Three wars that could start soon


While we, tired of reports from "coronavirus fronts", are watching with unquenchable interest the dramatic events in Minsk or new outbreaks of violence in the United States, at least three acute conflicts are brewing on the planet, threatening to turn into open military confrontation. Each of them has its own special, unlike other reasons and reasons, completely different participants and a huge "scattering" on the world geographical map.


Nevertheless, each of these conflicts, having reached the level of open hostilities, threatens not only to turn into a bloody local battle, but also to become a “fuse-cord” capable of igniting a regional, if not world-class military fire.

Egypt vs Ethiopia


Reasons and reasons: The fact that the war between these countries is only a matter of time, many analysts with a high degree of confidence declared several years ago. In fact, it all began in 2011, when the construction of a structure began on the Blue Nile, which, as usual in Africa, has a pompous name and a truly grandiose scale - the Great Ethiopian Rebirth Dam (EPWD). To whom - rebirth, and to whom - death. In any case, this is exactly what they say in Egypt, for which this "construction of the century" will mean the loss of not only a fifth of the electricity generated by the Aswan hydroelectric power station, but also no less than 40% of the Nile water, which is critically important for the local agriculture, which is already in deplorable condition. After all, 90% of the life-giving moisture this country, already having one of the lowest levels of water supply in the world, receives just from the Nile. Ethiopia claims that with the help of the "electrification of the whole country" its more than one hundred million people will finally be able to escape from poverty.

Theater and the possible course of hostilities: their readiness to use force in the event of Ethiopia's refusal from this megaproject has been repeatedly declared in Cairo, as well as its readiness to "fight for the waters of the Nile to the last drop of blood." The problem is that between the two warring states there is Sudan, which does not at all smile at the prospect of becoming an arena for ground battles, or, at least, a territory for the offensive and retreat of enemy armies. Egypt wants to win its neighbors over to its side, but so far it has failed. It is precisely because of the stubborn neutrality of the Sudanese that problems may arise with the launching of missile and bomb attacks on the Vozrozhdenie dam, which Cairo has already threatened many times. If Sudan closes its airspace for the Egyptian Air Force (and it most likely will), then a long-range raid on Ethiopia through the Red Sea and Eritrea may well end in failure. Moreover, a successful blow to the dam of the reservoir, which will already be filled (even if only partially), will lead to a colossal catastrophe not only for Ethiopia, but also for Sudan and Egypt. For the latter, first of all, because the water released from all the reservoirs on the Nile will inflict the strongest blow on this particular country.

Interests of Russia: for our country, such prospects are unprofitable, as they say, from any side. Both Egypt and Ethiopia have always been very promising markets for the supply of Soviet and Russian weapons. Today, Cairo is the leader in this matter, however, recently, Addis Ababa is trying to keep up, taking a course on the rapid increase in cooperation with our country, and not only in the militarytechnical area, but also in many others. The industrialization and prosperity of Ethiopia will certainly benefit Russia - but not at the cost of hunger in Egypt. The most unpleasant thing is that if it comes to a military clash, our country will have to choose one of the sides and will inevitably suffer losses in its positions and interests in North Africa and the Middle East. Anyway, who needs another war in this region, where the fighting is going on in Libya, Syria and other places?

Turkey vs Greece


Reasons and reasons: The two countries mentioned above are, alas, among those, the enmity between which has centuries-old, if not millennial roots. If we talk specifically about today, then the reason for a possible collision, of course, is the colossal deposits of energy resources discovered in the disputed waters between the islands of Cyprus and Crete, as well as the intentions of the states that are members of the so-called Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum to conduct production there " blue fuel "and its subsequent transportation both to Europe and North Africa, without any participation in these projects of Ankara. All this categorically contradicts the aggressive and expansionist pursuit of the current Turkish President Recep Erdogan. policy in the spirit of neo-Ottomanism, its attempts to return the country to its former greatness and prestige. And purely mercantile interests, in this case billions of dollars, cannot be discounted. In any case, according to Erdogan himself, "Turkey will not make any concessions, but will take everything that is due to it in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Seas."

Theater and the possible course of hostilities: the place where the armed forces of the two warring countries can clash, most likely, can become either Cyprus, which is the subject of their long-standing quarrels, or the nearby islets. At the same time, the first move will probably be for Ankara, which is well understood in Athens. So, just yesterday it became known about the transfer of Greek troops to the island of Kastelorizo, which Turkey suddenly declared a "disputed territory". However, combat contact with the participation of the Turkish and Greek navies and air forces seems much more likely than ground operations. As a matter of fact, the first collision (in the most literal sense of the word) has already occurred when on August 12, two combat frigates, the Greek Limnos (F 451) and the Turkish Kemalreis (F 247), did not miss each other in the Mediterranean. Fortunately, this incident did not develop further, but it may still be. In any case, the fact that Ankara is seriously afraid of air attacks on its territory is evidenced by its desire to speed up the supply of Russian S-400 air defense systems and, possibly, even Su-35 fighters.

Russia's interests: let's be frank - any conflict between NATO member states, which could potentially lead to the weakening, if not the collapse (albeit partial) of this military bloc, is definitely in our country’s hands. Moreover, Greece's expansionist plans aimed at the European energy market run counter to our national interests in the most categorical way. Yes, and Turkey can sell a lot ... On the other hand, too much strengthening of Ankara's positions is unprofitable for Moscow. Problems with Turkish "partners", which have recently been increasingly losing their sense of reality, are already above the roof - in Syria, in Libya, or in the Caucasus. And the armed conflict in the Mediterranean by itself cannot bring anything good. Better without him.

China vs. Taiwan. Or rather, against the USA


Reasons and reasons: The Asia-Pacific region is a hotbed of world tension, one might say, traditionally. Nonetheless, today fuel is added to the fire of the eternally smoldering conflicts there, thickly mixed with long-standing mutual grievances and territorial claims, the desire of the United States to hinder the strengthening of China as much as possible. Beijing, for its part, reacts more and more harshly to such attempts and is about to decide to show the Americans who is the boss in the region. The "Taiwan question" seems to many in the PRC an excellent opportunity for just such a minimally risky and maximally effective demonstration. Speaking of the "inevitable reunification of China," which implies a return to Taiwan's "native shores", Comrade Xi certainly demonstrates with all his might that this is exclusively a "peace process." Nevertheless, Beijing refrained from military action just as much as was necessary in the interests of high geopolitics - so as not to “lose face” as a peaceful state respecting international law. The "trade war" with Washington has significantly changed the emphasis on what is considered acceptable in the Celestial Empire. And its current intensity can even untie the hands of the supporters of force actions there. In fact, with its incessant attacks on its Chinese comrades and constant threats to "punish", "restrain" Beijing or "put an end to its expansionist aspirations in the region," Washington itself is pushing its opponents to be proactive. And you simply cannot imagine a better place for this than the island that continues to "abut". With Hong Kong sorted out - is Taiwan next in line?

The theater and the possible course of hostilities: there is no doubt that the PLA General Staff worked out concrete plans for "forceful reunification" with the Republic of China, both strategic and tactical, long ago and in the most detailed way. Yes, the United States has literally stuffed the island with its "best in the world" weapons - from the portable Javelin and Stinger missile systems to the F-16 multipurpose fighters and M1A2 Abrams tanks, as well as the Patriot PAC-3 air defense system. Nevertheless, all this in comparison with the real military power of the Celestial Empire is dust in the wind. Relying on the support and protection of its main (and, in fact, the only) ally, the United States, the island in recent years began to treat its own army with coolness. Yes, they do not spare money for equipping it with American weapons and equipment. However, the general conscription was canceled a couple of years ago. Tanks and aircraft are good, but, for example, not so long ago there was simply no one to fill up to half of the lowest officer positions in the Taiwanese army. The large-scale exercises conducted by the PLA the day before, literally off the coast of Taiwan, to train massive amphibious operations carried out both from the sea and from the air, eloquently show that Beijing is preparing, and is preparing in earnest. Only direct military intervention by the United States can save Taipei from a quick and inevitable defeat. But will the Americans start World War III because of him?

Russia's interests: China is undoubtedly our most important economic partner and military-political ally. On the other hand, its excessive strengthening, albeit on the scale of the Asia-Pacific region, will inevitably give rise to new problems for Russia, since after such a geopolitical victory, Beijing will become even more assertive in promoting its interests wherever it sees fit. That is, all over the world. However, this will happen if the United States really "backs up", that is, does not enter into a military conflict on the side of Taiwan, which they promised to defend against any "external aggression." I don’t even want to think about what will happen otherwise. A new global conflict, which is likely to develop into a nuclear war at the initial stage, is an extremely unpleasant topic for discussion.

Unfortunately, we have to admit - despite the deadly coronavirus pandemic, which, it would seem, was supposed to unite, rally humanity, or at least make it think about the fragility of our civilization, the world seems to be getting closer and closer to a new era of wars, each of which may be the last for him.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 31 August 2020 10: 25
    +1
    The main thing for today is the confrontation between China and the United States, everything else is local showdown and mostly bloodless ... Here the Pacific volcano begins to smoke, here the old Indian-Chinese tensions are applied ... Russia can solve its problems at this time, while the world hegemon muscles are straining ... China needs to be supported, because too large a bloc molds the US: Australia, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc. ... And if the US bloc wins, the next victim will be our Far East and, possibly, the entire Russian Federation .. ...
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 August 2020 10: 50
    0
    Russia needs to look at these conflicts from the point of view of the recognition of Crimea.
    Egypt and Ethiopia did not figure here. Therefore, to sell both weapons for cash.
    Greece and Turkey are clearly against. Well, let them fight. Russia's case is a side.
    China actually supported the Russian Crimea. They need to be helped in case of need by technique and advisers. China tends to the south, not the north, it is a warm-loving nation, so it threatens Russia less than the United States.
    1. syndicalist Offline syndicalist
      syndicalist (Dimon) 31 August 2020 18: 02
      +4
      China looks to the north no less than to the south. And at the same time, not only does not meet resistance here, but vice versa, only greetings and ingratiation. The huge territories given to China for the TOP in, in fact, an indefinite lease, are inhabited by the Chinese and have already been lost for the country forever. But China's claims go much further. The cleared forests and the declaration of Lake Baikal as the Chinese North Sea are just some of the signs of Chinese expansion.
      1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 1 September 2020 09: 50
        +1
        So where is the governor, who has sat in Furgal's place, looking? And a number of other comrades? I've heard from eyewitnesses that Russian students study in China with a scholarship of 3 thousand yuan, in terms of 30 thousand rubles. And this is in communist China. And in Crimea, as recently reported, the average monthly income is about 21 thousand.

        The department noted that the average cash income per capita per month is 20 rubles. This amount is 573% less than in the second quarter of last year.

        https://news.mail.ru/economics/43175845/
        1. polev66 Offline polev66
          polev66 (Alexander) 1 September 2020 10: 45
          0
          One grandmother said, the other immediately smashed it))))) I heard he said what the other was saying ... for some reason the Chinese don't pay their students such scholarships, but then the Russians decided to pay ... about the inscription on the fence the same topic ... the inscription is visible, but the object is not there.
          1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
            Bulanov (Vladimir) 1 September 2020 10: 57
            0
            In fact, the father of a student from Khabarovsk studying in China told me about this. If you don’t believe him, then why believe you? And keep reading on the fences, if you don't read anywhere else ...
            1. polev66 Offline polev66
              polev66 (Alexander) 2 September 2020 05: 44
              0
              I see. That is, there is no evidence other than the student's "father". And how can you believe the tale from the comments? Now, if there was a link to a major resource, not a yellow rag or social network, then there would be some more trust. And so you, my friend, are just loud ....
              1. Dost Offline Dost
                Dost 5 September 2020 04: 53
                0
                There is such a blogger who lives with his family in China, Dmitry Kolesov. He had a series of programs about China. Look, everything is on YouTube. By the way, about pensions, which, allegedly, are not in China))) You can't get out of it ...
                PS They will not fight with anyone - the guts are thin!
              2. Alexander Molin Offline Alexander Molin
                Alexander Molin (Alexander Molin) 10 September 2020 10: 52
                0
                Here you are:

                http://studyathit.hit.edu.cn/post/index/459

                This is a link to my university where I studied. Moreover, 3000 yuan are received by masters living in a hostel. Those who rent an apartment receive an additional 700 yuan on top.
                Well, graduate students receive 3500 yuan and + 700 if they also rent an apartment. And this is not only paid to Russians, but in general to all foreign students.
      2. polev66 Offline polev66
        polev66 (Alexander) 1 September 2020 10: 42
        0
        And what areas are inhabited by the Chinese, as an example? But there is no need to quote slogans and manuals, facts are needed.
      3. Alexander Molin Offline Alexander Molin
        Alexander Molin (Alexander Molin) 10 September 2020 10: 46
        0
        Where can you see the Chinese settlers? I don't see them in our Primorye.
    2. Roman Rusinov Offline Roman Rusinov
      Roman Rusinov (Roman Rusinov) 1 September 2020 13: 02
      0
      In the event of the start of the Greek-Turkish war, our people will unequivocally support Greece, since we are brothers in spirit and in blood, and the Putin regime, if it supports Turkey, will go to hell.
      1. Kazbek Offline Kazbek
        Kazbek (kazbek) 4 September 2020 05: 30
        +2
        Horseradish radish is not sweeter. That the Greeks podpin ... that the Turks are clearly not pro-Russian. Sell ​​both weapons for gold and let each other mutuz.
    3. Kazbek Offline Kazbek
      Kazbek (kazbek) 4 September 2020 05: 26
      +2
      What kind of cash? If the United States gets involved in the war and Russia signs for China, then its greens will be worthless.
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 31 August 2020 11: 03
    +2
    Uh ... And China against India is no longer remembered? And Libya .... Stretched like an owl on a globe ...
  4. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 31 August 2020 11: 20
    +1
    ... despite the deadly coronavirus pandemic, which, it would seem, was supposed to unite, rally humanity ...

    How is it? The old model has ceased to work, a pandemic is just a smoke screen for the world's population, an opportunity to explain why the economies are falling. The United States is leaving the role of "chief overseer" as having failed. Now everyone is for himself. Who is stronger - will lead the regional currency zone, who is weaker, builds relations with the main in the region or (if the geography and economy allows) chooses the main one for himself.
  5. Old man Offline Old man
    Old man (Old man) 31 August 2020 11: 56
    -1
    China future leader of the Periphery ("Core and Periphery Concept"

    https://www.proza.ru/2018/12/17/810

    It is inevitable. The next contender is India. When China cracks down on the West (led by the United States), India will most likely be its main geopolitical enemy in the struggle for the leadership of the Periphery.
    If we are now able to understand ourselves and explain to China that Russia is not the Periphery, but the Core, then we have a chance to avoid an aggressive confrontation with China. But you need to realize and do it NOW.
    In cooperation with the West, we could not do this and slipped into rivalry on the verge of mutual destruction. Although the roles of the Core and the Periphery in the world not only do not exclude, but naturally complement each other.
    The fact is that any process, and human development is a PROCESS, always has a CORE and a PERIPHERAL. It is on the opposition of these two poles of the One Whole that Evolution is built.
    The periphery is freer and more reckless. Its role is to find, at any cost, everything new, without any regard for the consequences of such actions.
    The kernel is more conservative and judicious. Its role is to select, preserve, and transmit to others the necessary (but safe) locations of the Periphery.
    At the moment, the West (with the US leader) is the periphery of this Process. And Russia is the NUCLEUS. This natural opposition of the Spiritual Core and the Intellectual Periphery of the human population is perceived by people (due to a lack of real Knowledge) as hostility.
    Here are explanations about Russia and its role in world history - "God. Earth. Man" (in particular, part I, chapter X and part II, chapter VIII)

    https://www.proza.ru/2009/10/02/706
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 31 August 2020 13: 14
      +2
      Remark to an elderly person. When they begin to pull the "owl on the globe", that is, the state of the world on an artificial theory, a clinic with psychiatry begins ...
      1. Old man Offline Old man
        Old man (Old man) 31 August 2020 13: 48
        0
        Sure. This is what we see everywhere.
    2. EMMM Offline EMMM
      EMMM 31 August 2020 15: 16
      +1
      At the present time, in my opinion, it is necessary to continue the development of relations with both China and India in a balanced way. With the result uncertain, a serious conflict between them is now unlikely. And the States, recalling the lesson of Vietnam, are unlikely to poke themselves into this region on a large scale.
  6. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 31 August 2020 16: 26
    +1
    It seems to me that China will not go to Taiwan. It is very unprofitable for him. In the event of hostilities, all the countries of Southeast Asia will turn their backs on him. Then all licenses concluded with these countries will collapse. And these countries, in turn, import electronic elements from Taiwan.
  7. Binder Offline Binder
    Binder (Miron) 31 August 2020 17: 08
    0
    The Chinese are like warriors - complete zero, they have never won victories in a war with an external enemy, they are a nation of hard workers and speculators, they can also steal what is bad, or rob a drunk tourist, they have a lot of guts to fight. There will be no war for Taiwan, the Chinese will prefer to continue selling their left-wing products all over the world and get decent money for it, rather than shedding blood on the battlefield.
    The chances of a serious war between Egypt and Ethiopia are very small - they will wither and die down. If the Egyptians seriously intended to attack the hydroelectric power station under construction, they would have done so long ago.
    The highest likelihood of the situation slipping towards bloodshed is the Turkish-Greek disagreement in the Eastern Mediterranean. Here Erdogan's exorbitant ambitions can push him to aggravation, and the Greeks do not intend to give up a single step. But there will be no big war here either - the senior NATO partners will not allow the two members of the bloc to clash.
    1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
      Alexzn (Alexander) 1 September 2020 07: 34
      +1
      With China, a clear violation of logic. Are the Chinese bad soldiers? - Controversial! Well, do not forget that in Taiwan live ... also Chinese.
      1. Binder Offline Binder
        Binder (Miron) 1 September 2020 17: 29
        0
        Quote: AlexZN
        Are the Chinese bad soldiers? - Controversial!

        And where and whom did they ever defeat on the battlefield? Movies about martial artists aside. lol
  8. Evgeny Kozyrev Offline Evgeny Kozyrev
    Evgeny Kozyrev (Evgeny Kozyrev) 31 August 2020 20: 01
    0
    Are you sure that some bloc will attack China while China has nuclear weapons? It's funny! As one Chinese said ... about the United States and the war with them ... your whole country will die in the event of a war with us, and China has only a couple ... another hundreds of millions of people ..
    1. Kazbek Offline Kazbek
      Kazbek (kazbek) 4 September 2020 05: 37
      +1
      Well, firstly, more Chinese will die, but millions of survivors can rush to flee to Russian territory if Russia does not participate in the war. Well, if he participates, then there will be no one to be saved. Not to the Americans, not the Chinese, not everyone else.
  9. Alexander Stolyarov (Alexander Stolyarov) 1 September 2020 01: 46
    +4
    This article is only an examination of special cases, and there are much more of them.
    After reading the title, I expected to see a post about: the USA and Iran, the USA and North Korea, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
    For example.
    And as if we live in the Middle Ages. Governments fight for power and money, and people die.
    It is a pity.
  10. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 1 September 2020 18: 33
    0
    Quote: Bindyuzhnik
    Quote: AlexZN
    Are the Chinese bad soldiers? - Controversial!

    And where and whom did they ever defeat on the battlefield? Movies about martial artists aside. lol

    Is this point very important in the war with Taiwan?
    Let me remind you, where and when did someone consider the Jews to be good soldiers before 1948?
  11. Buy Offline Buy
    Buy 1 September 2020 20: 06
    +1
    So far I do not see the main reason for starting any of the wars, the main thing is internal pressure on the elites from the people inhabiting these countries, while this is not. War is a stick, a response may arrive that will put an end to the former elites. Erdogan quite confidently feels himself at the head of Turkey, he will not start a war under these conditions. Xi Jinping not so long ago became the head of the PRC for life, he does not need to start a war and, with a high probability, see the US army as opponents. The author described the problems of geography of Egypt well, there is no need to repeat myself, although just for the elite of Egypt, war can be a good way out in order to stay in power, they are not very strong there.
  12. Vitaly Dino-Zavro (Vitaly Dino-Zavro) 1 September 2020 22: 25
    0
    They told me about China. It turns out that there are still radio stations broadcasting on the Far East and North. It's funny, and I have little faith. There programs start like this. Hello, residents of the temporarily occupied territories.
  13. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 3 September 2020 01: 04
    0
    They will unleash like a war, and the Chinese will rush to the Far East, creating a humanitarian catastrophe, and Russia cannot cope with this, the "refugees" are stupidly 50.000.000 and that's all - the Far East is Chinese !!!!! ((Japan, which has not signed the peace treaty to this day day !!! And at this time, as usual in history, on the other hand the expropriation of the Kaliningrad region will begin, and if the Caucasus also flares up, Ukraine will rise !!!!
    And the Strategic Missile Forces will not bomb their territory !!!
    And there is no one to fight in Russia, only 120.000.000 population (approximately) !!!!!!
    It is then that you will remember how they poisoned people with drugs for whole generations, putting on a needle and other drugs, how the cops profited from human grief !!!!!
    And we, pro-Russian, are already few, because we are getting old ((betrayed by Russia in Ukraine !!!
    You didn’t think your head, you fool!
  14. macsim.mysl Offline macsim.mysl
    macsim.mysl (Macsim MYSL) 4 September 2020 21: 03
    0
    Not only will the Americans not fight for some Chinese, they will not even blather if Russia gets into the Baltic states. The Americans really do something, but they will definitely not die for the sake of some people left to them.
  15. Badger Offline Badger
    Badger (Dmitriy) 10 September 2020 14: 45
    0
    War is on, war is the road!