By ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia saved Donbass and Transnistria


The coming of peace and the end of bloodshed are always wonderful. This applies in full measure to the end of the military confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, in this particular case, having played a brilliant military-diplomatic "party" and forcing the parties to stop hostilities on the most acceptable conditions for itself, Moscow not only saved from quite probable "ethnic cleansing" or, at least, from the forced flight of residents of the "free Artsakh ".


The threat of exactly the same fate has been allotted (at least for the near future) also from other "unrecognized republics" seeking support and protection from our country.

Invalid use case


Let's start with the essence: if events developed according to the scenario that, in fact, were counted on in Baku, and, above all, in Ankara, this would create an extremely significant and absolutely unacceptable precedent for Russia. We are talking about a successful return to the rule of one or another state through a military operation of "rebellious" territories, which were once a part of it for some reason, but did not want to remain so. Let's be frank - as of the day before yesterday, there were practically no real obstacles to realizing just such a prospect. The surrender of the strategic defense point of Shushi to the Azerbaijanis put the NKR military formations and the Armenian forces supporting them not only at a disadvantage, but literally in a catastrophic situation. The capture of Stepanakert and the fall of Artsakh, in fact, were a matter of a few days, if not hours. However, the agreement concluded between Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan forced Baku to abandon a complete and final victory, which, in fact, was already "at arm's length." Very weighty arguments were probably made by Vladimir Vladimirovich ...

And by the way, Erdogan's signature under the document is not. And the peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh is Russian, not Turkish. And not even mixed. Whatever they try to say in Baku and Ankara about some kind of "participation" and "observation", our tricolor will flutter over the Lachin corridor, and not a red banner with a crescent. And watch - watch who is against. Only, as they say, keep your hands to yourself. The main thing is that Nagorno-Karabakh does not come under the authority of Azerbaijan, but remains in the state of an autonomous enclave, albeit not legitimized, and even receives real protection in the person of Russian peacekeepers. Now anyone who tries to storm it will have to deal with Moscow, not Yerevan.

Let's return, however, to our main topic. The problem of "unrecognized republics" in all its acuteness arose at the end of the last - the beginning of this century, that is, during the collapse of the USSR and the countries of the "socialist camp". The secession of Transnistria from Moldova, the self-determination of Abkhazia and South Ossetia ... Back in 2000, there was a whole Union of unrecognized states, which some call the CIS-2. In 2014, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics were added to this list. All these small but proud enclaves are united, in addition to a lot of common features, and one more - each of them tried to "calm down" with fire and sword. At the same time, such attempts, as a rule, were policy, who at one time shouted louder than anyone about the “right of peoples to self-determination” and reproached Russia for “imperialism”. The last such escapade was undertaken in 2008, do not be remembered by Mikheil Saakashvili by nightfall, for it is not clear with what joy he imagined that NATO would fully support his military adventure with all its might.

Nothing of the kind, of course, happened, the thugs who were wiping Tskhinvali and our peacekeepers off the face of the earth fell on the nuts, and Miho was forced to switch to a low-calorie tie diet. Well, and then completely retrain from presidents to governors of Odessa. There, however, he did not work out either, but that was not the point. The failure of the 2008 Georgian "blitzkrieg", as well as Kiev's shameful attempts to "de-occupy" Donbass in 2014-2015, very much cooled the "hot heads" in some nationally preoccupied states that clearly overestimate their military capabilities and foreign policy weight. They have firmly learned: the North Atlantic bloc will not fight for them, and it is more expensive for them to contact Russia.

"Ukrainian Shusha" and other dangerous fantasies


The military successes of Azerbaijan in the current campaign have generated an extremely unsafe "ferment of minds" and a certain revaluation of the issue described above. It turns out that you shouldn't rely on loose, clumsy and always cautious Brussels! And even Washington shouldn't be courted! It is enough to "make friends" with a not so powerful militarily as the United States, but the most aggressive country, ready to support your plans to "restore territorial integrity" by real force - and the trick is in the bag. Having imagined itself as a new incarnation of the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey with its actions in the Caucasus not only sets a bad example for all those who dream of “de-occupation” and forced “reintegration”, but is actually pushing not only Azerbaijan to war. It is not for nothing that its "military cooperation" with Kiev, still unable to settle down, just against the background of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, has blossomed in full bloom, having received a new powerful impetus. The ruin, as the Bulgakov professor used to say, is in the heads - and just in the skullcaps of Ukrainian patriots on this occasion, an unprecedented seething of their simple contents began.

They really perked up due to the new perspectives, which seemed extremely attractive to them! “We were very clearly demonstrated exactly how to win in Donbass ...“ Bayraktars ”, an alliance with Azerbaijan and Turkey - all of this we already have or may receive soon” ... Horlivka is the Ukrainian Shusha and our army will take it ... Everything can be solved elementary, we just need allies who, instead of praising for "peacefulness", will provide us with "Bayraktar" - just such and other similar "revelations" the social networks and messengers of the "nezalezhnaya" were full of after the news of the capture of Shushi. Now, of course, there is a dreary calm in them ...

Alternatively, gifted sofa "strategists" from Kiev, Lvov and Zhashkov, with their little minds, were unable to compare the difference between the situations with Nagorno-Karabakh and Donbass, unable to understand that the way they see them in feverish "bayrakty" dreams, would not have happened in any way case. In Artsakh, unlike the DPR and LPR, there are not and never have been thousands of people with Russian passports. Russia has good-neighborly and partner relations not only with Yerevan, but also with Baku (but not with Kiev!). Our country does not have good logistical capabilities to provide military assistance to Armenia, but the situation with Donbass is exactly different. The same (only, so to speak, with the opposite sign) applies to Turkey. And Pashinyan, with his "Maidan" past and clear pro-Western orientation for Moscow, is not at all the same as the leaders of Donbass.

The list goes on and on, although the above is more than enough. Nevertheless, if the Azerbaijani army took Stepanakert after Shusha (and everything went to this), then any logical arguments would be "patriots" pushed further away. And the arguments of reason ... Modern Ukraine and reason are concepts that are incompatible by definition. It could well have turned out that under the influence of other people's victories and, as in the Azerbaijani case, persistently "pushed under the elbow" by Ankara, the local "Napoleons" would have decided on the most desperate and insane attempt. In the end, as they say in Ukraine itself, “a bad thing is simple”: they would spank drones (the Turks would also throw them “from the sultan’s shoulder”), and they would move Donbass to “de-occupy” it. This would hardly happen in today's Moldova, but who knows who will be in power in this country tomorrow? Believe me, there are enough individuals with similar intentions regarding Transnistria.

Peace accords on Nagorno-Karabakh have become a real cold shower for those who have been looking enviously news from this war, "trying on" other people's victories. The most important thing here is the appearance in the Caucasus of a new powerful grouping of Russian peacekeeping forces. If, again, we try to project the situation onto Donbass, then it becomes clear that any attempt to act there according to the “Karabakh scenario” will lead to the appearance of a Russian flag over the same Horlivka, not a green one. And on absolutely, mind you, legal grounds. "The West won't give it?" And where was the West when Vladimir Vladimirovich dictated the terms of the truce to Pashinyan and Aliyev? Here's the same ... This is also a very good lesson for "especially frostbitten". By the way, from the very beginning, Putin offered the "Maidan" figure from Yerevan to sacrifice small - the regions around Karabakh, seized in 1992 and turned into a "security belt". It was possible to get off with much smaller losses than now - both human, and territorial, and image. If you don't listen, blame yourself. It would have been even worse further, but only for Russia it was already categorically unprofitable. Kiev should also think about this moment. Perhaps when the turn of the local "leaders" comes to listen to the Kremlin's ultimatum, they will remember the sad experience of their Armenian counterpart and show at least some prudence.

One way or another, but the degree of Russia's success in the Caucasus can be assessed at least by how much negative reaction it has caused from our Western "friends". Former commander of the US Army in Europe Ben Hodges has already shown the rudeness inherent in his compatriots by declaring the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh (as well as in any other part of the world) as "occupiers." On what grounds? But because they are not American! Well, since Washington clearly does not like this alignment, then everything has been done correctly. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the "experts" who have somewhat recovered from the shock are refining themselves in fabrications on the theme of "Moscow's geopolitical defeat in the Caucasus" and, accordingly, "the victory and strengthening of Turkey" in this region. My condolences ... However, the calls for "de-occupation of Donbass in Karabakh" died down at once. And this is the main point.
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  1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 11 November 2020 10: 20
    +4
    By ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia saved Donbass

    I will correct a little, not Donbass, but the warriors are coming out from the next "boilers". It's just that a lot of time has passed, they forgot how they fought. They either fell into the encirclement or fled so that they threw all weapons and equipment.
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 11 November 2020 10: 43
      0
      while "comrade" Girkin argued that the Debaltsev boiler would not work ...
  2. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 11 November 2020 10: 29
    -2
    Iran has more rights in Karabakh than Armenians ... Donbass is Russian, because local "nomadic" tribes have never decided the fate of "their" land and have not been involved in state organization ... and Moldovans should not think about Transnistria, but about the fact that they can become Romanians. So, using the example of dill, Donbass is Karabakh, Ukrainians are Armenians, and Russia is Azerbaijan (Iran). the Ukrainians will have three more "Karabakhs". Malopolsha, Transcarpathia and Bukovina ... and the "great" Ukraine will remain within the boundaries of the 17th century.
    1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 11 November 2020 18: 43
      -1
      ... Moldovans should not think about Pridnestrovie, but about the fact that they can become Romanians.

      1) Moldovans "think" about Transnistria out of inertia, keeping for this a deputy prime minister for "reintegration". In this position, each (each) figure tries to portray a stormy activity, but this does not go further.
      2) Looking at how the Moldovans "are fighting a deadly virus" and many of their other nonsense, sometimes I think - even if the Romanians would clean up them, but in the existing realities this is impossible.
    2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 11 November 2020 22: 47
      0
      And what about Iran here? Its border with both republics along the Araks is quite satisfactory, by the way, at present the communication of Nakhichevan with the "mainland" is carried out along the highway along its right bank of the Araks.
    3. Morgan Offline Morgan
      Morgan (Miron) 11 November 2020 23: 04
      +1
      What a mess in your head!
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 11 November 2020 11: 02
    +3
    In principle, it is true. But there are some comments.
    Across Karabakh.
    Initially, Azerbaijan did not set the entire Nagorno-Karabakh as its goal. Initially, it was about five regions and the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. True, in the minds of some Azerbaijani "hurray-patriots" there were thoughts of a complete victory. But the President of Azerbaijan said in mid-October that the victory would not be complete without Shushi. At the same time, he did not say anything about Stepanakert. That's right, he stated that "Karabakh is Azerbaijan". But in the same way, he immediately stated that the Armenians would live in Karabakh. And he always confirmed that as soon as Armenia provides the schedule for the withdrawal of the Armenian troops, the Azerbaijani army will immediately stop.
    I have always said in the same way that the situation is controlled by Moscow, and not by Istanbul. Azerbaijan will be given the opportunity to take Aghdam and then, at a shout from Moscow, the war will end.

    I can't say anything about Moldova and Transnistria. Simply because I do not know the situation in that region well.

    But a lot has been written about Ukraine and Donbass in detail.
    In the article, some points are absolutely correct. And passports, and a common border and logistics. The situations are completely different. But the solution may be the same. You can PREDICT some things. Please note that I am not predicting, only FORECASTING. Should Kiev get excited and try to repeat the Karabakh scenario and get the same Karabakh scenario. That is, the cultural autonomy of Donbass within Ukraine (cultural autonomy of Karabakh within Azerbaijan), the Russian peacekeeping brigade in the Donbass (the Russian peacekeeping brigade in Karabakh). Moreover, I assume that Donetsk and Lugansk can even restore their administrative borders.
    Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that the entry of Donbass into the Russian Federation is not planned. There is no such question at the moment. But Russia can solve humanitarian issues with its peacekeepers.
    So Kiev should not appeal to the Karabakh scenario. The conflicts are completely different. But you can solve them in the same way.

    At this stage, it is much more important for Russia not to annex new territories (although this is pleasant), but to ensure security on its borders and in the near abroad. Which she is doing quite successfully.
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 11 November 2020 13: 49
    +1
    1. The agreement reached should be viewed not as the end of the war, but as a temporary truce, because:
    A) The stated goal of Azerbaijan - the complete liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh - has not been achieved.
    B) Public opinion in Armenia does not agree with the terms of the agreement and mass protests in Yerevan testify to this.
    2. While the war was on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was not even recognized by Armenia, the Russian Federation was engaged in persuasion.
    A very weighty argument of Vladimir Vladimirovich was the obligation under the CSTO agreement and the statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry that if hostilities were transferred to the territory of Armenia, the Russian Federation would be forced to use force, and neither Azerbaijan, nor Turkey, nor Iran wanted to fight with the Russian Federation, and nobody else.
    3. The color revolution in Georgia during the half-life of the state, when Ajaria, Abkhazia, Ossetia, Kakheti and other administrative regions practically left Tbilisi's subordination. M. Saakashvili carried out a brilliant operation in Adjara and, on the wave of success, tried to do it in Abkhazia and South Ossetia too, but ran into the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, no one canceled the task of uniting Georgia within the borders of the former republic of the USSR, the Belovezhskaya Agreements and those recognized by the world community.
    4. Problems of "unrecognized republics" - the legacy of the USSR, its administrative-territorial division, interethnic policy, different levels of development of social and economic regions, undercover intrigues and strong-willed decisions, such as with the Crimea.
    5. The Belovezhskaya Agreement recognizes all post-Soviet states within the borders of the union republics and All (!!!), including the UN, agreed with this and no one objected, referring to the ethnic composition, religious community, historical justice and other arguments. A solution to the problems of all "unrecognized republics" emerges from this.
    1. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
      Astronaut (San Sanych) 12 November 2020 02: 12
      -1
      The Belovezhskaya Agreement is illegal. You should know it.
  5. Alkatrass A Offline Alkatrass A
    Alkatrass A (Аlkatrass A) 11 November 2020 17: 29
    +1
    After an organized and, apparently, planned surrender in Artsakh, experts of different minds and values ​​rushed together in search of heroes and the guilty. Moreover, according to the old Russian tradition, with the requirement to punish the innocent and reward the unworthy. The hero, of course, is Russia, which stopped the hostilities. However, they had to be stopped immediately after the cluster bombing of Stepanakert. And if not stop, then send equipment and military experts. The whining about fraternal Azerbaijan and the Third World War with the Turks is sent straight to the toilet. In North Vietnam, for example, nothing prevented us from helping with technicians and specialists. But the United States was involved there and not indirectly, but directly. Everyone in the world knew about our help to the Vietnamese and somehow survived nothing. Tell your wives and mistresses about the lack of recognition of Artsakh as something that hinders support. Crimea is not recognized, LDNR too, but the entire Baltic region in the world was considered occupied by the USSR. Who cared about this? You do not justify your own impotence by fatigue at work, please. Speak directly: today, elite capital decides everything. Capital is not just money, it is power and resources of power, and money is only a convenient instrument with one hundred percent liquidity. Previously, we could fit anywhere based on ideology. We carried communism and helped the oppressed. Now we have zero ideas and zero ideology. If the oppressed people have no attendants, then I'm sorry. This is the logic. Statements about the fact that the Armenians did not beg us well, did not kneel enough, did not swear allegiance enough, the evil Soros dug in there - leave it for the curators from the Old Square. It will ride there.
    1. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
      Astronaut (San Sanych) 12 November 2020 02: 15
      +1
      Wait, Belousov will completely close Nabibulina, return the Central Bank to the bosom of Russia and there will be enough money.
  6. Maxim Rozhdestvensky (Maxim Rozhdestvensky) 12 November 2020 04: 18
    +2
    Very controversial and overly optimistic judgments. Regarding Armenia, are the protestors against Pashinyan shouting "Long live Russia" ??? The usual reaction at all times to the losing government ... Donbass is by no means identical, since it did not realize its original "scenario" conceived back in the "distant" 14th (to become an alternative Ukraine in relation to Kiev in the Maidan) and is unlikely will ever come true. It is good, of course, that things did not come to the storming of Stepanokert and the Lachin corridor was kept, but this is unlikely to stop the "hurray-patriots" in Azerbaijan, and even more so in Turkey. East is East. It is not worth comparing Turkey with the position of Europe and the United States. Different mentality. It is undoubtedly true that Turkey, having unequivocally declared its "belonging" to Crimea, will not become a "friend and partner". They shot down a plane, shot down a helicopter - nothing ... "God's dew" ... It's all sad, of course. Although they do buy oil and gas. "May they be forgiven ..." Oil is worth the Mass "...
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 15 November 2020 13: 16
      +1
      Russia is so weak that it protects only nuclear weapons from serious conflicts. After all, there will be no volunteers for the yachts of the Abramovichs and Rotenbergs, and big clashes will quickly dry up the cadre army, at our levels to manage and supply ... Regarding the DPR and Lao PDR, on the contrary, Karabakh has sharpened the problem, and that it needs to be addressed. The behavior of the Russian Federation, similar to Armenia in Karabakh, did not recognize, and lost forever, having paid a considerable bloody price. Now the bloody price has been paid and is being paid for Donbass, but the result - Ukraine will still get it - cannot be called a betrayal by the government of the Russian Federation of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass ... Cabinet machinations on the blood of the Russian world of marmots are a crime against Russia and the people ..
  7. Hugo Ferreus Offline Hugo Ferreus
    Hugo Ferreus (Hugo Ferreus and Guillaume Porkus Ismailov) 12 November 2020 11: 32
    0
    The author, not Shushi, but Shusha. This is the real name of this glorious city. Azerbaijan defeated the Armenians and returned the city to its rightful owners.