Expert: Russia is a “third world country” and may collapse after the USSR

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With low oil prices, Russia may well follow the Soviet Union, writes George Friedman on the MarketWatch business website. In the old days, Moscow’s control of energy supplies worried Europe very much, but now that the global market is full of hydrocarbons, this threat is forever a thing of the past.

Now the Kremlin itself is in a quandary.



The Soviet Union fell for many reasons - inefficiency and corruption have been the pillars of the system for decades, but everything changed in the eighties. On the one hand, defense spending rose sharply as Moscow tried to keep up with the United States. On the other hand, energy prices fell, while Russians were heavily dependent on energy sales.

- reminds the author.

And he considers the Soviet Union and modern Russia “Potemkin villages”, whose power has traditionally been exaggerated in the West. Behind the facade of well-being lies decline.

Russia's task is not to create a new generation of hypersonic missiles and not to invest in advanced Technology. Russia's task now is to avoid collapse

- notes Mr. Friedman.

He called Russia "the country of the third world."

Noting the patience of the Russian people, the expert recalls that when he still rebels, as in 1917 or 1991, things that seemed unshakable collapse.

Reader comments are given selectively:

This article is not the case. Russia has a free-floating ruble exchange rate that levels out oil shocks. The Russian Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and Putin are one and the same. Russia is not going anywhere. The problem is that you are publishing an article by a political scientist. He is not an economist.

Russians are now autonomous in many areas economicsincluding the production of most food products. Their agricultural achievements are very noticeable, and although they did not become the world's first producer of wheat, the Russian Federation is the largest exporter of grain. It is amazing how sanctions contribute to self-sufficiency.

Putin acts in the mindset of the 20th century [...], but his power has failed to diversify the economy and all innovations, and now Russia is unprepared for the future.

Can we find a way to destabilize the Russian government?

Let's see how the Russian plutocracy will react to this - in this sense, the Italian mafia can teach a couple of history lessons.
79 comments
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  1. +2
    April 25 2020 11: 49
    Let's see how the Russian plutocracy will react to this ..

    Will not react in any way. For the simple reason that directly to plutocracy, all these rather serious problems do not bother at all.
    I think that the position and behavior of one recent prime minister is very indicative in this regard: they came up with a special post for him, where he receives the prime minister’s salary and has all the old nishtyaks, including the house for his beloved ducks. And since everything remained in place for him, the interests of Russia and the problems of its population are strictly parallel and violet.
  2. -16
    April 25 2020 11: 50
    Can not. We have boys, fashionably dressed, with assault rifles, we must be able to block roads and create artificial traffic jams from the coronavirus at 16:00 p.m. so that, probably, in public transport on the tonsils, they scored people with their crippled bus, the driver, as always, is non-Russian, home on the artificially created stupid bosses of those boys with machine guns, traffic jams on the verge, so that everyone would become infected, I guess. And in pharmacies there are NO remedies, plus TV shows about someone beloved Putin look like a mockery. And in general, where is that coronavirus and where are the promises of that Putin, with their plans cunning. And in the evening it will pop out again from its gloomy hollow, about the fact that everything is going to work out for us, plus loans, the size of the salary. In general, in the Kremlin, are you going to save Russia as a country?
    1. +5
      April 25 2020 15: 03
      Quote: Observer2014
      with your plans cunning

      The trickiest plan is to plan nothing and act according to circumstances. It’s more reliable, otherwise spies, foreign agents and the 125th convoy of Polovtsy with the Pechenegs will steal this plan and put up all sorts of obstacles to it, which will then have to be steadily overcome ...
      1. +1
        April 28 2020 21: 11
        The trickiest plan is to plan nothing and act according to circumstances.

        Or not to act, just to say - everything is going according to a cunning plan, and then immediately "on the tails", "on the tails." good
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. +5
      April 26 2020 11: 59
      You do not go far to your own. There they will fill up the pension and feed it, jump on a kreshchatik, well, change the flag to your own.
  3. -12
    April 25 2020 12: 00
    It will not collapse, it will pass under secret control ... although de facto it has long been under it.
    1. +1
      April 25 2020 14: 34
      Quote: Alexander Semyonov
      will go under tacit control.

      Rulers, apparently, BDSM. They are creating billions of dollars in losses with the help of the Russian army, are forced to reduce the number of torturers, push along the roads of Syria with Russian patrols, and remove thousands of accounts with malicious remarks from Mordoknig that overturn the election system of fair-faced executioners.
  4. +11
    April 25 2020 12: 35
    America is a third world country in which thousands of people die every day from a simple disease (!). And are these savages dreaming of something? Get off the trees and go to treat your people.
    1. +4
      April 25 2020 14: 38
      Quote: King3214
      Get off the trees

      They cut down trees a long time ago. At the beginning of the last century. And they live in plywood booths, in which a Russian dog is ashamed to live - and the wind blows, and you can’t bark quietly.
    2. DPN
      -4
      April 25 2020 17: 39
      This third world country, while spinning and spinning the rest of the world, and without it $$$$, no country can live. She managed to ruin the USSR, everything else is a trifle for her while using her $$$$$. The United States puts the world on its ears when it wants to, they do not allow power changers and traitors to power, and this, see, is their strength. WE can’t do that.
      1. +4
        April 26 2020 12: 03
        There is another side - who turns whom. We can say that many simply parasitize and suck juice from a lousy dog, China, the EU, agreeing with many * hegemon *, build their economy while there is something to take from a sheep.
      2. +1
        April 26 2020 22: 13
        But you can ride with pots on your head)
      3. +2
        7 May 2020 12: 31
        This is not a country at all. There is no state-forming ethnos. It is a corporation, a state-chimera of traders, with an exemplary (for the time being), neat consumer pig farm. The Khazar Kaganate also stood for 300 years, but where did everyone run away overnight when the sources of the gesheft were cut off? One has only to shake the possibility of an unpunished emission of dollars in the "third world", and then we will look at the "great American bonds" - they will tear each other and eat, and the owners of the circus will hide the assets in "more reliable" investments. From the point of view of real (and not ostentatious) statehood, the Misters did not stand next to Germany, France, and even more so with Russia.
    3. -16
      April 25 2020 18: 07
      My dear man, yes, people in your country are dying of that coronavirus no less than in the States, I think that even more, your media simply don’t cover the real scale of the disaster - they write pneumonia, acute respiratory infections or some kind of bronchitis as the cause of death. Russian sculptors do not have to take the experience of falsifying diagnoses - they practice this method all the way. As the plowmen from the Kremlin say, they will write, and you believe in fairy tales. In addition, in Russia, and without any newfangled viruses, there is a steady tendency to depopulation of the titular nation - in simple terms: Russians die, each year the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. That way in 20-30 years in Russia some Muslims will remain, Chechens, Dagis and Tatars breed like rabbits ... request
      1. +2
        April 26 2020 23: 23
        ..you in Russia from that coronavirus dies to the people no less than in the States, I think that even more ...

        What do you think, let me know?
        1. -4
          April 27 2020 02: 44
          I think, dear, that part of the body, which, apparently, you do not have as unnecessary - the head.
          1. +1
            April 27 2020 10: 04
            Well, yes, I’m not a port loader to live with motor reflexes alone) Part of the body)))
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  5. -5
    April 25 2020 12: 38
    Again, the unknown foreign "Xperd" and anonymous commentators ...
    There are no prophets in their own country ...
    1. -10
      April 25 2020 18: 12
      A clever Jew, you see, this Friedman - correctly noticed everything, not a couple to his fellow tribesman Soloviev. Yes
      1. 0
        April 27 2020 16: 38
        For your intelligence and Solovyov - an unattainable value)
        1. The comment was deleted.
    2. +5
      April 26 2020 12: 05
      Again unknown to anyone Sergey Latyshev inserted his five kopecks, although no one asked - what does this famous person think about the article and comments.
  6. -1
    April 25 2020 14: 18
    Quote: Sergey Latyshev
    Again, the unknown foreign "Xperd" and anonymous commentators ...
    There are no prophets in their own country ...

    You don’t understand anything! Following the crisis, Russia will become a world leader, buying up cheaper enterprises around the world. Russia's global advantage in high technology will make it possible to introduce and tighten the embargo against the West. Poseidons and Armats will provide the highest standard of living for Russians in the world.
    1. -3
      April 25 2020 21: 29
      Wah! Right! Already write - buy up.

      But only for some reason, the Saudis are buying cheaper shares of enterprises around the world ...
  7. +2
    April 25 2020 14: 24
    What does it mean to "collapse"? When the USSR collapsed, Russia lost not only Russian lands and population, but also industry! Now a controlling stake in large industrial enterprises is held by foreigners. What does Mr. Friedman mean by "collapse"? Nationalization? Return of Russian lands? He destroys what is going? Gazprom? Rosneft? So there the board of directors is 80% representatives of the USA, England and Germany! Conclusion: An old and sick person who does not own information.
  8. +5
    April 25 2020 14: 26
    The author is an illiterate mediocrity. If we open the statistical yearbook of the USSR for 1982, then we can see that the share of the export of all energy carriers in the budget income of the USSR amounted to about 10% of all income!
    1. -5
      April 25 2020 23: 02
      Today, hydrocarbon export revenue is one third of Russia's budget. And without him, Putin will not keep his pants and the country will be left with a bare booty, which will be urgently covered by new taxes and requisitions.
      1. +3
        April 26 2020 16: 14
        Income and power retention are completely different things. For Saudis, oil is 100% of income, both internal and external. And nothing is puffing yet, although it’s not as fun as in the 80s - the population has grown by an order of magnitude.
        1. -3
          April 26 2020 16: 43
          income and power retention are two completely different things

          You're laughing? If the president has no income, then how will he retain power? Who will contain the repressive apparatus and the army? Who will pay state employees a salary? Who will provide social protection to the population? And so forth
          Well, here, for example, if you do not pay your salary on time, you will tell the employer: yes you went! - and you will be right. Same thing with the president. And you can also demand compensation for your moral suffering.
          Therefore, there are no presidents without income.
          1. +1
            April 26 2020 22: 56
            ... According to the data of 2018, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget was about 45%. This is a high indicator, but the fact is that the Federal budget is only part of the total (consolidated budget). The share of oil in the consolidated budget, which includes regional and local budgets, is already half as low. And besides, it is necessary to understand what the “share of oil and gas revenues” is, and from which this indicator is formed in the country's budget.
            In the zero years, the share of oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget sharply increased, but it is usually not taken into account what exactly they were. Meanwhile, according to the norms of the Ministry of Finance, they are formed by the following articles: mineral extraction tax (oil, gas and gas condensate), as well as export customs duties on crude oil, gas and goods derived from oil. That is, if the taxes levied on the oil industry increase, so does the share of oil and gas in the Russian budget. But in this case, it is not the country's dependence on the sale of hydrocarbons that grows, but its income from exports of the same volume of raw materials.
            But Western propaganda and its own “fifth column” has been touted for years as an increase in dependence.

            What do you say?
            1. -3
              2 May 2020 14: 57
              I will say that not a single president will retain power in the country without income!
              There is only one question. How much money will remain in the country's budget after a reduction in oil and gas revenues. Undoubtedly, the financing of the repressive apparatus will not suffer. Reduce spending on every little thing: the army, social programs, education, science, sports, etc. wassat
          2. +2
            April 26 2020 23: 05
            ... by the beginning of the 2000s, the federal budget depended on oil exports for only 9,3%. It would seem that here it is - no oil needle. But no, there was a needle, it was just that the state did not receive any income from it. Only after a total purge of the oil and gas sector and the oligarchs in the period of zero, did the sector manage to tax heavily and the budget began to be formed by them by almost half ..
            In addition, a significant part of oil revenues during the years of ultra-high oil prices was formed in the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, and it was these early measures that made it possible in 2014-2017 for the US to try to arrange another man-made collapse of the oil market ..

            iarex
      2. +1
        April 26 2020 22: 46
        ..According to the results of 2018 (according to the UN and US EIA), the share of oil exports in Russia's GDP was only 9%. For comparison, the share of oil exports in the GDP of Norway exceeds 11%. In Kazakhstan's GDP - 27%. Canada’s GDP is not much less than in the Russian economy and is 3%. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, form their GDP from oil at 45% and 25% respectively.

        Iarex
      3. +2
        April 26 2020 22: 49
        ... There is another scale for assessing the level of dependence of countries on the extraction of raw materials, namely the annual production of oil and gas per capita. This is a logical imperative, because it shows the ratio of the number of citizens of a country and oil and gas revenues of the state per person.

        According to this indicator (in 2016 prices), Russia is in 14th place. Canada bypasses Russia with a much greater dependence, raising it to 12th place, Norway to 4th and Qatar to 1st. That is, in absolute terms of annual production on the CSF (per capita in the country), Qatar bypasses us 13 times. Norway produces 5 times more oil and gas for every citizen, Turkmenistan 2 times.

        iarex
  9. +4
    April 25 2020 19: 07
    Nowhere will Russia disappear and not collapse, but will be restored to its original form.
    1. -7
      April 25 2020 22: 56
      Russia ... will recover in its original form.

      As the USSR? Russian empire? Kievan Rus? Or intergalactic union?
      1. +2
        April 25 2020 23: 17
        Russian Empire, of course, because to everything else, we will not return.
        1. -7
          April 26 2020 10: 44
          For the emergence of an empire, a strong army and economy are needed, which Russia does not yet have. Therefore, I consider all applications for the restoration of the Russian Empire premature.
      2. +3
        April 26 2020 22: 21
        Kievan Rus? Well, the idea is not bad. Kiev also needs to be returned. And all that is around. Russians back to Russia, Poles to Poland.
  10. -7
    April 25 2020 22: 51
    The problem is that you are publishing an article by a political scientist. He is not an economist.

    The economist would draw the line and say: yes, you, my friend, are in the ass! Let's see what S&P and Moody's tell us. It seems to me that nothing good. Instead of helping the economy, the government is spending money from the NWF to buy Sberbank from the Central Bank, which got it for free. And on the horizon are still sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt, and so on. Just right for Aivazovsky to paint the picture "They sailed."
    1. +6
      April 26 2020 00: 28
      Quote: Winnie
      ... Let's see what S&P and Moody's tell us. It seems to me that nothing good. ...

      Of course, of course, your agencies, well, they’ll write the pure truth, believe in this and beyond - experts have come to the fore here, they haven’t yet learned to distinguish 100 from 90, but they are already trying to shine with their minds, well, well. bully laughing hi
      1. -6
        April 26 2020 10: 23
        your agencies

        Agencies are not mine and not yours. From their assessment of the country's economy depends on how much the crisis will cost us.

        Well, the pure truth, the uterus will be written

        Compared to a zombie box, yes.
        1. +3
          April 26 2020 12: 10
          If you compare the zombie boxes with us and your true sponsors, then yes, ours are so just learning to lie.
          1. +2
            April 26 2020 12: 37
            The one to whom you answer has a different task - to show how everything is bad with us, and it will be even worse ...
            This "not Pooh" does not even realize that you can not watch the box at all - I used to have exceptions, volleyball - basketball, but now it's all stopped, so there is nothing to watch ...
            1. -2
              April 26 2020 14: 56
              the task is different - to show how everything is bad with us, and it will be even worse ...

              And what's wrong with that? Is anyone offended by the truth? We all rolled before this. Why are you 76% happy with everything? Why don't you want to live better? You can talk about flaws a thousand times, but no one will even lift a finger to fix them. Our power is deaf to the people and serves only our interests. sad
              1. +3
                April 26 2020 15: 38
                Quote: Winnie
                ... Is anyone offended by the truth? We all rolled before this. Why are you 76% happy with everything? Why don't you want to live better? ...

                To write about the truth after the post that all weapons-grade plutonium was sold, but now it’s worth what’s worth in the mines? bully
                And there is a suspicion that the expression "living better" I and you understand differently - here your colleague, according to the writing that everything is bad with us, not so long ago wrote that the universal "system of values ​​of the West" won, under this system of values ​​he has designated jeans, cola, chewing gum, etc., so I don't need such a system of "values". hi
                1. -2
                  April 26 2020 16: 55
                  to write about the truth after the post that all weapons-grade plutonium was sold, but now in the mines it’s worth what?

                  And what bothers you so much? True, not coinciding with the tales of Agitprom?

                  The HEU-LEU agreement (high enriched uranium - low enriched uranium) is an intergovernmental agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States of America concluded in Washington on February 18, 1993, providing for the irreversible reprocessing of at least 500 tons of Russian weapons (highly enriched) uranium (equivalent to about 20 thousand nuclear warheads ) to low enriched uranium - fuel for US nuclear power plants.
                  1. +2
                    April 26 2020 17: 21
                    Quote: Winnie
                    write about the truth after the post that they sold all weapons-grade plutonium, but now it’s worth what it costs in the mines?

                    And what bothers you so much? True, not coinciding with the tales of Agitprom? ...

                    Your fantasies that DO NOT have anything to do with reality are for especially talented ones like you. Reread my post earlier, everything is already written there, what does the agreement have to do with it ???
                    And your earlier opuses about layouts, do you still need to clarify?
                    1. -2
                      April 26 2020 19: 36
                      It seemed to me that you are a more adequate and reasonable person. Sorry, I was wrong. Calling the "intergovernmental agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States of America" ​​my fantasies is over the edge! am
                      Either everything is on your side, or you naively believe in fairy tales annually told by one balabol in all the media, but you are completely indifferent to the fate of the country and our children. Nooo, I don’t want to communicate with such an ostrich. Good luck! hi
                      1. +1
                        April 26 2020 21: 00
                        Quote: Winnie
                        It seemed to me that you are a more adequate and reasonable person. Sorry, I was wrong. Calling the "intergovernmental agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States of America" ​​my fantasies is over the edge! am
                        Either everything is on your side, or you naively believe in fairy tales annually told by one balabol in all the media, but you are completely indifferent to the fate of the country and our children. Nooo, I don’t want to communicate with such an ostrich. Good luck! hi

                        A bit of history -

                        Quote: 321
                        Quote: Winnie
                        So, your conclusion about the fact that without nuclear weapons the country will become rich is NON-sure - such a country will simply cease to exist ... chtd. - conclusion - nuclear weapons are necessary! "
                        Too shy to ask. And why Russia still exists without weapons-grade plutonium sold to America under the EBN? (Gore-Chernomyrdin deal.)

                        At least because it has another nuclear weapon, besides this... hi

                        Quote: Winnie
                        Is it possible to clarify what "other nuclear weapons, besides this ..."? I suggest that the mass-dimensional models are not considered nuclear weapons.

                        Here are fragments of the history of your comments, in a slightly different topic, but the meaning of your posts from this does not change - it follows from them that according to your statements, Russia simply does not have nuclear weapons - Well, where does he come from, if - again according to your statements - “all plutonium was sold even at EBN ”instead of nuclear weapons we have“ mass-size models ”, and an“ intergovernmental agreement ”has been concluded...
                        The fact that the agreement did not in any way and does not affect the presence of nuclear weapons in the Russian Federation, and I’m not going to prove it to you at least to someone else - you’ll interrupt, no one has canceled the hint. hi

                        Quote: Winnie
                        Clear. You adhere to the all-Russian system of values, consisting in theft, corruption, genocide of the people, the collapse of the economy and the army. I don't need such a system of "values".

                        Your own fantasies, even if you are trying to ascribe them to me, yourself and comment, I have other values - you do not need to know the details of my life. bully hi
                      2. -4
                        April 26 2020 23: 00
                        I have VERY big doubts about your adequacy. When you are told that Russia dismantled 20000 nuclear warheads and sold at least 500 tons of Russian weapons-grade (highly enriched) uranium to America, then this is commonplace for you.

                        ... the agreement in no way affected and does not affect the presence of nuclear weapons in the Russian Federation, and I’m not going to prove it to you, even to anyone else - you’ll interrupt.

                        This is what you need to be ... to say that! These are all your arguments based on one principle: this cannot be, because it cannot be. You have no other arguments! Kindergarten level.
                        PS I am not going to deal with your education and break your far-fetched "value system" based on propaganda stereotypes. Maybe it’s better for the authorities. She really needs uneducated ignoramuses! They are easier to manage.
                      3. +1
                        April 27 2020 06: 12
                        Quote: Winnie
                        I have VERY big doubts about your adequacy. When you are told that Russia dismantled 20000 nuclear warheads and sold at least 500 tons of Russian weapons-grade (highly enriched) uranium to America, then this is in the order of things for you ...

                        First, figure out your adequacy - let's start with the fact that earlier in your opuses there were data about the "equivalent", but now you write here that "nuclear warheads have been dismantled", have you taken them apart? bully
                        And after the procedure for launching our nuclear weapons that you described, I don’t have any doubts about the degree of your mind - learn the materiel, hang noodles on your ears and distribute it in good faith, or rather, try ...

                        Quote: Winnie
                        ... These are all your arguments based on one principle: this cannot be, because it cannot be. You have no other arguments! ...

                        You shake your noodles from your ears, well, for starters - and an Internet trolley I, who spent more than one year in this system, will try to tell fairy tales here - about the layouts that supposedly only remained, well, everything else, about the same. am

                        Quote: Winnie
                        ... PS I'm not going to deal with your education anymore and break your contrived "value system" based on propaganda stereotypes ...

                        You first take care of your education, I have enough of mine - I have both academic degrees and academic ranks, you do not need to know the details.
                        Learn materiel. hi
                  2. 123
                    +3
                    April 26 2020 23: 38
                    First, the HEU-LEU agreement expired in 2013. Secondly, the agreement on plutonium disposition signed in its place has been suspended.

                    http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201610310009

                    Not terminated, namely suspended, for two reasons.
                    1. It is not solid to give up their word, decent states do not do so. Secondly, this is trolling, the conditions are obviously impracticable, the repeal of Magnitsky’s law and the list of sanctions. This is tantamount to Trump's proposal to go to the podium, apologize and ask for forgiveness, they say, was wrong.
                    Thirdly, the agreement is clearly not profitable, although it was signed by the not sober Boris Nikolayevich, but they were able to use it to good use. Time has passed, Russia is a leader in nuclear energy, but American producers are asking to limit uranium purchases in Russia, because they have kirdyk.

                    US uranium producers Ur-Energy and Energy Fuels filed a petition with the US Department of Commerce, asking them to limit uranium purchases abroad, including in Russia.
                    They complain that in 2017, US uranium production fell to historic lows. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at the US Department of Energy, the production of uranium oxide in the United States fell by 2017% in 38, to 1,8 million pounds (816 tons). This was due to a significant increase in purchases of this raw material from foreign companies that receive state support in their countries, companies say. According to them, now the share of uranium purchased in Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is about 40% of consumption in the United States, while local producers supply only 5% (the rest comes from other countries, including Canada).

                    https://www.rbc.ru/business/17/01/2018/5a5f54b79a794777aa6097cd

                    Purchasing from Canada is also Rosatom. laughing
                    So, Vinnie, go into the hole to the Rabbit, get a new training manual. Yes
                2. -3
                  April 26 2020 19: 43
                  Clear. You adhere to the all-Russian system of values, which consists of theft, corruption, genocide of the people, the collapse of the economy and the army. I don't need such a system of "values".
                  1. +1
                    April 26 2020 22: 30
                    ... a system of values, which consists of theft, corruption, genocide of the people, the collapse of the economy and the army. I don't need such a system of "values" ..

                    And what value system do you need? Please describe this system in your country?
                    1. 0
                      17 May 2020 21: 04
                      She is all-Russian.
                      1. The comment was deleted.
          2. -6
            April 26 2020 14: 45
            Did you lie about "your truthful sponsors" again? Have you learned from your "truthful" president? feel
          3. -1
            17 May 2020 21: 01
            As the Americans say, Russia is strong not with weapons, but with propaganda. She has nothing more!
        2. +1
          April 26 2020 12: 41
          Quote: Winnie
          ... From their assessment of the country's economy depends on how much the crisis will cost us ... If you compare with the zombie box, then yes.

          Those who know what kind of offices they are and how they evaluate have been sharing everything they have written for a long time, but how much depends on the specifics ...
          And the fact that you can’t watch TV at all, you probably do not know? bully
        3. +4
          April 26 2020 16: 41
          Well, well ... keep believing in various ... This is your religion.
    2. +7
      April 26 2020 15: 11
      Are these not the agencies that arranged a mortgage crisis in 2008 by assigning high ratings to weak borrowers?
      1. +4
        April 26 2020 16: 43
        They are the ones in which "not Pooh" believes like in religion. laughing
    3. +2
      April 26 2020 23: 08
      ..Potential sanctions initiatives against Russia, which are considered in the US Congress, for example, a ban on investment in the Russian public debt, are unlikely to bring the desired result to the United States, since the Russian economy is now in much better shape than during the initial sanctions in 2014 . This conclusion is drawn by the Institute of International Finance (IIF, based in Washington and represents the interests of leading world banks) in its report “The Case of US sanctions on Russia; RBC has it at its disposal.”
    4. 0
      April 26 2020 23: 11
      ... According to IIF, the Russian economy in recent years has built a strong system of protection against external shocks, the pillars of which are:

      floating ruble, acting as the main shock absorber;
      low dependence of Russian companies on Western loans;
      double surplus - both the current account and the federal budget;
      low level of public debt, including external debt;
      a large amount of international reserves of the Central Bank (the second indicator in the world after China in terms of the ratio of reserves to total external debt).
      If the United States imposes full-scale sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt, the consequences will be felt far beyond the borders of Russia or the United States, writes IIF. The fact is that Russian government bonds are quite important for the global financial system: they are included in all key indices of emerging markets, investors keep them for profit. In 2019, the federal loan (OFZ) ruble bond market attracted $ 16 billion from non-residents in dollars, and in total foreigners own 32,2% of all OFZs as of January 1, 2020 ($ 46,4 billion out of $ 143,8 billion). .

      RBC
      1. 0
        April 26 2020 23: 49
        Quote: Dear sofa expert.
        floating ruble

        Could you explain at whose expense this ruble "floats"? smile

        Quote: Dear sofa expert.
        in terms of the ratio of reserves to total external debt

        But how about the ratio of reserves to population?

        Quote: Dear sofa expert.
        investors hold them for profit

        That's it - at whose expense do investors pay returns?
        Usually, in such cases, the Russian Federation is compared with Saudi Arabia (GDP is comparable, as are the main sources of income).
        For 2019, CA did not find information on profitability, but for 2016:
        - yield on government securities of the Russian Federation with a variable coupon and repayment in November 2022 of the year - 10,48%.

        https://www.rbc.ru/finances/28/12/2016/5863a0da9a794721f6be988a

        - expected return on ten year old CA sovereign bonds - [b] 3,44%.

        https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/10/20/10260743.shtml
        1. 0
          2 May 2020 21: 02
          I gave a link to RBC (RosBusinessConsulting). I read, their opinion seemed interesting to me. If you consider yourself smarter than them, you can voice your indignation to them.
          1. 0
            2 May 2020 21: 55
            Quote: Dear sofa expert.
            If you consider yourself smarter than them

            Let's be honest - I didn’t get off topic and my questions hung in the air. And once you get personal, you have nothing to answer, or truthful answers somehow do not fit into your attitude. smile
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. +5
    April 26 2020 00: 13
    And the United States may collapse, there are enough of its problems, from economic to national and racial.
    1. +6
      April 26 2020 00: 29
      The authors here, for many, have a different task - to show how everything is bad again in the Russian Federation, and soon it will be even worse ...
      1. +3
        April 26 2020 16: 49
        321, I don’t know how the others do - we have normal. Our office is less than half, only private, and so is the state structure. And we still have the salary (we even began to pay a little more, because it’s a risk!) And the wife continues to go to Vodokanal (although I have to sit there wearing a mask). And so - we almost always sit at home - there is enough business chores and there is no time to have much fun. And the garden on the nose. Today, here, the pork sausages were fried at the stake, fortunately, their yard. Tomorrow, here again in the shift.
  13. +6
    April 26 2020 07: 30
    Expert - in terms of public debt, you are unfinished in the fifth world, or even the sixth !!! So sit already ...
  14. 0
    April 26 2020 10: 54
    What is the author’s name?
    1. The comment was deleted.
  15. +3
    April 26 2020 12: 51
    Friedman, you see, read HERBERT WALES ... the barracks still didn’t completely collapse in Kolyma ... so lovers of the collapse of Russia are waiting for bunks and replenishment of the country's gold reserves ... Friedman will be a hill there.
  16. 69
    +4
    April 26 2020 12: 59
    All Zionists suffer Russophobia, and Friedman is no exception.
  17. +6
    April 26 2020 15: 13
    Russia cannot be a "third world" country by definition, since it was once one of the first two worlds.
  18. +2
    April 26 2020 17: 17
    Into the furnace of such "expeditors"!
  19. +3
    April 26 2020 18: 20
    The main reason for the victory of the criminal-bourgeois counter-revolution in the Soviet Union is open betrayal, stupidity and, oddly enough, the naivete of the CPSU top in the person of M.S. Gorbachev, B.N. Yeltsin, A.N. Yakovleva, E.A. Shevardnadze, Kravchuk, Shushkevich and their minions. The bulk of the people did not believe in the possibility of this, and when it came to its senses, the train had already left.

  20. +4
    April 26 2020 18: 39
    Collapse and flatten to the size of the USSR)))
  21. +5
    April 26 2020 19: 27
    How do they dream ..... how do they want .. Centuries pass, but they do not change, the scum of the Anglo-Saxon.
  22. -2
    April 26 2020 23: 29
    Quote: Xuli (o) Tebenado
    Let's see how the Russian plutocracy will react to this ..

    Will not react in any way. For the simple reason that directly to plutocracy, all these rather serious problems do not bother at all.
    I think that the position and behavior of one recent prime minister is very indicative in this regard: they came up with a special post for him, where he receives the prime minister’s salary and has all the old nishtyaks, including the house for his beloved ducks. And since everything remained in place for him, the interests of Russia and the problems of its population are strictly parallel and violet.

    good good good Not in the eyebrow, but ... according to "Faberge"! lol