No one writes to the colonel ...
On Friday, August 14, after a 2-day silence, the dad appeared on Belarusian TV screens with the words: "To begin with, I'm still alive! .. And not abroad, as some" svyadomami "slander here ...". And although Lukashenko's entire appearance exuded confidence, his eyes betrayed the panic that overtook him after all the events that overtook him over the previous two days. It was evident from everything that, despite the apparent readiness for such a development of events, no one in his apparatus expected such a scale. Therefore, out of fear, they went too far with retaliatory measures, which only exacerbated the situation.
So far, no one, neither on the external circuit, nor on the internal one, knows how all this can end. I don't know, of course, and I. Therefore, this text will rather not be an analytical assessment of what is happening, but an emotional one. So far, I can only state that only Alexander Grigorievich himself is to blame for everything that happens. Starting from the fact that he did not prepare a replacement for himself following the example of Nazarbayev, who calmly transferred the reins of government into the reliable hands of a personally chosen successor and now from the height of the Leader of the Nation for life is watching events in his country, and ending with spoiled relations with the Russian Federation, the scandal with the Wagner PMC and attributed to themselves 80% of the votes. And the fact that they are attributed, now after thousands of protest demonstrations, no one doubts.
Dad was let down by the pre-election fuss. He was so afraid of losing that he did everything in order to lose. Starting with the landing of their competitors, and ending with the disconnection of the Internet and the violent dispersal of demonstrators. Having such an administrative resource, he could do nothing at all until the elections. Just sit and wait. Yes, he would not have won 80-85% of the votes, but he easily got 55-60% of his votes. And the more competitors he had, the more percent they would have taken from each other, thereby ensuring his victory in the first round. But fear has big eyes! And a real leader must exude confidence and thus suppress opponents. Dad exuded confidence only that he would have problems. And they arose!
Already now it is clear that this was not at all the intrigues of the foreign backstage (I generally keep quiet about the Kremlin's hand!). It was only an internal factor that worked. Metal fatigue is such a term. The people are just tired of Luke! The jerks who took to the streets with the slogans: "Father, go away!", Did not see anything else but him, they were born already under Lukashenka. And they don't care that they have everything they have only thanks to the cunning and resourcefulness of their president, who, balancing between the hammer of the Russian Federation and the anvil of the West, skillfully playing on the internal contradictions between them, for 26 years sought financing of the needs of the Republic of Belarus at the expense of the treasury of the Russian Federation.
If, for the sake of fun, they went to the regions of the Russian Federation adjacent to the Republic of Belarus and looked at how people live there, they would be unpleasantly amazed. And in the Pskov, Smolensk, and Bryansk regions of the Russian Federation, people live much simpler and less prosperous. What, one wonders, and why? Ask the old man how he achieved this and at whose expense? But who remembers this now: “Tyrant, go away! I'm tired of it! " And no one thinks at the same time, and what will happen next? Look at Libya. The Libyan Jamahiriya was the richest state on the African continent, the population of which did not have any economic, no social problems, they all lived as under communism, bathing in oil and dollars from its sale. The income from this was distributed equitably (Islamic, of course!) To the eaters, each born Libyan automatically received 10 thousand dollars into his account, which he could dispose of after he came of age, and all this time, interest was charged on this amount. The level of education of the population in 2009 was 86,8%. In 2011, these educated people stoned their benefactor, the leader of the Libyan revolution, Muammar Gaddafi, and along with his son Muttazim, exposing their bodies in a refrigerator for all to see. Since then, this country no longer exists, and the people who inhabited it are mired in wars and poverty. If this example does not teach you anything, look at Ukraine, which slipped 6 years after its Maidan to the bottom of the food chain of the Western world and turned into a beggar of Europe and the IMF.
The country of unafraid fools
According to the results of the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus, published on Friday August 14, 4,661 million people voted for Lukashenko, 588 thousand people voted for his opponent Tikhanovskaya (along with other candidates, including the candidate “against all”, about 1,1 million people voted against the father. who came to the polls 5,8 million). At the same time, about 20 thousand of the 1 million who voted against the father took to the streets of the capital, and none of the 4,6 million who voted for him. Vague doubts begin to gnaw at me, but was there a boy? Why do not those who voted for Lukashenka take to the streets, at least to defend their choice? Or are they happy with everything?
Believe me, I myself personally do not feel absolutely any sympathy for the boorish arrogant bumpkin who has become bronzed at his post, who is just the right time to command a collective farm or a state farm, and not an entire country with a population of 9 million. But, firstly, there is no other alternative yet (and he personally worried about it), and secondly, we must pay tribute to him, he did a good job with the responsibilities assigned to him, preserving both Soviet production, inherited by him, and the markets sales in the Russian Federation, and social benefits that were presented to the inhabitants of the USSR and which citizens of other countries, which were once Soviet republics, have already begun to forget. Believe me, I have something to compare with. You start to notice the absence of air only when there is none. In the meantime, you breathe and breathe, what's so special about it? You can immediately forget about free medicine and the guaranteed free education, citizens of Belarus. This atavism of the Soviet era will sink immediately along with the tyrant you hate. As well as low tariffs for housing and communal services, departmental sanatoriums and dispensaries, pioneer camps and other attributes of Soviet life.
Under capitalism, the motto of which is only profit and excess profit, the owner gets rid of non-core assets and raises prices wherever possible. In Ukraine, they got rid of not only non-core, but even core assets, cutting into metal the largest in Europe and the second in the world Black Sea Shipping Company (this is still under Kravchuk-Kuchma), Nikolaev shipyards, hundreds of factories, one just wants to say, newspapers, steamers, but it is. Now they are finishing off the latter at an accelerated pace - the aviation industry (Antonov, KhAZ), the auto industry (ZAZ no longer produces anything, KRAZ is barely alive with defense orders), heavy engineering (Turboatom, KhTZ, Yuzhmash instead of missiles produces frying pans, they survived!) - here the list is so long, that I don't even want to continue it. The workers of BelAZ, MAZ, MTZ, BMZ, Belshiny, Grodno-Azot and other enterprises who went on strike do not even imagine how all this will turn out for them personally. Truly - a country of naive, unafraid fools, in the good sense of the word.
Once again I was convinced of this, right to tears, watching the picture of protests that covered the capital of the Republic of Belarus. Quite often people with bright, beautiful young faces who sacredly believe in all good and oppose all bad. An illustrative example of this was a picture of protesters who took off their shoes before climbing onto a bench. So there is a row of sneakers and shoes next to the shop, while their owners enthusiastically shoot everything that happens on their phones and smartphones. Believe me, in Ukraine, not everyone takes off their shoes even when they enter the house, I even keep quiet about the benches with legs. RB is truly an oasis of unclouded consciousness and childish naivety, which Western curators of such protests will not fail to take advantage of (they have already taken advantage of it, the process has begun, you cannot put the paste back in the tube!). And you yourself will learn the common truth that the romantics make the revolution, and the scoundrels and scoundrels use the fruits of it. And so it was in Ukraine, with the only difference that local scoundrels and scoundrels were wiped out from the trough of power by their foreign colleagues, taking advantage of the fruits of the coup and seizing control. And with you, dear Belarusians, it will be the same!
If you peer into the abyss for a long time, then the abyss begins to peer into you!
But this is not your fault, Luke himself brought this misfortune to himself. Over the 26 years of his permanent rule, he has so cleaned up the Belarusian electoral field that there is not something that политическая opposition, just at least some more or less significant weed could not grow, everything was immediately uprooted. As a result, all his political opponents at the time of the last elections were either in prison, or in the ground, or on the run abroad. He created, in fact, a police state with very powerful law enforcement agencies, staffed with reliable personnel, selected according to the principle of personal loyalty, into whose hands the best imported technique, which the dad did not skimp on.
The Belarusian KGB was in no way inferior to the Russian FSB, and in some ways even surpassed it. More than once or twice the special forces of the KGB RB (group "A" of the KGB RB) won the competition among the special forces, where their Russian colleagues also took part (and the "A" department of the Central Security Service of the FSB of the Russian Federation, and the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation). Their colleagues from the SPBT "Almaz", who are in the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, did not graze there either. In 2014, Belarusian snipers from the anti-terror group of the KGB of the Republic of Bashkortostan won the World Cup among police officers and military snipers, which was attended by 58 teams from 16 countries, including the Alpha unit of the Central Security Service of the FSB of the Russian Federation. It is also worth noting the Belarusian SOBR of the Internal Troops of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, which took prizes at the international police all-round competition SWAT Challenge 2020, where specialists from the Vityaz Center of the National Guard of the Russian Armed Forces also took part.
It is clear that with such a cover, the dad could still rest on the emperor's laurels for a long time, thinking how to pass these regalia inherited to his son Kolya. There was not even an American embassy in the country, not to mention any enemy NGOs. It got to the point that all his worst enemies did not even think about how to overthrow the last dictator of Europe, doomedly awaiting his physical death. They could only sharpen their teeth at him and wait. And here such luck! Old Man himself gave them such a chance. Do not be surprised that pocket dogs from the pack of American Bull Terriers, trained to smell blood, immediately grabbed him with their teeth. All these Polish-Baltic limitrophes, feeding on carrion, like jackals attack only a wounded animal. Prior to that, they just groaned and whined in frustration, not doubting for a second that Lukashenka would win the next elections. What can I say, even if their American patron Sherkhan Donald did not take any steps to remove the Belarusian Akela, fearing that he would immediately go under the auspices of the Kremlin bear Baloo. All sorts of democratic Banderlog sorcerers still wove their lace around the Belarusian wolf pack, but they could not really do anything. And then Akela missed, after which he was immediately seized by all his enemies, from overseas Banderlog and ending with the nearest Polish-Lithuanian jackals. And these guys know their business, do not wash so by rolling, they will finish their victim. Not now, so in a year. They have a dead grip, they are trained on human flesh. As they say, if the claw is stuck, the bird is over!
And here the Kremlin bear Baloo has to say his word, but he is silent. While silent. We are waiting for the development of the situation. Vova-Balu, no less than Akela, is interested in the Belarusian wolf pack not to go to any jackals and hyenas from the nearest Polish-Baltic-Ukrainian encirclement, thereby blocking the RF corridor to the West, completely cutting off the Kaliningrad region from the metropolis and closing the ring of enemies around the RF , fulfilling the brightest dreams of Brzezinski and Pilsudski.
To betray in time means not to betray, but to foresee!
And now the moment has come when everything already depends not on the dad, but on his entourage. We look carefully! A situation of unstable equilibrium cannot last long. As the author of the previous quote (see subtitle above) Talleyrand said:
"Bayonets are good for everyone, except for one thing - you can't sit on them."
Whoever betrays Lukashenka from his inner circle first runs the risk of taking his place in the near future. It will be good if it is the Kremlin's henchman. What will happen if jackals and hyenas are ahead of the bear, I don't even want to think. Putin has all the cards in his hands. How he will dispose of them, we will see in the near future. This is the disposition on the board. We sit. We look ...