It will not be easy for Russia to win the new “gas war” with Qatar


Coronavirus, oil and economic the crisis is not all the “surprises” that 2020 has in store for us. Warm winters and a drop in production associated with the same quarantine significantly reduced gas demand.


In the most difficult situation was Qatar, the world's leading LNG supplier. And now the state has only two ways to solve the problem: to start a significant reduction in production or go into a “financial attack”, as Saudi Arabia once did.

The first option is unacceptable for Doha, as this means the collapse of all the ambitious plans of the kingdom, which is the undeniable leadership in the LNG market. The second one, which provides for a glut of the market with cheap energy, which will lead to a negative value of quotations for liquefied natural gas and unprofitable production, is more likely.

This is indirectly indicated by the deal, during which the kingdom reserved capacities from South Korea for the construction of 100 gas carriers in the amount of more than $ 20 billion. A few more of these ships will be built in China. In addition, Doha announced the creation of new LNG plants.

In this situation, it was very timely for Russia to create its own center for the construction of LNG tankers in the Far East. But it is unlikely that the construction of ships will solve the emerging problem.

Doha will have to negotiate, and a format like the oil OPEC could be the most acceptable option. However, will Qatar do this, aimed at completely crowding out competitors from the LNG market?

It is worth considering the fact that in the gas sector, unlike oil, a smaller share of natural rent, and more capital costs. Consequently, future agreements to limit production are extremely doubtful, as each participant will seek to quickly pay back the investment.

In addition, competition with coal and renewable energy puts pressure on the cost of blue fuel. Consequently, an agreement to reduce production by 1-2% will not lead to a sharp increase in prices, as in the oil industry.

Thus, the creation of a cartel is now difficult, which means that we are all waiting for a gas war. At the same time, only Russia, but the USA with its expensive LNG, is at risk of suffering from it. There will be no winners in this war.

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  1. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 26 June 2020 11: 12
    +1
    When they write about the competition of LNG in Russia and other countries, they constantly forget about geography. Everyone, it seems, understands that the climate of Yamal is somewhat different from the climate of Qatar or the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. But almost no one writes that this difference in climate makes the cost of liquefying gas in the Yamal Peninsula 30% lower than in Qatar, Algeria, and the southern United States.
    In addition, an LNG terminal and a gas liquefaction plant are under construction in the same Ust-Luga. There, although not Yamal, but not Qatar (in the sense of climate). In addition, a plant is being built there to process high molecular weight fractions of natural gas into plastics, varnishes / paints, etc., which will also further reduce the total cost of LNG. And the logistic shoulders from Yamal (especially from Ust-Luga) to the terminals of Europe are smaller than from Qatar and the USA.
    So, the prospects for a price war on LNG are sad for Qatar and the United States.
  2. 123 Online 123
    123 (123) 26 June 2020 20: 05
    0
    The author of the video is a visionary.
    If anything, Qatar's foreign exchange reserves for April 2020 are 55 billion and 729 tons of gold.
    https://take-profit.org/statistics/foreign-exchange-reserves/qatar/
    Government debt 65,8% of GDP
    The budget balance for the year decreased by more than 2 times, as of May 13, 2020, the budget deficit was 0,9%.


    If you drop the price of gas to minus, after a year you can start thinking about cattle breeding.
    I believe the feat of the neighbors will not risk repeating, they will agree.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 26 June 2020 20: 35
      +2
      Qatar has more significant financial reserves (per person), so there is no reason to hope for bankruptcy. You should have gotten involved in conflicts, as in Libya or with the Saudis, then everything would have looked different ... Therefore, you give a revolution in Qatar to Daesh or some other movement for the rights of women, employees, etc., - Americans in We've gotten used to this, it's time for us to remember the skills of the USSR ... Yes, it's a pity, the recent failures of special operations abroad indicate a complete "optimization" and a galvanized failure of the Foreign Ministry, the GRU and others ...
      1. 123 Online 123
        123 (123) 26 June 2020 21: 09
        +2
        Qatar has more significant financial reserves (per capita), so there is no reason to hope for bankruptcy.

        You look at the link there, how much they spend per year. In terms of (per person) I do not see the point.
        As for the rest - I agree, only exporting instability is an unseemly task, sooner or later the boomerang will return. I guess this is not our way. hi
  3. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 27 June 2020 04: 16
    0
    the kingdom has reserved capacity from South Korea to build 100 gas carriers in the amount of more than $ 20 billion.

    “This is what I understand ...” the intelligent Yuzhn is lucky. Korea ... - Like a bush ...- such orders ... - And your people at work (jobs), and a solid infusion into the state budget ... - And there will continue to be similar injections ...- The clientele will surely even grow, i.e. - orders will increase for the construction of gas carriers (yes, Russia will order dozens of such ships) ...
    - And no arms trade is needed ... - Russia is still babbling with India ... - everything is trying to drive her tanks and planes ... - And it seems to be concluding agreements on the supply of its weapons ... - But what is there Russia gets from this in real life ... - It's good if cash receives one third of the agreed amount ... - And the rest will go back to India for bribing local "rajahs" there; on the forced creation by Russia of joint Russian-Hindu enterprises (which Russia needs like ... like ... like last year's snow: but this is the demand of the Indians); for deliveries to India and debugging of Russian equipment, so that the Indians themselves can produce spare parts and components (this is also the requirement of the Indians); to provide licenses for the production of Russian weapons in India (which is colossally unprofitable for Russia, but this is also India's demand); and the payment by the Indians for the supplied armaments of some part of the amount ... - with their own Hindu goods (if you like, take it, but you don't want it; but this will all be included in the payment amount) ... etc. etc...
    - How much is there left of the real amount stipulated in the contract in the "bottom line" ???
    - Well, this is Pupkin's simple arithmetic ... - That's all the "commerce" for the supply and "sale" of Russian weapons in ... century. India ... - Yes, and the sale of Russian weapons to other states looks about the same ... - With the same Turkey ... first, Russia gives Turkey its loans so that Turkey would buy Russian weapons, then supplies its weapons; well, and then it just ... - waits for "weather by the sea" ... - Like this ... - And for many Russia then simply writes off debts ... - and that's the end of it ...
    - Well, with gas

    It will not be easy for Russia to win the new “gas war” with Qatar

    - It depends on who on the part of Russia will fight in this "new" gas war "with Qatar" ...
    - If NOVATEK; then no one will envy Rossi ... - This is a fraudster and a swindler, even worse than Gazprom ...
    - And in such a large and colossal cheating game, NOVATEK's hands are completely untied ...:

    In this situation, it was very timely for Russia to create its own center for the construction of LNG tankers in the Far East. But it is unlikely that the construction of ships will solve the emerging problem.

    - This is the creation of the Zvezda shipyard - this is one of NOVATEK's major scams, which he has already managed to pull off ... - Well, then ... everything will go the same course ...
    - So further discuss this topic ...- personally, I have no desire ...
  4. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 28 June 2020 08: 10
    0
    When comparing the gold reserves of Qatar and Russia, it is worth understanding that the resources of Qatar in finances will increase sharply, given the foreign ownership of both state and private individuals. Qatar 2 has long existed - investments abroad.
    At the same time, the dependence on hydrocarbons is almost absolute, although in the gas war they are at maximum threatened by the prospect of switching from black caviar to red caviar.
    Well, one should not understand economic wars as something very tragic, they are usually short-lived and come down to gaining or losing part of the market, and this usually does not lead to strangulation of warring economies.