Warehouses overflow: another reduction in oil production awaits Russia


For the past two decades, it has been very fashionable in our country to talk about “getting off an oil needle”. The essence of the problem was that about a third of the federal budget revenues of Russia depend on the export of hydrocarbons abroad. In this case, of course, it was understood that this should happen due to diversification economicsincluding “increasing the depth of processing of natural resources”.


Apparently, the needle of the "oil and gas dropper" is finally forcibly pulled out of the body of our country. But what will we stay with?

The situation in the global economy is developing in the worst possible way, which we detail told earlier. The long-awaited OPEC + deal did not produce results: oil prices continued to fall. According to her, 9,7 million barrels per day should be removed from the market, of which 2,5 million are in Russia. Let's compare this with the quota of 0,5 million barrels that the Kremlin demanded in early March.

Alas, the "wrestling deflection" did not help. Of course, we again outplayed everyone, “forcing” to cut production, but oil quotes still do not grow. The main reason is the consequences of global quarantine caused by the coronavirus pandemic. There was a sharp drop in business activity, industrial production and demand for hydrocarbons, oil and gas. The figures for declining demand for "black gold" are impressive: according to various estimates, from 20 to 35 million barrels per day.

At the same time, the world market is simply overstocked, which is a direct result of the "oil war", which began so late. Oil storage facilities are full, tankers flooded to the eye stand at sea and wait for them to be finally unloaded. For their tenants, it flies a penny, but there is no choice. It got to the point that the United States intends to fill with raw materials all free railway tanks. The American company OEC Group suggests storing surpluses of bitumen, grease and other petroleum products in special bags and containers. Such scenarios of oil storage in Russian Railways wagons are also considered in Russia, since domestic storage capacities are inferior to competitors by several times.

In essence, this is a collapse. Already, Riyadh is ready to reconsider the deal to reduce the production of "black gold" in June upwards. This was directly stated by President Donald Trump:

The volume that OPEC + seeks to reduce is 20 million barrels per day, not the 10 million that is commonly reported.

20 million instead of 10 is strong, but the key question is, at the expense of whom it will happen. Even those 2,5 million barrels that the Kremlin forced to remove from the market, this is a difficult economic and political defeat. If Russia is forced to double this amount, this will be a real disaster for the federal budget. And where, sorry, to disappear? Wait until the American shales finally go broke? Oh well…

Recall that Washington, which we “outplayed,” did not join the OPEC + deal, that is, did not assume any quota obligations. Yes, the United States reduced production for purely economic reasons, but it will be entitled to increase it at any time without regard to any agreements. Now, in the format of the next revised OPEC + transaction, our country will be forced to further limit oil production and export, which means that the gap in the federal budget of Russia will become even more significant. Such is the reckoning for the “professional level” of the team that decided to “fight” on the “black gold” market with the rest of the world in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

The question is, are all these respected experts and analysts with decision makers incapable of calculating the consequences of the most important geopolitical steps, such as the start of a trade war with Saudi Arabia and the attempt to ruin the US shale industry at least a month and a half ahead, not to mention years and decades ?
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  1. Alien on this holiday of life April 20 2020 12: 04
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    There is no worse horror in the world than ... seized upon power!

    L. Filatov
  2. 123 Offline
    123 (123) April 20 2020 12: 13
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    The situation in the global economy is developing in the worst possible way. we spoke in detail earlier.

    Either people of royal blood or crazy people can speak of themselves in the plural. You, if not a secret, to which dynasty belong?

    The long-awaited OPEC + deal did not produce results: oil prices continued to fall.

    Let me curiosity, who said that as a result of the transaction should prices rise? As far as I remember, Russia was not happy with a decrease in market share.

    According to her, 9,7 million barrels per day should be removed from the market, of which 2,5 million are in Russia. Let's compare this with the quota of 0,5 million barrels that the Kremlin demanded in early March.

    Let us compare and how much those who “demanded” reduce production, then the picture will be more objective.

    Alas, the "wrestling deflection" did not help. Of course, we again outplayed everyone, “forcing” to reduce production, but oil quotes still do not grow.

    And who claims that we beat everyone? Do you understand only two extremes, is it all gone or are all bent? Wording "water truce" is not able to perceive in principle?

    At the same time, the world market is simply overstocked, which is a direct result of the "oil war", which began so late. Oil storage facilities are full, tankers flooded to the eye stand at sea and wait for them to be finally unloaded. For their tenants, it flies a penny, but there is no choice. It got to the point that the United States intends to fill with raw materials all free railway tanks. The American company OEC Group suggests storing surpluses of bitumen, grease and other petroleum products in special bags and containers. Such scenarios of oil storage in Russian Railways wagons are also considered in Russia, since domestic storage capacities are inferior to competitors by several times.

    Without specific figures, who has what amount of free storage, production and sales, the whole paragraph is just emotions, a panicist hysteria, no more.

    Even those 2,5 million barrels that the Kremlin forced to remove from the market, this is a serious economic and political defeat for our country. If Russia is forced to double this amount, this will be a real disaster for the federal budget.

    Who, excuse me, forced? You have an obsession, constantly dreaming of being forced to do something?

    Wait until the American shales finally go broke? Oh well…

    The idea of ​​a slowdown in the economy and a decrease in oil consumption does not fit yours, well, what are you eating?

    Recall that Washington, which we “outplayed”, did not join the OPEC + deal, that is, did not assume any quota obligations. Yes, the United States reduced production for purely economic reasons, but it will be entitled to increase it at any time without regard to any agreements.

    And we, of course, will not be able to increase production, because we have "obligations", an oral agreement with the Bedouins. Is this probably stronger than the Constitution? Are you familiar with the terms of the transaction? How long is it concluded? If the United States has the right to increase production at any time, why not do it right now?

    Now, in the format of the next revised OPEC + transaction, our country will be forced to further limit oil production and export, which means that the gap in the federal budget of Russia will become even more significant.

    You can help your country. Just cancel the coronavirus and its consequences, start the economy again to its fullest. I understand that the very possibility of a confrontation with your masters is unacceptable for you and causes bouts of hysteria, but it’s not possible, take it in hand, your hysterical convulsions are disgusting.

    This is the reckoning for the “professional level” of the team that decided to “fight” on the “black gold” market with the rest of the world in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Frank lies and juggling. Apparently, you just had to obediently do everything they say? By the way, how is the rest of the world? What about their desire to "fight" during a pandemic?

    The question is, are all these respected experts and analysts with decision makers incapable of calculating the consequences of the most important geopolitical steps, such as the start of a trade war with Saudi Arabia and the attempt to ruin the US shale industry at least a month and a half ahead, not to mention years and decades ?

    I doubt that you are capable of even broadly comprehending the logic of decision-making by these persons. no
    1. Yura Zhavoronkov (Arno Funke) April 20 2020 13: 22
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      Well, you and the epic reference! Some distortion and rudeness.
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) April 20 2020 14: 15
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        I looked at the profile picture ... I don’t digest the Nazis organically, all sorts of Bandera and stuff are just vile slime for me. negative
        1. Yura Zhavoronkov (Arno Funke) April 20 2020 18: 07
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          I somehow deep on ...... do not care about your digestion.
          1. 123 Offline
            123 (123) April 20 2020 19: 01
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            I kicked such avatars as a child, and shot them from a slingshot. I will gladly repeat the experience at a new level yes
            Resentment to abomination? No no Disgust.
      2. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 08: 15
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        And this bot is not capable of anything else.
    2. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) April 20 2020 14: 03
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      I read your comment with great pleasure. Everything is absolutely true!
      Yours faithfully, hi
  3. Yura Zhavoronkov (Arno Funke) April 20 2020 13: 20
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    Americans are not allowed to join the OPEC agreement by legislation banning cartel transactions. And OPEC is a classic cartel, i.e. organization of conspiracy against competition in the market.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 20 2020 14: 16
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      So they got the market in its purest form, now they are enjoying the result. yes
  4. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 20 2020 13: 20
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    Quote: 123
    I doubt that you are capable of even broadly comprehending the logic of decision-making by these persons.

    Oh, where do I go. laughing
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) April 20 2020 13: 39
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      Quote: Marzhetsky
      Oh yes where am i

      Yeah, you have nowhere else to go.
    2. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 20 2020 14: 17
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      Glad I realized. yes You are on the right track. good
  5. vindigo Offline
    vindigo (Andrei) April 20 2020 13: 21
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    Maybe gasoline will become cheaper? If you do not buy abroad, you can sell a larger volume in the domestic market at a lower price.
  6. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 20 2020 13: 21
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    Quote: 123
    You can help your country. Just cancel the coronavirus and its consequences, start the economy again to its fullest. I understand that the very possibility of a confrontation with your masters is unacceptable for you and causes bouts of hysteria, but it’s not possible, take it in hand, your hysterical convulsions are disgusting.

    Thank God, I have no owners, unlike you. wink
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 20 2020 14: 18
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      Thank God, I have no owners, unlike you.

      Do you call them differently?
      1. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 08: 13
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        It is very significant that you live in the category of "owners", which says a lot about you. You do not even admit that someone can do something without your training manual and appropriate payment.
        For people like you, it’s very easy to label people with different views as “Ukrainian,” “agent of the State Department,” “agent of Mossad,” a liberal, etc., there’s simply not enough brain for more.
        1. 123 Offline
          123 (123) April 21 2020 12: 04
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          It is very significant that you live in the category of "owners", which says a lot about you. You do not even admit that someone can do something without your training manual and appropriate payment.

          How do you know in which category I live? My "training manual" is simple. We look at the facts and draw conclusions.
          Yours, screaming "everything is lost", you are all ..... for any reason and without, and it does not matter what really happens. You continue to do this now. yes Before considering those very arguments, they did not come down. no

          For people like you, it’s very easy to label people with different views as “Ukrainian,” “State Department agent,” “Mossad agent,” liberal, etc., there’s simply not enough brain for more.

          You just got a label on me. yes I wonder how much intelligence you needed for this? what And what else are you capable of?
          As for these labels, they also hung on me, but it doesn’t matter. More interesting is another. Label "Ukrainian"? This is curious. What's wrong with being a Ukrainian? Apparently, you mean "pots" and "Bandera", you delicately call them? This is not the same thing at all.
          If a person begins to explain how backward we are and we urgently need to repeat the “progressive” experience of “non-stop”, then I understand who it is, I’m talking directly about it. If an avatar appears on the site in a Wehrmacht helmet and begins to talk about “cotton wool”, I have no doubt who is in front of me and I'm not shy to say what I think about this. In general, in vain you are talking about Ukrainians, you should not do this with respect to the whole people. Especially for you, the opinion of a Ukrainian. hi Enjoy. smile

  7. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 20 2020 13: 23
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    Quote: 123
    Either people of royal blood or crazy people can speak of themselves in the plural. You, if not a secret, to which dynasty belong?

    For your information, journalists of the publication from his team may also say so. Well, yes, you, the all-knowing expert, are not aware. laughing You can only pass on personality when there are no arguments.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 20 2020 14: 22
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      For your information, journalists of the publication from his team may also say so. Well, yes, you, the all-knowing expert, are not aware

      I doubt that the team delegated to you the authority to speak on its own behalf and their opinion coincides with yours. no I recommend to be careful with expressions, otherwise it’s not an hour, they will arrange a dark one. angry

      You can only switch to a personality when there are no arguments

      If you were able to notice anything other than your personality, you probably would have noticed that the comment also contains the same arguments. yes But you are not interested in them. request
    2. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 20 2020 16: 04
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      By the way, I can please you with news, I’m sure you will like it. yes

    3. Rum rum Offline
      Rum rum (Rum rum) April 20 2020 22: 21
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      Dad Marzhecki.
      Speak better on your own behalf. So it will be more correct.
      My regards. hi
  8. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker April 20 2020 13: 57
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    Today, the news said that 79 tourists flew from Thailand to Kemerovo. 13 were placed in isolation, and 66 were sent to self-isolation. Like they were flying in another plane! What miscalculations are you talking about? No words, one mate? Who controls us !! ????
  9. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) April 20 2020 14: 00
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    The situation in the global economy is developing in the worst possible way, which we described in detail earlier. The long-awaited OPEC + deal did not produce results: oil prices continued to fall. According to her, 9,7 million barrels per day should be removed from the market, of which 2,5 million are in Russia.

    You forgot that 5 million barrels should be cut by the United States and its ilk, not included in OPEC +. And who forced them to take this step? Huh?

    Even those 2,5 million barrels that the Kremlin forced to remove from the market, this is a serious economic and political defeat for our country.

    And who forced to reduce US production by 3 million barrels? And who inflicted this defeat on the USA? Forgot to write?

    ... the world market is simply overstocked, which is a direct result of the "oil war", which began so late.

    Just trouble with you. You cannot build causal relationships. Pull up the logic.
    The global market is overstocked due to a drop in demand for petroleum products associated with coronavirus infection. The whole world is on self-isolation, no one goes anywhere. Only in Russia, the demand for motor fuel fell by half. And we are far from the most infected country. The oil war unleashed by the Saudis was a consequence of the overstocking of oil markets for oil products, and not vice versa.

    This is the reckoning for the “professional level” of the team that decided to “fight” on the “black gold” market with the rest of the world in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Your "professional level" is clearly lower, even lower than the plinth.
  10. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 20 2020 18: 07
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    We are waiting for the end of May ... they promise a lot of interesting things ... but not for the Russian Federation, of course.
  11. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 20 2020 18: 39
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    The fact that the OPEC + deal does not give anything was known initially. About 30 million barrels must be removed. But this is not accurate.
    The fact that Russia did not agree to the deal in early March was just the right decision. The Saudis are crazy. Russia could not agree to a decrease in production in April. At the moment, WTI oil - $ 10,5 - a drop of 42%. Brent Oil - $ 26,3 - 6% drop. And who is losing more?
    There is only one solution at the moment - closing trades in futures, bringing supply and demand into line. And maybe (I say maybe) then it turns out that nothing will have to be cut.
    Russia has nothing to reduce. Out of 10 million barrels of production, only 5 million were exported. 5 million is needed for the domestic market. So a new deal can only be subject to conditions - a reduction in production by countries outside OPEC + and the abandonment of futures transactions.



    1. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 20 2020 21: 51
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      You look at the problem as a seller (RF), everything is much wider ...
      1. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 21 2020 01: 11
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        It seemed so to you. I look at the problem as the false initial premises of the entire modern economic model. Air trading is speculation, but not economics. Or scam.
        How can we explain the fall in oil prices by almost 50% in one particular country? Despite the fact that in the rest of the world oil fell by only 6%. Or are oil futures falling and gas futures (the same May month) rising?
  12. Rum rum Offline
    Rum rum (Rum rum) April 20 2020 22: 03
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    Pan Marzhecki.
    How do you comment on this news:

    The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US oil futures for May fell to $ 0, trading data from April 20 show.
    According to 20:56 (Moscow time), the cost of the May WTI futures collapsed by almost 100% - up to $ 0,01 per barrel.
    Literally 10 minutes later, on the New York Stock Exchange for the first time in the history of trading, the May contracts of WTI crude oil went into a negative value - minus $ 6 per barrel.
    Now, to deliver oil, the seller will pay extra to the buyer.

    Do you think they will last long?
    My regards. hi
    Yes, I forgot - oil shale, that’s almost 10 million barrels per day. A "Brent" while 25,85 bak./boch.
    True, interesting news?
    1. Digital error Offline
      Digital error (Eugene) April 20 2020 23: 21
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      Do not panic.
      - Why the cost of futures does not affect the real value of oil?
      - Because it’s just a bet, which is how much oil can cost tomorrow. Moreover, robots play a big role in trading. The system decided that the futures began to get cheaper, so we had to sell everything, so the price fell off. The degree of influence of these trades on the real value of oil is small: someone says about 10%, someone believes that it is even less.

      https://www.mk.ru/economics/2020/04/20/ekspert-obyasnil-chto-znachit-dlya-rossii-katastroficheskoe-padenie-cen-na-neft.html
      hi
      1. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 21 2020 01: 20
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        From your link:

        Futures are a promise of future delivery.

        And the reality is this:

        Settlement (non-deliverable) futures assumes that only cash settlements are made between participants in the amount of the difference between the contract price and the actual price of the asset at the date the contract is executed without physical delivery of the underlying asset.

        Russian courts consider settlement futures as a form of "gaming transactions" and deny claims arising from their failure to comply

        At the same time, real oil is being traded based on futures transactions.
      2. Rum rum Offline
        Rum rum (Rum rum) April 21 2020 02: 51
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        What are you talking about, what a panic, "Brent" is so far 25,85 tank / barrel.
        Here, pan Marzhecki talks about the inflexibility of shale oil.
        hi
        1. Marzhecki Offline
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 08: 09
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          Change the training manual already.
          1. The comment was deleted.
          2. Rum rum Offline
            Rum rum (Rum rum) April 21 2020 19: 54
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            But do not be rude.
            When clear and intelligible arguments, such as you, end, are rude.
          3. Accidentally Offline
            Accidentally April 23 2020 09: 04
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            Serge - the troll does not need reassurance. That's when the rooster pecks, maybe a little wiser. I’m looking at sites. worldcrisis.ru - men write very honestly and objectively there ... and it’s never impossible to convince a troll living like a dragonfly jumping in life. .. Plus you my.
  13. Rum rum Offline
    Rum rum (Rum rum) April 20 2020 22: 15
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    Pan Marzhecki. And comment on this.

    China, taking advantage of the collapse in prices, is buying oil for its strategic reserve, Bloomberg reports. According to recently published statistics, despite the crisis and the fight against coronavirus, in the first quarter of this year, China increased oil imports by 5% in annual terms.
    At the end of March, China acquired a record volume of Russian oil amid falling European demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and low quotes on the black gold market. China bought 1,6 million tons against 1,2 million tons delivered to China in January. Moreover, deliveries are scheduled for the whole of April.
  14. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 08: 11
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    Quote: Nick
    Your "professional level" is clearly lower, even lower than the plinth.

    Mr. Kremlebot, everything has been clear with you for a long time.
  15. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 08: 17
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    Quote: Nick
    You forgot that 5 million barrels should be cut by the United States and its ilk, not included in OPEC +. And who forced them to take this step? Huh?

    Invisible hand of the market. Damn how funny you are. good
  16. The comment was deleted.
  17. shadow Offline
    shadow April 21 2020 20: 26
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    “The available oil storage facilities are almost completely sold out at our terminals,” said Gerard Polides, CFO of Royal Vopak NV in Rotterdam, in an interview.
    According to him, for Vopak, the available capacities around the world, which are not currently in use, have been almost completely exhausted, and a similar situation is observed around the world.
    The company seeks to complete maintenance as quickly as possible in order to free up more capacity.

    That's just what he has to do with Russia, it is not clear. Maybe someone will explain?
  18. master3 Offline
    master3 (Vitali) April 22 2020 12: 20
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    about a third of the federal budget revenues of Russia depend on export abroad of hydrocarbons.

    - This is a moot point, I think, much more.