In the USA predicted the victory of the Kremlin in the "oil war"


American scientist studying Russian-American relations, employee of the Institute for Foreign Studies policy in Philadelphia, Nicholas K. Gvosdev said in an article for National Interest magazine that a collapse in oil prices is economic a war in which Russia has a high chance of victory. Gvozdev is also a professor of national security research at the U.S. Naval College and a former editor of The National Interest magazine.


It should be noted that Gvozdev is a supporter of "new realism" in US foreign policy and advocates the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington. In the USA, this specialist is considered a serious expert in Russia.

The Kremlin entered the game of chance, betting that by the end of the year it could not only take revenge on the United States, but also restore its partnership with Saudi Arabia

- Gvozdev wrote.

Gvozdev believes that Moscow is ready to take risks from a possible increase in confrontation with the Americans and gain an advantage over Washington. He cited the situation in Syria as an example.

The Russians moved some red lines drawn by Ankara, and then showed Turkey the extent to which it could count on the United States and its European allies (or not). After that, Erdogan went to Moscow to resume negotiations with Vladimir Putin

- explained Gvozdev.

According to Gvozdev, the failure of the OPEC + agreement occurred due to the fact that the deal ceased to be profitable for Russian oil companies.

But Russians have a number of advantages. The Russian budget can be implemented at much lower oil prices than the Saudi. Russia can increase pipeline exports, and Saudi oil will increase the consumer’s output when production increases, as it is delivered by tankers. And most importantly, the Saudis want to compete with Russia for market share in Europe, and there, more expensive US exports will be supplanted

- pointed Gvozdev.

Gvozdev is sure that in such a situation, deterioration of relations between Riyadh and Washington is possible.

Thanks to a talented team from the Russian Ministry of Finance, a good money reserve for a rainy day has been created in the country, which will help in achieving these goals. Putin has learned from Trump's trade wars: be prepared for short-term damage if you think your opponents will be forced to give in. Perhaps his assumptions in the coming weeks and months will be confirmed

- concluded Gvozdev.

Necessary to remindthat from April 1, 2020, the OPEC + agreement ceases to be valid and all countries will be able to produce oil without restrictions.
  • Photos used: https://pxhere.com/
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 11 March 2020 15: 11
    -4
    It should be recalled that from April 1, 2020, the OPEC + agreement ceases to be valid and all countries will be able to produce oil without restrictions.

    In the USA predicted the victory of the Kremlin in the "oil war"

    - But for this it is necessary first to neutralize Iran .., which works closely with China ...
    - For some reason everyone has forgotten about China ... - and now he is in full control of "Iranian hydrocarbons" ...
    - China with someone else's hands (Russian hands) just cleared a place for itself under the sun ... - And now it will start to extract Iranian oil with might and main ... and use it and trade it without limit ... - So who won the "oil war", " not fighting "not a single day in this" war ".. ???
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 11 March 2020 16: 41
    -1
    Here it is, it turns out what

    But Russians have a number of advantages. The Russian budget can be implemented at much lower oil prices than the Saudi. Russia can increase pipeline exports, and Saudi oil will increase the consumer’s output when production increases, as it is delivered by tankers. And most importantly, the Saudis want to compete with Russia for market share in Europe, and there, more expensive US exports will be supplanted

    Adherents of the shale revolution, where are you? smile Explain that pipelines are a relic of the past, American gas is cheaper, and in general, an expert is not real. smile
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 11 March 2020 22: 50
      +2
      Quote: 123
      Adherents of the shale revolution, where are you?

      They are in the Fed. The Fed has already bought back the debts of shale oil worth 250 billion, now those do not need to return this amount, and the price of shale oil and gas will fall by half.
      Of course, drilling new ones is new debt, but you can live peacefully for three years.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 11 March 2020 23: 10
        +3
        They are in the Fed. The Fed has already bought back the debts of shale oil worth 250 billion, now those do not need to return this amount, and the price of shale oil and gas will fall by half.

        Does "writing off" debts make oil and gas prices lower? The cost of production and prices on the world market do not change from this.

        Of course, drilling new ones is new debt, but you can live peacefully for three years.

        Interesting business. They got it, counted it, shed a tear, debts written off and everything in a circle. laughing
        1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
          Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 12 March 2020 21: 10
          +1
          The USSR lived and reincarnated in the United States. Both with hunting for enemies of the people, and cancellation of debts of drunken chairmen.
          If you do not need to repay billions of dollars in loans, you will sell the extracted oil profitably at any price. True, shale wells have not lived for more than three years.
    2. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 12 March 2020 07: 15
      -3
      The "expert" is certainly wonderful, "former editor The National Interest magazine."Can you tell me why now official and various" spiritually uplifting "sources from all foreign resources, by 90 percent, quote The National Interest? Such suspicious" love "does not lead to any thoughts?
  3. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 11 March 2020 22: 54
    0
    Probably, Russia now benefits from oil at 30. Not because of the shale, because of Syria. The Turks and Trump, at a price of 60, exported oil in tanks, at 20. At an oil of 30, a delicious sweetie becomes bitter for barmaley - more than 5 will not be given for a barrel. And the foundation for the self-sufficiency of the war with Assad is being undermined, both for Erdogan’s son (who rumbles with oil stolen in Syria) and for Trump.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 11 March 2020 23: 26
      +3
      Probably, Russia now benefits from oil at 30.

      I doubt that it’s profitable, it’s a trade war, dumping, retaining market share and preventing competitors from working.

      Not because of the shale, because of Syria. The Turks and Trump, at a price of 60, exported oil in tanks, at 20. At an oil of 30, a delicious sweetie becomes bitter for barmaley - more than 5 will not be given for a barrel. And the foundation for the self-sufficiency of the war with Assad is being undermined, both for Erdogan’s son (who rumbles with oil stolen in Syria) and for Trump.

      I suppose everything is somewhat more complicated. First, there is a struggle for the European oil + gas market. Secondly, the Americans are not allowed to increase their share in the world market, including in China. Third, sanctions against Rosneft's subsidiary, Venezuelan oil, come into force in May. Fourth, Syria, but everything there is not limited to the "unprofitability" of the theft of oil, Iran's finances are more and more difficult, it will have fewer assets in Syria. It's time to slowly return them to their homeland. In Saudi Arabia, everything is also not easy, there is an internal struggle for the throne, the inheritance is divided in advance. A couple of princes think about the meaning of life in Zindan.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 11 March 2020 23: 44
    -3
    Again, all lousy garbage ... all the idea of ​​a conspiracy suck ....

    Money doesn't smell. You get more - you sell more, more money ...
    And prices have already collapsed because of the virus.
    1. g1washntwn Offline g1washntwn
      g1washntwn (George Washington) 12 March 2020 06: 27
      +3
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      You get more - you sell more, more money ...

      The term "overproduction" makes your formula untenable (world production has almost doubled since the 70s). We are talking about Europe, where demand is relatively stable and any increase in supply only reduces prices, which cannot be compensated for by additional volumes, and after their statements about a gradual decrease in the consumption of non-renewable energy resources, the market sank even more, and this is also from the category of speculation to reduce market prices. Yes, this is not a conspiracy theory ... this is strategic speculation and a working concept, a "free market" and a primitive side view of economics here.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 12 March 2020 09: 07
        -1
        This is simplistic, I agree.
        But since the owners of the Russian Federation did not agree to limit the sale, it means they do not believe in the effectiveness of freezing. And they will try to sell as before, or more, in order to earn at least in quantity.
  5. DGFFSDGDFG Offline DGFFSDGDFG
    DGFFSDGDFG (wasefdgrt) 12 March 2020 13: 05
    +1
    And in order not to print bucks for shale workers and not to give out who will explain such a victory to me.
  6. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 12 March 2020 18: 32
    -2
    Just a bunch of questions. Who will win? The Saudis? Kuwaitis, Iraqis and Nigerians who rushed after them? Americans?
    Not an article, but a set of amateurish thoughts. On a proposal to reduce production to maintain prices, Russia said no. As a result, a drop in oil prices, a drop in budget-forming revenues and a drop in the ruble. All this against the background of coronavirus and a very unstable economy. The first victories have already been won - the dollar for 73 and the fall of the exchange while reducing oil revenues.
    A drop in oil prices by $ 10 gives the US a 0,25% increase in GDP. Well, shale oil will become unprofitable for 50% of deposits for some time, so what? The bankruptcy system in the industry and its insurance have long been debugged there. We have already gone through this. For the Americans, this is a shot for an elephant, but a price war with OPEC could undermine the Russian economy. Already today you can forget about the increase above 1%, and this is at least. Russia has been reducing citizens' incomes for 6 years and, perhaps, Putin decided to maintain stability.