Shale oil production in the US is facing serious destabilization

Currently, the demand for oil in the world is in free fall. This is due to the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19 on the planet and is exacerbated by the inability of Moscow and Riyadh to agree to reduce the production of raw materials. Now problems are expected from the “shale” of the United States and LNG exporters. This was announced on March 26, 2020 to the “Atlantic Council” by the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol.

For clarity, the Atlantic Council, headquartered in Washington, is an American, non-governmental, analytical center with a specific focus. Moreover, it is so specific that in July 2019 this organization was recognized as undesirable in Russia and entered the corresponding registry of the Ministry of Justice. According to the conclusions of the Prosecutor General, this structure threatens the foundations of the constitutional system and security of Russia.

According to Birol, many experts predict a surplus of oil in the world market. In this case, the effects of oversaturation will be felt for many years to come, and the recovery in demand will not be quick.

Today, 3 billion people in the world are isolated. As a result, global oil demand is in free fall, and we can see a drop in demand to as much as 20 million barrels per day

- explained the head of the IEA.

Birol believes that in the second quarter of 2020, there may be a significant decrease in shale oil production in the United States. The head of the IEA emphasized that the US oil industry is waiting for "enormous suffering." But the industry will recover, after the restoration of oil prices in the world market.

With these prices, we will see a significant decline in oil shale production in the United States, there is no doubt

- clarified Birol.

Birol added that gas demand in Europe and Asia was also "severely affected." So serious problems await LNG exporters from Australia, Algeria, Qatar and the USA.

I expect that LNG in the US will also be affected. We can see many closures all over the world.

- said Birol.

After that, the head of the IEA advised taking measures to improve energy efficiency as part of incentive programs. economics. In addition, he drew attention to the fact that in connection with the current situation in the world, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is expected by the autumn of 2020. Birol promised that in two weeks he would publish more specific forecasts for oil demand.
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  1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
    Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 27 March 2020 15: 37
    This should concern Russia and the oil monarchies most of all. Even if all of the US shales are closed, it will not be a tragedy for the US budget. It is not built on oil and gas. But for Russia, the collapse of oil and gas revenues is a disaster.
    1. Ivan Ivanov_18 Offline Ivan Ivanov_18
      Ivan Ivanov_18 (Troll trolls) 27 March 2020 17: 27
      for Russia, the collapse of oil and gas revenues

      Article about the collapse of the shale, not?
      1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 28 March 2020 01: 05
        Yes, that's why it's funny.
        1. Ivan Ivanov_18 Offline Ivan Ivanov_18
          Ivan Ivanov_18 (Troll trolls) 28 March 2020 07: 25
          Strange, but not all Jews are smart.
          1. mor7d Offline mor7d
            mor7d (mor7d) 29 March 2020 12: 39
            It is true that all Jews are smart, but it is not true that all smarts are Jews.
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 27 March 2020 16: 53
    A strange idea of ​​the budget and the disaster. Any (!) Modern state rests not only on one source of replenishment of the budget. So Russia has something to take care of, but this is not a disaster. It will be difficult, but solvable.
    We turn to the shales of America. For them, before the end of the year, this is also not a disaster. It has been written a hundred times that their activities are hedged. That is, it is insured against collapse. The problems will not be with shale companies, but with banks that insured them. What the collapse of only one bank of the "Lemon Brothers" led to - everyone remembers. The problem is bank bankruptcy and the collapse of the entire (ALL) financial structure. That's where the dog rummaged. There is no longer up to the budget. The budget is nonsense. Well, a trifle like hundreds of thousands of unemployed only in Texas - and goodbye to the White House for Trump. What will happen next is written with a pitchfork on the water.
    For some reason, the Minister of Finance (important) runs around the world and asks (or demands) to reduce production. Doesn’t he know that these are the problems of Russia?
    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 28 March 2020 01: 04
      Everyone runs and takes care of their pocket. Including Russia. Comparison with Lemon Brothers is completely incorrect. There was something completely different - a massive fraud. In the case of shale producers, as already mentioned, this will be nothing more than a nuisance for the budget and the banking system, and certainly not a collapse of the banking structure. And Texas is not only based on oil. And all the horrors that await the United States in connection with the collapse of the oil and gas price are nothing more than the sweet dreams of "patriots". I remember how 8 years ago, during the second election of Obama, when the circus with the "branch" of Texas began, Russian "analysts" got excited. In all seriousness they broadcast how the United States would soon disintegrate, told how the new countries would be called, etc. :))) And Russia, of course, rests on more than one source of the budget, but it is the main one, and based on this it is planned. With the current trend, it will face massive sequestration in all areas, and the NWF will go through very quickly. The people are already in tension about the impudent "zeroing", and then there is an inevitable powerful blow to the pocket. That is why I wrote about the impending catastrophe.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 28 March 2020 09: 11
        You wrote that this should primarily concern Russia and the oil monarchies. This should bother everyone. Including the USA. I wrote that for some reason this bothers the US Treasury Secretary, the Texas authorities. By the way, in Texas. I was there on business. Flags hung USA and Texas. Often I heard that not Texas joined the States, but the States joined Texas. There have always been strong trends in independence. And Houston was then called the "dead city."
        On a budget. Russia's budget is laid out in rubles, not dollars. The price of oil there is inherent in 2790 rubles. Divide by the dollar and get a deficit-free budget. And Russia can print as many rubles as the States print dollars. But this is in theory. In practice, they cannot be printed in large quantities because of the convertibility of the ruble. The printed money will go to the exchange, it will be converted into dollars and exported abroad. Therefore, the decision on a 15% tax on the export of foreign currency is not even half measures, but visibility. We need a complete ban on foreign exchange operations on the exchange, a refusal to convert. You need to disconnect from the crazy printing press in the USA. And Russia will be completely happy and financially independent.
        So. The budget of Russia is made up in rubles and at a floating rate is deficit-free. Inflation can rise and fall in the purchasing power of the population. But she is falling in the States. So this is a problem for everyone. And primarily the States.
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 28 March 2020 09: 49
          Addition to the budget. The pessimist claims the bottle is half empty. The optimist claims that the same bottle is half full.

          The rate is 80 rubles per dollar. Nightmare. We must pay 80 rubles per dollar. To whom to give? Central Bank. That is, to the budget of the Russian Federation. But for offshore, this is not just a nightmare, but a nightmare-nightmare-nightmare. It is necessary to give 80 rubles plus 15% (that is, another 12 rubles). Total for fans to warm their hands (speculators) should be given to the budget of the Russian Federation 92 rubles.

          In fact, there are already two courses in Russia. Domestic at 80 rubles and external at 92 rubles. And these 92 rubles go exactly to replenish the budget. We multiply $ 25 per barrel by 92. We get 2300 rubles per barrel. Not enough. The interest on the withdrawal of capital should be at least 30%. Better 50%.
  3. mor7d Offline mor7d
    mor7d (mor7d) 29 March 2020 12: 36
    Now the Saudis and the Americans will agree on the division of the market and that’s all, no one else will go there, the obstinate Americans will be crushed by sanctions.