"Blockade of Kaliningrad". Why the Ministry of Defense is strengthening the grouping in the exclave


The RF Ministry of Defense continues to strengthen the Kaliningrad region. Next year, a new motorized rifle division will appear in this territorial exclave in response to NATO demonstration exercises near Russian borders. But is that really what we should be afraid of?


The Kaliningrad region represents one third of the former East Prussia, which became part of the USSR as a result of the Second World War, the remaining two thirds of it then went to Poland as compensation for the aggression from the Third Reich. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the declaration of independence by the Baltic states and Belarus, Kaliningrad was cut off from the rest of the Russian Federation. Today it is our westernmost frontier, where the Baltic Fleet is based and the Iskander-M missile system is located, capable of covering targets in NATO countries with missiles. Any military conflict between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia will begin with the elimination of this exclave in the rear. The only question is how to do it.

It is believed that in the event of war, NATO will first try to destroy the powerful air defense system and missile systems "Iskander-M", as well as disable the ships of the Baltic Fleet, equipped with cruise missiles "Caliber". Recently, the Pentagon transparently hinted that this could be done by covertly deploying HIMARS MLRS to Poland and Lithuania. The experience of the war in the Middle East and in Nagorno-Karabakh has shown that Israeli and Turkish-made strike UAVs, as well as loitering ammunition, will be very effective. After a preemptive strike, bomber aviation will join, which is to demolish the remnants of the military infrastructure of Kaliningrad, and then NATO troops deployed in Germany, Poland and the Baltic will be involved. All this sounds unpleasant, but quite realistic, but there is one "but".

Domestic military experts, in response, quite rightly point out that the attack on Kaliningrad is an aggression against our entire country. Our contingent, which will now be reinforced by motorized riflemen, will have the task of holding out while the Russian military makes their way to the besieged through Belarus and the Suwalki corridor. The Kaliningrad Oblast itself can also hit hard if the Iskander-Ms deployed there are equipped with tactical nuclear warheads. And this is also true.

But everything is a little more complicated than we would like. Taking into account the above, it is necessary to understand that NATO's aggression against Kaliningrad, if ever really takes place, will be of a hybrid nature. Unfortunately, the West is very good at using the internal problems of its opponents against themselves. For example, the presidential elections in Belarus, with their extremely ambiguous results, have been held a long time ago, but mass protests have not subsided to this day.

What if already in Russia in 2024 on the streets of Kaliningrad, impaled by Western propagandists, disagreements with the results of the future presidential elections, which will be supported by the authorities of neighboring countries, come out en masse? President Lukashenko crushed protests with force, but European partners could threaten the Kremlin with harsh economic sanctions on joint projects, if he decides to repeat this experience. The NATO military will then take the exclave into a blockade in order to avoid a military scenario and will look in the eyes of the world community not as aggressors, but as champions of democracy. To beat them with nuclear weapons is somehow not handy.

We are not talking about annexation, but if the West has agents of its interests in the Kaliningrad region, they can demand that the Kremlin grant the exclave a special, demilitarized status to ensure harmonious relations with its European neighbors. Is such a scenario possible? Let's just say its probability is nonzero.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 3 December 2020 13: 40
    +6
    but, if in the Kaliningrad region the West has agents of its interests

    - Is there an FSB in the Kaliningrad region? Does the law on foreign agents work?
    1. Wanderer039 Offline Wanderer039
      Wanderer039 3 December 2020 19: 08
      +3
      Unfortunately, in the Russian Federation, even Article 280 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation does not work, according to which not a single patient with Russophobia has yet been imprisoned who has lured the coast. VVP all the time wants to be good for foreign countries, and only thinks about how they will look at it there, from here and legs grow. Unfortunately, he doesn't care much about the way they look at him in the Russian Federation, otherwise he would not raise the retirement age and do a lot of other rot
  2. 123 Online 123
    123 (123) 3 December 2020 13: 58
    +6
    Another fantasy about how someone will threaten us with something, and of course we will not do anything because this will entail financial losses. The region of the Russian Federation is taken into the blockade and Russia thinks who will look like in the eyes of the world community?
    Do you want me to offer you another scenario?
    You and your wife are walking, a group of "comrades" comes up, insolently pawing her and then simply taking her with them. And you stand still, they work at the bank, they won't get a loan, and in general, you are afraid to spoil your credit history.
    Is such a scenario possible? Let's just say its probability is nonzero.
    Do you want to talk about this topic? smile
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 3 December 2020 15: 01
    +3
    "Blockade of Kaliningrad". Why the Ministry of Defense is strengthening the grouping in the exclave

    It is necessary to openly notify the whole world to the Western "friends" who have become stupid in the anti-Russian frenzy that any attempts to blockade the Kaliningrad province, the Baltic or Black Sea fleets, the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic or Nagorno-Karabakh will be perceived as a declaration of war, followed by a nuclear missile a blow by the Russian Federation to all NATO member states and their allies, because without the approval of the United States, no one will take responsibility for the blockade of the Russian troops wherever they are and no matter what they do.
    1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
      Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 3 December 2020 16: 41
      +3
      We must respond to the unprovoked aggression of the United States and NATO as N.S. Khrushchev did at the UN General Assembly and EunSeongKim, and do not hesitate to use force and be ready to use it.
  4. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 3 December 2020 15: 23
    +1
    Kaliningrad is already being squeezed out by "soft power", various communities of Konigsberg, etc., at the level of an almost open border with Poland, Lithuania, and so on ... They will bring it to a special international status. Here is Vladivostok under pressure from both the Japanese and the Chinese ... The connivance and incomprehensible actions of the Kremlin prisoners have already taken away all the former republics of the USSR, now enemies are being taken for the outskirts of Russia,
    1. Boa kaa Offline Boa kaa
      Boa kaa (Alexander) 3 December 2020 22: 09
      -1
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      different communities of Konigsberg and so on, at the level of an almost open border with Poland, Lithuania, etc.

      What is this nonsense? What are these "communities"? The Germans are more likely to eat pshek than to contact Russia. Therefore, the priesthood pretends to be Uncle Sam and prepares to have fun ...
      And here in KOR everything is sifted through a fine sieve, and all evil spirits with a liberal-cosmopolitan bias are already in places not so distant ... The 90s have passed, the frenzy of "democracy" too.
      About the boundaries. So, as the Lithuanian border guards mock Kaliningraders - you still need to look. Poles, they are more loyal, but it is also not a mistake to sneer at the trunks ... So what kind of "open" borders are we talking about? Maybe something was confused with the Wild East?
      And here in the West - everything is grown-up, the border is locked, and on both sides.
      AHA.
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 3 December 2020 22: 37
        +1
        You are "sculpting" something gag, Kaliningraders traveled to Poland and Lithuania every day, even for purchases (before the coronavirus) ... The Germans create different circles of friends of Kant, Goethe and others ... But the Germans will not get involved with Russia, make friends will be with Kaliningraders, rebuild the grave of Kant and the cathedral and so on for their own money ... That the Germans are not friends with the Poles, it does not interfere with both in hybrid actions in the Russian Federation, especially when the United States supports ... You will take a closer look ...
        1. Boa kaa Offline Boa kaa
          Boa kaa (Alexander) 3 December 2020 22: 55
          -2
          Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
          Kaliningraders traveled to Poland and Lithuania every day, even for purchases (before the coronavirus).

          You are definitely not a Kaliningradian, since you have such an opinion. For a long time, no one travels with simplified pass cards. They are canceled.

          Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
          The Germans create different circles of friends of Kant, Goethe and others ... But the Germans will not get involved with Russia, they will make friends with Kaliningraders,

          You have two mistakes at once.
          1. Not circles, but the Society of Russian-German friendship, and no revanchist inclinations. Former residents bring their grandchildren, show where they used to live. The former are renovating their houses at their own expense so that the Russians are not ashamed to live in them, and to show their relatives too.
          2. It turns out that Kaliningraders are not Russians ... Kaliningraders are more Russians than natal outskirts (I will not point a finger, so as not to offend citizens) Then, there are much more military here than somewhere in the middle lane. And they know for sure that there will be no evacuation and the "Brest Fortress" begins in the basement of their house. Therefore - not offset!
          Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
          rebuild the grave of Kant and the cathedral

          It has long been rebuilt. Come take a look. There is something.

          Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
          Take a closer look ...

          This is how I have been "peering" for almost 35 years, mainly on the operational maps used to be, and now - during walks ... Therefore, we do not need to learn to love the Motherland, for we are like that landing on Malaya Zemlya - take a step back. Just forward ... to the English Channel!
          And then, to Gibraltar, you yourself are like a thread without us. We just don't have enough gasoline and diesel fuel. bully
          1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 December 2020 14: 57
            -1
            I will not overpersuade, just look at the contingent from Russia and the West. Europe migrates to Kaliningrad, entirely Germans and other non-Russians with all further consequences ...
  5. Wanderer039 Offline Wanderer039
    Wanderer039 3 December 2020 19: 03
    +4
    The blockade of Kaliningrad is a declaration of war on the Russian Federation. So everything will depend on who will sit in the chair of the President of the Russian Federation at the time of aggression against the Russian Federation, a man, or a rotten, snotty, venal something that, after the NATO drain of Kaliningrad in the Kremlin, will not sit for long, and the lifespan of such a (miracle ) will be questionable.
  6. argo44 Offline argo44
    argo44 (mac) 4 December 2020 05: 46
    0
    Do you know anything about this:

    Lithuanian deputy:

    The time of Kaliningrad has passed. Kaliningrad was not given to Russia forever in Potsdam or Helsinki. It was said: we will transfer control to the USSR until now, until the final peace agreement in Europe is signed.

    I am worried that the Germans are undermining our (Poles') right to re-established territories in western Poland.

    https://pl.sputniknews.com/swiat/201701304715096-Litwa-Rosja-Sejm-Sputnik/
    1. Bakht Online Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 December 2020 13: 24
      +2
      Where do such statements come from all the time? This sounds especially funny from Lithuania.

      Konigsberg was transferred to the USSR not temporarily, but forever. This has been repeatedly confirmed by Germany itself. 1970, 1975 and 1991. According to all these documents, Kaliningrad belongs to the USSR (Russia). A Lithuanian deputy can chat whatever he wants.

      Announcement of the Berlin Conference of the Three Powers
      2 1945 of August

      VI.

      The city of Königsberg and the surrounding area

      The conference considered the proposal of the Soviet Government that, pending the final solution of territorial issues in a peaceful settlement, the part of the western border of the USSR adjacent to the Baltic Sea would run from a point on the eastern coast of the Danzig Bay to the east - north of Braunsberg - Goldap to the junction of the borders of Lithuania, the Polish Republic and the Eastern Prussia.

      The Conference agreed in principle with the proposal of the Soviet Government to transfer to the Soviet Union the city of Konigsberg and the surrounding area, as described above. However, the exact boundary is subject to expert scrutiny.

      Treaty between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Federal Republic of Germany
      Entered into force on March 15, 1991.

      Article 3

      In accordance with the goals and principles set out above, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Federal Republic of Germany are united in their recognition that peace in Europe can only be preserved if no one encroaches on modern borders.

      They commit themselves to scrupulously respecting the territorial integrity of all states in Europe within their present borders.

      They declare that they do not have any territorial claims against anyone and will not put forward such claims in the future.

      They regard as inviolable now and in the future the borders of all states in Europe as they pass on the day of the signing of this Treaty, including the Oder-Neisse line, which is the western border of the Polish People's Republic, and the border between the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic.

      By the way, Germany did not conclude such an agreement with Poland
      Final Settlement Treaty for Germany
      Entered into force on March 15, 1991

      A united Germany includes the territories of the German Democratic Republic, the Federal Republic of Germany and all of Berlin.
      Its external borders finally became the borders of the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany that existed at that time, which means that the united Germany does not have any territorial claims to other states and will not put forward such claims in the future.

      And the Helsinki Agreements, of course.

      Do you know anything about this?
      1. argo44 Offline argo44
        argo44 (mac) 6 December 2020 16: 35
        0
        Polish Wroclaw is not the legal successor of German Breslau - joachim gauck

        https://maciejsynak.blogspot.com/2016/09/przeszosc-jeszcze-sie-definitywnie-nie.html
        1. Bakht Online Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 December 2020 16: 45
          +1
          Germans have a slightly different opinion

          von Frankfurt nach Breslau
          von Frankfurt nach Danzig

          https://www.lufthansa.com/xx/de/fluege/flug-frankfurt-breslau
        2. Bakht Online Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 December 2020 16: 49
          +1
          It is necessary to give the full text

          "Polski Wrocław nie jest prawnym następcą niemieckiego Breslau, a mimo to czuje się w coraz większym stopniu zobowiązany do zachowania niemieckiego dziedzictwa"- pochwalił Gauck.

          “Polish Wroclaw is not the legal successor of the German Breslau, and yet it feels more and more obliged to preserve their German heritage", - praised Gauk.
          1. argo44 Offline argo44
            argo44 (mac) 6 December 2020 23: 47
            0
            What you feel doesn't matter, what matters is that the highest German official speaks up on legal issues.
            1. Bakht Online Bakht
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 7 December 2020 12: 04
              +2
              What you write doesn't matter either. Because the top German official spoke out quite unambiguously

              Polish Wroclaw is OBLIGED to preserve the German heritage.

              And the quite official structure of Germany (Lufthansa) believes that there are cities of Poznan and Danzig.

              There is one more point to which you should pay attention. The German President also allowed an ambiguity. What means

              is not a successor

              I would explain this as what the German president considers Poznan to be a German city. Such an interpretation does not occur to you?
  7. Volga073 Offline Volga073
    Volga073 (MIKLE) 5 December 2020 21: 49
    0
    The FSB must sometimes work in its own way, and not just protect private traders.