Only Russia can save Belarus from large-scale de-industrialization

Political passions in Belarus do not subside. As a means of pressure on President Lukashenko, those who disagree with the election results chose such a very effective method as a strike. The shutdown of key enterprises can paralyze normal socialeconomic life in the country and at the same time deprive the official Minsk of foreign exchange earnings, which clearly will not benefit the stability of Belarus.

Already now we can say that the former fraternal republic will never be, even if Alexander Grigorievich by some miracle manages to stay in power, "on bayonets" or finding some kind of compromise with the opposition. The way to the West of Belarus under President Lukashenko is closed, and the situation at the enterprises once again shows how critically this country depends on Russia, no matter what they think about this in Minsk.

Despite the fact that for most Russians Belarus is strongly associated with potatoes and milk, as well as repackaged sanctioned European products, it is a fairly industrialized state that was able to preserve a significant part of its production potential, avoiding barbaric privatizations according to Mr. Chubais's recipes. The main problem for Minsk is that only Russia is a real sales market for its products. Other countries buy it in small batches, with the exception of oil products and potassium, but that's another story.

Belarus has always been famous for its mechanical engineering, tractors and combines were exported to the Russian market, where "effective management" led to the closure of six tractor plants. However, in recent years, production has gradually begun to revive in Kirov and Rostov, which has created serious problems with marketing for Belarusian products, which are regularly overstocked in all warehouses. Because of this, for example, MAZ works for an incomplete week. At one time Moscow proposed to merge MAZ with KAMAZ, but did not find understanding. Now the famous company operates with virtually no profit. BelAZ is doing a little better with its $ 150 million in profit. The annual revenue of the Minsk Tractor Plant is half a billion dollars.

In the current situation, these leading manufacturing enterprises do not bring special income to Minsk, but their importance cannot be underestimated, since they unite other factories around them into industrial clusters that provide jobs for many Belarusians. To enter other foreign markets will require serious financial investments in Technology and updating the lineup. But Western investors are not ready to invest in state-owned enterprises. Their interest, as well as that of large Russian business, will be in the privatization of assets.

Much more serious will be the consequences of stopping the work of the Integral plant, which is now on strike. It produces electronics and microcircuits that are in demand in the Russian and Chinese military-industrial complex. In addition to Integral, MAZ, BelAZ, Minsk Tractor Plant, there are Belarusian Metallurgical Plant, Zhabinkovsky Sugar Plant, Grodno-Azot, Keramin, Belmedpreparaty, Grodnozhilstroy, Terrazit and even the Belarusian State Philharmonic Society. The termination of their activities is clearly aimed at destabilizing the situation in Belarus, since President Lukashenko was forced to admit that he could not force anyone to work.

A strike at the Belaruskali enterprise and several refineries can really bring down the Belarusian regime economically. They produce almost the only products that are in demand abroad for foreign currency. Belarusian potash fertilizers are a serious competitor to the Russian and Canadian ones on the world market, since Minsk is seriously dumping. In terms of profitability, the Belarusian oil industry is entirely dependent on the supply of raw materials from Russia. So far, the protesters have not taken control of these two sectors, but if they do, political changes in Minsk will be a matter of the near future.

It can be summed up that friendly Belarus has passed the point of no return. After the "feint" of President Lukashenko with 80,08% in the elections, he lost a significant part of the support among the people and finally became not handshake in the West. More number with maneuvering between Russia and Europe will not work. And then there are two main options.

If its opponents gain the upper hand in Minsk, Belarus will follow the Ukrainian path with the severing of industrial ties with Russia, privatization and de-industrialization. How painful it will be for her herself, we clearly showed above. If Alexander Grigorievich calls on the Kremlin for help, he will support him, but obviously on condition of real integration within the Union State. Then the question will automatically arise about the integration of the Belarusian industry within the framework of large Russian financial and industrial groups. In the current situation for the official Minsk, this will not be the worst decision.
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  1. maiman61 Offline maiman61
    maiman61 (Yuri) 17 August 2020 11: 24
    What the heck! Whom to save? Who will save us! Save us !!!
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 18 August 2020 16: 44
      Quote: maiman61
      Who will save us! Save us !!!

      Don't play with the gallows. And the Blue Whale. Suddenly they won't be saved.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 17 August 2020 11: 27
    If and when the price of imported consumer goods, including medicines, begins to rise in Belarus, the main task of the pro-government Belarusian media is to blame the strikers and their NATO supervisors for this. They say that they prevent the release of Belarusian products abroad and the inflow of foreign currency to Belarus. And you need to talk about it - from every iron!
  3. Crimean Connecting Rod (Eugene) 17 August 2020 11: 29
    Why save? Russian manufacturers express their full support to self-sawing competitors from brotherly Belarus.
  4. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 17 August 2020 12: 36
    All this bedlam there was muddied by those who already did not live badly under Father Father, who love to fish in troubled waters, as in Ukraine, but they don’t think about the consequences of all this. Trump, when he went to the presidency, clearly said that he would break the backs of those who would stand in the way of the US economy, which he successfully does, blocks our gas to Europe, chops off Middle Eastern oil from European consumers, and imposes around the world its shale oil and gas, makes Europeans buy only their defense products, in short, captures all sales markets, up to the use of Tomahawks. And what the Yankees did to the Ukrainian industry - the same devastation awaits Belarus, with its turn towards the West ..... I think that Putin's circle is surrounded by normal, adequate analysts, not curls with Chubais, but those who care for Russia , and they will come to the solution we need by adding another republic to the Russian Federation.
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 17 August 2020 14: 21
      Come on, this "one more republic" will first close all unprofitable enterprises, of which there are 60%.
      Then he will attach the freed people somewhere.
      He will find ways to independently compensate for lost budget revenues, without external borrowing.
      Balances the economy by privatizing surplus state property.
      Will live a "period of turbulence" caused by all these phenomena, but then we'll talk.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 18 August 2020 16: 51
        Quote: King3214
        Come on, this "one more republic" will first close all unprofitable enterprises, of which there are 60%

        And if this republic is the United States? What's profitable there? Only financial speculation. And that Boeing, that McDonald's, sit in loans for 1000 years to come.
        1. King3214 Offline King3214
          King3214 (Sergius) 18 August 2020 17: 01
          And Boeing and McDonald's are not needed. They only need technology. And they can be scrapped.
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 17 August 2020 13: 32
    - Yes, everything is bad for Belarus ... - just like everything is bad ... for Russia ... - But Russia already has what it has; and Belarus has yet to acquire all this "bouquet" ...
    - All paths of Belarus lead downward ...:
    1. Belarus will go "to the West" ... - it will immediately fall into the fetid "Ukrainian pit" ... - even this swamp is not worth discussing here ..;
    2. Belarus will go into the "arms of Russia" ... - Well, everything will be like in slow motion:
    - Gradually, all Belarusian enterprises are being closed ... - they simply cannot withstand competition with Russian ... unemployment will go off scale to the impossible;
    - The entire Belarusian social sphere ... children. gardens, nurseries, schools, honey. service, hospitals, ambulance services, etc ... - all this will slide down to the level of Russian poverty (and even lower);
    - The Belarusian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, the army ... - will undergo a global reorganization and a huge reduction and a corresponding change in all attached "social packages and benefits" ...;
    - The entire aviation (passenger and transport) structure of Belarus; as well as railroad (passenger, freight, transport) will come under the aegis of the Russian government and will be supplied and provided on a "leftover principle" and will experience huge reductions in workers;
    - Belarusian agriculture and processing ... - will be absolutely not in demand and subject to ruin ... - will somehow survive and wither;
    - All Belarusian structures that maintain the level of order in cities, on roads (road maintenance itself), public services ... - urban transport, trams, subways ... will cease to be largely financed in small towns, villages and settlements .. . - will simply lose their functions ...
    - The education system of Belarus (schools, institutes, colleges) will switch to a paid basis ...
    - The Russian oligarchy will quickly undermine the banking system of Belarus and the entire business ...
    - Much more can be added ... - But, in principle ... - everything is clear ... - In other words ... - Russia will not support Belarus and create favorable conditions for it ... - like Chechnya and Dagestan ... - That's all ...
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 17 August 2020 14: 15
      It seems that you are writing from some other Russia.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 18 August 2020 16: 48
        Quote: King3214
        what are you writing from some other Russia.

        What Russia ... Basement in Brooklyn. Behind the terminal of the most advanced American AI. Translate and edit. But the AI ​​is smarter than the operator.
  6. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 17 August 2020 14: 14
    The fact that it is state (they are also unprofitable) enterprises that are on strike in Belarus is significant!
    1. g1washntwn Offline g1washntwn
      g1washntwn (George Washington) 18 August 2020 08: 23
      Quote: King3214
      The fact that it is state (they are also unprofitable) enterprises that are on strike in Belarus is significant!

      Sure. If the laws of the market and efficiency for profit ruled there, there would be no one to go on strike. But father himself admitted that state support drags these enterprises and a certain percentage of employment. For capitalism, which will take the place of the one to whom they are now shouting "go away," these "bastuns" will simply become an extra labor resource, and then 100% will not "keep". The West does not need competitors, parasites - too (by the way, what about the Brussels subsidies to various "former fraternal" ones? The rumor passed - grants for the collapse of the USSR are running out), even as a sales market, they are hopeless, the beggars are not worthy of iPhones. So an example of burning tires is close by and the mantra "but everything will be different for us and we will heal!" it will not work here ... the masses only spin the spring of this Maidan gramophone, and the music is ordered by completely different ones.