Khramchikhin: In case of conflict with Turkey, Russian tanks will go through Georgia

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The instability of relations with neighboring Turkey, which, being a member of NATO, signs agreements with Russia with one hand and violates them with the other, may in the future develop into a conflict between the countries.

Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin in his article on the pages "Military Industrial Courier" considered a possible scenario in case the misunderstanding in relations between Moscow and Ankara reaches the stage of military conflict.



Ankara could provoke a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, directly supporting the aggressive actions of Baku. In this case, Russia will have to provide assistance to Armenia, at least because the country is a member of the CSTO.

According to the author, the threat posed by Turkish ground forces to the 102nd Russian base located in the border Armenian Gyumri (marked on the map) will force the Russian army to move to the rescue through the territory of Georgia, because there simply is no other route.


In this case, the territory of this small Caucasian republic will become the battlefield of two armies:

If the Russian army goes ahead through Georgia, large-scale ground battles may unfold in the territory of this country.


Thus, Georgia, like many other countries of the Caucasus and Transcaucasia, can be drawn into a conflict, in addition to its will, in which, not having a direct relationship to it, it will suffer most of all.

In conclusion, the author concludes that a full-fledged armed conflict between Russia and Turkey will be equally expensive for all its participants, which is a strong deterrent, but is not a guarantee from its inception.
47 comments
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  1. 0
    22 March 2020 17: 47
    And what not by the sea?
    1. +3
      22 March 2020 18: 05
      The power reserve under water probably does not allow. tongue
      It is not clear what will keep Turkish tanks from excursion in Georgia?
      In which part of Georgia are Russians more sympathetic, and in which part of the Turks, and where can Turkish tankers meet with Azerbaijani allies.
  2. 0
    22 March 2020 18: 31
    Oh!!! Just some kind of genius.
    If you look at the map, then the tanks can go not only in Georgia, but also in Armenia and Azerbaijan ...

    Especially if the tanks go from different directions ...
    1. +1
      23 March 2020 11: 37
      Especially if the tanks go from different directions ...

      Tanks are not afraid of dirt. laughing There, across the ridges, there are not so many of these same "sides". And the "free press" together with Khramchikhin, in this case, is free from common sense. Yes
    2. -1
      23 March 2020 12: 35
      Are you sure that Armenia and Azerbaijan will miss?
      1. +1
        24 March 2020 09: 34
        And what are their options ?! To fight with Russia on the side of Turkey ?! Armenia today considers Ararat and neighboring territories to be part of Armenia occupied by Turkey, so for the sake of such a thing, the Armenians will go to war ... Yes, it’s not profitable for Azerbaijan to quarrel with Russia, many goods are sold in Russia, and all military equipment is bought in Russia conflict with the Russian Federation, will remain without spare parts and ammunition.
        1. -2
          24 March 2020 10: 15
          Hehe ... it’s immediately obvious that you are not knowledgeable in these matters. Do not embarrass yourself. And yet, there is no Ararat, this area of ​​Agra is called. But Russia, even Russia, was created for the Armenians who drove there Griboedov on the lands of Azerbaijan.
          1. +1
            24 March 2020 10: 42
            Well do not, don’t run into compliments. I don’t want to offend the mods, they are good guys ... I’m an officer of the Russian Federation, if anything, two higher educations, so I don’t need to push my Wishlist and my opinion on things ... I know the price of your Natsik ... My family classmate - Russian refugees from Baku ...
            1. -3
              April 14 2020 08: 52
              Not only are you an officer here, and not only you here with two diplomas. Don't think of your opponents as dummies. This is your wishlist along the entire perimeter of the borders and far abroad. And at the expense of Russian refugees from Baku, it’s generally funny. The union collapsed, many, having sold their property, left for their historical homeland. The word "refugee" is generally inapplicable to the Russians who left Azerbaijan. They live here and now, and live many times better than in Russia. Maybe put in a word for a million Azerbaijani refugees?
              1. +3
                April 14 2020 10: 23
                You drive these fables to someone else, but as Russian refugees allegedly sold their property in the Russophobia-affected independent republics of the former Soviet of Deputies, I know well ... 4 basmachs with machine guns come to the house, throw money on the table, not more than 25% of the market value of the property and They say that tomorrow you shouldn’t be here and it’s useless to call the police, because the bandits are sheltering the authorities ... And this is even in the best case ... I have a classmate (family of 5 people) from a family of Russian refugees from Baku and he is not alone ... I sincerely wish that in the Russian Federation they treated you like you did with ours, so that you understand what you have done, in your own skin !!!
                1. -4
                  April 17 2020 11: 54
                  Firstly, it’s you who fables people here! Secondly, it’s not about the Soviets, but specifically about Azerbaijan, and the tale that you are telling here is designed for shortsighted people. Thirdly, I wrote above, many Russians moved after the collapse of the Union to their historical Motherland, and many remained where they lived and were related earlier (by the way, today the number of Russians stuck only in India exceeds that very amount, Hindu police beat them relentlessly, so get them out and then complain). Fourth, the skin is your shell, take into account and try to communicate humanly. And as to how the Russian Federation treats ours, it's not for you to decide, although those slippery as you are doing their best to harm us.
                  1. +1
                    April 17 2020 16: 15
                    And you come to the Russian Federation, I will introduce you to Russian refugees from Baku, just get good insurance, because they have not forgotten anything and will certainly thank you for your (hospitality) to the fullest ... Here, you see, Russia, and they are here title nation, not you ...
                    1. -2
                      April 17 2020 16: 53
                      Well, he showed his true gut)) Hitler also talked a lot about the titular nation. I repeat for those who are especially stubborn, show at least one official document proving or pointing to Russian pogroms or persecutions in Azerbaijan in the entire history of the Russians on our land! And in Russia I happen to be soooooooo often, and on business I go, and to friends, by the way, to the former Baku People. My insurance is myself. If you want, I’ll notify you the next time you visit Russia. Where will it be more convenient to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Voronezh, Belgorod or Barnaul?
                      1. +2
                        April 17 2020 22: 07
                        What were you waiting for ?! Did you think that after you have treated ours at home, they will give you free coupons for enhanced nutrition in the Russian Federation ?! Something when you were in your place, you did not compare yourself with Hitler ... What you deserve, you will get it! Debt good turn deserves another! For heaven’s sake, I don’t advise them ... If I’ve been to Voronezh, I’ve probably heard of a zelenrest and bridges across the reservoir ... there are many uninvited guests who found their last refuge ... By the way, the last Russian from the former Russophobia-sick republic sovdepii came to my city a year ago ... it seems from Kyrgyzstan ... But in Baku you started slaughtering Armenians, and you ended up as Russians ... All countries of the former Union that separated from Russia built their independence on Russophobia, and don’t try to assert the opposite is funny !!! In the same Ukraine, Russians began to be killed on ethnic grounds long before 2014 ... It was in the 90s, in Odessa, on the basis of missile boats, the lion's share of the personnel of which refused to swear allegiance to Bandera ... There were robberies, beatings, several killed and wounded from automatic weapons. The authorities of Independence pretended that there was nothing of this ... Well, we remember and know what it was and how it was ...
                      2. -3
                        April 20 2020 08: 10
                        Russophobia you earned yourself thanks to people like you. So a dialogue with you is useless. About Voronezh reservoirs and do not stutter, in Voronezh there are such Russian guys that they will punish you for your tongue momentarily. And try not to harness for the Armenians, otherwise you’ll end badly. The first blood was released by the Armenians, and for this they still have to pay. And with you everything is clear, not adequate at all. The voice above is the caravan further. So go ahead. And you didn’t provide anything about the evidence about the Russian massacre. Balabol you!
                      3. +2
                        April 20 2020 21: 09
                        I also think that there’s nothing to talk to you about, it’s better to close the borders from patients with Russophobia and send you from Russia to your homeland so that you do not eat Russian bread and harm the Russian Federation from the inside! And your country, if it jerks on the Russian Federation, will not last much longer than Georgia ... and just spoiling relations with the Russian Federation, it will completely lose spare parts from the Russian Federation ... which will quickly turn all your military equipment into rubbish ... Bandera posters five cripples, they were dispersed with kicks before the arrival of the police ... Russophobia, we ourselves deserve ?! What is this ?! The fact that you, the savages, distributed plants and schools to build, taught you to use toilet paper instead of stones, you built cities with water supply and steam heating ... You will have to pay for everything and soon you will regret your Russophobic tricks and pogroms ... More we will not save you from the Turks, nor from anyone else, and in Russia you will always be uninvited strangers ...
  3. -9
    22 March 2020 19: 07
    Khramchikhin: In case of conflict with Turkey, Russian tanks will go through Georgia

    - Yes, in any way now Russian tanks will not pass overland ... to Turkey ...
    - If Russia seeks to "petition" for the early admission of Georgia to NATO, then it is worth trying to drive Russian tanks into Georgia ... - One could try through Armenia, but "Bakhtiarov's" (pro-Turkish) Azerbaijan will not let ... - Through Iran. ..- it will not work either ... - This is the end of all "skating" ... - And the Americans and Turks with their serious aviation can seriously disrupt this business ... - And the Americans can quickly transfer helicopter aviation, their "Apaches" (Apaches) from any nearby NATO bases; will establish uninterrupted satellite tracking, organize a constant vigil of their drones ... - In short ... - this is an empty occupation ...
    1. +1
      22 March 2020 20: 49
      Madame, you have correctly described everything, but there is one thing that is much more important - motor resources. Tanks must be delivered to the battlefield with minimal mileage - this is the ABC.
      1. -8
        22 March 2020 22: 00
        - Who told you that tanks are delivered "on dry" only under their own power ??? - There are tractors with platforms ... - loaded and transported ...
        - Here I got 3 minuses ... without any arguments ... - Here are the malicious "site policemen" ... - They don't understand anything, but they are very angry ... - just to harm ...
        - It's like ...- at least one glove .., but I’ll steal ... -Hahah ...
        1. 0
          22 March 2020 22: 10
          Quote: gorenina91
          There are tractors with platforms ... - loaded and driven ...

          Tanks on platforms are excellent targets for the enemy. In this case, not one will reach the battlefield. The Turks recently held a master class in Idlib on the use of drones to destroy armored vehicles and the results are very impressive.
        2. -1
          22 March 2020 22: 23
          Quote: gorenina91
          -And who told you that tanks "on dry land" are delivered only under their own power ???

          At first, I also thought that he was being prompted. No, it's him on his own. Now I understand how he was going to crush Muslim leaders. Tanks.
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    4. +2
      24 March 2020 09: 37
      The Americans will not climb, if only because the military doctrine of the Russian Federation clearly says -

      In the event that several countries are fighting against the Russian Federation, the Russian Federation uses nuclear weapons ...

      Turkey’s aviation is not as serious as it seems to you, and there isn’t so much of it ... Something the descendants of the Janissaries on the Su-35 don’t risk twitching, they prefer to leave ...
  4. -6
    22 March 2020 20: 09
    In Putin he brought himself a friend! Experts broke loose. Looks like there will still be a WAR ?!
  5. 0
    22 March 2020 20: 12
    Mr. Khramchishin in his ideas about the planning of military operations clearly remained in the times of WW-II. lol
  6. -1
    22 March 2020 20: 27
    SW expert. To create a maidan in Baku, having blocked the export of fruits and vegetables from Azerbaijan, and the days of lovers of conflict will be numbered ...
    1. +1
      22 March 2020 21: 53
      Dear Robert (I am tormented by vague doubts) ....
      Who will create the Maidan in Baku? Moscow? To change the loyal I. Aliyev to a clearly pro-Turkish popular front?
      Or the West? I think that at the moment the Maidan in Baku is as likely as the arrival of the Martians.
    2. -1
      23 March 2020 12: 40
      Oh ... Really ?! Strategist, however. laughing
  7. +4
    22 March 2020 21: 50
    In wartime, provocateurs were shot. This applies to Khramchikhin in full. What is the military conflict between Russia and Turkey? Erdogan’s recent trip to Moscow is not impressive?
    I do not comment on the rest of the scriptures for their complete inadequacy.
    1. +1
      22 March 2020 23: 31
      I think, dear Bakht, since it is not clear now, whether it is military time, or not, then we need to choose an intermediate option. Shoot Khramchikhin, but as in that joke, lead him through the Maputo first. To stretch the pleasure for Alexander Anatolyevich. As performers of this procedure, you can involve undemanding militias from Africa (from any side), promising a generous financial reward for such a close acquaintance with the person of A. Khramchikhin.
      1. 0
        23 March 2020 00: 56
        On the whole, I treated his writings well. But in this case, there is such a set of absurdities and direct errors that you do not know what to say.
        The mistake of many lies in the fact that for some reason people believe that the state will carry chestnuts out of the fire for someone. Turkey is a fairly large and independent state. Erdogan solves his problems. If they coincide with the Russian, then he will be an ally. If not, then he will bend his line. And if their interests do not overlap, then there will be no war.
        What is the main task of Turkey? Oddly enough - to maintain its integrity. This is a Kurdish issue. And therefore, Turkey will ALWAYS be against the creation of Kurdistan. In this, Russia will support Turkey. What is Erdogan’s personal task? Become a leader in the Middle East. This is utopia. Turkey, by definition, cannot become a locomotive. But for this Erdogan climbed into Syria. Here his personal ambitions harm Turkey and go against the interests of Russia. Therefore, I always said that it’s high time to knit Erdogan with a Manila cable and send him to a mental hospital. It is dangerous for the state of Turkey. And he is against the ideas of Ataturk.

        As for Azerbaijan, Turkey is a strategic ally for us. But Turkey cannot order Baku. Azerbaijan must solve its problems. The minimum program is to return the 6 occupied regions, the maximum program is to return Nagorno-Karabakh to its jurisdiction. All this will be achieved without war. Minor skirmishes and even fighting for 3-4 days are possible. But there will be no full-scale war.
        1. +2
          23 March 2020 01: 07
          As for Gyumri, it has no practical significance. This is the closest Russian base to Syria. Has anyone heard that this base was involved in at least some operation? She has no logistic ties. In order for this base to fully exist, it needs a connection with the metropolis. Full communication can be made only through Azerbaijan. But for this you need to unlock the railway. Until recently, the BTA of Russia supplied it through the airspace of Azerbaijan. Over the past two years, Azerbaijan has closed its airspace.
          The connection is simple. If Armenia ceases occupation of 6 regions of Azerbaijan, the road will be unblocked. That is why Moscow is now pushing on Armenia. But there is a nuance. Any government of Armenia that takes such a step will be demolished in one day. Dead end. Armenia has become a hostage to its anti-Azerbaijani hysteria. It is completely excluded from the economic life of the South Caucasus and is losing its population. I wish the Armenians a more sober view of reality. Azerbaijan has never been an enemy of Armenia. 300 thousand Armenians lived perfectly in Baku. We were made enemies by the nationalists.
          Today it is a dead end. But a dead end does not mean war. Whatever Khramchikhin writes about this.
          And the constant mistake of many. Armenia is a member of the CSTO. But not Nagorno-Karabakh. When fighting in Karabakh, the CSTO will not intervene. Which was demonstrated in April 2016.
          1. +1
            23 March 2020 08: 50
            And the constant mistake of many. Armenia is a member of the CSTO.

            What does not stop her from having on her territory an American military biolaboratory! Good ally. Maybe, for starters, they are eliminating this biological mine near the Caucasus and Russia?
            1. -1
              23 March 2020 12: 47
              Have you forgotten about the American diplomatic corps with numbers from the base of the 102nd base?)
  8. +4
    23 March 2020 06: 37
    Fantasies and plagiarism "a la Suwalki corridor". The land component is relevant only for the territory of the SAR, the rest is in the Black Sea. Tank breakthroughs to Turkey are, to put it mildly, fantasy.
  9. +2
    23 March 2020 08: 46
    The feeling is that the author of the story picked up the coronavirus. A pile of absurdities. Like, after us at least a flood.
  10. -5
    23 March 2020 13: 59
    - In general, when you read "Bakhtiyar's you_kr_out_asy" here, you just start to wonder ... - how this "ml_ad_ot_ur_ok" ... here constantly twists slyly and leads "a shadow to the fence" ...
    - He writes about "loyal Aliyev" -

    (Bakhtiyar) Yesterday, 21:53 PM
    ] Who will create the Maidan in Baku? Moscow? To change the loyal I. Aliyev to a clearly pro-Turkish popular front?

    And then about the possibility of Russian communications with Armenia and Syria:

    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) Today, 01:07 AM
    Full communication can be made only through Azerbaijan. But for this you need to unlock the railway. Until recently, the BTA of Russia supplied it through the airspace of Azerbaijan. Over the past two years, Azerbaijan has closed its airspace.

    - So, and with "what a ladu" loyal Azerbaijan suddenly closed the exit for Russia to Armenia and Syria ???

    - And the "chest" just opens:

    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) Today, 01:07 AM
    The connection is simple. If Armenia ceases occupation of 6 regions of Azerbaijan, the road will be unblocked.

    What is called ... we have arrived ... - It turns out that mighty Azerbaijan needs Russia to "put pressure" on Armenia, and then Armenia would transfer these "6 regions" under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan ... - No, well ... - this is what??? - Azerbaijan actually sided with the ISIS (or as this rabble is called today in Syria) ... - closing for Russia a more convenient route for the transfer of Russian military and other components to Armenia and Syria ... - And this made it very difficult for Russia, the task of supply and, in general, communication with Syria ... - And the reason ... is that Azerbaijan is not satisfied with the "position of Armenia" ... - like this ... - Bulgaria, Poland, Ukraine just nervously smoke on the sidelines ... - the Azerbaijanis are taking away their "legitimate bread" from them ...

    - In general ... it becomes somehow strange ... - for me, when personally I see with my own eyes - how many pluses they put down ... - "Bakht (Bakhtiyar)" here on the site ... - what kind of "support" is this? .. - a whole "Bakhtiyar's lobby" ... - Is it really strange to me alone ???
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    4. +1
      23 March 2020 23: 00
      Madam, you are throwing something from a sick person to a healthy one) You forget that Azerbaijan is at war with Armenia. How would you react to, say, Japan’s attempt (when the neutrality treaty with the USSR was still in force) to reach Hitler Germany through the territory of the USSR? They would say - you see, it is very necessary, the Triple Pact with us - the Japanese and Germany, you understand. Give the road)) It is not Russia that occupied 7 districts and the autonomous region (even the former) and conducted ethnic cleansing of all Azerbaijanis (partly destroying the population) of all these regions. This is not her 1 million refugees. It is in Azerbaijan that the Armenians killed in the most atrocious manner the civilian population of several large settlements (Khojaly, Karadagly, Agdaban, Mesheli, Baganis-airum, etc.)
      Russia is now enthusiastically involved in the conflict in faraway Syria for some indirect or potential threats, in general, obscure goals. But this is purely her business.
      And Azerbaijan has everything in real life: occupation of regions, refugees and genocide of the peaceful Azerbaijani population. What are you talking about? Something pulled you in the wrong direction ...
      1. +2
        24 March 2020 09: 43
        We have refugees from all the former republics of the USSR ... Almost all post-Soviet republics that separated from Russia built their independence on Russophobia!
        1. 0
          24 March 2020 11: 02
          Almost all post-Soviet republics that separated from Russia built their independence on Russophobia!

          Say thanks to the first president of the USSR and special thanks to the first guarantor of Russian independence from anything and everything.
          1. +2
            24 March 2020 11: 05
            Well, this is a separate conversation. The hunchback, of course, is still ... And as for the drunk Boris, the Soviet Union didn’t even collapse the Soviet Union, but the Soviet nationals. National wars in the USSR started back in the 80s ... Spratniks were the first to leave the Union, followed by Mazepa’s and Caucasians, and the republics of Central Asia were the last to leave.
            1. +2
              25 March 2020 10: 58
              .... Soviet nationalities.

              Because much was left at the mercy of local national princelings, there was practically no control from the center. Complaints and other petitions were wrapped up and sent "for verification" to the field, and there it was "everything was under control."
              The corruption component played an important role, it was necessary to fight not only with vodka, but also with all sorts of vitamins "B", telephone "vertebrates", nepotism and community at the highest level.
              Many who have power on the ground, and in the central office, have lost not only conscience, but also the fear of punishment.

              spratniks left the Union

              If the sprats had their tail uncompromisingly and specifically pressed, the rest of the national minorities would have quieted down instantly. They watched this show with wide eyes.
              Plus an absolutely wrong decision on the war in Afghanistan, with the unexpected condemnation of the policy not of "loved ones", but, first of all, of the Soviet people. Soldiers and officers who, following orders, risked their lives there.
              For just one bureaucratic phrase - "I / we did not send you there / and", it was necessary to beat the muzzles and remove from office with a ban on work in the governing bodies of whatever. Abomination.
              1. +2
                25 March 2020 12: 46
                I agree, flirting with the nationalities has never brought to the good and will not bring.
      2. -2
        24 March 2020 10: 19
        It makes no sense to explain. Many do not know, but solidarity with brothers in faith is blind, and stupidly minus.
    5. -2
      24 March 2020 10: 23
      We push ourselves, do not worry. And I personally wish you what the ordinary Khojaly citizen survived! And very soon!
  11. 0
    April 13 2020 11: 42
    A strange assumption. A conflict is possible, but the reason is not in the "aggressive actions of Baku", as the author of the article points out, but in the fact that the Armenian aggressors, with the support of the same Khramchikhin, are holding 20% ​​of the territory of Azerbaijan under occupation, despite 4 UN Security Council Resolutions, on immediate the withdrawal of the Armenian occupation troops from the territory of Azerbaijan. Thanks to such defenders, the Armenians have been ignoring the decisions of the highest body of international affairs for almost 30 years ... I also want to remind everyone present that in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh itself, the Armenians occupied seven Azerbaijani regions around it, which have nothing to do with it and were inhabited exclusively by Azerbaijanis ... Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave that is located inside Azerbaijan and never had a common border with Armenia ... It is also worth reminding that none of the countries in the world recognized the separatist regime of Karabakh, as well as the very existence of this artificial formation, including Armenia itself and the Russian Federation ... It turns out that for the sake of a handful of Armenians, artificially raised by Russia on the territory of the Erivan Khanate, Russia is ready to go to war with three regional countries at once? These are Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Why are Armenians so important for the Russian Federation? Is it possible that the country is an aggressor, a parasite country that eats out its miserable existence at the expense of handouts from other countries, is more important for you friendly, economic relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, not to mention Georgia. How is Russia going to get its tanks through Georgia? You don't need to be a fortune-teller to understand that Georgia will never give permission for the passage of enemy troops through its territory. Will you cross the borders of a sovereign country by force and fighting? If so, then Georgia needs to hide from such a rude and ignorant neighbor as soon as possible under the NATO umbrella. In this case, you will not be able to afford such arrogance towards a sovereign country and a NATO member. And the last thing. Azerbaijan does not plan to wage a war in Armenia. We will only liberate our occupied land. And if Iskanders fly from Yerevan to us, then this can be regarded as a declaration of war on us by Armenia. I don't think that in this case, the CSTO will have a moral motivation to enter the war on the side of Armenia. I'm pretty sure this war will completely ruin the CSTO.
  12. 69
    +1
    April 20 2020 08: 28
    Quote: KARAKURT21
    for a million Azerbaijani refugees put in a word?

    Ask in Norilsk, there in bulk in your parasites, probably more than a million.
  13. 69
    0
    April 20 2020 08: 32
    Quote: KARAKURT21
    And about the evidence about the Russian massacre, you didn’t provide anything

    But nothing needs to be provided. It is a fact. It is enough to compare how many Russians lived in your caravanserais under the USSR and how much is left, and count your livestock in Russian cities, which has bred like mold.
  14. -1
    April 21 2020 16: 44
    Who are you to insult my people? We are not Georgia for you either, cut yourself a business card. You and Georgia did not win.
    Weren't you even dumb when you sent your strategic aviation to Georgia and missed 8 planes there in 2 days? In your universities, 80% of non-Russians were taught, wind up. And the same Uzbeks, Turkmens, Kazakhs and even Armenians always saved your "titular nation". It is a sin to leave you with yourself, you send each other to the camps, and the Uzbeks feed, the Kazakhs teach, the Azerbaijanis provide resources.
    We are not strangers in the Russian Federation, but you are everywhere uninvited from Afghanistan to the Caucasus, from Iraq to Syria, from Crimea to the Kuril Islands.