incompetence of Nikol Pashinyan's team, which came to power through the “street”. A weak leader who rested on the laurels of his ancestors could easily lead his country to military defeat and humiliating surrender. If so, the Armenian people must draw their own organizational conclusions.
The second explanation lies in the area of conspiracy theories. According to this theory, Prime Minister Pashinyan, as a politician with a pro-Western orientation, the so-called "little weed", could deliberately "drain" Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Despite the seeming absurdity of such an assumption, it has quite realistic grounds. The defeat of Stepanakert literally knocked the ground out from under the feet of the so-called "Karabakh clan", an extremely influential force in Armenia, where политическая fight. In addition, a solution to the Karabakh issue in favor of Azerbaijan would help improve Yerevan's relations with the West. Nikol Pashinyan was not able to voluntarily surrender the unrecognized republic, but its loss as a result of a military defeat is another matter. True, he very seriously lost his popularity, but he is still in power.
If, we emphasize, if this is true, then Prime Minister Pashinyan shot himself in both feet at once. As a result of the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia will receive a serious blow to its the economy, since now control over the region's largest gold ore Sotk deposit will go to Azerbaijan. The reserves of the precious metal in it are estimated at 120 tons, 24% of its territory belongs to Armenia, the remaining 76% to Azerbaijan. The ore is processed at the Ararat gold recovery factory. Delivery is carried out by the South Caucasian railway, giving up to 55% of its load. Following the war in 1993, the Kelbajar region of Azerbaijan, where the field is located, came under the control of the Armenians.
Everything changed after November 9, 2020. Already on November 25, the Azerbaijani military entered the territory of the mine and politely asked its workers to leave the territory, on the 27th they were forced to leave it. This company, GeoProMining, by the way, is Russian, it is 98,51% owned by the entrepreneur Roman Trotsenko, one of Igor Sechin's associates. The importance of GeoProMining's work in Nagorno-Karabakh is difficult to overestimate, since it was the fourth largest taxpayer in the country.
Now, apparently, another company will take its place. Let us recall that the contract for the development of the field, over which Baku actually did not have control, was signed in advance in 1997 with RV Investment Group Services LLS. It is 51% owned by the Azerbaijani side and 49% by the American side. Now another mining company, Anglo Asian Mining, has made claims for the Karabakh gold. Interestingly, its top manager (Non-Executive Director) and co-owner is John Sununu, a prominent member of the US Democratic Party, who at one time was the governor of New Hampshire and the head of the White House under George W. Bush.
An interesting coincidence, isn't it? But this sometimes happens when pro-Western politicians come to power in the post-Soviet space.