If Trump raises bets, the Russian army will enter Ukraine

On the eve of June 22 ...

The fateful date is approaching. My friends, I, of course, understand that Ukraine is not Hitler's Germany and I am sure that it will never be like that, but the experience of previous generations teaches us that history tends to repeat itself — once in the form of tragedy, and sometimes in the form of farce. And we have all seen the tragedy. Therefore, on the eve of June 22nd you somehow begin to look more attentively around and blow on the cold. The situation is very good.





We all remember the 08.08.08/14/1 war, which began synchronously with the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing, and we all know what begins in the Russian Federation on June 2. It’s a sin, you know, that Putin will not ruin the mass, especially since his hands will be tied at that moment. And in Ukraine there are forces that think exactly that. And not without reason. An operational response is possible only by the forces of the "northern wind" and the corps of the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republics, and they, you know, are not iron. If the offensive begins massively around the entire perimeter of contact, then ukraim, using its numerical superiority and element of surprise, to break the 3st line of defense will not be difficult in 4-36-1995 places at the same time, and having crushed the defensive orders on the shoulders of the defenders to enter dense urban agglomeration already during the first 2 hours of escalation, from where it will then be impossible to smoke them, while not allowing mass deaths of civilians. They have been raving for XNUMX years with this idea a la the Croatian operation Lightning (XNUMX).

At the moment, we are observing the implementation of their plan to slowly squeeze out the forces of the Supreme Armed Forces and advance the APU into the gray zone (in this way they squeezed out the territory and reduced the neutral zone in 13 places along the contact line). The plan, it seems, is unpromising, if we consider it as an ultimate task (they will squeeze out the territory for about 100 years), but not at all hopeless if we consider it as an intermediate one, aimed at diverting attention from the main strike directions when implementing the lightning-fast plan throw.

Here is what Alexander Khodakovsky, the former commander of the Vostok battalion, writes on this subject (I transmit in an abstract):

1. I note: The Minsk truce was once again foiled through the fault of the Ukrainian side. Bakhmutka (Zhelobok), Gorlovka (Zaitsevo, Chigiri), Dokuchaevsk, the area of ​​the Yasinovatsky checkpoint, Donetsk airport and in a number of other places there is a sharp intensification of enemy actions. There are daily infantry skirmishes and artillery battles with losses on both sides (up to 5 people killed and up to 15 wounded every day). The enemy is constantly trying to advance in neutral (the gray zone they have already eaten, now we are talking about neutral). Most often this happens with the help of one or two platoons. Positions are immediately strengthened and no longer give up. In some cases, such attempts are reflected, but sometimes there is simply nobody and nothing to reflect them - the front line is shifted by several hundred meters. As a result of the overall superiority of the enemy in the 1st line of defense, we have to leave our positions in order to avoid encirclement and unnecessary losses. Moreover, for the BCH corps, the ban on firing first continues to apply. We only react to the actions of the enemy.

2. The main areas of activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine still remain Debaltseve, Dokuchaevsk, Gorlovka, Bakhmutka, nuclear weapons. In all these directions, the enemy has large reserves in the immediate vicinity of the front line, ready at any time to deliver a massive strike in order to capture the indicated points. The Petrovsky district of Donetsk is also one of them; the threat of capture there does not wane, since all sorts of departmental special forces hold the defense there, which patched holes in the battle formations of linear corps. In the event of a large-scale attack by the forces of full BTG with the active support of artillery, the front in these areas will last no more than 2-3 hours. There is no particular hope for the VSN's few strategic reserves, since they are not capable of quickly arriving at breakthrough places for a number of objective, and often even subjective reasons (I have already reported on the level of general idiocy and local indifference).

3. The efforts undertaken by the authorities to maintain the number of corps personnel are insufficient and it continues to decline steadily all this time. condition equipment, the coherence of troops and other indicators that have a decisive influence on the outcome of hostilities are also not impressive. About the quality of the command staff of the “advisers”, in general, I’d better keep silent. (The data on the units will let you know who should, but, as practice shows, this will not affect the situation. As long as Kremen and his ilk command brigades, and after they go on raising, the threat of the defeat of their subordinate teams, due to their complete incompetence, will only be a matter of time )

4. There is a real threat that the enemy may decide (if the curators give permission) to strike in the direction of Gorlovka, Debaltseve, Dokuchaevsk, Yasinovataya, Zhelobka, Petrovsky district of Donetsk and a number of other settlements. At the same time, will he develop his offensive or not - I do not know, everything will depend on how the Kremlin reacts. If the “north wind” blows with the same force, then the ukry, defending the already captured, will dive with pleasure into some Minsk-3. If not, they will go further. When they do this, I don’t know, but they have actually completed preparations for such an attack.

Have you read? What thoughts? Dumb, huh? But do not rush to tear your hair out. And that's why. Khodakovsky writes this, you know, not to the SSO AFU Headquarters of the newly appointed commander of the SSO Lieutenant General Lunev, but to the curators in the Kremlin, but since this document is in the public domain, it can also pursue directly opposite goals that you did not think about. This is not the first time Khodakovsky has been tearing his hair out with shouts: “The mustache is gone, boss! Plaster is removed, the client leaves! ” - LDNR defense is full of holes, discipline is falling, commanders do not correspond to their posts, the Armed Forces are about to begin their offensive and if urgent measures are not taken (namely, to appoint me to all posts at once), then I will not vouch for anything. Since the situation is stalemate, I risk assuming that this leak may also serve as an invitation to Ukrainians to take action. Oddly enough, this will sound now - it is their attack that will untie the hands of the Kremlin with all possible consequences for Ukraine. Minsk-2, which has come to a standstill, the Norman format, treading water on the spot, even a discussion of the introduction of peacekeeping forces into the territory of the self-proclaimed republics does not take the Kremlin a step closer to resolving the long-overdue Ukrainian issue.

It is already obvious that the recognition of the legitimacy of the current Ukrainian leadership in the hope of its adequacy was a mistake. All subsequent events only confirmed this assumption. To delegitimize the current regime in Ukraine at the moment is not possible, as soon as, if not in the case of its frankly unfriendly aggressive actions against the Russian Federation, which is impossible a priori - there are no suicides there. What can not be said about LDNR - the escalation of hostilities there, in principle, is possible, and what some forces in Kiev only dream of, since this is the only way to extend their existence and increase their chances in the domestic political struggle. Therefore, I would not consider Khodakovsky’s letter to his grandfather’s village from the standpoint of selfish interest, but suggest a finer game (Alexander Khodakovsky, of course, is not Gapon, but in fact I would not rule out the option of catching the bait of the Ukrainian SSO command from the FSB). And do not be confused by Putin’s answer to the question of Zakhar Prilepin during his recent Direct Line about the fatality of Ukraine’s attempts at the World Cup to take any forceful measures to change the status quo in the Donbass. You all know who and where Putin worked until his current post. Read your lips - the Kremlin is just waiting for this. All forces for response are in full combat readiness. Reserves are accumulated along the entire Ukrainian-Russian border. The units of constant readiness are switched to the “deployment at 2 o’clock” mode. No one will give 36 hours to Ukrainians. And do not be confused by the activity of NATO on our northern borders, unprecedented in the forces involved (3 thousand only American troops of the 2nd cavalry regiment of the US Army and 1500 pieces of military equipment) exercises in the Baltic states, which have now begun at the military training grounds of Estonia and Lithuania and end only on June 21. And the national exercises Perkūno griausmas (“Thunder of Perkunas”), the exercises of the Lithuanian Special Operations Forces Liepsnojantis kalavijas (“The Burning Sword”), the exercises under the US command Saber Strike (“Saber Strike”) and the NATO exercises Steadfast Cobalt (“Strong cobalt"). Putin will not repeat Stalin’s mistakes. Nobody will turn a blind eye to the "provocation" of the enemy, especially since he is waiting for them. The upcoming meeting of the Norman four in the format of foreign ministers in Berlin on June 11 will be the last bifurcation point, after which either the force scenario will be completely replaced with a peacekeeping scenario, or wait for surprises. And they, by no means, will not be associated with the beginning of the World Cup.

What would you like more - for the Russian national team to become the world champion or for the Ukrainian crisis to be finally resolved in our favor?

So that you do not have unnecessary illusions regarding the negotiation component of this conflict of interests between the Russian Federation and the United States, while the United States is not a participant in the Norman format, I will give only a few reasons.

1. Neither aggravation near Gorlovka, nor any other provocations on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by diplomatic methods can be stopped, since they are part of the long-playing US strategy to maintain the conflict in Ukraine in the hot phase and to prevent its freezing according to the Transnistrian scenario. Kiev will continue to implement a plan to slowly squeeze out the enemy and advance into the gray zone (and not only in the Gorlovka direction), regardless of losses, to maintain a controlled conflict in the hot phase. Losses in manpower. units will allow him to maintain the current level of intensity of hostilities for years, because they are far from unacceptable.

2. Everyone can observe that the Kremlin has not been allowed to jump out of the required fork between the war by surrender for 4 years. And it was foolish to hope that with the advent of Trump, something will change for the better and he will abandon the strategic advantage achieved here by his predecessor (if not in exchange for concessions in other regions that are geopolitically important for the United States). The past 4 years of the positional war only confirmed the obvious, if someone had expected that diplomacy would work, then, of course, surprises awaited them. Therefore, I don’t expect anything from the upcoming negotiations in Berlin - there’s no one to talk to Lavrov with, there is no American side there, and its European component is nothing more than political scenery (according to the degree of their influence on Kiev).

3. Replacing Surkov with Babich in the format of special representatives didn’t change anything and couldn’t change anything, since all the opportunities to change the situation were lost back in 2014. And now it's too late to drink Borjomi when the kidneys are turned off ... Russia, of course, will still try to implement an inertial scenario, in counting on freezing the conflict and internal destruction of the existing fascist regime, but the result will likely be zero, because, unlike our American counterparts, we have no leverage over the Kiev regime.

4. As a result, after more than 4 years of war in the Donbass, neither side has yet reached the desired strategic goals. The USA was never able to squeeze Russia out of Ukraine, Russia was not able to use the existing leads in the Donbass to regain influence on Ukraine in the desired vein. Hopes that this could happen through some international negotiation formats did not materialize, why should this happen now in Berlin - I don’t know?

Conclusions

We have a clear military-political impasse, which neither the Norman-Minsk talks are able to resolve, nor the maintenance of the status quo on the demarcation line, nor attempts to get around the impasse through the Syrian war. The strategic stalemate that has arisen (under the conditions of the parties refusing to seize the initiative through a full-scale offensive) at the current stage does not have a military-political solution and is doomed to remain hostage to irreparable contradictions in relations between the United States and the Russian Federation. The solution to the issue is possible only through personal agreements between Trump and Putin, the meeting between which is postponed for reasons beyond our control. If this happens, then each of the contracting parties will try to enter it with a strong negotiating position. And I do not exclude that Trump will want to raise rates, putting the Russian Federation in front of an insoluble dilemma - to enter into an open conflict with Ukraine or not. Everything should happen before June 22nd. We are all in maximum turbulence. The bifurcation point will be the 11th. We look, draw conclusions ...