In the conflict between Baku and Yerevan, Russia may take an unexpected position


The latest aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh has presented Moscow with a serious dilemma. Ankara, openly behind Baku, wants to force the Kremlin to choose between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The problem is that it is in Russia's national interests to maintain constructive and, preferably, friendly relations with both of these countries.


Moscow needs an ally in the person of Armenia, but it absolutely does not need Azerbaijan to turn into its open enemy in the Transcaucasus. Our relations with this former Soviet republic are not very simple today.

On the one hand, Baku is a competitor to Russia in the hydrocarbon trade. Thus, the countries of the European Union are considering Azerbaijani gas as a direct alternative to raw materials from Gazprom. The TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) pipeline will deliver 8 billion cubic meters annually to Italy and another 1 billion to Greece and Bulgaria. In the Turkish market, the domestic monopolist has lost all its positions, yielding them to Azerbaijan, which is already pumping 6 billion cubic meters there through the TANAP gas pipeline. There is fierce competition for oil, which is supplied to the same markets as the Russian one. At the same time, Baku is very unhappy with Moscow for the results of the spring "oil war" with Saudi Arabia, which brought down world quotations of "black gold".

On the other handAzerbaijan is a major buyer of domestic weapons. In recent years, the amount of arms contracts concluded amounted to $ 5 billion. Baku buys Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers, MLRS, S-300 air defense systems, is interested in Su-35 and MiG-35 fighters. Note that, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan pays in cash, petrodollars. On the other hand, Yerevan, as an ally, pays for weapons with targeted loans issued by Russia itself, and the volume of purchases from it is much more modest.

In addition, it should be remembered that both Armenia and Azerbaijan are equally former Soviet republics and are members of the CIS. True, Yerevan preferred to integrate with Russia within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO, while Baku is more focused on military and economic cooperation with Turkey, which is a NATO member. It will not be an exaggeration to say that the current aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is a direct consequence of Azerbaijan's support from Ankara and indirectly from Tel Aviv.

There are a number of other important factors to consider. There is a large Azerbaijani diaspora living in Russia, and some of its representatives have a very large weight in domestic business. For example, the head of the oil company "Lukoil" Vagit Alekperov and the president of the Crocus Group holding Araz Agalarov. In addition, the Kremlin is clearly wary of the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power through street protests. We do not really approve of this. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev is much more "own" for the Russian ruling elite. He is a major, a graduate of MGIMO, his father Heydar Aliyev headed the KGB of the Azerbaijan SSR. Ilham Aliyev is also related to Vladimir Putin by the fact that he has repeatedly become the head of state in the presidential elections and is clearly in no hurry to retire, having ceded power to someone.

In general, Azerbaijan is ruled by people in approximately the same style as in the Kremlin, therefore it is much easier for them to find a common language.
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  1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 5 October 2020 12: 18
    0
    his father Heydar Aliyev headed the KGB of the Azerbaijan SSR

    After all, he was the first secretary of the Central Committee of Azerbaijan.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 October 2020 12: 47
      -1
      He was also a Member of the Politburo and First Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the USSR.
      His candidacy was considered for the General Secretary of the CPSU. In any case, this was spoken about by the enemy voices.
    2. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 5 October 2020 13: 01
      +1
      Chairman of the KGB under the Council of Ministers of the Azerbaijan SSR 1966-1969
    3. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 6 October 2020 09: 26
      0
      This is for understanding the common background and mentality with our national leader
  2. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 5 October 2020 12: 53
    +1
    Quote: Bakht
    He was also a Member of the Politburo and First Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the USSR.
    His candidacy was considered for the General Secretary of the CPSU. In any case, this was spoken about by the enemy voices.

    I agree. If you define a position in the republic - name the highest, if you designate ties with Russia - positions at the union level.
  3. steelmaker Online steelmaker
    steelmaker 5 October 2020 14: 21
    +1
    This is what the policy of the Lavrovsky Foreign Ministry led to. There is no alternative to a peaceful settlement. All issues should be resolved at the negotiating table, etc. Therefore, the problem of Transnistria and Donbass is not being solved. Crimea was taken and taken without any alternative. And the whole question was immediately resolved! Therefore, Azerbaijan will not back down. He will fight for Karabakh to the last. They know that if they sit down for negotiations, then this problem will be solved for 30 years. Why is it possible with Crimea, but not with Karabakh? And Putin has nothing to say!
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 5 October 2020 16: 04
      +3
      Quote: steel maker
      They took Crimea and took it without any alternative. And the whole question was immediately resolved!

      You still demand Guantanamo to return Cuba, Diego Garcia to Mauritius, Malvinas to Argentina, and hang Bush Jr. in Iraq on the same rope as Hussein. The world would immediately come to peace. wassat
  4. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 5 October 2020 14: 27
    +4
    They did something miraculous: Nakhichevan with the Azerbaijani population is an autonomous region of Azerbaijan. N. Karabakh with the Armenian population is also an autonomous region of Azerbaijan ...
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 October 2020 14: 51
      -1
      Popular.
      South Ossetia is economically connected with Georgia. It is unrealistic to have a normal economy across the Caucasian ridge.
      Nagorno-Karabakh is economically connected with Azerbaijan. Hanging the region's economy on the only mountain road is unrealistic. Moreover, the transport of that time was not a KAMAZ, but a cart with oxen.
      Nakhichevan had a predominantly Muslim population. Plus politics. Turkey Ata-Turk is a friendly state. One of the conditions was a common border with Azerbaijan.
      Stalin was clearly not a fool. And for him, economic issues were more important. What about nationality? In the 30s and 40s, two deportations of Azerbaijanis were carried out and the Armenian population of Armenia became predominant.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 5 October 2020 16: 08
        +2
        Quote: Bakht
        Stalin was clearly not a fool.

        But he hated Armenians. After all, not only Chechens and Crimean Tatars were deported. But the Armenians too. And the Georgian border was pushed to the west. Today the eastern regions of Georgia are 70% Armenian. The deportees returned in 56, but the administrative border was not returned back.
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 October 2020 16: 31
          -2
          There is no such data. There are boundaries that we got. According to them, Azerbaijanis live in Eastern Georgia. But Azerbaijan does not put forward any territorial demands.
          Only Armenia has territorial requirements. On the lands of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. In modern realities, changing borders is a war. So Armenia got the war.
      2. OrSharks Offline OrSharks
        OrSharks (Leonid) 5 October 2020 17: 21
        +2
        But how, with a predominantly Muslim population, Nakhichevan becomes an autonomous republic within Azerbaijan (again, a predominant Muslim population!) ???
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 October 2020 18: 07
          +1
          I understand your question. And I assume you know the answer.

          At the beginning of 1921, a referendum was held in the cities and villages of the Nakhichevan Territory through a poll, as a result of which over 90% of the population spoke in favor of Nakhichevan remaining as part of the Azerbaijan SSR as an autonomous republic.

          On March 16, the governments of Soviet Russia and the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Moscow signed an agreement of friendship and brotherhood, according to which the Nakhichevan region "forms an autonomous territory under the protectorate of Azerbaijan, provided that Azerbaijan does not cede this protectorate to a third state."
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 October 2020 15: 48
    +1
    And what is there to think then?

    Armenia with its recent Maidan, centurions, snipers, biological laboratories and the removal of the deserved lifetime president-prime minister.

    Or Azerbaijan, where stability, Strategy 2025, the well-deserved lifelong family of the Aliyevs, gas, partners of the Turks, volunteers, hob-growers and shepherds from southern countries and no Maidan?

    The conclusion is obvious.
    1. Yuliya2209 Offline Yuliya2209
      Yuliya2209 (Yuliya) 5 October 2020 16: 17
      0
      and do not be afraid that Turkey will create a great Ottoman empire by crushing Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan. It turns out that Armenia is now alone opposing this
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 October 2020 16: 37
        +1
        Tired of explaining. Armenia does not oppose anyone. Armenia solves purely its own tasks - the creation of Great Armenia. But without Russian military support, these are all pipe dreams. And how can Turkey "crush Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan"? Add North Caucasus, Bashkiria, Tatarstan, Altai for completeness. And create in your imagination the Great Turan
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 October 2020 16: 39
          0
          In the Russian language there is a difference between the concepts of "ally" and "vassal". I'm afraid that not everyone knows Russian well on this site.
          1. Boris Arbel (Latuha) 6 October 2020 19: 47
            0
            Russia is an ally of Armenia, so what of that. ? And allies (friends) are known in trouble. a zohun wei with such allies
      2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 October 2020 23: 23
        0
        And, housewives are frightened by all these Great Armenians, Turkey, Azerbaijan.
        As the crap begins, they immediately scare you with Endogan the terrorist or biological laboratories.
        And when it ends, they will give money - peace, friendship, chewing gum ...
  6. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 5 October 2020 16: 03
    +2
    It might be so, but Azerbaijan is becoming a gateway for the transfer of terrorists to the Caucasus and ultimately to Russia. This is Erdogan's dream, and today Aliyev is his loyal vassal.
  7. isofat Offline isofat
    isofat (isofat) 5 October 2020 17: 58
    +2
    The former Soviet republics must return to the Russian Federation. Something independent states they fail.

    PS. Listening to the ravings of a liberal trash is harmful.
  8. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 5 October 2020 18: 03
    +2
    Quote: Bakht
    No such data.

    The change in borders in 46 led to the fact that Kazbek and Elbrus were in the depths of Georgian territory. At 56 it was liquidated, but Crimea and Donbass were transferred to Ukraine, all the regions bordering on Kazakhstan, plus Chkalovskaya - to Kazakhstan. Chkalovskaya, now Orenburgskaya, under Brezhnev all the same was returned to the RSFSR. The Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic also doubled its Krasnodar lands.
  9. Dima Dima_2 Offline Dima Dima_2
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 5 October 2020 18: 28
    0
    So what to do? Sit on the priest straight?
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 5 October 2020 21: 29
      +2
      I remembered the joke:

      - Why are you late for work?
      - I left the house late.
      - Why didn't you come out earlier?
      - It was already too late to leave earlier.

      It is so similar in this case. sad
  10. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 5 October 2020 21: 33
    0
    We should get out of there and put up automatic turrets along the entire border. Let them do what they want, and the "occupiers" will dump them.
  11. Elen_msk Offline Elen_msk
    Elen_msk (Inna Belkina) 6 October 2020 06: 04
    0
    Some kind of children's article, so they explain to children)
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 6 October 2020 09: 24
      0
      Well, not all great geopolitics are from nature wink
  12. Radikal Offline Radikal
    Radikal 6 October 2020 12: 03
    +1
    President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev is much more "own" for the Russian ruling elite. He is a major, a graduate of MGIMO, his father Heydar Aliyev headed the KGB of the Azerbaijan SSR.

    Unfortunately, the signs listed by the author of the "peculiarity" of political characters from the former republics for some time now have no meaning, including within the country. Suffice it to recall the former Chairman of the KGB of the Georgian SSR Shevardnadze, and the graduate of the Moscow State University Nino Burjanadze ... And in general, if we recall the well-known "our", as well as "foreign" graduates of elite Soviet, in particular Moscow humanitarian universities, I am afraid that a regiment of anti-Soviet, nationalists, and other agents of Western influence will be recruited. This suggests that an anti-state generation was being raised in these universities. sad
  13. iomoe Offline iomoe
    iomoe (Andrei) 6 October 2020 15: 32
    0
    It was necessary to fairly solve the problem of Karabakh, and not muddle up for thirty years, there would not be such a dilemma now.
  14. Peter Rusin Offline Peter Rusin
    Peter Rusin (Peter Rusin) 6 October 2020 17: 14
    0
    In general, it is necessary, as V.V. Zhirinovsky, the issue is to be decided fundamentally. As under the tsar-father of the general-governorship or, as under the USSR, the Military District, the Army. On the ground only local government !!
    1. Peter Rusin Offline Peter Rusin
      Peter Rusin (Peter Rusin) 6 October 2020 17: 16
      0
      When asked about UN resolutions, the answer is the same: We are very in solidarity with your resolutions, we like them, but the order will be ours !!
  15. Seal Offline Seal
    Seal (Sergey Petrovich) 7 October 2020 16: 02
    0
    Moscow needs an ally in the person of Armenia

    What for ? Why? Are we dying without Armenia?
  16. Seal Offline Seal
    Seal (Sergey Petrovich) 7 October 2020 16: 13
    +1
    Quote: kriten
    Azerbaijan becomes the gateway for the transfer of terrorists to the Caucasus and ultimately to Russia

    It's strange you write: To the Caucasus and ultimately to Russia. And the Caucasus is not Russia? Or terrorists make their way first to Georgia, and then (of course) to Russia? And what kind of terrorists can get through Azerbaijan to us ??? Azerbaijan (besides us) borders only on Iran, Armenia and Georgia. The border with Armenia is closed. We still haven't seen terrorists from the Shiite Hezbollah from the word AT ALL. The rest of the terrorists are Sunnis. For whom Shiite Iran and Azerbaijan are worse enemies than Christians. That is, terrorists like ISIS, Al-Qaeda or Nusra will not get to us through Iran and Azerbaijan.
    Can you give an example, how many terrorists do you personally know who over the past 10 years came to us in Russia through Azerbaijan?

    This is Erdogan's dream, and today Aliyev is his loyal vassal

    Azerbaijan to the last was for the preservation of the USSR. And Armenia, like Georgia, I recall, was even banned from holding Gorbachev's referendum on the preservation of the USSR on the territory of their republics. Azerbaijan fought for 30 years to become our vassal. He even joined the CSTO. But after making sure that we have a pro-Armenian position in the CSTO too, in 1999 he did not renew his membership in the CSTO. So, what do you blame Azerbaijan? That he was disappointed in us? But history shows that Azerbaijan had every right to this disappointment.
  17. Seal Offline Seal
    Seal (Sergey Petrovich) 7 October 2020 16: 17
    0
    Quote: Oo sarcasm
    But he hated the Armenians

    And therefore, after the war, he allowed the reporting of Armenians from all over the world to Armenia. To have someone to hate ???
  18. KYYC Offline KYYC
    KYYC (OXOTHuK) 10 October 2020 09: 48
    0
    In the photo, friends are sitting.