Export of wheat and weapons will not allow Russia to get off the "oil and gas needle"


A few days ago, President Putin, addressing the Federation Council, delighted the general public with the fact that, it turns out, Russia got off the oil and gas needle. Is this really so, and is there a catch in one "needle"?


The Russian president stated the following verbatim:

Our economics, the budget is no longer critically dependent on fluctuations in oil prices. The share of oil and gas budget revenues will increase (in 2021) to almost 70%.

It sounds, of course, great, but I would like to understand the reasons for this "economic miracle". We have been constantly talking about "getting off the oil and gas needle" for the last twenty years, and every time, like for the first time. The share of income from hydrocarbon exports is about two-thirds of the federal budget, that is, this dependence can be objectively called critical. And then suddenly, after a six-week "oil war" with Saudi Arabia and the problems arranged for Gazprom by American competitors in the European gas market, we suddenly jumped off the "needle".

One gets the impression that this is a rather clumsy attempt to pass off "zrada" as "overmigration." Due to the fact that the country began to receive less income from the export of hydrocarbons, we did not begin to produce any more high-tech and other products that are in demand on the world market, right? Of course, Russia is rich not only in oil, gas or metals. Some experts cite food, fresh water and weapons as alternatives to raw materials. But can they, by themselves, replace the export of hydrocarbons?

For food, indeed, we have good Prospects: the volume of arable land is increasing, harvests are growing. True, the quality of domestic wheat is somewhat inferior, for example, to European wheat, so you have to compensate for it with its quantity. In terms of grain exports, Russia has been in the first place in the past few years, which already causes concern among competitors from the United States and the European Union. Fears are expressed abroad that in the future the Kremlin will be able to use the "valve on the grain pipeline" for political pressure on Western countries. Therefore, there is already talk that it would be nice to create a kind of "grain OPEC", within which quotas will be imposed on Russia.

Not everything is clear about the export of fresh water either. So, China with a population of 99 billion has long licked its lips on our Baikal. On the great lake, they began to build a plant in which water was to be bottled and shipped for use by the inhabitants of the Celestial Empire. But in practice, it turned out that this plant belongs to 1% of the citizen of the PRC Sun Zhenjun and only 2% of his wife Olesya Mulchak, who have already been held in a criminal case on the theft of Russian forest in the amount of XNUMX billion rubles. More about this case we told earlier. It is hardly worth expecting a respectful attitude towards our natural resources from such “effective owners”.

Arms exports are also an important area of ​​the Russian economy. However, domestic defense enterprises are constantly subject to US sanctions. In addition, Washington directly targets the end buyers of Russian weapons. And do not forget that we have another formidable competitor. Traditionally, Russia has been the world's second largest weapons producer, but this year, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), it yielded that position to China.

It turns out that in each direction there are a lot of problems, and none of them can be considered a panacea for “getting off the oil and gas needle”. Strictly speaking, the question is not at all about replacing one export product with another. All "plots" have long been divided, everywhere there are serious players who have various levers of pressure on competitors that can cut off the air for them. It is necessary to change the very model of the Russian economy. An active economic and political the integration process in the post-Soviet space, aimed at creating its own capacious market, as well as the reindustrialization of our country, which should dominate it.
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  1. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 26 September 2020 12: 25
    +2
    - What should be done in a nuclear explosion?
    - Put on a white sheet and slowly crawl towards the cemetery.
    - And why slowly?
    - In order not to panic.

    To finish off the remnants of the model and start actively integrating with Russophobes ... brilliant, but why reindustrialization in this situation?
    Markets are not being created now, but are protected by force of arms, blackmail and sanctions, so we need not create markets, but put things in order on our own, ineptly squandered, "given with a surcharge" to outsiders. You need to smoothly drive them out of it - produce it here, or you won't be there, because of the preferences to those who produce here, and this is partly starting to happen ...
    Omsktransmash has fully automated the production of tracks, and in this vein, it is necessary to automate the rest of the state. enterprises. There is machine-tool building, but it should develop into robotic production lines along with the development of unique products manufactured in the Russian Federation and become a priority task for Reshetnikov and Manturov. Even Khrushchev said -

    rockets are produced on stream, like sausage on an automatic line

    - but this is not entirely true, the production of all products important for the state should be robotized in the first place. And for this you do not need to break anything, just do something that is not, not hoping for the West, which fig will help ...
  2. Dima Dima_2 Offline Dima Dima_2
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 26 September 2020 12: 46
    0
    Give the program of machine-tool construction) As well as technological superiority) Well, so that it all works, bringing the population to half a billion
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  6. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 26 September 2020 13: 33
    +4
    Another example of fakemetism from a "good journalist" and a "literate man" lol
    Skipping "not" and we get the exact opposite result. Where does the quote come from? smile Or is there something wrong with hearing? Echo of Moscow and Radio Liberty nervously smoke on the sidelines laughing

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuyeV7N1ksI&t=110s

    It would seem, what if it's just a typo? what But no...

    It sounds, of course, great, but I would like to understand the reasons for this "economic miracle". We have been constantly talking about "getting off the oil and gas needle" for the last twenty years, and every time, like for the first time. The share of income from hydrocarbon exports is about two-thirds of the federal budget, that is, this dependence can be objectively called critical

    It is even ridiculous to discuss further rantings of the steering wheel.
    1. Dear sofa expert. 2 October 2020 23: 54
      +2
      It is even ridiculous to discuss further rantings of the steering wheel.

      I agree with you, because the Russian economy is by no means limited to foreign trade, and the federal budget is only a part of the consolidated budget (including regional and municipal), and a significant part of fuel and energy exports is oil products and other industrial products.
      The author of the article, to put it mildly, is not entirely competent in this matter.
  7. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 26 September 2020 13: 48
    +4
    The author is at odds with mathematics and the Russian language. Oil and gas revenues will increase 70%, and WILL NOT REACH 70% of the budget. The main budget income is currently sales tax. Those same 5-10-20% of the purchase price that go to the RF Ministry of Finance AT THE MOMENT OF THE CHECK PASSAGE. This provides 60% of the budget (in the USA - all 90%). That is, the budget of Russia depends more on the level of salaries. Well, oil and weapons money can be spent on bridges and roads. Nice addition.
    And the loss of oil and gas revenues is really uncritical TODAY, because the budget is balanced to within a trillion (last year there was a trillion of unused money, this year is expected with the same deficit).
  8. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 26 September 2020 14: 30
    -2
    Not everything is clear about the export of fresh water either. So, China with a population of 99 billion has long licked its lips on our Baikal. On the great lake, they began to build a plant in which water was to be bottled and shipped for consumption by the inhabitants of the Celestial Empire. But in practice, it turned out that this plant belongs to XNUMX% of the Chinese citizen Sun Zhenjun.

    - We started to build a plant on Lake Baikal (there is no such lake-sea in the whole world) in Russia; and suddenly it turned out that it belongs to .... a Chinese, who is a citizen of China ... -What news !!!
    -And the people of Russia were asked ... -Does anyone agree that China build its own plant on our unique Baikal? - Personally, I am totally against !!!!!!!!!
    - Personally, I would not be surprised that when the plant is built; it turns out that part of the territory of the Baikal coast ... - also belongs to China and ordinary residents of Russia are not allowed there ... - After all, this is "the territory of a Chinese factory" ...
    -Ah, yes ... - after all, the Chinese can take on this "their" plant a hundred local residents for the most primitive work (after all, technologists, engineers and laboratory assistants ... - there, of course ... - will be the Chinese) ...
    - Oh, yes, China will pay some money ... maybe to the governor (well, to Moscow ... of course it was paid) ... - But in this case too ... - most likely China will cost (in exchange for money ) ... -the delivery of their Chinese stale goods and Chinese used construction and auto equipment ... - How the Irkutsk people and all the inhabitants of Russia will be "happy" about all this ...
    -Ah .. yes ... -because China can build some kind of road there (along which he himself will carry bottles of water) ...
    - And the fact that this is the "development" of our Baikal by China ... is the most real and undisguised continuation of the expansion of the Russian territory by China ... - this is nonsense, which is not worth paying attention to ...
    - In general ... - It would be just right for China to build a pipeline (water supply), supplying water from Lake Baikal to China ... - But China has long understood ... - why should he waste time on trifles and wasted ... - because there is a real opportunity to get Baikal as a whole ... with the entire adjacent Russian territory ... - It's not far off ...
  9. bubasa Offline bubasa
    bubasa (Konstantin) 26 September 2020 14: 58
    0
    say "needle sticks" ... that's who is on the needle ... a drug dealer selling a drug (oil) or a drug addict (oil consumer)? I hear the brains of the liberda and other idiots gritting because they themselves do not know how to think ... and this idea was put into their heads, trying to understand this example, the flawed experience cognitive dissonance ... but it will not reach the mentally defective, they will reread the mantra "Putin must leave," they will fuck each other in the brain and hide in their dovecote;) laughing
    1. demo Offline demo
      demo (Van) 26 September 2020 21: 20
      +1
      Here's the thing.
      The EU consumed (before this fucking pandemic) 1 billion tons of oil a year. In the Russian Federation, 560 million tons are produced per year. Half is recycled at home, half abroad.
      No more than 100 million tonnes are delivered to the EU from the Russian Federation. In addition to the Russian Federation, oil goes there from the Middle East, USA, Africa, etc. Naturally, the EU is critically dependent on oil supplies.
      Stop supplying and everything will freeze. Therefore, they (Europeans) are anxiously "scratching their turnips." And they try to solve the problem with rape (laughing).
      But if the EU, China, India and a couple of dozen other countries refuse, for some reason, our oil, then the industry's losses (read the budget) will amount to more than 67 billion dollars. At the same time, it is necessary to sharply reduce production. For the tank farm will fill up in half a month. And stopping oil production is the collapse of everything and everyone. And not only oil production. Here and the railway, and construction and social services and a bunch of interfaced and related industries.

      Now, abstractly.
      A drug addict approaches a huckster and demands to release him a "dose" not for 100 bucks, but for 5.
      Have you presented? Maybe this? Say no! And I will answer - maybe it was. Just two months ago. Exactly so, the "addict" demanded oil not at $ 100 per barrel, but at $ 5. And the whole world went nuts from this!
  10. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 27 September 2020 09: 27
    +1
    It turns out there are states that are sharpened specifically for export. Here the point is different. What corporations get from exports. And what the state gets from corporations. The role of the Central Bank in our state. Many banks work only for themselves. And they pay only in taxes. And their role in communication between industrial enterprises is extremely low.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 27 September 2020 12: 46
      0
      Quote: Nikolay Malyugin
      Many banks work only for themselves. And they pay only in taxes.

      Duc, so it should be. Or will you support Honduras employees from your salary?
      Everyone works only for themselves. The state unfastens taxes from everyone, for not letting the infrastructure collapse. Army and bureaucracy. If she starts taking over taxes, everyone will get worse. Besides the bureaucracy.