How and when the war in Nagorno-Karabakh will end

Any war ends when the victorious side believes it has achieved its goals. Sooner or later, the next escalation of the armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia will also end. What goals could Baku and the Ankara behind it really set?

First of all, one must understand that President Aliyev could hardly seriously expect to completely seize (liberate?) Nagorno-Karabakh. For neighboring Armenia, the issue of the inviolability of the unrecognized republic is of fundamental importance, therefore, the Azerbaijani army will not be able to take it under control without unacceptable losses.

The next thing to consider is the general economic and the military-industrial level of the two belligerent countries. Let's face it, this is not a deadly confrontation between the USSR and the Third Reich, where truly colossal resources were involved. Armenia and Azerbaijan simply will not be able to fight each other for too long, despite the fact that Ankara is supporting Baku with weapons. Technique is knocked out, ammunition is fired, tons of fuel and lubricants are spent, people are dying. All this must be continuously replenished, but Azerbaijan itself, and Turkey behind it, who have become the initiators of this aggravation, are experiencing serious economic difficulties. The war requires a lot of money, and low prices for hydrocarbons have sharply reduced the financial capabilities of Baku.

The Azerbaijani military occupied a number of settlements, but as such the blitzkrieg has not yet worked out, being bogged down in the fierce resistance of the Armenians. Further positional confrontation will cost both sides dearly in every sense of the word. Attention is drawn to the statement by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the readiness of Yerevan and Stepanakert to some kind of compromise:

The settlement of conflicts should be carried out on the basis of mutual concessions. Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia are ready for such concessions as Azerbaijan will be ready for.

What kind of compromise could it be? Most likely, we can talk about seven buffer territories, the so-called "security belt", which were occupied by the Armenians during the war in the mid-nineties. For modern Azerbaijan, their return is a national idea, a matter of international prestige. Apparently, the real goal of Baku was the return of these very territories and the resettlement of former refugees there. It would be big for President Aliyev political success, external and internal, which would increase his staggering popularity in his country against the background of economic difficulties. But Armenia, too, would clearly not mind getting back the regions under the control of Azerbaijan - Shahumyan, parts of the Martuni and Martakert regions. This would help Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan save face in front of his people.

The question is how to bring old enemies to the negotiating table. The ideal option would be to try to reconcile the parties specifically to Moscow as a traditional mediator. Unfortunately, the participation of Turkey in the conflict, which pursues its own political interests, complicates everything, and now neighboring Iran is actively involved in the matter. We'll have to wait until the Azerbaijani military runs out of energy and Baku does not recognize the impossibility of returning all buffer territories under its control by force. Only then will it be possible to bring President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan to the negotiating table through the mediation of the already expanded composition.

Apparently, Ankara and Tehran will have to be involved in the settlement of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Security in the zone of delimitation can be ensured by the deployed peacekeepers. Much will depend in the future, from which countries this contingent will be recruited.
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  1. Dmitry S. Offline Dmitry S.
    Dmitry S. (Dmitry Sanin) 8 October 2020 16: 18
    I asked * Ash ", I asked" Poplar "- get rid of the tree! Shoigu told me.
    Something like that.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 October 2020 16: 36
    It is clear that nothing is clear. But 8 paragraphs.
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 8 October 2020 17: 15
    Again, the wrong interpretation.
    There are enough weapons in Azerbaijan. Three days ago there was a report that the factories of the Ministry of Defense Industry switched to work in three shifts. The production of art shells and ammunition has been established. The lack of fuel and lubricants in Azerbaijan is probably such humor.
    They laughed at me a couple of days ago that they would have to negotiate with Tehran and Ankara.
    The Azerbaijani side's fuse will not end. Until Armenia admits defeat and withdraws troops from at least five regions. I. Aliyev announced the terms of the truce long ago. It is a pity that the author did not bother to read them.
  4. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 8 October 2020 17: 51
    How and when the war in Nagorno-Karabakh will end

    -The war could have ended after Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh ...
    - But the troops of Azerbaijan turned out to be poorly prepared ... - They were unable to conduct offensive operations and recapture their territory from the Armenians ... - obviously they hoped for Turkey ... - But Turkey is in no hurry to help Azerbaijan ...
    - Erdogan does not need this victory of Azerbaijan at all ... - He needs very bloody military events in order to very much compromise the same Azerbaijan in front of the world community and tightly tie it to Turkey (after all, there are mainly Shiite Muslims in Azerbaijan) and without it there may be a "discrepancy" ... ... - And Erdogan also needs Russia to get involved in this conflict ... - And Russia (whatever one may say) can only act on the side of Armenia ... - that is, against Muslims ...
    -That's with this Erdogan and will come to the Caspian ... -As a fighter and protector of Islam ... -And there ... -Turkmenia; Kazakhstan ... -and behind them Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan (mostly Sunni Muslims) ... -the whole operational space ... -Turkish emissaries did a very good job in these states ... -so Erdogan will have there good support ... -and does not give a damn about Erdogan that the United States and China have already settled there ... -all it will be possible to "replay" ... - and rekindle the "second Syria" ...
    - So it is very beneficial for Erdogan that the conflict in Karabakh lasts an infinitely long ...
    1. Boris Eppel Offline Boris Eppel
      Boris Eppel (Boris Eppel) 17 October 2020 13: 19
      This war is beneficial to everyone except Azerbaijan and Armenia.
  5. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 8 October 2020 18: 31
    Never, while greed and ruthlessness are in value ...
  6. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 9 October 2020 06: 07
    The war will end where it began.
  7. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 10 October 2020 11: 04
    How and when the war in Nagorno-Karabakh will end

    If it supports Armenia - a war with Turkey and its allies in the Caucasus - Azerbaijan and Georgia, plus in Syria, not counting the surge of nationalism in the southern federal district. As a derivative - the blocking of the Bosphorus, the Turkish Stream, the supply of bases in Syria through Gibraltar (Iran will be promised the lifting of sanctions), the emergence of NATO military bases along the entire Black Sea coast and in the Caspian. The economy of the Russian Federation will not withstand such a blow, which means that the option disappears.
    Standing up for Azerbaijan and thus recognizing its right to the Nagorno-Karabakh region - precedent justice will inevitably raise the issue of Crimea.
    The first conclusion is that the situation for the Russian Federation has no solution.
    The second conclusion is that Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia are included in the EU's Eastern Partnership program and the decision is in the hands of the EU - the international arbitration court, which, for example, resolved the dispute between Ukraine and Romania on the ownership of the Snake Island. The decision of the International Arbitration Court will be accepted by everyone - Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Armenia, the USA and the EU to whom this decision will give an additional trump card in Ukraine's claims to Crimea.
  8. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 10 October 2020 16: 44
    Good article. And first of all, because the truths lying on the surface are the most faithful. Moreover, as of today, the opponents did agree to negotiate. There were no other options initially. It is a pity that Armenia's uncompromising position has led to an armed "unfreezing" of the situation. And hundreds of people died on both sides. Given that objective analysts, including the author of the publication, foresaw both the course of the military campaign and the stalemate in its endgame. Well, as for the fact that both Baku and Yerevan will shout in unison: we won, it's like after a fight, when they don't wave their fists. A bloody draw with Baku's easy initiative to end uncertainty.
  9. Khachatur Offline Khachatur
    Khachatur 3 November 2020 15: 38
    In March 2021, the centenary of the Treaty of Kars and a vassal of Turkey, Azerbaijan will fight exactly until this date