Military Watch: S-400 will dramatically change the balance of power in Idlib


Just a few hours after the entry into force of the Ceasefire Agreement between Damascus and Ankara in the Syrian province of Idlib, concluded with the mediation of Russia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced plans for strengthening the country's air defense.


About this writes the American magazine Military Watch.

S-400 is already ours. We continue to learn to work with them. Anti-aircraft missile systems will be ready for use in April. Yesterday, I told [Russian colleagues] that if the United States agrees to supply us with Patriot air defense systems, we will buy them too

- said the president of Turkey.

This statement was a response to the words of the US representative to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, who said that Washington was counting on Ankara’s refusal from Russian anti-aircraft systems. At the same time, Turkey’s desire to acquire American Patriot air defense systems in the White House is regarded as an attempt to evade punishment for the purchase of the S-400.

Damascus, in turn, is not sure of the reliability of the Ceasefire Agreement, signed in Moscow, as Turkey continues to supply arms to jihadist groups in Idlib. Moreover, it extends the Turkish presence on Syrian soil, which is illegal.

However, fears in Damascus are caused by attempts (often successful) by the Turks to intercept Syrian bombers attacking militants on the ground. The Turkish air forces acted very carefully, preferring to work from their airspace with long-range American-made AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles without crossing the Syrian border. Air defense systems that are in service with the ATS, although not the most modern, but still pose a danger to F-16 fighters.


The launch of the AIM-120 AMRAAM rocket fighter F-16. Photo: US Air Force

The use of fighter aircraft was the only opportunity for Turkey to oppose the Syrians. However, with the commissioning of the S-400 anti-aircraft systems, the balance of forces in the Idlib zone can change dramatically.

The Turks will no longer need to risk their aircraft - its place will be taken by the S-400 air defense system, which, being on the Turkish-Syrian border, will actually close the sky over the region. In this scenario, Damascus can only rely on Moscow, which has to convince Ankara not to use modern air defense systems against Syrian aviation. However, knowing Erdogan and the firmness of his intentions, such requests are unlikely to lead to the desired result.
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  1. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 March 2020 18: 40
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    The Turks will remain without spare parts and deliveries of missiles to the S-400 air defense system from the Russian Federation, just as Ukraine and Georgia remained ...
  2. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) 8 March 2020 19: 16
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    In the brains of IMHO missiles there are "bookmarks" that will not allow them to be used against Russian aviation.
    1. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 9 March 2020 19: 16
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      There are no bookmarks there. This is the trouble ... We are not amer ...
      1. Nick Offline
        Nick (Nikolai) 9 March 2020 21: 01
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        Quote: A.Lex
        There are no bookmarks there. This is the trouble ... We are not amer ...

        The fact that we are not Americans, I have no doubt. The fact that the system does not provide a ban on the attack of Russian aircraft, I doubt it very much.
        1. A.Lex Offline
          A.Lex (Secret information) 10 March 2020 12: 45
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          To doubt is your right. But the statements of our leadership directly and unequivocally speak about this.
          1. Nick Offline
            Nick (Nikolai) 10 March 2020 21: 07
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            Quote: A.Lex
            ... the statements of our management speak directly and unequivocally about this.

            Where is he talking? I have not heard.
            1. A.Lex Offline
              A.Lex (Secret information) 12 March 2020 14: 12
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              Nikolay, why should I do something for you? You have the entire network at your disposal.
              1. Nick Offline
                Nick (Nikolai) 19 March 2020 02: 50
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                Quote: A.Lex
                Nikolay, why should I do something for you? You have the entire network at your disposal.

                I do not ask for anything to do. You do it for yourself. Confirm your statements with serious arguments and facts. If you can’t, then you are a fake.
  3. Bitter Offline
    Bitter (Gleb) 8 March 2020 19: 17
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    S-400 air defense system, which, being on the Turkish-Syrian border, will actually close the sky over the region.

    What's the point?
    Firstly, these S-400s still need to be mastered.
    And secondly, the Turks have enough of their own, already "mastered" air defense systems and artillery, to land all Syrian aviation.
    And with the S-400, they will rather cover themselves in Ankara.
  4. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 8 March 2020 19: 48
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    Military Watch: S-400 will dramatically change the balance of power in Idlib

    - What is there and how will it change in Idlib ...
    - But only one thing is clear ... - Russia, of its own free will, through the efforts of our guarantor ...- got a huge headache ...- having installed the S-400 complexes in Turkey ... - Already today it "responded" ... - and in the future it’ll even “scamper” ... - Why it was necessary to do this, to your own detriment ... - it’s completely incomprehensible ... - With the same success, Russia could deliver the S-400 and ... to Japan ... etc...
    1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 20: 45
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      Another stupid thing you said. Who needs an escalation of the conflict? Especially Turkey against Russia? East is a delicate matter. The Turks have their own interests there, the Russians have their own. These interests, unfortunately, intersect with the interests of other parties. But this is not better for relations between Russia and Turkey.
      1. gorenina91 Offline
        gorenina91 (Irina) 8 March 2020 20: 51
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        Personally, I’ll ask you not to contact me with your comments anymore ... - They are all of very, very crappy quality ... - Obviously, you are a little of yourself ...
        “And you shouldn’t just waste your time and attention on such ...”
        - From now on, you are in group “O” and are deprived of the right to contact me ... -Slap your minuses silently ...
        1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 20: 57
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          You are by far the most ... opponent on this site. Maybe I really can't imagine anything. I am an ordinary reader, but for some reason you are minuscule much more often than me. What pleases)
        2. A.Lex Offline
          A.Lex (Secret information) 9 March 2020 19: 21
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          Ira, it’s strange ... it’s not so good with opponents. If you have nothing to say, then just keep silent - it is gold. If you shove everyone in O, then who will you communicate with?
          .... And we have one group here - readers of the Reporter site ... they are also commentators ...
    2. NordUral Offline
      NordUral (Eugene) 8 March 2020 22: 46
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      I agree with you, Irina, still comes around. The country is led by traders.
  5. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 8 March 2020 19: 51
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    Putin has done business in Putin! Now people have a headache, and especially the military. What to do???
    1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 20: 47
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      What to do? What to do?
      It did not fit the steelworkers to panic)
  6. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 8 March 2020 20: 04
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    Although the S-400 is a mobile complex, their location is known. Satellite images have been uploaded to the network for a long time. The first regiment covers the capital. The second is planned to be used to cover the North. Cyprus. What the military watch writes there may be interesting. But this is still speculation.
    1. Kristallovich Offline
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 20: 32
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      What is the location? They are now setting up the system, conducting tests, exercises ... Then the complex can be transferred to any region of Turkey. There are no difficulties at all.
      1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 20: 49
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        Nobody is going to throw anything anywhere yet. Leave the fruit of your sore imagination to yourself.
        1. Kristallovich Offline
          Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 20: 53
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          Did the Turkish Minister of Defense personally tell you about the plans for the transfer or not the transfer? Imagination is inflamed just in you, for you give out your personal opinion as truth. You do not have access to the plans of the Turkish Ministry of Defense and cannot be, relax. I, unlike you, did not say anything.
          1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 21: 03
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            Let me disagree) you are just escalating, claiming that

            ... Then the complex can be transferred to any region of Turkey. There are no difficulties at all ...

            Therefore, I urged you to leave your alarm statements to myself) what is wrong here?
            1. Kristallovich Offline
              Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 21: 06
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              Do you see the statement in “it will be possible to transfer”? This only shows the possibility of transferring the complex, which is confirmed by its performance characteristics. It is mobile, which means it can be removed from the deployment site and transported to another place in a short time. Do you want to challenge it?
              1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 21: 19
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                No, I do not want to dispute any hypothetical possibilities of something. Just the direction of your thoughts leads unambiguously to the escalation of information tension. And this is propaganda. The work of a journalist (if you consider yourself as such) should be reduced to a banal statement of facts, without any bias towards them.
                1. Kristallovich Offline
                  Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 21: 26
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                  I apologize, but I cannot be held responsible for how and where you perceive the information. But the denial of everything and everything is no longer serious.
      2. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 8 March 2020 20: 50
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        The complex is mobile. I pointed it out. And it is planned to put them on combat duty in the summer of 2020. But here is the info:

        https://topwar.ru/162036-mesto-razmeschenija-s-400-v-turcii-opredelil-izrailskij-sputnik-shpion.html
        1. Kristallovich Offline
          Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 20: 59
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          The information is old and says absolutely nothing. It is not clear why this link is necessary. Pictures were taken after unloading complex elements from our transporters. Where the air defense system is located at the moment, neither I nor you know.
          1. Bakht Offline
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 8 March 2020 21: 04
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            Neither you nor I know this. But the article itself (thank you, as an author, for the information) does not mean anything. I do not think that the Turkish Minister of Defense or President Erdogan personally announced their plans to Military Watch.
            So, thanks for the information, but we are discussing FICTION in the media. Whether they will be thrown to the border with Syria is unknown.
            1. Kristallovich Offline
              Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 21: 08
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              So the publication does not seem to approve anything. It only describes the possibility of such a scenario. Is not it so? )
              1. Bakht Offline
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 8 March 2020 21: 19
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                This is how publications describe a possible scenario of nuclear war. You can, of course, speculate. But (they have already noted here), and what about the components, the rockets themselves .... nor the future "partnership" itself.
                1. Kristallovich Offline
                  Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 21: 32
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                  But Russia is unlikely to sell Turkey the S-400 with the condition of not using an air defense system against Syrian aviation ... What do you think? After all, the Turks shot down Syrian planes, using the F-16. And no one questioned the "partnership." What prevents them from using the S-400? As for the components, we do not know the nuances of the contract. However, as a rule, it includes the supply of missiles and other things over a certain period of time.
                  1. Bakht Offline
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 8 March 2020 21: 42
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                    I always knew and said that Erdogan is not the person who will abide by the agreement. No one can stop the Turks from using the S-400 at their own discretion. From this point of view, the sale of the latest air defense systems to the NATO country is not entirely clear. There may be an excuse for some sort of long political game. But with Erdogan I would not bet on a long game. Unreliable.
                    From a military point of view, at one time there were many questions about the compatibility of the S-400 and NATO air defense systems. A separate complex does not solve anything. Need an integrated system. The same S-400 must be covered from air strikes. For this, both Shells and BUKs are used. Compatibility of Russian and NATO communication systems, detection. A lot of military issues that I’m not very good at.
                    From a purely military point of view, we all have witnessed how Erdogan just bent the other day. So, he is unlikely to use the S-400 against Russian aviation. Against the Syrian - it is possible, but this is shooting from cannons at sparrows. So far, the Syrian aircraft have been successfully landing the Turkish Air Force. It is more important for Erdogan to cover up a strong air defense for gas development in the Cyprus area.
                    ------
                    Literally today a message came that Russia increased the quota of supplies of Turkish tomatoes by 50 tons for 000. Given the 2020 dead Turkish military, this is 50 tons of tomatoes per soldier. Inexpensive ...
                    1. Kristallovich Offline
                      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 8 March 2020 21: 44
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                      Yes, the matter, in fact, was about Syrian aviation. He will not dare to raise his hand to the Russian ... Unless by chance. But it could be.
                      1. Bakht Offline
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 8 March 2020 21: 47
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                        And who is interested in Syrian aviation? Is she - the decisive force in Idlib? The Syrians also lost planes from the MANPADS of barmaley (Erdogan had already fitted them with enough barmaley). So I can repeat: the use of the S-400 against Syrian aviation is the shooting of cannons at sparrows.
                        But that's my personal opinion. Military Watch may not agree with him. I'm not very upset about this.
                    2. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 22: 16
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                      And where do these messages come to you?)
                  2. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 23: 53
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                    It is a pity that you write articles without knowing “the nuances of the terms of the contract”)) But they are simple - they do not provide for the transfer of technology. Just like you don’t know if it includes

                    .. delivery of missiles and other things over a period of time ...

                    Most likely, "under certain circumstances ..." does not include. Somehow a weak knowledge of the topic is felt. And I would like to hear the opinion of an expert)
                    1. Kristallovich Offline
                      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 9 March 2020 08: 30
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                      The contract in any case includes the supply of missiles. Question in quantity. There is no talk about technology transfer or non-technology transfer either in the article or in the comments. And the last: I did not write an article, this is a translation of a foreign press. Think with your head before you write anything. It helps in life.
                      1. The comment was deleted.
                      2. A.Lex Offline
                        A.Lex (Secret information) 9 March 2020 20: 19
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                        laughing Well, that's it! And I'm not me, and the article is not mine ... good bully
        2. A.Lex Offline
          A.Lex (Secret information) 9 March 2020 19: 35
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          Bahit, in September there was an article on VO - everything is there. I do not see the subject of controversy - everything has long been known to everyone. Why argue? U-Divan-Expert also spoke about this (only he didn’t refer to the source - they caught him and “mined him” on this ... but he is right!).
      3. A.Lex Offline
        A.Lex (Secret information) 9 March 2020 19: 31
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        Ruslan ... this is an article on VO

        S-400 Location in Turkey Defined by Israeli Spy Satellite

        this is from there:




        The article was in September ...

        We are talking about images from the spy satellite Eros-B. His cameras found the C-400 Turkish Armed Forces, located near the capital of Ankara. It's about the Akinchi military base.

        That's exactly "no difficulties" - the very first link in a search engine.
        1. Kristallovich Offline
          Kristallovich (Ruslan) 9 March 2020 19: 52
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          In September they were there, no one disputes this. But did they stay? I don’t know this. As, however, to you.
          1. A.Lex Offline
            A.Lex (Secret information) 10 March 2020 12: 22
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            laughing The Turks have such a vast territory that such objects could be "hidden" anywhere? Or objects - a needle so that it can be stuck anywhere?
            1. Kristallovich Offline
              Kristallovich (Ruslan) 10 March 2020 12: 27
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              the Turks have such a vast territory that such objects could be "hidden" anywhere?

              The Turks, not the "Turks". So much, not so much. Learn Russian and do not disgrace.
              1. The comment was deleted.
          2. Dear sofa expert. 12 March 2020 14: 35
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            That's it! You “do not know this,” but you are trying to raise a storm in a glass here with your own “conclusions-speculations”. Question - what is the purpose of this (de) information?
  7. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 8 March 2020 20: 44
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    - Turkey today looks ... like ... like a monkey with a grenade; or "Like a madman with a razor in his hand" (even A. Tarkovsky had to be mentioned) ... -So that this "madman" can slash this "razor" ...- at least Syria (which he constantly does); and even Russia itself ... - no one decides to him ...- Why is Russia alone with such “crazy people” and also accepts them at home ... as guests of honor ...- it’s completely incomprehensible ...
    1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 21: 06
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      Russia does not “accept them at home,” but as a strong man, “generously allows” to come to bow. This, apparently, is difficult for you to understand while sitting in your Kuev.
    2. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 23: 56
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      If you suddenly go to Turkey to relax, do not remind them better of your comparison with a monkey with a grenade) is just friendly advice.
  8. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 21: 36
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    Kristallovich:

    I apologize, but I cannot be held responsible for how and where you perceive the information. But the denial of everything and everything is no longer serious.

    Fu, how cowardly and obscene for the author of these lines) wrote, and blocked the possibility of an answer.
    1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 23: 25
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      Also confirmed the ending))) is ridiculous
      1. A.Lex Offline
        A.Lex (Secret information) 9 March 2020 22: 14
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        UDE, it so often happens here ... There are authors who have the opportunity to edit their comments a day later (when the opponent bumps their nose), as well as delete the comments of opponents if they do not like them (although neither mats, nor there are no insults, but just a question - why do they use the "command and administrative resource"? ... I wanted to find this "author ... but I didn’t get it - I need to go to sleep - I’ll try to continue tomorrow, I’ll find it - I’ll name it)). it happens here!
        1. The comment was deleted.
      2. The comment was deleted.
        1. Dear sofa expert. 10 March 2020 13: 13
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          Pity him, he's just not mature enough. The blow (even intellectual) does not know how to hold.
          1. A.Lex Offline
            A.Lex (Secret information) 12 March 2020 14: 22
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            UDE, I told you that it will erase! And so it happened! ....
  9. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 March 2020 21: 39
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    And why is trade growing with enemies? - So you have to rejoice! (Putin, verbatim)

    And you - do not master the S-400, bookmarks, Russia will not allow ....
    Not C-400, so Patriot, not Patriot - so something of your own ...

    So far, "Loot does not smell", and all ... Rejoice!
    1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 21: 48
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      Selling S-400, they get money to develop S-500, selling S-500, they get money to develop S-600 .. and so on. Is it really that hard to understand?)
      1. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 March 2020 21: 51
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        Of course, of course, you are absolutely right !!! Money doesn't smell!

        And to sell, of course. better Erdogan associated with the terrorists IG .. l (O. z. nt Russian Federation).
        1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 22: 02
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          Do you think that it is better for America to sell its “patriots” to them?
          1. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 March 2020 23: 30
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            1) No.
            2) She will sell them anyway.
            3) It is necessary to rejoice. (Putin) But not the Syrians.
            1. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 00: 02
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              Yes, he will sell it ... and yes) they sold the S-400, apparently, to deprive the Americans of the opportunity to PR their F35. Maybe another goal.
              The Syrians have nothing to do with it. Or are there already cases when they were shot down by these complexes?
            2. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 00: 05
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              And then, you must admit, Russia in Syria has much more important interests of its own, except for protecting the Syrians from the Turks (this, by the way, was not specified in the agreement with Assad).
              1. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 9 March 2020 09: 10
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                1) S-300, like S-400, has not yet shown significant.
                They didn’t bring down anything obvious. But the development time has not passed yet.
                2) F-35 PR only this way. The same Erdogan - we will buy, just give ...
                With the S-400 is not directly connected ..
                3) I agree, not hired. We will sell both of them. Money doesn't smell.
  10. Cheburashk Offline
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 8 March 2020 21: 59
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    I hope that in our S-400 for the Turks will be pleasant surprises for them!
    1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 22: 04
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      S-400s sold to the Turks certainly do not contain surprises. There, apparently, everything is honest. Another thing, the S-400 is not the latest development of the Russian military-industrial complex.
      1. Dear sofa expert. 8 March 2020 22: 24
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        Passed by the one who hates Russia! it is obvious)
        1. Arkharov Offline
          Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 9 March 2020 10: 57
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          And Russia, is this, apparently, you?
          1. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 14: 07
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            I am for Russia. Unlike you, with your Russian surname. By the way, the one who gave it to you, apparently, did not think that it would turn out like that.
            1. Arkharov Offline
              Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 9 March 2020 16: 40
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              As the second part of your nickname unusually successfully characterizes your essence. Did you invent it yourself, or did someone give it to you?
              1. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 22: 21
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                Do you want me to present this second part to you?) It will also be just right for you. I’ll come up with something new for myself.
    2. Binder Offline
      Binder (Miron) 9 March 2020 05: 50
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      Gentlemen, commentators, in my opinion, tend to overestimate the S-400 complexes sold to the Turks. This is far from a miracle weapon and they have no decisive significance for changing the situation in the region. You, gentlemen, are better concerned about the results of the demonstration of the Turkish drones beating Russian and Syrian equipment and manpower in Idlib - this is where the headache for the Russian Defense Ministry and General Staff is! Just think, some kind of Turkey is happy with this, not the United States or Israel - recognized leaders in this area of ​​arms development, and not a very advanced Muslim country. And in Russia, there are still no combat drones in sight, just as there are no effective methods of dealing with them.
      1. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 14: 18
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        The headache is not the drones themselves. The tactics used by the Turks in the context of local geopolitics is very vile in itself. Stop using drones is easy if you destroy command posts immediately. But it’s just that they are in a state that is not officially in a war with Syria, much less with Russia. As well as coordination of drone control is carried out from the territories of at least neutral states. This is the reality of the war in Syria.
      2. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 14: 22
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        UAV "Outpost", for example. Well, there are also new developments.
        1. Binder Offline
          Binder (Miron) 9 March 2020 17: 23
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          Quote: Dear couch expert.
          UAV "Outpost"

          "Outpost" is not a combat drone, but a reconnaissance one, this is a licensed copy of an old Israeli IAI "Searcher" assembled in Russia from Israeli components using the screwdriver assembly method. In Israel, this model has not been used for a long time. And the new Russian developments are far from mass production, as Vorkuta is far from the tropics.
      3. Cheburashk Offline
        Cheburashk (Vladimir) 9 March 2020 19: 55
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        Do you propose to give up immediately? And how do you know everything, huh? What is, what doesn’t Russia have, huh?
      4. A.Lex Offline
        A.Lex (Secret information) 9 March 2020 22: 18
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        Miron, the export version is ALWAYS worse than the original ... though not by much ...
        1. Binder Offline
          Binder (Miron) 9 March 2020 22: 23
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          Not always, but often.
  11. Pawel ignatiew Offline
    Pawel ignatiew (Pawel Ignatiew) 9 March 2020 05: 46
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    Kindergarten ... The younger group ... In the comments of 90 percent associate professors :)
    1. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 14: 19
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      And show us all a master class, Pasha!))
  12. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) 9 March 2020 12: 38
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    The stupidity of the Kremlin was visible initially. Now, probably, they began to understand what they had done ... although this is not certain. To supply such weapons to the sponsor of terrorism is cool ....
    1. Dear sofa expert. 9 March 2020 14: 09
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      The Kremlin cannot be stupid. This is a building)