Will Russia recognize Donbass in 2021, and what to expect from Ukraine


We continue to analyze the events of the past days and build forecasts for the future. More precisely, for 2021. Today we will talk about the pain points of the Russian Federation and the sphere of its interests. Specifically about the Middle East and Ukraine. Naturally, we will also discuss the prospects for Donbass.


Active defense. Near East. Ukraine


The Middle East and Ukraine have become the spheres of our vital interests. Why I have combined them together, it will become clear after reading this material.

Again, nothing personal, this is just an objective reality that the world is faced with in the 21st century. The harsh reality, alas, is that the conduct of hostilities outside their borders, in a remote theater of operations, for all regional countries, not to mention world powers, should be viewed not as aggression, but as defense. Defense at distant approaches. In the BV in the SAR, everyone is on the defensive - Shiite Iran is defending itself from the Sunni Gulf countries (this is a confrontation on a religious basis, it is forever); Turkey is defending itself against the threat of creating a Kurdish state on its borders, which, with a quarter of its own Kurdish population, is quite understandable; Israel is also preemptively bombing Syria in its own interests, destroying pro-Iranian proxy groups and Hezbollah units that are trying, with the support of Iran, to create an enclave of confrontation with Israel on the territory of the SAR; world powers, all except China, are also solving their problems there. The only losing side in this situation is only Syria. Let us sympathize with her.

Do you want such a fate for the Russian Federation? Then it was necessary to solve the problem with Ukraine on its territory, and better on the territory of its puppeteer. But the puppeteer will never allow the latter, so it would be an ideal task for us to bind the enemy forces in a remote theater of operations, and even fighting with someone else's hands. This is what the Americans wanted to achieve in Ukraine, dragging us into a conflict with it, while at the same time fighting with the hands of Ukrainians. We missed the X moment to prevent this in the spring of 2014. Further, the situation through our fault acquired a protracted character and it will only get worse, and the decision on its aggravation or not aggravation will be taken, by no means, Kiev. This is the worst outcome for us, to live under the constant threat of confrontation with our closest neighbor, and even close to us by blood, despite the fact that we have no levers of pressure on him. But the United States can always use this lever, but for now even the hypothetical probability of this has already become for them an element of pressure and bargaining with us. This is the worst result, and there is no way out of it yet.

Kiev and Washington understand that modern Ukraine is a toxic asset for us. Capturing it is like bringing a neighbor's bucket of sewage into your house. President Zelensky dreams of military campaigns in Crimea and Donbass, and Poroshenko announced the start of the war in September 2021. Fine! They will go on the offensive, we will carry out an operation to enforce peace according to the Serbian scenario, where instead of Belgrade there will be Kiev, and instead of NATO, the RF Armed Forces. But this is not our scenario. We are waiting for the self-destruction of Ukraine. Why the Kremlin chose this scenario, I do not know. From my point of view, this is a utopia!

You are waiting for the disintegration and fragmentation of Ukraine under the weight of the growing economic problems? Wait! Somalia has been rotting and falling apart for 30 years. And it will continue to rot, poisoning all the space around, so what? The economic problems of Ukraine will affect only the downtrodden, disenfranchised and without the right to vote, the population of this underemployed, its curators from Washington do not care about it, as well as the Russian Federation. I hope there are no naive dreamers here who believe in fables about the "Russian world" and the fraternal people, which we will not give offense? These are all fairy tales for internal use, in real life the director of the Russian Federation must and will solve the problems of the Russian Federation, and let the president elected by the Ukrainians solve the problems of Ukraine. If they have no choice, then this is their problem, and the director of the Russian Federation does not care about them, just like the Americans! To deal with your problems! Therefore, this abscess will fester for a long time.

Everything that I have written here above, as a citizen of this underemployed, it is very sad for me to write, but it's all true, bitter, cruel, but true! I don't expect aggravation on this front in 2021, but it's sad that in this situation nothing depends on us. Everything will be decided by Washington. And these are the inevitable consequences of one fatal mistake that we made in the spring of 2014.

A bloody favor. Donbass


"Nobody wanted war, the war was inevitable! .. Russia should not allow this kind of scenario to develop!" - said not so long ago Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference following a meeting of the Council on Foreign and Defense policy.

If you say that the question is ripe, then it means nothing to say - it is overripe. And overripe for another six years. I'm talking about the bleeding wound of Donbass. For seven years people have been there at the turn of the fire. Seven years between heaven and earth, impaired by their own country and not accepted by the example of Crimea by the Russian Federation. I will not be here to discuss here whether Russia did the right thing then or not, whether they sacrificed enough lives and shed blood to earn this right, or not enough, and how this all affected the international image of the Russian Federation. I will only say that all this has been going on for seven years, the Great Patriotic War has already ended during this time, then during this period we liberated not only our lands seized by the Nazis, but also cleared half of Europe of Hitler's scum and the Far East from Japanese invaders. And here we can’t cope with the Papuan regime and its poorly armed, underpowered army, mired in corruption and theft, fighting with the help of large-barreled artillery and mortars with its own civilian population, which has the audacity not to recognize the junta that came on blood.

It is clear that without our help they would not have survived. It is clear that it cost us nothing to defeat this flock of thugs and end our campaign in Lvov. It is clear that the Kremlin was then guided by other considerations, trying to return all of Ukraine under its control through the Donbass. And it is clear that we did not succeed. It is also clear that all this did not save us from external sanctions, but brought confusion and confusion into the souls of Russians who did not understand and did not approve of such a maneuver by the Kremlin. Those. The Kremlin has lost twice - both on the internal and external perimeter, and everyone (both on the external and internal tracks), holding their breath, are still waiting for what it will do next? I think that in 2021 this issue will be closed by the recognition of the Russian Federation of the independent status of Donbass. While on the rights of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. We are deleting Ukraine from the list of contenders for Donbass. And let the Armed Forces try to "shoot" in their direction just once, this is where the statehood of Ukraine will end.

Ukraine has already crossed all red lines. No one in the Kremlin harbors any illusions about its young president. Over the past year and a half, the light version of Poroshenko, represented by the comedian Zelensky, has proved its own worthlessness, since the levers of influence on her remained in the same Uncle Samov's hands, which means that it's time for the Kremlin to raise rates, since it will still have to bargain not with the clown, but with its new / old owners from overseas.
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  1. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 14 January 2021 07: 21
    -2
    The meaning of the article in a short and capacious phrase: our foreign policy is in full swing. And all the grandiose successes of our Director are an empty phrase. For 20 years, all the former Soviet republics have been profiled. It's sad.
    1. 123 Online 123
      123 (123) 14 January 2021 07: 45
      +2
      For 20 years, all the former Soviet republics have been profiled.

      Were they ours? What are the differences in the situation, say 25 years ago?
      1. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
        Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 14 January 2021 08: 04
        +2
        In my opinion, they were never ours. We wanted to consider them "ours", but they wanted us to think so, otherwise they would not have seen a freebie from our side. Since despite the collapse of the USSR, all the "fraternal" republics believed that we should continue to support them as under the USSR, only they did not owe us anything.
        1. 123 Online 123
          123 (123) 14 January 2021 09: 09
          +2
          In my opinion, they were never ours.

          Then what have we missed? And is the thesis about the failure of foreign policy so true?

          We wanted to consider them "ours", but they wanted us to think so, otherwise they would not have seen a freebie from our side. Since despite the collapse of the USSR, all the "fraternal" republics believed that we should continue to support them as under the USSR, only they did not owe us anything.

          I'm not sure that it was we who wanted to consider them ours more than us. Although, there is a rational grain in these words. In the republics, as a rule, there is an opinion that they are smithies, health resorts, sprats and so on. Everyone was sure that their "tangerines" were the most important and they were all so important, necessary and hardworking to feed the neighbors. They almost do it a favor that they live with us. Disproportions in provision, investment, living standards, and so on were taken for granted. This was mainly done at the expense of Russia, including the transfer of territories.
          Probably they thought that they would separate and now they would heal. But the harsh reality gradually puts everything in its place.
          It is difficult to change everything, the opinion of people is not decisive in this matter. Local "elites" are not interested in this. They enjoy being the general manager of a stall more than being the chief of a shop in a huge enterprise. The position sounds more magnificent, freedom of action and no responsibility, there is no bosses. Therefore, it is probably not entirely fair to load everything on Lavrov's shoulders.
          1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
            Volkonsky (Wolf) 14 January 2021 11: 07
            0
            this text was torn into 4 parts, since long texts are not read here, this is the 3rd part, the 1st here - https://topcor.ru/18141-globalnaja-politika-v-2021-chego-zhdat-ot- nastupivshego-goda.html. The 2nd and 4th haven't come out yet. The answer to your question - what for all these fragments of the former empire of Russia - in the 4th part. Wait, I can only say that all this is needed for the survival of Russia itself as a self-sufficient state
            1. 123 Online 123
              123 (123) 14 January 2021 11: 26
              +2
              Did I say that these fragments of Russia are not needed? I tried to explain how and why this happened. Apparently it didn't work out very well. However, it is not surprising, the topic is complex and extensive, one or two sentences cannot tell much.
          2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 14 January 2021 14: 08
            +1
            In the 70s he visited Tbilisi, Kiev, Vilnius, Tallinn, Riga. Catering and grocery stores amid Moscow supermarkets really impressed ...
            1. 123 Online 123
              123 (123) 14 January 2021 14: 24
              +2
              In the 70s he visited Tbilisi, Kiev, Vilnius, Tallinn, Riga. Catering and grocery stores amid Moscow supermarkets really impressed ...

              In those years I didn't have a chance to visit because it was "designed" a little later, but I have a general idea of ​​the difference yes I don’t know how in Moscow, in our provinces trips of more than a hundred kilometers to buy sausage were not considered supernatural.
              1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 14 January 2021 15: 48
                +1
                I am only sharing what I have passed through. Classes at the university ended, I burst into the canteen, I liked it. I worked hard in the reading room, went to the gym for volleyball training (I played for the university team). I got home in an hour. A pack of dumplings (I remember the price, 35 kopecks), a cup of milk, all in the bone - there is no time better than youth ... !!!
                1. 123 Online 123
                  123 (123) 14 January 2021 16: 06
                  +2
                  there is no better time than youth ... !!!

                  That's for sure. Everything else is secondary, just decorations. It is not so important what and how much it costs and what you wear.
    2. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
      Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 14 January 2021 08: 51
      0
      The meaning of such comments is in a short and capacious phrase: - Chief! AllPrapalo!
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 14 January 2021 08: 14
    -4
    Somalia has been rotting and falling apart for 30 years.

    Our government is only capable of stealing! Having recognized the Donbass, it will have to be restored, which means spending money. And this is not part of the plans of Putin and the government. Therefore, while Putin "rules" the process will go on forever !!
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 14 January 2021 08: 31
      -1
      Is there a country capable of restoring Ukraine? There are only ten million pensioners there. There are no fools for this. Recognition of Donbass in its current form is the automatic shutdown of water, gas and electricity. It is powered by Ukrainians. And there are many questions about the population.
  3. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 January 2021 09: 26
    +3
    It is high time to return Donbass and similar regions to the Russian Federation, and to clear the Russian Federation of all kinds of Russophobes by deporting them from the Russian Federation, like the Germans from Kaliningrad.
    1. Uneven Offline Uneven
      Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 14 January 2021 10: 50
      -6
      Gold words! And the "cleansing" should begin with an inhabitant of the Kremlin.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 January 2021 15: 52
        +3
        From people like you, living in Russia, and Russia and its indigenous population hating. We are not obliged to tolerate people like you on our land.
        1. Uneven Offline Uneven
          Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 14 January 2021 17: 39
          -4
          1) Unlike some, I see a chasm between the interests of Russia and the actions of its current leaders.
          2) Russia is hated by people like you, because you are on the side of its destroyers.
          1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 January 2021 18: 23
            +3
            The return of the Russian lands temporarily occupied by the beast sick of Russophobia and his expulsion from the territory of Russia is the interest of Russia and its indigenous population. You, Bandera people, do not like this, but these are your problems.
            1. Uneven Offline Uneven
              Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 14 January 2021 18: 29
              -5
              Ukraine has been lost! Only "thanks" to the Russian authorities. Against this background, Crimea alone does not matter.
              1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 January 2021 20: 56
                +2
                It was Ukraine that lost Russia and Crimea and will soon lose a lot more. Russia will not take you out of the Polish shed anymore and you will soon have to get out of the temporarily occupied lands of Russia VON!
                1. Uneven Offline Uneven
                  Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 14 January 2021 21: 46
                  -3
                  1) The main reason for all of Russia's losses is the limited and / or anti-Russian actions of its current government.
                  2) Russians and Ukrainians are one people. The fact that it was managed to be divided along territorial lines and made enemies is entirely on the conscience of the current government of Russia.
                  1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 January 2021 21: 54
                    +2
                    1) The main problem of Russia is that it still considers you people, although it is high time to judge you by your bestial actions.
                    2) We are not one people, you are up to the Russians, as to the moon, from that you are mad. Your Russophobia is a consequence of your inferiority, because you have turned the flourishing republic received from Russia into an uncleaned stable. Blame Yushchenko for your problems and the bad heredity of Mazepa's descendants. By the way, do you know that there are no Cossacks in Ukraine? Zaporozhye Cossacks, except for a handful of Swedish-Turkish lackeys Mazepa did not go under the Turks and moved to the Kuban, mixing with the Kuban Cossacks, after one of the few wars Russia lost to Turkey. You are the descendants of slaves and your destiny is always to six: then the Turks, then the Swedes, then the Poles, then the Austrians, then the Hungarians, then the Germans. You are hereditary slaves, and today you are driving the USA You cannot live freely, like born sixes.
                    1. Uneven Offline Uneven
                      Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 14 January 2021 22: 09
                      -4
                      Do you understand that you actually blame your people, since everything you said is absolutely true for all Slavs living in Russia? How exactly do you distinguish a Ukrainian from a Russian living on the territory of the Russian Federation? Or does your attitude towards people depend on what territory they live in? Or where were you born?
                      By the way, did you manage to see the "Wagnerians" in the case? You probably also justify them, since they are not Ukrainians?
                      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 January 2021 22: 13
                        +3
                        Russia did not swear allegiance to a dozen countries and did not betray everyone to whom it swore allegiance. This is the difference between us. Self-respecting people swear allegiance once, in contrast to the priestesses of love, your Ukraine and those like you. Your soul is rotten, you are immediately visible.
                      2. Uneven Offline Uneven
                        Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 14 January 2021 22: 18
                        -4
                        Do you recall at least recent history, when Russia was betrayed by all the CMEA countries, Cuba, Afghanistan, etc.? There was so much in History ... But this does not at all negate the fact that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. It is IMPOSSIBLE to divide them according to nationality! Only territorially and politically.
                      3. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 January 2021 22: 32
                        +2
                        Have we betrayed Afghanistan? We left in Afghanistan a bunch of power plants and other things built there for our money. The fact that the locals cannot live with dignity on their land is not our problem ... I can say the same about others. By the way, when in the 90s there were problems in Russia, not a single Cuba sent my family even a biscuit, although it could, in gratitude for what the USSR did to them, including with the money of my parents.
                      4. The comment was deleted.
                      5. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 15 January 2021 12: 55
                        0
                        Every drunk in our country now considers himself an expert, but I think that Russia wasted its money on Afghanistan and other parasites. We must take the example of the United States, which gives people like you a little feed once a year, but milk them daily and in full.
  • Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 14 January 2021 10: 27
    +4
    At the BV in the SAR, everyone is on the defensive

    BV problems will not be resolved in the foreseeable future and have every chance of escalating into a global war with the use of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.

    it was necessary to solve the problem with Ukraine on its territory

    At the anniversary of MGIMO, it was announced that Ukraine is a priority direction of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. For the failure of this priority direction, it was not the head of the foreign policy department that responded, but the Russian ambassador to Ukraine.
    Ukraine's problems are an internal affair of Ukraine, this is the official position of the Russian Federation.
    Having common roots and history, the task of the Russian Federation is to preserve them, and they can only be preserved through common and mutually beneficial trade and economic interests. How this is implemented in practice can be judged by the example of the union state of Russia and Belarus.

    the Americans wanted to reach Ukraine, dragging us into a conflict with it, while fighting with the hands of Ukrainians

    Well, why should the US members themselves get involved in the conflict, if you can do everything with someone else's hands and make money on it?
    It is only in the Russian Federation that true true friendship is above all, and in the West, national interests are above all. Everything costs money, including friendship, after the restoration of capitalism, this is gradually beginning to be understood in the Russian Federation.

    we have no leverage on him. But the United States can always use this lever.

    The main lever of pressure is the economy, the action of which everyone feels on his own pocket and this US lever is incomparable with the RF one in scale and efficiency.

    We are waiting for the self-destruction of Ukraine

    Are you waiting for the collapse and fragmentation of Ukraine under the weight of growing economic problems? Wait!

    I think that in 2021 this issue will be closed by the recognition of the Russian Federation of the independent status of Donbass

    Recognition of the independence of the DPR-LPR is tantamount to declaring war on Ukraine, since The DPR-LPR adopted a law on their borders within the framework of the administrative-territorial division, and then they will liberate Mariupol and all the territories of the DPR-LPR controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    It was necessary to decide earlier, when the DPR-LPR held referendums and turned to the Russian Federation with a request to be admitted to the Russian Federation in full accordance with the Crimean algorithm, but there was no response from the Russian Federation to this.
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  • HOMUT1430 Offline HOMUT1430
    HOMUT1430 17 January 2021 20: 03
    0
    of course, donbass is ours. ours live, our own. and the earlier it joins the Russian Federation, the better. but in the 14th there was no question in the referendum on joining Russia. and it is not known what our government would do. Donbass will be with Russia .I believe.