Kuril question: Abe's successor will have to deal with millions of disgruntled Japanese


At the end of August, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unexpectedly announced his upcoming resignation. Health problems were named as the reason: he was diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. It is possible that before peptic ulcer policy brought up the issue of the "northern territories", which he never managed to solve, despite the solemn oath given at his father's grave.


Recall that in Tokyo our Kuril Islands, inherited by the USSR as a result of the Second World War, are considered "northern territories". Japan's carefully cultivated national dream is to return to their "home harbor". But doing so after the recent changes in the Russian Constitution will be even more problematic. Abe's successor will have to deal with millions of angry Japanese people. You can understand what some of them have on their minds by reading the comments on Yahoo News Japan.

There is nothing but war to return the "northern territories" to us. Russia can be defeated by hitting nuclear missiles, if not at its capital, then at least at military bases

- this is the main message of the published opinions.

Other "couch generals" advise to wait until Russia itself collapses under the yoke of sanctions. Still others propose to unite with the United States even more closely to speed up this process. It is clear that all these comments on the Internet have nothing to do with Tokyo's official position. Not all Japanese society is so radically disposed, there are enough such "scribblers" in any country, including ours. Nevertheless, such reports indicate a certain public demand that affects Japanese politics, foreign and domestic. Therefore, I would like to answer in absentia to some citizens of the Land of the Rising Sun.

At first, Russia does not have any “problem of the northern territories”, only Japan has it. We have a group of islands, a legitimate war prize from the militaristic Japan defeated in the Second World War, an official ally of the Third Reich. The issue of sovereignty over the Kuriles cannot be a subject of discussion.

Secondly, in the event of a "strike by nuclear missiles", at least at Moscow, at least at Russian military bases, the island state itself will become a target for a counter-nuclear strike by the RF Ministry of Defense and, most likely, will cease to exist. Why the dead Kuril Islands?

Thirdlyif Japan begins to participate more actively in the regime of sanctions pressure, it will itself close the last road to the desired islands. Let us recall that the Kremlin expressed its readiness to allow Tokyo to jointly participate in the economic development of the Kuril Islands, which are rich in natural resources. An aggressive foreign policy will hardly make such cooperation with the Japanese possible.

But seriously, the issue of the status of Kaliningrad, the Kuriles or Crimea cannot be positively resolved in favor of Germany, Japan or Ukraine, since this will open a Pandora's box and become a prologue to global geopolitical upheavals. The maximum that Tokyo can really count on is a regime of joint economic use of the islands of the Small Ridge with Russia's unconditional political sovereignty over them. This is the only way Moscow can keep its eastern flank.

It will be good for Japan itself if the new Prime Minister pursues a more moderate foreign policy and does not rewrite the country's current "pacifist" Constitution in favor of further militarization of the country. However, the "Russian threat" and "Russian occupiers" are too convenient a topic for domestic political discourse to seriously expect that someone will voluntarily give it up.
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  1. Aksel2 Offline Aksel2
    Aksel2 (Alexander Z.) 12 September 2020 10: 54
    +1
    Usually I do not comment on this topic, but here I will still take a chance.

    There will be no "joint economy" in the Kuril Islands for a banal reason. The Japanese will not invest in the economy of a state that they do not consider friendly. Joint farming was Abe's idea and it will go away with him.

    The new prime minister will treat Russia more coolly (to put it mildly) anyway.

    And what about the pacifist constitution, militarization is their sovereign right. Here Japan will only look at one side - the United States of America.

    When recently asked a Japanese Foreign Ministry official if it was necessary to act with an eye on the Chinese and Koreans, he bluntly stated that their opinion was not interested.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 September 2020 11: 37
      0
      Quote: Aksel2
      And what about the pacifist constitution, militarization is their sovereign right. Here Japan will only look at one side - the United States of America.
      When recently asked a Japanese Foreign Ministry official if it was necessary to act with an eye on the Chinese and Koreans, he bluntly stated that their opinion was not interested.

      Yes, but then Japan will have to bear the entire burden of responsibility for its sovereign policy.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 September 2020 11: 43
      +1
      Quote: Aksel2
      There will be no "joint economy" in the Kuril Islands for a banal reason. The Japanese will not invest in the economy of a state that they do not consider friendly. Joint farming was Abe's idea and it will go away with him.

      I wonder how much money Japan has invested in the Chinese economy? Is the PRC a friendly state for it? And against whom Japan is arming together with the United States, do you explain?
      Maybe you should have thought better before speaking on this topic?
      1. Aksel2 Offline Aksel2
        Aksel2 (Alexander Z.) 12 September 2020 12: 50
        +2
        You ignore the context. Japan's main investments in the Chinese economy came in the late seventies and eighties.
        Against the background of a common friendship against the Soviet Union, of course. Markets were opened for China, technology and investment were provided. But no one was going to raise him to such a monster as he is now. They just didn't turn off the tap on time.
        Until the end of the 1992s, Japan and China had a pretty decent relationship. In XNUMX, the Japanese emperor Akihito visited the PRC.
        In return, Japan received the Chinese market until the early 2010s. Although under certain conditions. In contrast to the "joint management" in the Kuril Islands, the benefits are obvious. Nobody will just waste money.
        But everything comes to an end ... Strengthened China began to offer its claims in the neighboring waters. If Malaysia, Vietnam or the poor Philippines had nothing special to oppose to it, the Japanese and Taiwanese went on principle. It should be understood that many coastal areas there feed on the sea. Resources are limited. Either the Chinese fishermen make a profit, or the Japanese. That's the essence of the batch.
        If the Japanese were preparing to fight for the Kuril Islands, they would focus on landing craft. But the newest UDCs are being built by Russia. Well, China too. In Japan, they just started talking about them.
        42 amphibious vehicles and 17 Osprey tiltroplanes that Japan bought overseas are definitely not for the Kuriles, because such forces can only capture a beer stall. But for the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands, this is just right.
        1. Aksel2 Offline Aksel2
          Aksel2 (Alexander Z.) 12 September 2020 13: 15
          +1
          Besides, you forget another important point. Much of Japan's exports and imports go through the South China Sea, which Beijing claims.
          Southeast Asia has been the target of Chinese expansion for centuries. In Malaysia, a quarter of the population is ethnic Chinese, in Thailand 15%, if I'm not confused. Singapore is almost entirely Chinese. At the same time, the Chinese are traditionally disliked there and perceived as the fifth column. In Indonesia 25 years ago, when the dictator Suharto was overthrown, there were monstrous anti-Chinese pogroms. And, I repeat, almost all Japanese export-import goes by South-East Asia. Here are vital interests.
          The world does not revolve around Russia, everything is much more complicated.
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 12 September 2020 12: 38
    +2
    Judging by the photos, are the advanced Japanese still running around in metal helmets?
  3. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 12 September 2020 18: 58
    -2
    Kuril question: Abe's successor will have to deal with millions of disgruntled Japanese

    - Millions of disgruntled Japanese ??? - Well, well ... - Yes, there are already one and a half times more Japanese than Russians ... - so this Abe was still lucky with the number of dissatisfied ...
    - And tomorrow there will be twice as many Japanese people as Russians ... - and there will be even more dissatisfied people ...
    - And the day after tomorrow ... - the Japanese will be three times more than the Russians ... and ... and ... and so on ... - so the Japanese have a great chance in twenty or thirty years to get these coveted Russian islands ... - as a gift for patience ...
    - Only now the "tiny question" remains open ... - and who will get the long-awaited Russian territory faster from the hungry ??? - Japanese; Chinese ... - someone else ???
    - Probably, it is already possible to "place bets" ... - And ... most likely ... - already the current generation of Russians will receive an answer to "this" ...
  4. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 12 September 2020 20: 00
    +1
    ... this is a regime of joint economic use of the islands of the Small Ridge with Russia's unconditional political sovereignty over them. This is the only way Moscow can keep its eastern flank.

    And they squeeze it straight? Are there continuous kamikaze attacks? Do we lose hundreds of people every day in the confrontation with Japan?
    Stop pleasing your inferiority complex. Now the infrastructure of the islands, military and civilian, is being improved. They are building a full-fledged three-kilometer runway, a mooring structure for ships and submarines, and housing for military personnel. We made an optical internet connection.
    And if anyone should be afraid, it is the Japanese. If Russia closes the quotas for thousands of Japanese cooperatives for fishing in the Russian exclusive economic zone, hundreds of thousands of Japanese people will go hungry.
  5. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 13 September 2020 10: 49
    +1
    Disgruntled Japanese, this is Japan's problem. Better to let the Kremlin think that they will have to deal with tens of millions of disgruntled Russians if the Kremlin merges the Kuril Islands, or part of them, and the rating of the guarantor is far from the past.