The global economy is waiting for a new disaster
There is an unwritten rule among economists: every ten years there is a global financial crisis. Given the fact that the past was in 2008, the deadline for the next approached. According to many experts, next year the world the economy will cover a new global crisis.
Russian specialists at the Institute for Contemporary Development point out the prerequisites for future economic upheavals. First, statements about economic growth are not entirely true, because growth is asynchronous. Only the United States of America is growing, and all other leading powers - China, Japan and the countries of the European Union - are stunted. Secondly, there is a risk of increasing trade wars between the leading economies of the world. If the United States and China clash seriously, the global economy will not count 1,4%. If Brussels joins the confrontation with Washington, then global GDP will lose 2-3%, and trade may drop by 70%. As early as 2019, the global economy could creep into recession.
The well-known economist Mikhail Khazin is also pessimistic, who believes that the 2008 crisis has not ended, but continues to this day. It was simply hidden by manipulations with statistics and large-scale emission of the dollar and the euro. The real economic recession continues to this day, it is simply covered up by the inclusion of intellectual property in the methodology for calculating GDP. The expert points out the discrepancy between the cost and real profitability of many well-known companies.
In the event of a fall in markets, according to Khazin, the mechanism for stimulating private demand will stop. After that, the standard of living of the population will drop by the domino effect. The economist believes that the markets should have collapsed two years ago and the effect of the delayed fall could be even stronger. Any significant event can push dominoes' knuckles: from the bankruptcy of a major player to a natural disaster or a man-made accident. In doing so, Washington is policies trying to solve their problems at the expense of other countries:
I do not exclude that the United States, which, in fact, is engaged in Trump, will try to maintain their markets due to the collapse of the EU, Japan, China, India
The well-known financier and speculator George Soros believes that the EU will be the “bastard” for three reasons: austerity measures that impede development, the problem with migrants and its consequence in the form of Britain leaving the EU. Again, the American notes the negative role of Donald Trump, who destroyed the Transatlantic Partnership project and unilaterally withdrew from the “nuclear deal” with Iran.
More figuratively, the problems of the world economy were described by the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, calling them from thunderclouds. Cloud number one - the monstrous debts of leading economies, which make up 225% of world GDP, moreover, the leader is the United States, but the European Union is catching up with it, followed by Japan and the United Kingdom. Cloud number two is the outflow of capital from developing countries to the United States, thanks to the new monetary policy of the Fed. Cloud number three is the activity of the American president, shaking the foundations of the world order, unilaterally emerging from many trade agreements.
What should Russia do in the event of a new economic crisis? The same Mikhail Khazin is not sure of the existence of a systematic approach by the government, which is most likely to twitch situationally and plug holes in reserves. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the decrease in investments in American bonds alone did not impress him at all, since they were converted from dollars to euros, and this is a daughter currency compared to the same dollar.
Other economists agree on the need to build up an airbag, which is clearly needed for anti-crisis measures and supporting Russian oligarchs in difficult times. The head of the Central Bank Nabiullina also stands breastfeeding for the creation of gold and foreign exchange reserves. In her opinion, protection against risks is more important than solving a set of socio-economic problems that are proposed by a number of deputies and economists.
Russian specialists at the Institute for Contemporary Development point out the prerequisites for future economic upheavals. First, statements about economic growth are not entirely true, because growth is asynchronous. Only the United States of America is growing, and all other leading powers - China, Japan and the countries of the European Union - are stunted. Secondly, there is a risk of increasing trade wars between the leading economies of the world. If the United States and China clash seriously, the global economy will not count 1,4%. If Brussels joins the confrontation with Washington, then global GDP will lose 2-3%, and trade may drop by 70%. As early as 2019, the global economy could creep into recession.
The well-known economist Mikhail Khazin is also pessimistic, who believes that the 2008 crisis has not ended, but continues to this day. It was simply hidden by manipulations with statistics and large-scale emission of the dollar and the euro. The real economic recession continues to this day, it is simply covered up by the inclusion of intellectual property in the methodology for calculating GDP. The expert points out the discrepancy between the cost and real profitability of many well-known companies.
In the event of a fall in markets, according to Khazin, the mechanism for stimulating private demand will stop. After that, the standard of living of the population will drop by the domino effect. The economist believes that the markets should have collapsed two years ago and the effect of the delayed fall could be even stronger. Any significant event can push dominoes' knuckles: from the bankruptcy of a major player to a natural disaster or a man-made accident. In doing so, Washington is policies trying to solve their problems at the expense of other countries:
I do not exclude that the United States, which, in fact, is engaged in Trump, will try to maintain their markets due to the collapse of the EU, Japan, China, India
The well-known financier and speculator George Soros believes that the EU will be the “bastard” for three reasons: austerity measures that impede development, the problem with migrants and its consequence in the form of Britain leaving the EU. Again, the American notes the negative role of Donald Trump, who destroyed the Transatlantic Partnership project and unilaterally withdrew from the “nuclear deal” with Iran.
More figuratively, the problems of the world economy were described by the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, calling them from thunderclouds. Cloud number one - the monstrous debts of leading economies, which make up 225% of world GDP, moreover, the leader is the United States, but the European Union is catching up with it, followed by Japan and the United Kingdom. Cloud number two is the outflow of capital from developing countries to the United States, thanks to the new monetary policy of the Fed. Cloud number three is the activity of the American president, shaking the foundations of the world order, unilaterally emerging from many trade agreements.
What should Russia do in the event of a new economic crisis? The same Mikhail Khazin is not sure of the existence of a systematic approach by the government, which is most likely to twitch situationally and plug holes in reserves. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the decrease in investments in American bonds alone did not impress him at all, since they were converted from dollars to euros, and this is a daughter currency compared to the same dollar.
Other economists agree on the need to build up an airbag, which is clearly needed for anti-crisis measures and supporting Russian oligarchs in difficult times. The head of the Central Bank Nabiullina also stands breastfeeding for the creation of gold and foreign exchange reserves. In her opinion, protection against risks is more important than solving a set of socio-economic problems that are proposed by a number of deputies and economists.
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