The death of the Russian economic model approached by 10 years


The collapse of modern economic Russia's model based on the export of hydrocarbons may occur even before 2050, when Europe intends to completely eliminate the use of fossil fuels. By 2040, the oil and gas market of the Old World will shrink at least twice, and the remaining players will become much closer to it. What then awaits our country, whose federal budget mainly depends on the receipt of oil and gas dollars?


The fact that this is not idle speculation and journalistic "horror stories", Confirmed Leonid Fedun, co-owner, top manager and part-time co-owner of the oil company Lukoil. According to him, a radical reduction in Russia's hydrocarbon exports to Europe is inevitable:

It's unavoidable. The European oil market will shrink and may halve by 2040, according to the EU forecast.

The forecasts of the European Union are based on the realities of the so-called "Green Deal", a global initiative aimed at creating a "carbon-neutral space" in the EU by 2050, in other words, abandoning the use of fossil hydrocarbon fuels: oil, gas, coal, etc. Instead, a large-scale introduction of renewable energy sources is planned, on the supply of equipment for which the German industry expects to earn. As the costs of European producers will inevitably rise, Brussels will compensate them with a so-called “carbon tax” for foreign suppliers and manufacturers wishing to work in the EU market.

For Russia, these are extremely bad news... First, most of our exports are hydrocarbon raw materials, and the European Union is its largest buyer. Secondly, our industrial products will also be subject to this new tax due to the extremely weak development of green energy in Russia. And what is left to do?

First of all, it should be noted that EU plans and the emergence of new "green" of technologies have already had a major impact on the investment plans of domestic oilmen. So, according to Fedun, his company Lukoil refused to build an oil and gas chemical complex. The reason is simple: Previously produced plastic can now be recycled many times instead of littering landfills and oceans. This will lead to a decrease in world demand for oil in volumes from 3 to 5 million barrels per day.

So, in 20 years, the European oil market will shrink by half, and competition will intensify. Where will Russia sell its "black gold"? Experts believe that the losses will have to be compensated for by expanding exports to Asia and other emerging markets that cannot afford to experiment with greening. This will require expanding the capacity of the pipeline leading from Eastern Europe to the Pacific Ocean. Oil from the Caucasus and the Volga region will be exported by sea through Novorossiysk.

With gas, everything is much more complicated. If, or rather, when its consumption in Europe decreases, it will have to somehow reorient its export flows. It is possible, of course, to build another pipeline connecting the West Siberian fields with China, but the economic feasibility of such a project raises serious doubts. There is an option to invest in the construction of LNG plants and export terminals. Such projects already exist, but they require subsidies from the state and benefits.

Do not forget that all modern policy The US aims to firmly tie Gazprom to Ukrainian transit by closing its detour routes. Later, at any time, the valve on the pipe can be closed, for example, in the event of a full-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the unrecognized republics of Donbass, to which Russia will have to somehow react in order to avoid image political losses. For a military response to Ukraine, Washington and Kiev will punish the Kremlin by blocking transit, which will lead to a rapid rise in gas prices, increasing the profitability of American LNG exporters in the European market.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that in growing markets Russia will have to fight with other energy suppliers, and China, the main player in the Asia-Pacific region, is itself interested in a program of gradual “decarbonization” of its economy. There is something to think about, right?
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  1. white gentleman Offline white gentleman
    white gentleman (Ivan) 27 November 2020 18: 37
    +2
    Nothing! Electronics will be exported to the EU .. there are different mobile phones with microcircuits, processors, computers and chips, household appliances, cars .. but at least prostitutes, finally!
    1. passing by Offline passing by
      passing by (passing by) 27 November 2020 19: 03
      -3
      Since the borders with dill are closed, are we exporting Ukrainian prostitutes not to their homeland but to Germany? laughing
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 28 November 2020 00: 17
      +1
      The mass production of sophisticated household appliances will soon turn into an economic bomb under the countries where it is located.
    3. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 28 November 2020 01: 21
      -1
      Nothing! Electronics will be exported to the EU .. there are different mobile phones with microcircuits, processors, computers and chips, household appliances, cars .. but at least prostitutes, finally!

      Are you going to send Belarusian girls to the panel? belay The women's march was it a rehearsal of sending to work on foot? So the Zmagar grin was bared. sad By the way, do the girls know? smile As for electronics, of course there are problems, but in Russia they are still less, especially your vaunted IT cluster, which by the way scatters like cockroaches from a sneaker.
    4. Alexey Ivanov Offline Alexey Ivanov
      Alexey Ivanov (Aleksey Ivanov) 28 November 2020 05: 43
      0
      15 to the degree of 128 = 346482384157094052184125178763389910734176393900
      956081649855025164014124153383005393700309333434209191671757175
      379231806194392189052899091182801387520, (150 characters)
      a (5 to the power (5 to the 5th power)) == 2185 characters long.
      this is multiplication, or unfolding, or "decompression" (compression is the reverse process) .... as anyone ...
      then there is a return route ...
      This is MEMORY.
      + CPU type SUBLEQ or TTA (transport triggered architecture) with one rewrite command from place to place (copying from ADDRESS to ADDRESS) and one auxiliary command - jump N steps forward (backward) when the condition is met.

      Let's do...

      i.e. the CPU is a read-write device from memory to memory (the simplest CPU)

      http://gerigeri.uw.hu/DawnOS/

      Quote: "Other computer architectures are extremely complicated, but SUBLEQ is easy to understand, easy to emulate or implement as a native hardware. This platform not have interrupts, MMU, TLB, paging, protected mode, or even registers - its just as simply as you think it is. "

      Let's do...
    5. The comment was deleted.
  2. zloybond Offline zloybond
    zloybond (steppenwolf) 27 November 2020 19: 51
    +1
    sheer delirium. The most elementary thing I see is their Army. navy, civilian navy, construction equipment switches to batteries ...
  3. Elena Ushkova Offline Elena Ushkova
    Elena Ushkova (Elena Ushkova) 27 November 2020 20: 00
    +2
    And why is nothing said about the fact that Russia is working on a new promising hydrogen fuel for Europe? Oh, these all-fenders. 20 years and whine and whine.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 28 November 2020 08: 16
      -5
      About this has already been written many times. The problem with Russia's "promising" hydrogen is that it is not "green", and Europe needs just that.
      P.S. and you, madam, judging by the presentation, moved here from Comte, am I not mistaken?
      1. Elena Ushkova Offline Elena Ushkova
        Elena Ushkova (Elena Ushkova) 29 November 2020 17: 58
        +1
        And what's the difference where. I rarely visit Conte.

        Europe plans to switch to completely environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel
        The European Commission has presented a three-phase plan that by 2050 should lead Europe to the production of hydrogen fuel, created only from renewable energy sources. A successful transition to clean hydrogen could lead to a revolution in energy.
    2. DeGreen Offline DeGreen
      DeGreen 28 November 2020 10: 09
      0
      Such as this ... the author, sitting in the West, very happily predict the collapse of Russia. But, as a rule, they die without waiting. Remember, at least Berezovsky. That too, every year promised the collapse of Russia
  4. Dmitry S. Offline Dmitry S.
    Dmitry S. (Dmitry Sanin) 27 November 2020 20: 36
    +3
    And from what plastics and composites are going to be made? Cars can be run on batteries, but how do you make plastic from wind or sunlight? What is decarbonization?
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 November 2020 21: 14
    0
    But Putin also said that they were able to, the share of oil and gas exports is declining greatly, so worry ...

    Now, if China introduces cold fusion, then yes, kapets ...
    1. pvlshvz Offline pvlshvz
      pvlshvz (Paul) 28 November 2020 01: 21
      +1
      And if the Americans come up with a time machine, then generally a fairy tale. Bredyatina. If the grandmother had the sexual characteristics of the grandfather, she would be the grandfather.
  6. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 28 November 2020 00: 15
    +5
    There is no Russian model of the economy.
    Until 1992 there were two models in the world, American and Soviet. In 1992. our compradors dragged the country into the Western model (from Finintern), hoping that the West would accept them as equals. And the economic model in the world was left alone.
    By 1999. it became clear even to the dumbest of the compradors that they had been dumped. And the group that had delegated Putin to the post of president had to be allowed to power. With the task of defending the integrity of the Russian Federation. Without admission to the management of the Russian economy. Putin more than coped with this task, bringing the Russian Federation to the Top 3 world leaders. Now, gradually, it takes over the management of the economy.
    The operation of the Western model of the economy has ended, in full accordance with the principles of Adam Smith and Karl Marx. What we are now seeing is the agony of the old model and attempts to get out of its debris. There is no clear understanding of the future of the economy in the West, since there are no economic schools left in the format of Marx's political economy. In our country, the orgy of the destruction of real economic science began 20 years later, so there are still people and schools left.
    No wonder the IMF leadership at the beginning of 2020. put Kristalina Georgieva, who graduated, for a minute, the Karl Marx Institute and gained experience in the USSR. At least she told them what was going on. And she has already spoken more than once about the incipient systemic crisis of capitalism and the need to divide the world into currency zones.
    And, in the conditions of a separate currency zone) no one will impose any "green tax" on the Russian Federation, this is nonsense.
    And the green technologies themselves are the same mine for gullible countries as Covid. In the Baltics they are already starting to hang themselves from it.

    Thus, according to Fedun, his company Lukoil refused to build an oil and gas chemical complex. The reason is simple: Previously produced plastic can now be recycled many times instead of littering landfills and oceans.

    Refusal to build factories for the production of plastics from oil and gas is a betrayal of the national interests of the Russian Federation or painful delirium.
    The use of recyclable materials is impossible in the manufacture of quality parts. In this case, it is possible to use the crushed waste of the production itself: sprues and flakes. But no more than 30% of the normal primary raw material. Production waste, even when recycled, loses its plasticity and becomes contaminated.
    The use of recyclable materials collected from garbage dumps is possible, mainly in those cases where plastics were not previously used. For example, mixed with sand, for the manufacture of tiles (such as paving slabs), parts of sewer wells, etc.

    ... Washington and Kiev will punish the Kremlin by blocking transit ...

    Kiev in this case will be left without gas and without income from transit. Which is a disaster for him. And the USA will not emerge from the current elections as the first power in the world. They will have other concerns.

    With gas, everything is much more complicated. If, or rather, when its consumption in Europe decreases, it will have to somehow reorient its export flows.

    The gas must be processed. And the deeper the better.
    And in general, Sergei, stop misinforming the people. Think about what you write. And consult with experts in those issues that you yourself do not understand.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 28 November 2020 07: 59
      -7
      Quote: boriz
      And in general, Sergei, stop misinforming the people. Think about what you write. And consult with experts in those issues that you yourself do not understand.

      Less pathos, monsieur.
      You yourself are "still" a specialist. All you have to do is scribble patriotic leaflets, which is what you are doing.
  7. pvlshvz Offline pvlshvz
    pvlshvz (Paul) 28 November 2020 01: 19
    +1
    They will not refuse. The wind cannot heat the city. And the plane cannot be refueled. And the chemical industry cannot be fed. 10% of "green energy" is nothing, a drop in the ocean.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 28 November 2020 08: 14
      -3
      And who said about 10%? What do you think they are going to do in the next 20-30 years?
      1. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
        antibi0tikk (Sergei) 2 December 2020 01: 30
        0

        This is a photo of the burial of wind turbine blades. A lot of plastic is also needed for their manufacture. And in order to deliver energy from wind turbines to the consumer, we need wires with PVC insulation
  8. DeGreen Offline DeGreen
    DeGreen 28 November 2020 10: 04
    +1
    The author is clearly on Obama's salary. He also promised that by 2014 the complete collapse of Russia
  9. orange Offline orange
    orange (ororpore) 28 November 2020 19: 10
    -1
    Putin by this time will be gone forever and there will be no one to ask.
  10. Termit1309 Offline Termit1309
    Termit1309 (Alexander) 29 November 2020 05: 18
    0
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    And who said about 10%? What do you think they are going to do in the next 20-30 years?

    Are you going to increase it to 15%?
  11. Victor Zhgunov Offline Victor Zhgunov
    Victor Zhgunov (Victor Zhgunov) 29 November 2020 07: 53
    +1
    The plans in Europe are great, but will they come true? Environmental structures and other organizations created by the West to destroy competitors. The West even uses the UN in an unfair struggle for markets, pushing its projects to frighten the world with fictitious environmental disasters, such as the "Ozone Holes" and "Global Warming". Well, where is that HOLE, after successfully pushing the benefits of the United States? But it is not a fact that now the West will get through such a scam.
  12. Don36 Offline Don36
    Don36 (Don36) 29 November 2020 17: 08
    +2
    All this is good on paper, but in reality there are ravines.
    1) Plants for the production of synthetic fuel were still under Hitler, but in the cold such fuel began to disintegrate into components, so Hitler still could not do without oil.
    2) The fact that at least somehow passed through Hitler during the war is not a fact that it will pass in peacetime, since during the war the price of fuel is secondary, the main thing is its availability, but in peacetime the price of fuel is of great importance, since directly affects the cost of European goods and their competitiveness.
    3) Nord Stream -1 is loaded today by only 50%, so in the event of the start of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine, the EU can go to 100% filling SP-1 to save its economy, especially if it is a cold winter
  13. scorp Offline scorp
    scorp (Alexander Burylov) 30 November 2020 19: 19
    0
    to determine the reality of the transition to renewable energy, give an answer to the question - how much area in Europe should be occupied by solar wind turbines to completely replace the existing CHPPs, GRES. And when you see what area you need for this, look at the map of Europe and tell me where all this will be exploited.
  14. Toivo Offline Toivo
    Toivo (Toivo) 30 November 2020 20: 51
    +1
    The future is with thermonuclear energy, Russia is in the lead here and is now actively participating in the construction of the first experimental thermonuclear reactor ITER, in France, which is actually being created according to Sakharov's project. They promise the first launch in five years. If everything goes well, then the era of thermonuclear energy will come. Russia will be all right here. Second, the fuel for such reactors is deuterium and tritium. There is a lot of deuterium in ordinary water, but there is practically no tritium on earth, but there is a lot of it on the moon. There it will be necessary to get it and carry it to Earth. And who can do it? Who is strong in space, Russia is also more or less all right here. In fact, the battle for the moon has already begun. The reason is simply tritium. Therefore, there is no need to paint the sad future of Russia.
  15. Alexey Offline Alexey
    Alexey (Alexey) 1 December 2020 18: 27
    0
    Yeah, in the meantime, EU coal purchases have increased.
  16. Kuznetsov Offline Kuznetsov
    Kuznetsov (Kuznetsov Alexander) 2 December 2020 00: 28
    +3
    Maybe by 2040 there will be no Europe or America at all. We need to think about this, how to live without them. Some kind of another pandemic and kirdyk. What kind of oil, what kind of gas, dung and straw will be heated, if anyone remains.
  17. ser.rudov2016 Offline ser.rudov2016
    ser.rudov2016 (Sergey Rudov) 2 December 2020 12: 50
    -1
    They have already realized it. Hydrogen will be driven along the Nord Stream.
  18. Sergio S Offline Sergio S
    Sergio S (Sergio C) 2 December 2020 15: 57
    0
    but what about the SHALE revolution ?! Where is she?!
    Kirdyk Rossiyushka because of her came yesterday, full ...
    10 years ago, as soon as they did not kick Gazprom for stupidity, backwardness and narrow-mindedness.
    Well, where are you, critics ?? ay
    Now new tales about the white bull (sorry, green)
    1. bb Offline bb
      bb (mmm) 3 December 2020 10: 56
      -1
      and the shale revolution awaits around the corner only its supporters, led by Trump, have lost to the green globalists
  19. bb Offline bb
    bb (mmm) 3 December 2020 10: 54
    -1
    they also made a discovery to me and for so long it is clear this is the same path of globalization that is inevitable and Russia here turns out to be the loser as it continues to play at nationalism