Baltics will pay for going against Lukashenka


Against the background of mass protests after the presidential elections, a struggle for the “Belarusian inheritance” unfolded between neighbors. Having sheltered an alternative “President Tikhanovskaya,” Lithuania made a bet against Lukashenka. But, having enlisted the support of the Kremlin, Alexander Grigorievich is in no hurry to give up power. And in Vilnius and Riga, which supported him, they are now afraid of negative economic consequences of their choice.


The relationship between Minsk and Vilnius is traditionally very difficult. They especially worsened after they began to build their own nuclear power plant in Belarus with the support of Rosatom. The main complaint of the Lithuanian authorities is that the BelNPP is located just a few dozen kilometers from the capital of their country. Official Vilnius for years put pressure on this energy project at all levels, but failed to achieve its ban. The first power unit of the power plant will start working this fall, loading of nuclear fuel into the reactors has begun. As we already told, only the “Belarusian Maidan” can stop the launch of the BelNPP, as a result of which a pro-Western politician may come to power and, as a token of gratitude, will defuse “Putin's bomb”.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Mrs. Tikhanovskaya moved to Lithuania, where she is very welcome. The head of the country's foreign diplomacy, Linas Linkevičius, hastened to name Alexander Grigorievich “the former president”, and the president of the republic, Gitanas Nauseda, “an illegitimate ruler”. The Lithuanian Seimas adopted a resolution calling on the European Union to recognize the elections in Belarus as invalid and to impose sanctions against Minsk officials, and Riga supported it on this issue.

But “Old Man” is in no hurry to leave, and the Baltic states began to frantically ponder how they would pay for their “run over” on President Lukashenko if he still stays. It’s quite funny to watch how Lithuania, which is critically dependent on Minsk in the issue of the transit of Belarusian products for export, twitched. Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis said:

Today we can say only one thing - there is no more efficient, cheap and economically advantageous way for Belarusian cargo than through the Klaipeda port.

This is true, but not quite. Indeed, since Soviet times, thanks to the created transport infrastructure and modern, well-established logistics, it was profitable for Minsk to use the Lithuanian transit as a window to Europe. For example, last year more than 30% of the total transshipment through Klaipeda was Belarusian goods, with a total volume of 14,1 million tons. Almost 100% of bulk cargo is potash fertilizers, the main item of foreign exchange in Belarus. Do I need to explain how beneficial it is for Vilnius to have such a stable partner? And now he can really lose it.

A few years ago, Russia began to reorient its own exports from the Baltics to domestic ports. This made the Three Sisters pay a high price for their trademark Russophobia. The Kremlin also called out "Old Man" with additional economic preferences, but he brushed it off, hiding behind his "multi-vector" nature. But now, apparently, it is coming to an end for political reasons due to the extremely unfriendly attitude on the part of the Eastern European countries.

As a result, Belarus would become even closer to its eastern neighbors - Russia, China, the countries of Central Asia

- writes the Lithuanian economist Zhigimantas Mauritsas.

And indeed it is. 41,2% of Belarusian exports go to Russia, and 55,9% of Russian goods are imported. In other words, 49,2% of the foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Belarus falls on the RF. For comparison, the foreign trade turnover with Lithuania is 2,1%, with Germany - 3%, with the USA - 1,2%, with China - 4,4%, with neighboring Ukraine - 8%. As smart people once said, "the basis determines the superstructure."

The reorientation of Minsk towards cooperation with Moscow in the field of transit will be the only correct response to the Baltic sanctions.
Photos used: https://pxhere.com/
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15 comments
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  1. Kuzmich Sibiryakov (Kuzmich Sibiryakov) 21 August 2020 11: 43
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    The thug - mordovorot always has a trump ace up his sleeve. And not alone.
    Well, WHERE did this lice go against Russia? Do they really think that they will be protected because of the lake? They are used as a toilet paper, thrown away, without even looking back where it will be carried by the wind.
    1. Alexey Konyaev Offline
      Alexey Konyaev (Alexey Konyaev) 27 August 2020 07: 30
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      Once a Chukhon was sitting in a crowded tavern, got up and shouted: "Well, lice, who is against me ?!" There is silence in the hall, a healthy mordovorot John gets up and says: "Me!" The Chukhonets examined him with a glance and said: "Who is against me and Joni? .."
  2. Rostislav Offline
    Rostislav (Rostislav) 21 August 2020 11: 58
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    It is high time to end this notorious "multi-vector approach." To stand next to Russia and move forward calmly.
    1. Kuzmich Sibiryakov (Kuzmich Sibiryakov) 27 August 2020 12: 20
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      Quote: Rostislav
      It is high time to end this notorious "multi-vector approach." To stand next to Russia and move forward calmly.

      I presented a picture from the textbook. A circle of the center of mass and vectors of forces in different directions, tearing it in their directions. If the center is rotten, then what happens, huh? That's right, pieces scattering the devil knows where and at what speeds.
  3. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 21 August 2020 14: 56
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    Today we can say only one thing - there is no more efficient, cheap and economically advantageous way for Belarusian cargo than through the Klaipeda port.

    There is such a way and everyone knows it. Lukashenka has long been offered to reorient to Ust-Luga in order to make this route profitable and economically profitable, reduced the railway tariff for him, but ...... Multi-vector and independence above all. So now let him get up in his favorite position and work with people who do not recognize him, and even spit on his bald head.
  4. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 21 August 2020 18: 10
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    Baltics will pay for going against Lukashenka

    - The insidious Balts will pay cruelly ... - no one will escape retribution ...
    - And our courageous site ... - will make them minuses ... - let them tremble ...
    1. NoN importa Offline
      NoN importa (NoN importa) 23 August 2020 06: 44
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      I looked at your comments, it's worth thinking about why all your thoughts always minus ...
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Kuzmich Sibiryakov (Kuzmich Sibiryakov) 27 August 2020 12: 15
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        Quote: NoN importa
        I looked at your comments, it's worth thinking about why all your thoughts always minus ...

        Something happened here, or one of two things.

        Either the brain sits where it likes to get pinched, or it doesn't exist at all.
    2. Kuzmich Sibiryakov (Kuzmich Sibiryakov) 27 August 2020 12: 13
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      Quote: gorenina91
      Baltics will pay for going against Lukashenka

      - The insidious Balts will pay cruelly ... - no one will escape retribution ...
      - And our courageous site ... - will make them minuses ... - let them tremble ...

      With great pleasure I put my minus. It's a pity you can't put a hundred at once.
  5. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 21 August 2020 18: 41
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    In the perspective of dividing the world into zones of influence, Lithuania will pay with its southern part, the Vilnius region. With the primordially Slavic cities of Kovno and Vilno. Compare the construction with Exactly.
    The population of Lithuania now has 38% haplogroup R1a, Slavic, Aryan, Russian, whatever. And they are concentrated in the south. So these lands will enter into a new incarnation of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Russia, but without the "zhemoytskiy" one, for who needs them, after so many years of Russophobia.
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 25 August 2020 16: 15
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      Quote: boriz
      The population of Lithuania now has 38% haplogroup R1a, Slavic, Aryan, Russian, whatever.

      To be fair, it should be noted that this haplogroup is widespread in Poland. In fact, Poles and Russians are a consanguineous people, in terms of genealogy, but in terms of geopolitics, they are antagonists.
  6. alex-sherbakov48 22 August 2020 07: 07
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    Luka's sitting on two chairs turned into a disaster for the Belarusians. Maybe after such events Lukashenka will come to his senses and stop his multi-vector game. To redirect all cargoes through Russian ports - that's when the Balts will understand that they have put on the wrong horse !!!
  7. nikkoaskander Offline
    nikkoaskander (Nikko Askander) 23 August 2020 23: 51
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    Well, to transport to Lithuania is closer than to St. Petersburg. But why not to Kaliningrad? Are there generally three ports in the region?
  8. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 24 August 2020 21: 56
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    Kedmi is right: let Poland and Lithuania argue with each other. It's not good for pugs to bark at a free bear, trample it.
  9. nikolaj1703 Offline
    nikolaj1703 (Nikolai) 27 August 2020 08: 28
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    The Baltic states decided to destroy the industry of Belarus in order to lose transit?