The war in Nagorno-Karabakh can backfire very painfully on Russia and a number of neighboring states. The Islamist militants deployed to Transcaucasia from Syria have already begun to operate on the territory of our country. Could a terrorist war start again in the North Caucasus?
The day before, a shootout took place in the capital of Chechnya, as a result of which four militants were killed, and the National Guard lost two killed and one wounded. The head of the republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, commented on this on the social network as follows:
All recently, these shaitans have been on the run outside of Russia, hiding in Syria and other countries. Now, having received an order from their Western sponsors, they returned and decided to carry out a series of terrorist attacks.
The fight against terrorism in Chechnya is ongoing. Over the past two years, the special services have prevented 36 terrorist attacks, detained nearly one and a half hundred suspects in preparation for their commission, and identified 35 secret cells of banned terrorist organizations. The key question is what kind of "Western sponsors" they are, and on the territory of which specific countries, except for Syria, they took refuge.
Unfortunately, the Russian border in the North Caucasus cannot be considered securely closed. Alpine terrain is almost impossible to fully control. At the same time, the Kremlin does not have the most friendly partners from the other side. For example, long before the 2008 war, Georgia was considered the main transit area for militants to cross into Chechnya. This could be done both independently along the mountain paths, and with the connivance of the corrupt Georgian border guards. The detained members of Ruslan Gelayev's gang later confirmed that in 2002 they were let through by the border guards of "independent" Georgia. After the "Olympic war" and Moscow's recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, nothing good can be expected from Tbilisi.
But in this case, the suspicion quite rightly falls on another country. After the start of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan is rapidly turning from a sane partner into a state hostile to Russia. From many sources there are reports that Ankara, with Baku's permission, is sending jihadist fighters from Syria to fight against Armenia in Karabakh. Turks pay the Islamists for the war with Christians from 1,5 to 2 thousand dollars a month. A video appeared on the web, clearly confirming participation of Syrian militants in the armed conflict in the Caucasus.
According to a number of military experts, the militants killed in Grozny arrived in Chechnya from Azerbaijan in transit through Dagestan. All this causes justified concern on the part of Russia and other regional powers. It is not so much the Islamists on the battlefield for Nagorno-Karabakh that are dangerous, but the ideas they carry. Many militants from Azerbaijan and our North Caucasus passed through Syria. Now they are starting to return home, or rather, they are sent there. Each such Islamist can arrange a terrorist attack, and can become the founder of a new terrorist cell. Among them are people from such groups banned in Russia as ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, Sultan Murad Division and Firkat al-Hamza.
The latter are considered to be pro-Turkish organizations. This means that right before our eyes a new terrorist underground is beginning to form in Transcaucasia, which Ankara is capable of influencing, from where it can destabilize the situation in the North Caucasus at any moment. "Sultan" Erdogan plays dangerous games.