A default on the global public debt will lead to the withdrawal of gold from the population


The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated an already extremely difficult situation with an exorbitantly inflated global public debt. Today it is already 3,5 times the total size economics all countries and does not intend to stop its growth. However, everything has its limit and, perhaps, the first "black swans" have already flown.


According to experts, by the end of the year the global debt will amount to $ 277 trillion, which is a new historical record. It is simply unrealistic to pay it, and there are not particularly noticeable people willing to do it. By a strange coincidence, the most important debtors are the countries with the highest level of development and life: the USA, Great Britain, the European Union, the Republic of Korea and Japan. The US national debt is the largest in the world, valued at $ 12 trillion as of June 2020, 26, and has now undoubtedly grown even more. London owed £ 21 trillion, or $ 2 trillion as of 2,6 August. The total public debt of all EU countries is 104,4% of total GDP. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, Tokyo and Seoul also worsened their positions.

Against the background of these countries, Russia looks pretty good. Our national debt in relation to GDP is only 12,5%, while it is less than the total accumulated foreign exchange reserves. This stability has its downside: Russia's contribution to world GDP today is at the level of about 3%. We do not belong to the category of rapidly developing countries that siphon money to absorb more and more new markets and sell their products. Moscow is readily lent because of its stability, but Russian bonds are traded at low yields.

Meanwhile, rather dangerous tendencies began to appear. It was believed that the debt bubble would burst in the West, but Chinese companies were the first to give the slack. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic and structural changes in the country's energy sector, the state-owned mining company Yongcheng Coal and Electricity Holding Group announced a default on bonds. Following her, Tsinghua Unigroup, a manufacturer of microcircuits and cars, admitted that it was impossible to pay off. Then the Chinese car company Brilliance Auto Group Holdings declared a default on the bonds. Due to the current situation, bonds of Jizhong Energy Resources's and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining's fell in price, which were temporarily unable to place new bonds. On the scale of the Chinese economy, the amounts are small, but the trend is not very good, given that Beijing could not or did not want to timely prevent the announcement of defaults by large companies, including those with state participation.

The problem with debt, wherever it manifests itself, will inevitably eventually spread to the rest of the world. A direct consequence of the fight against them can be the strongest inflation inflation. Some experts predict its growth by 5%, or even 10% as early as next year. Global debt, denominated in dollars, euros, pounds and yen, due to the extreme decline in yield rates, will then begin to decline, depreciating the currency. Some economists even scare the possibility of introducing real "financial repressions", which may consist in "voluntarily-compulsory" purchase of government bonds and the withdrawal of cash gold from the population. If such predictions come true, then the burden of restructuring the world public debt will mainly fall on the shoulders of ordinary people at the expense of their savings.
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  1. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 20 November 2020 12: 50
    12
    "Contribution to world GDP" should be divided into services, manufacturing and finance.
    Otherwise, the countries of "dog hairdressers" and "masters of intimate haircuts" become on a par with countries producing essential goods, science-intensive goods, goods that ensure the functioning of the economy (energy carriers).
    And this is not right.
  2. Peter rybak Offline Peter rybak
    Peter rybak (Patrol) 20 November 2020 13: 08
    +2
    A default on the global public debt will lead to the withdrawal of gold from the population

    What is it like? Rosgvardia will take off chains and rings from women in the gateway?
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 20 November 2020 13: 52
      +3
      Decree of the President of the United States of 05.04.1933/100/20. left US citizens the right to own gold coins and bars worth up to $ 35. Ornaments, it seems, were not deprived of anyone, but wearing them was considered unpatriotic. For this they could be baited at the household level. Gold was also taken from banks. Gold was accepted at a fixed low price. After the gold was seized, the price was raised from $ 1975 to $ 23. The decree was in effect right up to XNUMX. It is believed that they collected only XNUMX% of the gold on hand, which was brought to Fort Knox, specially built for this. No serious repression was used for not surrendering gold. They "forgot" to include in the decree the ingots that the people were smartly trading on the black market.
      In general, those who really had a lot of gold brought it to Swiss banks, because such people knew everything in advance.
      How it will look now is hard to say. Swiss banks no longer keep deposit secrets. Previously, it was possible to buy coins with numismatic value (they were not subject to the decree). How they will do it now is hard to say. But, if Biden is the president of the United States, the population and small banks there will be cleaned with love, Finintern will not miss hanging his debts on ordinary suckers.
      1. passing by Offline passing by
        passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 15: 02
        +1
        and it all ended with gold-plated tungsten in Fort Knox ...
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 20 November 2020 15: 06
          +5
          Who can argue! That is why everyone appreciates the likelihood of a civil war. The Finintern needs chaos. It was not possible to organize chaos on a global scale (including because of Putin's policies), so it will have to be organized in the United States. Otherwise, you will have to answer a lot of unpleasant questions. They have no other choice.
          1. passing by Offline passing by
            passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 15: 22
            +1
            A holy place is never empty. not the fact that the rulers of the world sit in New York. well, it didn't work out in the usa, it happens laughing start elsewhere.
            1. boriz Offline boriz
              boriz (boriz) 20 November 2020 15: 29
              +3
              Again, no one argues. It's just that the Fed is in the United States. Therefore, it is in the United States that something must happen that would make it impossible to search not only for documentary traces of financial violations and fraud for 107 years, but also for 8 tons of supposedly existing gold.
              I have a rather relaxed imagination, but if I can easily imagine a simulation of the loss of documents, then, frankly speaking, I find it difficult to simulate the disappearance of 8 tons of gold without a trace.
              1. passing by Offline passing by
                passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 15: 38
                +2
                well, the tsarist gold and the gold of the Third Reich disappeared somewhere ... in the same place the American will settle laughing
                1. boriz Offline boriz
                  boriz (boriz) 20 November 2020 15: 46
                  +3
                  First, the numbers are different.
                  Traces of royal gold are more or less traced. A significant part of it is among the same 8 tons. It's just that Nicholas II has no legal heirs left.
                  But to portray that here it is gold, was under protection in a fucking bunker, there were some riots and after a few days they were gone. All power structures, including the army, must ensure their safety. Someone will have to hang it on.
                  It's not to steal a bottle of vodka in Pyaterochka.
                  8 tons is really a LOT! America has satellites ...
                  And how ?! ...
                  1. passing by Offline passing by
                    passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 15: 58
                    +3
                    of course there are satellites ... and they see everything from the Americans. for example, who shot down a Boeing, the Russian army in Ukraine, etc. but they won't show anyone laughing someday find their gold. as well as the gold of the Aztecs and Mayans ...
                    1. boriz Offline boriz
                      boriz (boriz) 20 November 2020 17: 35
                      +4
                      The fact is that the country's leadership will demand from the relevant departments that, according to satellite observation, they find out where the gold went. For, 8 tons is not a weak convoy of trucks or railway transport.
                      Questions will arise: in vain, did we invest taxpayers' money in satellites?
                      Everything will rest on the fact that no one wants to be extreme in this matter.
                      But no one can really find what is not there.
                      1. passing by Offline passing by
                        passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 17: 53
                        +3
                        at the moment gold is there only on paper and in the form of noodles on the ears of ordinary people. it may have been there for 30 years already. so no satellites will help ... there are no less rumors around Fort Knox than around Area 51.
                      2. boriz Offline boriz
                        boriz (boriz) 20 November 2020 20: 24
                        +4
                        Again, no one argues. But for the time being, Finintern is responsible for this gold (yes, non-existent), But with a peaceful transfer, it will be necessary to explain where the gold is, why fraud is allowed. The new authorities will demand reimbursement and compensation, which is unrealistic. And Finintern will be naked and barefoot. They don't want to let this happen! So the question is: how to do it?
                  2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 21 November 2020 19: 43
                    +4
                    This is who they are, the Americans - office and bank workers, trailer drivers and base workers, but no one .... The USA is enslaved worse than the USSR by the ruling elite, this stratum of the super-rich rules the United States and the World ... plus the same interlayer of England, here are the main ones for today ...
  • Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 November 2020 14: 03
    -1
    Yeah. The dollar is about to collapse, no one believes anymore, it's time to scare you with a default on the national debt, inflation of 10% and the withdrawal of gold.

    It remains only to look back - do the neighbors have a lot of gold? Maybe they hide in basements?

    And inflation at our Rosstat does not frighten at all. He calculates 4% by default at all prices.

    Accumulation? Too late. Banks as one have reduced the percentage to ridiculous values. Weaning is in progress.

    It is necessary to buy up dollars and euros while it is cheaper. The very thing
    1. passing by Offline passing by
      passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 15: 05
      0
      You can look for me laughing all the gold you find while you dig the basement is yours!
  • amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 20 November 2020 14: 50
    +5
    Due to the current situation, bonds of Jizhong Energy Resources's and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining's, which temporarily could not place new bonds, fell in price.

    And to which section of the economy does the author classify football teams valued at hundreds of millions of dollars and players with millions of dollars in salaries? What will happen if the soap bubble burst Chelchi and others like them? Or the widely advertised bitcoin, which is generally a factual value. Well, consumer goods in the form of grain, milk and meat have always been, are and will be real values, in contrast to the "volatility of futures".
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 November 2020 15: 36
      +2
      You are right artificial paper money multiplies infinitely, so the edge is close. It is not for nothing that the British are hastily buying gold, even from the sanctioned Russian Federation in hundreds of tons, which means that the money paper will not fit into the toilet soon, chewing ...
      1. passing by Offline passing by
        passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 15: 44
        +1
        it is not the British who buy up, but the exchange, which is located in the British.
  • Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 20 November 2020 15: 31
    +2
    By a strange coincidence, the most important debtors are the countries with the highest level of development and life: the United States, Great Britain, the European Union, the Republic of Korea and Japan.

    To ascribe to a coincidence of circumstances a targeted financial policy of the most advanced and economically developed countries looks like an insult or a complete lack of understanding of the situation.
    The central banks of the leading countries of the world acted deliberately, within the framework of the ideology of quantitative easing - they printed candy wrappers and pumped up the economy with free, interest-free loans. The result is economic growth of about 3% over a decade, not bad.
    Is there an alternative to the quantitative easing program, perhaps, but no one proposed it and thus refused the Nobel Prize in Economics.
    During the time of the planned economy of the USSR, world crises bypassed it, because there was targeted planning in physical terms and two currency levels - one for internal turnover, the other for external payments.
    There was no direct dependence on world crises, but it gave rise to a total deficit, a black market, currency speculation, which ultimately undermined faith in a planned economy, led to a coup, the collapse of the state and the restoration of capitalism when people are sold and bought wholesale and retail as slaves in the old days ...

    This stability has its downside: Russia's contribution to world GDP today is at the level of about 3%.

    Everyone is concerned about their personal financial situation, but the population does not care about the contribution to world GDP.
    What could be the rapid growth under the very recent 10-12%? This suggests that the task was to keep the economy and not let it collapse.
    Even today, loans are free all over the world, but in the Russian Federation?

    The PRC is the locomotive of the world economy has been and remains for the foreseeable future.
    The past congress outlined the main directions of development - double-circuit turnover, rejection of target growth indicators, innovative development, etc.
    The development of the PRC is moving to a qualitatively different level and the coronavirus epidemic gives a good starting head start - everyone has a fall, and in the PRC growth, which foreign policy projects of world importance are also called upon to accelerate - the NShP, RCEP, the Society of Common Destiny
    The problem of the PRC with debts at the municipal level, but this is a technical and solvable problem, does not shake the central party asset of the PRC but is widely advertised in the west - it is necessary to somehow discredit the main strategic enemy of the United States in the eyes of the common man and justify its aggressive actions.
  • Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 20 November 2020 15: 44
    +2
    The fact that even under socialism caused an armed rebuff of the population under capitalism will not fail. The people should not be held responsible for the mistakes of the Chubais who have been eating too much. I've never been to a restaurant in my entire life, and from where should I give the last wedding ring to a Hamlu sitting in a Mercedes? !
    1. passing by Offline passing by
      passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 16: 05
      +1
      in order for the population to have an ORGANIZED desire to jump, we need MONEY and guidance. Americans are usually happy to allocate money for such purposes. but why the desire to jump Marzhetskiy woke you up with another question ... I doubt that gold will be taken in Russia, but fermentation has begun laughing
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 20 November 2020 16: 21
        +3
        There is no fermentation. The ruling party has long caused me only negative. In our area, the extreme elections, she merged the Communist Party and they have already brought more positive (renovation began in the entrances, which I did not wait for from United Russia). As for the Novalny and Yavlinskys, their meeking has long made me want to poke at them from the PKK. As for the gold, I'm not an underground millionaire Koreiko, I don't have it, let the Chubais and Vasilievs go to dispossess them, and they can only remove the wedding ring from my corpse, but before I die, I will have time to shoot a dozen boors who have beaten the shores from the service, or premium.
        1. passing by Offline passing by
          passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 16: 40
          +2
          Entrances are being repaired not by the party, but by the people. and whatever the ruling party is, all the shit will go into it. so closer to money and power. there are communists, and there are Zyuganov who runs to the US ambassador to report and his pocket oligarch sternin .... also with edrom in which the stealing chief doctor and watchman are trying to get through. all of them will be happy to become communists tomorrow.
          1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 20 November 2020 16: 43
            +3
            It is clear that people, not pigs, but people should be instructed to go do something and allocate money for this work. Nevertheless, the deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation who came to power in the region found leverage to repair the entrances, and the United Russia party did not need it for a hundred years ... So I will not vote for this snickering party of idlers. Those who run to the US Embassy are Poles suffering from Russophobia: Novalny + Yavlinsky.
            1. passing by Offline passing by
              passing by (passing by) 20 November 2020 16: 55
              +1
              when a few years ago, during the next elections, I read in a propaganda leaflet: ataman, communist, Orthodox, I have a Toyota Camry, a house, warehouses with a salary of 20000 rubles .... I was disappointed in the Communist Party.
              1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 20 November 2020 20: 11
                +4
                Well, Zyuganov and the company are still women with low social responsibility. I remember how in the 90s they voted for the anti-people Yeltsin laws with a majority in the State Duma, selling the interests of their voters and their honor for a check. Thank God, not everyone is like that, and oldfather Zyu's father has three Mondays left to live. Other people come instead. Maybe, and even for sure, not all are decent, but there are decent ones, and this pleases.
    2. pvlshvz Offline pvlshvz
      pvlshvz (Paul) 22 November 2020 01: 14
      0
      But because the Hamla in the Mercedes has armed guards. And if you disagree, they will break your leg, arm, neck and still take everything away. This was the case before Putin in the 90s. Buy yourself gold and don't tell anyone. If the specialists could not find him in the USSR, then the current "Pinkertons" figs will find anything at all.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 23 November 2020 11: 04
        +2
        The guards have to pay, and as far as I know these fat men, they owe their dog a piece of meat, so that the lion's share of them will be strangled by their guards. As for me, the private security companies are not a competitor to me, they need 3-4 dozen to kill me alone, and that's not a fact. The OMON's chances would have been higher, but even there an ordinary employee gets a pittance and it is doubtful that with a serious boil he would go to die for the owner who feeds him poorly.
  • Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 20 November 2020 19: 08
    0
    A default on the global public debt will lead to the withdrawal of gold from the population

    I would like to ask the author - WHY? What problems will the withdrawal of gold from the population in developed countries solve? In countries with convertible currencies? In countries with reserve currencies?
  • boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 20 November 2020 19: 21
    +4
    Interestingly, not so long ago, 14.03.2020/XNUMX/XNUMX, the most pressing question for Sergei was: "Will Trump decide to finish off the Russian economy?"

    https://topcor.ru/13598-reshitsja-li-tramp-dobit-jekonomiku-rossii.html#comment

    Although the most sane commentators believed that it was time for Trump (along with the American economy) to "think about God." And not to destroy the Russian economy.
    And so, come on, it turns out that the economic prospects of Russia do not look so bad compared to the USA.
    But it would be worthwhile to reread the comments to that post more carefully.
    The point is not, in fact, the national debt. The national debt can be stupidly not paid. For example, switch to another currency yourself (at least to the US dollar, according to the decree of D.F. Kennedy, and not the US dollar, as it is now). The current dollar is deflated, but the debts are denominated in it. They should pay off. And who will do what? How much for this fake dollar was built AUG and other good? Try it, demand payment of debts in normal currency or gold!
    It is sad that there is an internal debt, many times greater than an external one. For example, the US social security system is based on dollar treasuries. At a zero rate, it will collapse and unrestrained emission will not save for a long time. Black bums, whose lives, as you know, matter, will be without benefits, free iPhones and other miscellaneous free things. And what will happen then? Although, recently, pension funds in the United States have grown fond of investing in Russian securities, but this is a drop in the ocean.
    And the inflow of revenues to the budget will also be reduced. Not only in the United States, where a huge segment of the population will be left without work, tied to servicing unnecessary financial transactions. All countries will suffer. having a large trade turnover with the USA. The United States will seek to minimize (ideally zero) the trade deficit. That is, Germany, for example (or China), will either have to buy more from the United States or sell less from the United States. And there is nothing to buy from the USA. What does this highly developed country, a role model for gas stations like Russia, offer China? And the USA offers LNG (at uncompetitive prices), light oil, soybeans, round timber and so on. And China (and Germany and other trading partners) must take money somewhere in order to buy it from the United States. Where to get them? And this is not a rhetorical question.
    As a result, the US will have nothing to feed its black loafers, Germany (and conscious EU countries) - its black loafers. In recent years, China has channeled 25% of its GDP to stimulate domestic demand (in simple terms, just like the United States inflated the bubble of consumer loans), and took money from the trade surplus. And where will he get this money now? And the Chinese are used to a certain standard of living, because you get used to good things quickly. And loans must be given. And the work will not.
    So, although Sergei did not indicate China as a country with a problem economy, it is this economy that will do no worse than the American one.
    Yes, China has no debt. On the contrary, the United States owes China. But, to promise does not mean to marry, who said that China will receive these debts? And the real losses due to the showdown with the trade balance will not go anywhere.
  • ELENA LOGACHINI Offline ELENA LOGACHINI
    ELENA LOGACHINI (ELENA LOGACHINI) 21 November 2020 14: 45
    -2
    In Russia, there is nothing to seize from the population)! And those who have it will not take it from themselves! Therefore, our population is not for gold)))))))