Will Kazakhstan become a new “Anti-Russia”?
Today it is difficult not to notice the drift of Kazakhstan towards the USA and the West. The decision to translate the Kazakh language into Latin, the refusal to support Russia's position on the Syrian issue, cooperation with the United States to provide a transport corridor to Afghanistan are all links in one chain. Maybe everything goes to the fact that Kazakhstan will follow the Ukrainian path and become the next "Anti-Russia"?
That would be a big blow to us. After all, the leadership and population of this country always seemed friendly. And then suddenly from this side there is a direct threat to Russia's security. If Kazakhstan becomes involved in the orbit of US interests, NATO forces may appear in the immediate vicinity of the Lower Volga, Urals and Siberia.
Russians in Kazakhstan
In order to assess the prospects and threats to Russia from Kazakhstan, it is necessary to understand a little bit about the processes taking place in this country since it gained independence.
And independence fell on Kazakhstan, like snow on its head. Yesterday, the center was in Moscow, and then suddenly - self-government. It so happened that the creators of Kazakh statehood were largely Russians living in the republic. At the sunset of the USSR, they occupied high posts and positions, performed skilled work.
For the new national elite, the situation where the Russians often occupied a higher position in the country than the Kazakhs was unacceptable. And the point is not in nationalism, although he was present. Imagine that in France the Germans would hold key posts. This may be the first step to losing sovereignty.
The Russians began to face the negativity and leave, because it even came to the threat of life.
But then another problem arose. The Russians who left had not been replaced by anyone. Not enough local national cadres. Nazarbayev noticed the problem before it became rampant and took measures to stop the mass emigration of Russians.
Today in Kazakhstan there are many of our compatriots who have become patriots of their country. Although they feel Russian, they love their small homeland. Now there are many mixed families, some Russians have mastered the Kazakh language. They do not feel like strangers even in the conditions of the rise of Kazakh national identity.
Kazakhstan between three lights
The importance of Kazakhstan in geopolitics lies in its geographical position. It is located at the junction of Russia, Central Asia, China and Iran. This includes him in the sphere of interests of three world centers of power at once - Russia, China and the USA.
It would seem, where does the United States? After all, they are far from Kazakhstan. The secret is that the capital of the Kazakhstani elite is stored in the United States. Trump's freeze of 22 Kazakh billion dollars was palpable for this country.
In addition, the US is a counterweight to economic expansion of China. Kazakhstan does not count on Russia as such a counterweight. Hence all these steps towards the United States.
If we analyze the rapprochement with the United States, Kazakhstan did not provide anything substantial to the Americans. But on the other hand, he received leverage for petty blackmail of Russia and China. Like, if you don’t meet us, we will turn to the USA.
It should also be understood that Kazakhstan is not ready to go as far as Ukraine did, having created Anti-Russia.
In fact, surrendering the country to the Americans is hardly part of Nazarbayev’s plans. This will worsen Kazakhstan’s relations with China, which will see Kazakhstan as an American bridgehead against it. Russia can take it the same way.
And this threatens Kazakhstan with serious economic troubles.
China may impose economic sanctions, and the Chinese presence in the Kazakh economy is quite tangible.
With Russia, things could be even worse. About 80% of the transit of Kazakhstani supplies passes through our country. And in the trade turnover, Russia occupies a prominent place. The main export article of Kazakhstan is raw materials. Kazakh industry is tied to Russian. The termination of cooperation is capable of "burying" several sectors of Kazakhstan at once. And in the event of a deterioration in relations with Russia, a serious increase in import duties on Kazakhstani goods will be inevitable. Moreover, not only from Russia, but also from other EAEU countries.
All this makes Kazakhstan loyal to Russia. And all these complex zigzags of Nazarbayev are skillful maneuvering between the three superpowers. Their goal is to maximize the benefits for Kazakhstan from its unique geographical location.
That would be a big blow to us. After all, the leadership and population of this country always seemed friendly. And then suddenly from this side there is a direct threat to Russia's security. If Kazakhstan becomes involved in the orbit of US interests, NATO forces may appear in the immediate vicinity of the Lower Volga, Urals and Siberia.
Russians in Kazakhstan
In order to assess the prospects and threats to Russia from Kazakhstan, it is necessary to understand a little bit about the processes taking place in this country since it gained independence.
And independence fell on Kazakhstan, like snow on its head. Yesterday, the center was in Moscow, and then suddenly - self-government. It so happened that the creators of Kazakh statehood were largely Russians living in the republic. At the sunset of the USSR, they occupied high posts and positions, performed skilled work.
For the new national elite, the situation where the Russians often occupied a higher position in the country than the Kazakhs was unacceptable. And the point is not in nationalism, although he was present. Imagine that in France the Germans would hold key posts. This may be the first step to losing sovereignty.
The Russians began to face the negativity and leave, because it even came to the threat of life.
But then another problem arose. The Russians who left had not been replaced by anyone. Not enough local national cadres. Nazarbayev noticed the problem before it became rampant and took measures to stop the mass emigration of Russians.
Today in Kazakhstan there are many of our compatriots who have become patriots of their country. Although they feel Russian, they love their small homeland. Now there are many mixed families, some Russians have mastered the Kazakh language. They do not feel like strangers even in the conditions of the rise of Kazakh national identity.
Kazakhstan between three lights
The importance of Kazakhstan in geopolitics lies in its geographical position. It is located at the junction of Russia, Central Asia, China and Iran. This includes him in the sphere of interests of three world centers of power at once - Russia, China and the USA.
It would seem, where does the United States? After all, they are far from Kazakhstan. The secret is that the capital of the Kazakhstani elite is stored in the United States. Trump's freeze of 22 Kazakh billion dollars was palpable for this country.
In addition, the US is a counterweight to economic expansion of China. Kazakhstan does not count on Russia as such a counterweight. Hence all these steps towards the United States.
If we analyze the rapprochement with the United States, Kazakhstan did not provide anything substantial to the Americans. But on the other hand, he received leverage for petty blackmail of Russia and China. Like, if you don’t meet us, we will turn to the USA.
It should also be understood that Kazakhstan is not ready to go as far as Ukraine did, having created Anti-Russia.
In fact, surrendering the country to the Americans is hardly part of Nazarbayev’s plans. This will worsen Kazakhstan’s relations with China, which will see Kazakhstan as an American bridgehead against it. Russia can take it the same way.
And this threatens Kazakhstan with serious economic troubles.
China may impose economic sanctions, and the Chinese presence in the Kazakh economy is quite tangible.
With Russia, things could be even worse. About 80% of the transit of Kazakhstani supplies passes through our country. And in the trade turnover, Russia occupies a prominent place. The main export article of Kazakhstan is raw materials. Kazakh industry is tied to Russian. The termination of cooperation is capable of "burying" several sectors of Kazakhstan at once. And in the event of a deterioration in relations with Russia, a serious increase in import duties on Kazakhstani goods will be inevitable. Moreover, not only from Russia, but also from other EAEU countries.
All this makes Kazakhstan loyal to Russia. And all these complex zigzags of Nazarbayev are skillful maneuvering between the three superpowers. Their goal is to maximize the benefits for Kazakhstan from its unique geographical location.
Information