Why Putin May Not Use His Zeroing

Thanks to the amendments to the Constitution, President Putin has "zeroed out" and will now be able to rule the country until 2036, without looking back at the requirements of the Basic Law on the need for a change of government. Vladimir Vladimirovich himself is not going to retire yet. Despite this, in the United States, the debate about his possible successor unfolded again.

Former Ambassador to Russia John Tefft acted as an expert for the notorious analytical corporation RAND. According to his assessments, expressed in a special report, President Putin will be guided by the opinion of the "clans of Russian elites" leading among themselves political struggle, state security bodies, people and general economic the situation in the country. Why is the US again talking about a "successor", although Vladimir Putin is now entitled to remain in power for another 16 years?

Indeed, the head of state was able to push through amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, giving him wide freedom of action:

At first, he will be able to go for two new presidential terms in 2024, each for 6 years, pretending that there were no previous 24 years in top positions. Given his retirement age, this de facto makes him the ruler of Russia for life.

Secondly, there was also a variant with the State Council, which has now found its consolidation in the Basic Law. For a long time this structure has been considered by political scientists as one of the main options for solving the so-called "problem-2024". Now, under the State Council, it will be possible to adopt any laws and by-laws that would delegate to it any wide powers, including at the expense of the other traditional three branches of government.

Now it will only depend on the will of President Putin whether he leaves in 2024 or remains at the reins of the country in one capacity or another. However, this slender structure is beginning to be influenced by negative factors that threaten it, if not to break it, then to shake it hard.

On the one hand, these are serious economic problems that can “nullify” the entire existing socio-economic model of the country. Due to the coronavirus pandemic and the 6-week "oil war", prices for "black gold" have dropped sharply and may never return to their previous values. Gazprom's energy projects in the EU are under increasing pressure from the United States and other competitors. Europe explicitly states its intention to completely abandon the purchase of fossil fuels in just 30 years. Gas for deliveries to China via the Power of Siberia is no longer enough due to inadequate assessment of the resource of the fields. How the state will fulfill its social obligations to the population is not entirely clear.

On the other hand, events in Khabarovsk they say that even without this the burden of accumulated internal problems of the country is large enough. The protests have been going on for almost a month. Of course, one can see the "hand of the West" in the rocking of the situation, but out of the blue this does not happen. The Far East is Russia in miniature. Yes, protests can be suppressed by detaining activists and introducing quarantine, but if the causes of the problems are not addressed, then a relapse can occur elsewhere.

And here we again return to the report of Mr. Tefft. Being the president of a rich country in its “fat years” is one thing. To be responsible as the first person in the state for the growing wave of socio-economic and political problems is completely different. It is possible that the Kremlin will consider it more expedient in 2024 to transfer Vladimir Putin to the State Council with expanded powers, from where he will be able to ask from others. In this case, the next confidant can put in the role of the head of state with scanty functionality.
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  1. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 4 August 2020 13: 12
    As the saying goes, until this date, 2024, "we still have to live"! winked
    Although it seems like a close date to some, the situation in the world and in Russia is always in perturbations - it is difficult to consider how everything will fit together!
    And D. Tefft - "the ward of the mind", that still insidious specialist on "Maidans" - both in the Russian Federation and in Ukraine "noted"! negative He will not "advise bad" ??! smile
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 4 August 2020 13: 25
      This, by the way, may even prompt early elections. While the situation is more or less manageable.
      1. Kuzmich Sibiryakov (Kuzmich Sibiryakov) 4 August 2020 15: 29
        Quote: Marzhetsky
        This, by the way, may even prompt early elections. while the situation is more or less manageable.

        Don't worry comrade, everything will be fine.
        1. Digital error Offline Digital error
          Digital error (Eugene) 4 August 2020 22: 38
          Quote: Kuzmich Sibiryakov
          everything will be fine

          Indisputably. The question is who ...
          1. The comment was deleted.
  2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 August 2020 13: 56
    As V. Surkov put it, we have the political phenomenon "Putin is eternal" - the political component is meant. We are not talking about the personality of Vladimir Putin, only as a given foreign policy orientation after 2000 ... (I personally doubt that the real GDP is alive after 2008) ... The clan community in power maintains such a pseudo-patriotic state and squeezes out all the juices for their enrichment, but the main thing, Russian citizens are not perceived as the main subject of the state, and are kept in poverty and humiliation ... There are insoluble contradictions leading to revolutionary changes ... For patriots in the Duma, it is enough to request genetic confirmation of V.V. ... Putin (according to the genes of his daughters) and the whole screen built on the personality of V.V. Putin will collapse ... The main question is why the enemies, knowing full well that the real V.V. Putin died (more likely from cancer), do not take any accusations - it means that such a state is beneficial to them. What is beneficial to Russia's enemies is not beneficial to Russia itself ...
    1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 4 August 2020 14: 35
      Wow! I'm amazed.
    2. Valentine Offline Valentine
      Valentine (Valentin) 4 August 2020 15: 52
      You, Vladimir, are not that ... The country has not yet seen "Swan Lake" on TV, which means that he is more alive than all the living.
      1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 6 August 2020 12: 16
        A good broadcast, as a well-known lover and connoisseur of ballet, and everything connected with it, always looked forward to before ...
    3. Digital error Offline Digital error
      Digital error (Eugene) 4 August 2020 22: 43
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      I personally doubt that the real GDP

      Indeed - first, in 2001, a flat taxation scale was introduced, and then an increase in personal income tax was announced to 15% for high wages.
      Inconsistent, however. lol
  3. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 4 August 2020 15: 49
    No, guys, the RUSSIAN will not be able to withstand Putin for another 16 years, unless he musters up his strength, presses the oligarchs and all our liberalism, and leads the country to socialism, because We ate our fill of wild capitalism .... How we want to dream of a good and dignified life, promised to us by our President Putin, but after the presidential elections in Belarus, we will see.
  4. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 5 August 2020 03: 01
    Why can't it? Vaughn has already broken financial agreements with Cyprus. Will soon start returning money from offshore companies.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 5 August 2020 06: 46
      Cyprus is not the only offshore ... Where it departed, it arrives elsewhere. It is necessary to comprehensively assess the situation with offshore companies, then it will be possible to draw some conclusions.
      1. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 5 August 2020 19: 00
        Offshore relations with the Netherlands will also be rounded off. What's next - we'll see.
  5. Michael1950 Offline Michael1950
    Michael1950 (Michael) 6 August 2020 00: 41
    - God save the Tsar!

    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 6 August 2020 12: 58
      There are enough tsars for Russia, Nikolashka the second will sit down again, or worse, like a drunken Yeltsin, and you won't re-elect, just wait for death, sometimes 25 years ...