"Victory" parade in Baku: was there a victory?

The pompous military parade, which took place on December 10 in the capital of Azerbaijan, was timed by the country's leaders to the unambiguously advantageous end of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Or rather, its next round ... This event, no doubt, was planned as a demonstration of the strength and might of the Azerbaijani army, as well as its indestructible "military cooperation" with "fraternal" Turkey.

However, this, without a doubt, an impressive action resulted in something completely different. Both some of the circumstances of the Baku parade, and the words spoken at it, allow not only to doubt the coming of peace in the Caucasus, but also make one think: was there really a victory?

"It was smooth on paper ..."

As you know, war is just a continuation policy by other means. And if this is so, then it should be recognized that the political processes that led to the armed conflict, in 9 cases out of 10, do not end at all at the moment when the fighting stops. Everything continues, and at the same time events may develop in the future in a completely different way, as the jubilant victors saw it. There are countless examples of this and I will not list them, limiting myself to a statement of fact. After the signing on November 10 in Moscow of an agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus, a certain new reality was created. As a matter of fact, it was for this reason that Baku and Ankara started the whole business. Another question is, to what extent does the end result coincide with the original intentions of the strategists there? It can be assumed that not completely.

Apparently, when giving the order to attack, the leaders in both Baku and Ankara pursued much more ambitious and ambitious goals. Aliyev dreamed of the complete seizure of the entire Nagorno-Karabakh, and not just the "security belt" around it and some other territories that have now come under Azerbaijani control. The result of the “small victorious war” was probably not a truce, but the complete and unconditional surrender of Yerevan and the corresponding documents were to be signed on the ruins of Stepanakert, and certainly not in Moscow. “Free Artsakh” was to disappear without a trace, and not survive, albeit in a fairly truncated form, as it actually happened. What is absolutely certain - the appearance on these lands of a Russian military outpost and a fair number of peacekeeping contingent was absolutely not envisaged in any case.

This fact is especially unpleasant even not so much for Ilham Aliyev, who has never been a noted Russophobe, and, apparently, has not turned into him despite all the efforts of his “friends”, as for Recep Erdogan. This new-born "sultan" certainly did not dream of the appearance of the Russian flag over Nagorno-Karabakh. On the contrary, for him the “maximum program” in the planned war was precisely the weakening of its role in the Caucasus as a whole. It was conceived, in principle, not bad - using the example of Armenia to clearly demonstrate to everyone "the uselessness of military alliances with Moscow."

Apparently (and this version is confirmed by information from some Azerbaijani sources), the whole case was planned as a decisive blitzkrieg, which was to be done in a week. Maximum - 10 days. During this short period of time, the Azerbaijani regular units, with the support of the mercenaries provided by Turkey, had to swiftly attack not only the defense of the NKR and Armenian troops, but also capture key positions for the capture of Stepanakert. Ideally, capture it completely. Russia simply did not have time to intervene. However, the stubborn resistance of the defenders of Artsakh turned the "lightning war" into bloody battles, during which Azerbaijan, according to official data, lost 2783 people killed. Among his servicemen, there are more than one and a half thousand who received serious injuries.

Agree, this doesn’t make you want to “walk in the mountains”. Again, Moscow has shown sufficient firmness and persuasiveness in the negotiations, having managed to force Baku to stop a truly successful offensive literally at the gates of the NKR capital. Well, the introduction of our peacekeepers there was the most unpleasant surprise for Erdogan of all. It turned out that by paving the way to the heart of the Caucasus for himself, he cleared the way there for the Russians, whom he would like to see as guarantors of the ceasefire less than anyone else ...

Who lost more - Baku or Yerevan?

A strange question, you might say. After all, it is clear that the Armenian side was the loser - it is not for nothing that the current situation in the country is perceived as a military disaster and a national shame. That is so, but let's turn to the details, which, as you know, are the essence. Let's start with the fact that de jure Yerevan did not lose anything at all - after all, the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, according to international agreements, never belonged to it and could not belong to it. They did not dare to recognize Artsakh as an independent republic, or to announce its annexation (as Russia did with Crimea). Losses in people (also making up an impressive figure of 2.3 thousand people) and technology... Well, that's what war and war are for. On the other hand, the Armenian side received, albeit an extremely painful, but more than timely lesson on how to and how not to prepare for armed conflicts. And the point here is not at all in the "outdated Soviet and Russian weapons", because of which Yerevan allegedly suffered defeat.

Such nonsense is written only by those domestic "patriots" who heart-rejoicing in any situation in which their wretched and evil minds manage to discern "defeat" or, moreover, "humiliation" of Russia. Outgoing with enthusiasm for the "broken and burnt Russian military equipment" demonstrated at the parade on December 10, Mr. Nevzorov and his ilk prefer to keep silent about something. Specifically - that in the ranks of the sort of victorious Azerbaijani troops was the same Russian (as an option - Belarusian) equipment. Here are just modernized, updated and equipped with trained crews. The Karabakh conflict was won not by "Turkish and Israeli UAVs", as some are trying to assert, but by the excellent training of the troops, who, unlike the Armenians, were preparing not for a "remake" of the 1992-1994 battles, but for modern warfare.

There are reasons to believe that Armenia will draw the right conclusions from their own defeat, and this is precisely the moment that is extremely unpleasant for Baku and Ankara. In this situation, the next time, things may turn out completely differently. And as for the notorious Turkish drones, which some "experts" have already appointed to the role of "wunderwaffe", as well as advisers and mercenaries from this country ... Will not the price of all this be great for Azerbaijan? Really, the parade, at which Recep Erdogan was present not as an honored guest, but as the owner of the new province of the Ottoman Empire he was reviving, and the number of Turkish soldiers marching in Baku was equal to the number of local soldiers marching in parade, suggests just such thoughts. Painfully, everything that is happening with Azerbaijan today looks like the final loss of independence and state sovereignty. And this is much worse than the loss of several mountainous regions of the "unrecognized republic" ...

I will not even try to argue with those analysts who assert that "Yerevan's involvement with Moscow will now increase significantly." However, relations between the countries are still allied. But the situation with Ankara and Baku is more like the beginning of the takeover ... The current (as, indeed, any) Turkish leader never does anything "just like that." It may happen that Azerbaijan will have to pay for its assistance in Nagorno-Karabakh by participating in military conflicts, which their Turkish "brothers" are stirring up almost all over the world today. In this case, the number of Azerbaijanis who died for the great-power ambitions of Ankara can very quickly exceed the number of those who gave their lives for the "return of the original lands." And this is just one of the consequences - the most obvious, literally lying on the surface.

For our country, for example, another aspect is much more alarming - those bellicose, aggressive statements that were made at the parade on December 10 by both Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders. Ilham Aliyev allowed himself to call Sevan, Zangezur and even Yerevan “primordial Azerbaijani lands”, announcing that they were “illegally occupied by Armenians”! Recep Erdogan went even further, beginning to read verses from the rostrum, in which they talked about "the occupied Azerbaijani lands south of the Araks." The Turkish leader's craving for beauty was immediately appreciated in Tehran - the Turkish ambassador was summoned to the local Foreign Ministry, to whom it was explained in detail that they did not intend to put up with either "territorial claims" (even if they were expressed in a rhymed form), and even more so with "Militant imperial expansionism" of Ankara. As you can see, the Turkish side believes that nothing is over yet and continues to push the Azerbaijani side to further adventures, despite the fact that this time it will definitely have to deal with the Russian army. Real winners don't act like that ...

By the way, the "poetic" incident with Iran perfectly illustrates the "viability" of Erdogan's ideas and humbly repeated by Aliyev about a "new format of cooperation" in the Caucasus region, which, in addition to Turkey and Azerbaijan, would also include Russia, Iran and Georgia. Well, and Armenia, but only if it "realizes and corrects." It is already clear what the Iranian side has about the Turks. In turn, Tbilisi declared that they would not sit down at any negotiating table if there was a place for the Russians behind it. In general, the "new format", as one old anecdote says, "died without being born" ... However, the reaction to the Turkish-Azerbaijani demarche followed from a rather unexpected side - from the United States. The statements about “new platforms” and the desire to “resolve the affairs of the region in a narrow circle” were quite rightly perceived there as a manifestation of Erdogan's desire to “rule” the Caucasus without any regard to the West, including his own NATO partners. And almost on the same day as they sounded, Washington started talking about the imposition of sanctions against Ankara, which can be announced literally "any day." The reason is the purchase by Turkey of the Russian S-400 air defense systems, which took place far from yesterday. The reason is clearly the excessively increased "independence" of Erdogan and his excessively growing appetites.

Baku can hold parades and broadcast about its "historical victory" as much as it wants. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is just a link in a chain of much more complex and large-scale processes. Time will tell who will ultimately be the winner and who will be the loser.
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 14 December 2020 15: 04
    The author is disingenuous, Azerbaijan defeated the pro-Armenian forces and imposed peace on the terms of a winner. The author did not identify the main thing in this conflict as the assertion of the Turkish-Iranian-Russian influence and mutual agreements in this region as an independent force, in the complete absence of the influence of the US and the EU ... the Middle East theater ... Conclusion: the US and its ally EU (NATO) influence will weaken, which means new redistributions on the agenda ...
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 December 2020 15: 30
    A bunch of false lies.
    Who and when spoke about the blitzkrieg?
    Who and when spoke about the complete capture of Nagorno-Karabakh?
    Who proposed to introduce peacekeepers in early October?
    If the author calls for a new war, then this is his own business. But in the Caucasus, it was the world who did it. And if Armenia tries to take revenge, then it is Russia that will restrain it.

    The author did not notice one significant detail. Special representatives of the OSCE Minsk Group from the United States and France rushed to Baku. A literal quote from Ilham Aliyev "I did not invite you. If you have something to say, say it. Otherwise, you can leave." They left. The President of Azerbaijan did not accept them. They managed to talk with the Minister of Foreign Affairs. They were informed and they flew away. They did not promise to return. This is the main thing. RETURNED NOT PROMISED.

    A simple thought does not come to mind? I have been repeating since the beginning of October. Russia needs peace and the absence of foreign influence in at least one direction. And Azerbaijan provided this peace. With the tacit consent of the Kremlin. Azerbaijan has solved its problems completely and even with a small bonus. This is a complete victory. Moscow solved its problems completely and got a base in the center of the South Caucasus. Iran is pleased because its northern direction has become safe (how many fabrications have been made about American airfields in Azerbaijan). Turkey is happy because its eternal enemy is in a deplorable state. Plus they ground a bunch of militants from Kurdistan (they fought on the side of Armenia). There is one losing country. But she is offered help. If he does not want to, he will be an outcast.
    1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 14 December 2020 16: 05
      Quote: Bakht
      I have been repeating since the beginning of October. Russia needs peace and the absence of foreign influence in at least one direction. And Azerbaijan provided this peace.

      Doesn't it count Turkish influence? And I'm not sure that for the Russian Federation, Turkish influence (or Chinese) is preferable to European or American.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 December 2020 16: 14
        What is "Turkish influence"?
        1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
          Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 14 December 2020 16: 29
          In Azerbaijan?
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 December 2020 16: 40
            Did you ask about Azerbaijan?
            I do not understand the question. Turkey never left Azerbaijan. For the last 20-25 years, Turkey has been in Azerbaijan. Turkish lyceums, students in Turkey, soldiers in Turkish schools, joint maneuvers, Turkish instructors in military schools in Azerbaijan. Give me at least one point, what changed after the war? Everything remained as it was. Have Turkish bases or troops appeared in the South Caucasus? How is "Turkish influence" manifested?
            Another point is why Russia should be concerned about "Turkish" or "Chinese" influence? Russia is working closely enough with the Turkish military in Syria and I do not see why they cannot work together anywhere in the world. But if you see an enemy in Turkey, then there will be much more problems. Although Israel (and the West) will surely like it.
            1. Binder Offline Binder
              Binder (Miron) 14 December 2020 17: 34
              Quote: Bakht
              But if you see an enemy in Turkey, then there will be much more problems. Although Israel (and the West) will surely like it.

              Why should Israel like it? Let me remind you that before Erdogan came to power in Turkey, Israel had very friendly relations with Turkey. There was close cooperation between the two states in the field of defense, exchange of intelligence, joint military maneuvers, etc. And it was not at all at the initiative of the Israelis that these ties were interrupted today. However, the Erdogans come and go, but the peoples continue to live, so everything is fixable ...
            2. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
              Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 14 December 2020 23: 40
              Quote: Bakht
              I have been repeating since the beginning of October. Russia needs peace and the absence of foreign influence in at least one direction. And Azerbaijan provided this peace.

              I probably didn't understand something. Is there no foreign (Turkish) influence in the Caucasus in general and in Azerbaijan in particular?
              1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 15 December 2020 11: 51
                Again. What does "Turkish influence" mean? Political, military, cultural?
                Azerbaijan's policy does not depend on Turkey's influence. We may have common goals or interests. But this does not mean at all that Ankara determines the political course of Baku.
                We have mutually beneficial military cooperation. But exactly the same cooperation with Russia. Perhaps even with Russia in dollar terms a lot more.
                Culturally, the two peoples are close. Turkish and Azerbaijani languages ​​are not identical, but close. In any case, you can understand without an interpreter. The religion is slightly different (Shiism and Sunni). But there were Sunni mosques in Azerbaijan before.
                Turkey has always supported Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict. Like Pakistan, by the way. During the war, there were many flags of Pakistan in Baku. As well as Israel and Russia. Israeli weapons also helped a lot. Does this mean that the "Israeli influence" has increased in Azerbaijan?
                Once again, what changed after the war? The influence of Turkey has remained as it was. It hasn't changed at all.

                But why should this worry Moscow? Azerbaijan is not an enemy of Russia. At this stage, Turkey and Russia interact in many directions. Military, economic, cultural. And the political too. The truth here does not suit many. But these are their personal problems. You can mold an enemy from Turkey. But no one wants to calculate the consequences for Russia.
              2. Bitter Offline Bitter
                Bitter 16 December 2020 13: 05
                ... there is no foreign (Turkish) influence?

                Except that

                For the last 20-25 years, Turkey has been in Azerbaijan. Turkish lyceums, students in Turkey, soldiers in Turkish schools, joint maneuvers, Turkish instructors in military schools in Azerbaijan.

                In turn, Azerbaijani institutions in Turkey, military advisers and instructors in Turkish institutions also everywhere teach Turks various crafts and share their experience.
                In general, Turkey has absolutely no influence on Azerbaijan and certainly cannot, well, just not a drop. This can be seen with the naked eye.
    2. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
      ODRAP (Alexey) 15 December 2020 13: 15
      You see, not only you know everything about foreign countries, and the plans of their leaders ... laughing
  3. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 14 December 2020 15: 49
    So a bunch of articles around - the victory of Russia. With explanations to those who do not understand

    So what have Baku, Yerevan, Ankara? to pound again in a mortar
  4. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
    ODRAP (Alexey) 15 December 2020 13: 13
    The author is instantly guessed by the style ... laughing
    As usual, he knows exactly the plans of Aliyev and Erdogan.
    The simple rule "you know how to count to ten, stop at seven" () he did not hear.
    This is about the liberation of ALL Karabakh.
  5. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 23 December 2020 15: 53
    I don't understand one thing. In the early 1920s, the Nakhichevan region was created, inhabited by Azerbaijanis, as part of the AzSSR. At the same time, N. Karabakh region, inhabited by Armenians, but for some reason not part of the ARSSR. After all, everything is similar, there is an exclave, here is an exclave. Who has any considerations?
  6. Alik Epstein Offline Alik Epstein
    Alik Epstein (Alik Epstein) 3 January 2021 01: 23
    Author, you can't (know how) write, don't write. You need to read and analyze more. No need to pull the facts by the ears. There were exactly 2783 participants in the parade from the Turkish side, which was equal to the number of those killed in the war. It was symbolic.