Why Kiev's strategy is doomed to failure
Yury Grymchak, Deputy Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons of Ukraine, made a number of statements in an interview with the Ukrainian online publication Obozrevatel about the prospects of returning Donbass to Kiev’s control, RIA Russian agency reports today. News.
Grymchak described three scenarios, the first of which is “to quickly reach the world, you can give up. Quickly dissolve the army - and there will be peace and quiet, but not for long. ”
The second scenario, according to Yuri Grymchak, is military, but this alignment is "unlikely for many reasons." Recall that earlier Mr. Grymchak argued that the Ukrainian army would need only two weeks to restore the sovereignty of Ukraine in the Donbass.
According to this Ukrainian policy, the best option for Kiev would be the introduction of peacekeepers with the subsequent transfer of the region under the control of Ukraine.
Grymchak called the "Croatian" scenario the most preferable for the Ukrainian authorities, which implies the introduction of a peacekeeping mission in Donbass and the withdrawal of "foreign troops", that is, units of the Russian armed forces, whose presence in the disputed area Kiev politicians have been declaring for several years, but there is evidence of this and failed to imagine.
Note that Russia, in principle, does not object to the introduction of peacekeepers, but according to the so-called “Cypriot scenario”, according to which the “blue helmets” will fulfill the functions of guarding the OSCE mission, and will be accommodated only on the contact line of the parties.
In addition, as noted by Russian officials, the introduction of UN peacekeeping forces is possible only if the DPR and LPR agree to this.
Ukraine, of course, seeks to deploy peacekeepers throughout the territory of Donbass, and under such cover reintegrate disputed territories. In fact, in this scenario, “blue helmets”, according to the idea of Kiev, should fulfill the role of policemen during the Great Patriotic War, especially since, as residents of Donbass do not hide in private conversations, they do not see the possibility of exercising free will in the presence of hostile armed groups, because they’re simply afraid for their lives.
Note that Vladimir Putin, supporting the idea of sending peacekeepers to the Donbass in the Russian format, emphasized the lack of alternativeness of the Minsk agreements to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
In Kiev, on the contrary, they argue that the Minsk agreements can only be implemented if peacekeepers are deployed to the entire territory of Donbass. On the other hand, Russian experts, commenting on this idea of the Ukrainian authorities, note that if the reintegration of Donbass follows the “Croatian” scenario, Kiev may completely refuse to implement the Minsk process, especially since the Ukrainian law on reintegration of Donbass adopted this year The Minsk agreements are not named at all as the main element of the reintegration process.
We also note that the full and unconditional implementation of the Minsk Agreements is unprofitable for the Ukrainian side, since then the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions will receive a special status, in a certain sense comparable with the Russian protectorate over the Russian population of these Ukrainian regions. Since the implementation of the Minsk Agreements takes place in the so-called "Norman format", that is, with the participation of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine, a direct refusal of Kiev from the Minsk process is impossible.
At the same time, the active promotion by Ukraine of the idea of introducing a peacekeeping corps in the Donbass is beneficial for Ukrainian politicians, since it makes it possible to tighten the implementation of the Minsk Agreements in every way, since it is clear that no UN peacekeeping mission anywhere, including in the Donbass, can be formed without the consent of one of the members of the UN Security Council, in this case, Russia.
Over time, they hope in Kiev, the situation will not change in Moscow’s favor, and then it will be possible to annex the DPR and LPR without resorting to any Minsk agreements. However, a number of diplomatic crises over the past months have invariably ended in the strengthening of Russia's position, so these calculations are most likely also doomed to failure.
Grymchak described three scenarios, the first of which is “to quickly reach the world, you can give up. Quickly dissolve the army - and there will be peace and quiet, but not for long. ”
The second scenario, according to Yuri Grymchak, is military, but this alignment is "unlikely for many reasons." Recall that earlier Mr. Grymchak argued that the Ukrainian army would need only two weeks to restore the sovereignty of Ukraine in the Donbass.
According to this Ukrainian policy, the best option for Kiev would be the introduction of peacekeepers with the subsequent transfer of the region under the control of Ukraine.
Grymchak called the "Croatian" scenario the most preferable for the Ukrainian authorities, which implies the introduction of a peacekeeping mission in Donbass and the withdrawal of "foreign troops", that is, units of the Russian armed forces, whose presence in the disputed area Kiev politicians have been declaring for several years, but there is evidence of this and failed to imagine.
Note that Russia, in principle, does not object to the introduction of peacekeepers, but according to the so-called “Cypriot scenario”, according to which the “blue helmets” will fulfill the functions of guarding the OSCE mission, and will be accommodated only on the contact line of the parties.
In addition, as noted by Russian officials, the introduction of UN peacekeeping forces is possible only if the DPR and LPR agree to this.
Ukraine, of course, seeks to deploy peacekeepers throughout the territory of Donbass, and under such cover reintegrate disputed territories. In fact, in this scenario, “blue helmets”, according to the idea of Kiev, should fulfill the role of policemen during the Great Patriotic War, especially since, as residents of Donbass do not hide in private conversations, they do not see the possibility of exercising free will in the presence of hostile armed groups, because they’re simply afraid for their lives.
Note that Vladimir Putin, supporting the idea of sending peacekeepers to the Donbass in the Russian format, emphasized the lack of alternativeness of the Minsk agreements to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
In Kiev, on the contrary, they argue that the Minsk agreements can only be implemented if peacekeepers are deployed to the entire territory of Donbass. On the other hand, Russian experts, commenting on this idea of the Ukrainian authorities, note that if the reintegration of Donbass follows the “Croatian” scenario, Kiev may completely refuse to implement the Minsk process, especially since the Ukrainian law on reintegration of Donbass adopted this year The Minsk agreements are not named at all as the main element of the reintegration process.
We also note that the full and unconditional implementation of the Minsk Agreements is unprofitable for the Ukrainian side, since then the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions will receive a special status, in a certain sense comparable with the Russian protectorate over the Russian population of these Ukrainian regions. Since the implementation of the Minsk Agreements takes place in the so-called "Norman format", that is, with the participation of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine, a direct refusal of Kiev from the Minsk process is impossible.
At the same time, the active promotion by Ukraine of the idea of introducing a peacekeeping corps in the Donbass is beneficial for Ukrainian politicians, since it makes it possible to tighten the implementation of the Minsk Agreements in every way, since it is clear that no UN peacekeeping mission anywhere, including in the Donbass, can be formed without the consent of one of the members of the UN Security Council, in this case, Russia.
Over time, they hope in Kiev, the situation will not change in Moscow’s favor, and then it will be possible to annex the DPR and LPR without resorting to any Minsk agreements. However, a number of diplomatic crises over the past months have invariably ended in the strengthening of Russia's position, so these calculations are most likely also doomed to failure.
Information