Kremlin will be forced to pay a high price for Navalny

The story of the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, regardless of who is actually behind this crime, can become the “swan song” of our “national treasure”. Unfortunately, this is not an exaggeration.

It would seem, where is the oppositionist, and where is Gazprom? But, alas, in modern geopolitics everything is tied into a tight knot. As you know, after the events of 2014 in Ukraine, the domestic monopolist made a bet on the construction of new supply routes bypassing Nezalezhnaya. Regarding the gloomy prospects of the Turkish Stream, we in detail told earlier. With Nord Stream 2, things are even worse.

The US intends to clear the European gas market for its LNG suppliers. It should be noted that the EU is also interested in diversifying energy supplies, so in recent years it has invested heavily in the construction of LNG terminals on the coast, as well as in the development of gas transportation infrastructure within the union. Brussels welcomes the commissioning of new gas pipelines, for example, TANAP-TAP, the promising Baltic Pipe and EastMed. The attitude towards the Russian "Nord Stream-2" is somewhat different.

First, the European Commission extended the Third Energy Package to the pipeline, leaving one of its two lines empty. President Trump then imposed sanctions on the pipeline and contractors immediately abandoned the project. “Nord Stream-2” remains a dead weight at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. With great difficulty redirected from the Far East, "Academician Chersky" still cannot proceed with its completion due to the risk of falling under new restrictive measures from Washington. It is highly likely that Angela Merkel will not receive the gas pipeline within the timeframe promised by President Putin. The German Chancellor has consistently stood for Nord Stream 2, since she made great political your bid. But the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny could really be the last straw that will tip the cup against this energy project. German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said on this occasion:

The Chancellor is of the opinion that nothing can be ruled out from the outset.

It is clear that the last one to whom it is profitable to persecute Navalny with "Novichok" is the Kremlin. But the designated extreme Russia will have to pay a high price. Very high. Imagine what happens if Angela Merkel proposes to freeze construction for an indefinite period of time, for example, during the investigation into the poisoning of an oppositionist.

At first, money from the federal budget allocated for construction will be thrown into the wind. Rather, the contractors have already earned theirs, but the country will have zero profit from the unemployed at the bottom of the pipeline, or rather, only losses.

Secondly, Russia will be tightly tied for gas transit to Ukraine. It is worth recalling that "effective managers" managed to sign an extremely unprofitable contract with Naftogaz, according to which Gazprom is supposed to pump 60 billion cubic meters this year, and 40 billion in the next four. The tariff is already high, but according to the innovations, for exceeding the volume you have to pay daily at a higher tariff. The state corporation will start getting money every day, especially from next year, when the volumes specified in the contract will significantly decrease. There is no doubt that in 4,5 years a new transit agreement will be concluded on even more draconian terms.

Thirdly, there is no guarantee that such an agreement will be concluded or actually implemented. A lot can change over the next 5 years. Gas prices will rise, Europe is diversifying its sources of supply even more, and the United States will complete the development of its export infrastructure for LNG. By that time, all conditions will be ripe to remove Gazprom from the European market through Kiev, to which the monopolist will be firmly tied by a transit pipe. First, more money will be pumped out of the state corporation to repair the dilapidated Ukrainian gas transmission system, and then this direction may be closed altogether. For example, to arrange a terrorist attack on a pipe or to impose sanctions on the purchase of Russian gas for some other reason. Let's say that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will launch a full-scale offensive against the unrecognized republics of Donbass and leave the Kremlin no choice but to intervene, for which it will pay.

The freezing of Nord Stream 2 for an indefinitely long period, the actual loss of the Turkish market and the loss of Ukrainian transit are a complete fiasco, especially if we recall the problems at Power of Siberia-1. After that, Gazprom will no longer be able to remain the same, and its fate practically a foregone conclusion: the fragmentation and privatization of what else is profitable.
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  1. We need to sell LNG on the spot market, and rusty pipes are a hassle!
    1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 8 September 2020 11: 43
      It’s too hard for the Kremlin strategists, and now it’s too late, we’re too bogged down, we can only hope that this is very difficult and thoughtful 10 moves ahead.
  2. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 8 September 2020 12: 06
    Only if the Kremlin, as always, fights back with phrases incomprehensible to the West from the movie about the cat Boniface. Guys, let's live together ... But he is unlikely to be able to say something more intelligible. It is painfully great a habit to obediently tuck his tail when shouting from the West.
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 September 2020 12: 16
    Eh .. And around the article that it's not scary, Gazprom has outplayed everyone, and so on.

    In fact, Gazprom is a forge of cadres of officials and gold awards have already been received. And there is a way out - to raise prices in Russia. Everywhere it gets cheaper, but here it gets more expensive ...
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 8 September 2020 13: 57
      With hydrocarbons, the world's undercover games are still the same, here it is always easy for a non-specialist to get lost and not understand the essence (which is what is available for a given level of reasoning at the level of a cry: - "everything is gone, the client is leaving ..."). The problem of Russia is that its wealth is in the hands of a handful of individuals with often private interests ... So, without bargaining, and always losing on ships, they pay billions of dollars in fines. And who is responsible for such losses - no one, even those "managers" are getting beyond the clouds ... The management system of state enterprises has long been bent towards the enrichment of a small part of the population; hands and noodles with soap bubbles have been flooding the eyes of the people of the Russian Federation for a long time ...
    2. margo Offline margo
      margo (margo) 15 September 2020 17: 53
      This is another multi-move - operation "Y".
  4. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 8 September 2020 21: 02
    Russia will be tightly tied in gas transit to Ukraine.

    It's funny. It is Ukraine that is tightly tied to Gazprom.
    Remember the constitutional change? The primacy of Russian laws over international treaties? One stroke of Putin's pen - and there is no transit. Not a single court, even the good Stockholm one, will be able to challenge the POLITICAL decision, just as it has not challenged any of the sanctions so far. Since sanctions against Sweden will be applied against the court's decision. Although it is a small country, every billion in trade is important.
  5. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 12 September 2020 17: 13
    First, you need to remove the most effective managers from Gazprom, headed by Miller!) Payment of 4,5 billion dollars in court to Ukraine. Payment in court to the Poles 1,5 billion. Dollars ... Failure in the construction of South Stream, gas was not needed by anyone. A failure with Nord Stream -1 can only be driven through a pipe half of the gas ... Nord Stream 2 is a complete fiasco ... In general, it's hard to disagree with the author of the article ...