Negotiations in Moscow: Putin managed to “push through” Erdogan?

March 6 2020 27

So, the long-awaited meeting between Presidents Putin and Erdogan in Syria took place. The ceasefire reached during the negotiations officially began last night, the fire ceased, which in itself was good. What has each side achieved, and can the conflict in Idlib be considered finally settled?

March 4 at the "Reporter" came out publication with the title "Negotiations of Putin and Erdogan: how will the north of Syria be divided?" Let's see what came out of the forecast made.

We proceeded from the thesis that a real war, even on a local theater, is not needed today either by Turkey or Russia. Since the Syrian army was going on the offensive on the position of pro-Turkish militants in Idlib, the ball, as they say, was on the side of Ankara. Fortunately, despite the southern temperament, common sense among President Erdogan prevailed. Apparently, several factors worked for this at once:

At firstThe United States and NATO refused to directly "fit" into the conflict specifically in Idlib, leaving it to the Turkish army.

SecondlyMoscow refused to leave Bashar al-Assad “alone with Erdogan,” and Tehran threatened to give an answer if the Turks continued to hit pro-Iranian formations that supported Damascus.

ThirdlyDespite the many hotheads waging a “virtual war” against Russia on social networks, the majority of the Turkish population will not support the real war, and this threatens President Erdogan with a further drop in rating in the event of major losses and defeats.

FourthlyAnkara imprudently began to disperse its forces, opening a second front in Libya, where it also began to suffer the first combat losses. At the same time, Damascus began to build relations with the LNA of Khalifa Haftar.

Fifthly, the aggravation of the situation in Idlib hit the rate of the Turkish national currency, the lira even more, which had a very negative impact on the economy countries. Obviously, if a real war began with Syria and Russia, economic losses would be much higher.

It can be concluded that these reasons forced Recep Erdogan to pull himself together and turn off the “borzometer”. The maximum program in the form of a further advance to the south of Idlib or the legalization of the presence of Turkey in the SAR through the creation of a certain "Turkoman Republic" in Ankara was abandoned. For now, anyway.

However, further north Erdogan did not retreat. Turkish troops remained where they were as of the night of March 5th. Ankara itself gave the right to return fire in the event of an attack by the Syrians. The Turkish observation posts, which bypassed the government army of the SAR, remained in their places.

That is, we are talking about exactly what we have been talking about for so long: there has been another redistribution of the north of Syria. In general, this can be considered a serious success for Damascus and Moscow: the southern part of Idlib province returned to control of the country's official authorities. The positions of the terrorists sharply moved north, which will make the Russian Khmeimim airbase safer from unexpected attacks by militants that previously came with enviable regularity. The parties agreed to create a security corridor on the M4 highway (6 km north and south of the highway), which will be jointly patrolled by Turkish and Russian military.

In general, this is an intermediate success. But victory is still far away. President Bashar al-Assad, inspired by victories, is eager for battle:

We do not forget about the Turks who are occupying the northern part of the Syrian territory. If they don't leave as a result political negotiations, they will have to be driven out by force. And we will do this. This is also our national duty as Syrians.

The Turks in the north of the SAR have their own interests, which they are ready to defend with military force. Ankara went to lose half of Idlib, but she does not intend to retreat further, meeting government troops with artillery, MLRS and strike drones. Thousands of groups of armed militants who somehow will need to be taken under control have not disappeared.

If you call a spade a spade, Ankara, Damascus and Moscow took a break, time for a break. The problems themselves have not gone away, just their resolution has been postponed to a later period.

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Sapsan136

+4

6 March 2020 12: 27

In other words, no Tsushima, which Mr. Marzhetsky recently shouted about, Turkey did not suit Russia, and the USA, which he scared us, did not rush to fight against Russia on the side of Turkey. The Turks and their bandits suffered losses and were forced to retreat. Of the 10 latest and very expensive ANKA-C strike drones available in the Turkish Air Force, 6 were lost in battles ... there are serious losses in tank units, including among the M-60 Sabra modernized with the help of Israel and Ukraine, equipped with an active system Protection Barrier, Ukrainian production.
1. Arkharov
  
  -5
  
  6 March 2020 12: 38
  
  We started again about "Sabra". We figured it out for a long time. Look at the photo, the tank is intact, the protection just worked, shredding the attachments on one side. And the video of the work on the Syrian technology, it's horror, I was already scared while watching. Just like kittens ...
  1. Sapsan136
    
    +3
    
    6 March 2020 12: 43
    
    Well, yes, but didn’t you feel scared from the photo with Turkish Leopards-2A4 (the best tanks of the Turkish army), with towers torn off by an explosion of ammunition and burnt out by elite Turkish crews? But in vain! The fact that the ammunition did not detonate allows you to claim that Sabra survived ... Well, well ... Let's see what next ... There are other videos and photos where the Sabra tanks were less fortunate and they were torn to pieces.
    1. Arkharov
      
      -4
      
      6 March 2020 12: 45
      
      Are there absolutely invulnerable tanks? What do you want to prove at all?
    2. The comment was deleted.
      1. Sapsan136
        
        +5
        
        6 March 2020 12: 48
        
        And I said ALL a long time ago. By its characteristics, Sabra is inferior even to the latest T-55 models equipped with active armor and capable of firing an anti-tank missile through the barrel of a gun ... Turkish scrap metal will not be able to compete with newer technology.
Marzhecki

-3

6 March 2020 13: 17

Quote: Sapsan136
In other words, no Tsushima, which Mr. Marzhetsky recently shouted about, Turkey did not suit Russia, and the USA, with which he scared us, did not rush to fight against Russia on the side of Turkey ... T

You are acting like a little boy. Reread the article about "Tsushima" and try to understand what exactly is written there. If you can.
1. Sapsan136
  
  +5
  
  6 March 2020 13: 44
  
  You wrote an article about Tsushima like a thimble. The title is about Turkey, and the UAG of the USA and several frigates of the Russian Federation in the Mediterranean Sea began to compare, even without really knowing the characteristics of these frigates. Moreover, this article is not the first, in the spirit of EVERYTHING, TURKEY HAS ALREADY BEEN STRONGER OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND WILL BREAK THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ... Your articles are more and more reminiscent of trolling, and, as you already wrote, I’m not the only one who comes to the conclusion that the team works under your nickname some Echo of Moscow ... or Rain ...
2. boriz
  
  +2
  
  6 March 2020 21: 38
  
  Everything is quite clear there. In terms of arithmetic. But neither Turkey nor the United States will climb into the war with the Russian Federation. All of these AUG movements are a demonstration for internal use. Trump himself can say: I scared the Russian Federation and they stopped.
  The Turks simply will not want to be left without tourists and without the sale of tomatoes. The season is approaching. Ours does not cost anything to close tourism and trade just under the guise of a coronavirus. They have an economy. In addition, the military is extremely dissatisfied with the prospect of war. Whatever happens. When discussing the exacerbation in Syria, everyone saw the fight in the Turkish parliament.
  
  https://ria.ru/20200304/1568167498.html
  
  Verkhovna Rada rests.
  And the United States remembers well that we, just in the south, are on combat duty on the MiG-31 with daggers. If they amicably fly out, refuel, then at one go the AUG will be left without an aircraft carrier, cruisers and destroyers. Probably not everyone will drown, but they will completely forget about the war. But frigates and from the mooring wall do not need to depart. What a distance there is! And what happens to the American Kyrgyz Republic - everyone has seen and remembered.
  So do not dramatize, not zero years, thank God.
Marzhecki

-3

6 March 2020 15: 25

Quote: Sapsan136
Your articles are more and more reminiscent of trolling, and, as you already wrote, I’m not the only one who comes to the conclusion that under your nickname a team works from some Echo of Moscow ... or Rain ...

You are a short-sighted person if you come to such dubious conclusions. On Rain and Echo liberals work. I am a man of diametrically opposed left-wing views, which is clearly evident from all my previous publications.
And the fact that you do not like the fact that I do reviews that are unpleasant in content, your complaints are not addressed to: I didn’t ditch our fleet and economy. There is nothing to blame the mirror if it gives an ugly reflection.
1. Sapsan136
  
  +2
  
  6 March 2020 15: 46
  
  Mr. good, if you do not understand the difference between the Turkish Navy and the US Navy, do not write more of your articles. Raise rabbits or something ...
boriz

+2

6 March 2020 21: 11

As always, Putin's humor is all right. Notably, he trolled the Sultan. Mesut Hakki, adviser to Turkish President Recep Erdogan (he is also a member of the Committee on Security and Foreign Policy under the President of Turkey), just out of his great mind, gave out that “Turkey has fought wars with Russia 16 times. And is ready, if necessary, to join into a new war ". Many media outlets reacted to this by recalling well-known facts from history.
But Putin received Erdogan (of course, by pure chance) in the Kremlin, in the white room, where on the mantelpiece, just between them stood an old clock with a sculptural group depicting the cavalrymen who defeated the Turks in the war of 1877-1878. And from the corner of the hall to the back of the head, Erdogan looked at a large sculpture of Catherine II, who took the Crimea from Turkey and, in general, defeated the Turks 11 times.
For some reason we didn’t notice this, but in Ukraine they appreciated it.

https://strana.ua/news/253442-o-chem-dohovorilis-putin-i-erdohan-po-sirii.html

Erdogan, in a hurry, probably did not notice this, but then he was probably told ...
And I really like Putin’s manner of moving in small, but progressive movements. In the past, it was often common for Russia to swipe at once for a big one, but fail. Take the same war of 1877-1878. The troops almost reached Constantinople, but Russia, in the end, received nothing. Our ally, Bulgaria, was squeezed and they constantly remember this, between Bulgaria and Russia, the anti-Russian state of Romania (which was never there) was wedged. That is, the strategic situation from this victory even worsened.
Well, the Turks made a mess, for Erdogan it cost 1600 sq. Km of Idlib, two strategic routes, etc. March 5, these results are recorded. In the next mess some more ...
123

+2

6 March 2020 21: 51

Everything, there will be no war. Till. They squeezed out a piece, the barmalei thinned out, a smoke break, we are waiting for the next cycle, but for now .... there is no time to butt with the Turks, a feast on the nose. The female part of the audience with the upcoming!
1. boriz
  
  +1
  
  6 March 2020 22: 02
  
  A beautiful SCS weapon. Balanced, aesthetically pleasing. And not only in our honor guard use.
  Well, in the hands of such girls ...
  1. 123
    
    0
    
    7 March 2020 00: 40
    
    All the same, a beautiful SCS weapon. Balanced, aesthetically pleasing. And not only in our honor guard use.
    Well, in the hands of such girls ...
    
    SCS is a good thing, but as far as I remember, there the center of gravity is slightly shifted, not very suitable for "acrobatics". I could be wrong, I held it in my hands ten years ago, and then it was already a civilian version, already without a bayonet.
    And the girls are well done definitely.
Bakht

+4

6 March 2020 23: 58

It's good that sometimes there is time to read what they write. I will give a link to the article, and then you can see what happened. The most interesting thing is that the article is dated the end of December 2019. Highly recommend. And then much in this winter campaign will become clear.

Sasapost (Egypt): M4 and M5 - the secret of the routes for which Russia launched five bloody operations last month

https://inosmi.ru/military/20191231/246554164.html

Today, the M1 and M5 tracks are in Assad’s hands. The M4 highway should be under the joint control of Russia and Turkey. Consequently, the objectives of the operation are not fully achieved. Of interest is a map with a safety zone around the track. 6 km in both directions. Given the lack of heavy artillery among the militants, this should guarantee security.

Wangem. Assad’s army suffered losses. She needs to regroup and replenish. And also gain a foothold on the M5 highway. This is the area of Sarakib. Barmalei will not calm down, especially since they did not sign anything. So the fighting will continue. Most likely, by the summer. Barmaleev will be pressed north away from the tracks. Does Erdogan intervene again - that’s where the intrigue is. So far, he has passed almost all points. I only bargained for joint patrols along the M4 highway.
1. 123
  
  +1
  
  7 March 2020 01: 58
  
  Thanks for the link. I read ... there is a rational grain, although there is an oriental flavor, it all comes down to - to take the track and trade, trade, trade. The author's passion for commerce obscures his eyes, in fact, this is all that interests him. All other "showdowns" are considered from the perspective of who controls the checkpoint and interferes with trade or not. And all his predictions are obvious.
  There is no easy solution to the Idlib problem. The complexity of the situation is due to the fact that all the "cream of society" was brought there, like into a cesspool. The war in Syria is specific, the "warriors of jihad" are accustomed to comfort and family coziness. They travel in caravans with their wives and children, and since power outages are not uncommon, there is not much entertainment, the birth rate is high, and there may be several wives. In general, the "camp" turns out to be of decent size. Grinding all this together with women and children with air bombs and missiles is not in our tradition. Therefore, they were "gently" taken under their white little hands and with all politeness were escorted to the "Idlib Titanic", and they began to systematically work to reduce the livestock. The density of the population has increased, the struggle for territory, resources and spheres of influence has intensified, in general, one cannot argue against the law of nature. They pushed their foreheads against locals and visitors, moderate and inapplicable, and so on, and in every possible way helped them in this noble cause. Those who escaped from other regions of the country were shot as cowards and traitors. "Unknown shooters" appeared, "elusive avengers" shot the ringleaders, they naturally thought of their neighbors, and the land was generously fertilized with the blood and flesh of bearded "children".
  This approach works, but it has its drawbacks. First, it takes a long time. Secondly, there is a side effect. Since the competition for a place in the sun has intensified, aggressiveness has grown on the outer perimeter, the Basmachi did not want to gnaw only their own kind, besides, the army, sitting idle for a long time, decomposes, seething energy was sent to the front, The excess "biomass" was stupidly utilized the fight. Hence all these attacks, attacks on Khmeimim and so on. After all, sponsors somehow need to be explained where their money is spent.
  As a result, the situation escalated, the Basmachi were helped with the de-population and squeezed out part of the territory, thereby reducing the food supply. A little time will pass and the cycle will repeat. They are squeezed like a boa constrictor, with each exhalation, the pressure intensifies and is no longer released back.
  Well, the author's "predictions" for the summer exacerbation are mostly obvious to the point of banality. The basis of striking power is aviation, and no matter what they say about all-weather, it is much easier and more efficient to work in a clear sky.
  Spring is near, the Rooks will arrive soon. Something like this.
  1. Bakht
    
    +3
    
    7 March 2020 07: 57
    
    The value of this article is that, in principle, the whole winter campaign came down to a struggle for the tracks. And it was written BEFORE, not AFTER.
    The significance of the M4 highway lies in the fact that it leads to Tartus and Hmeimim. From other sources, it was reported that, in addition to shipping, BTA aircraft have landed in Khmeimim for the past two weeks. Almost one plane per day. Yes, and the BDKs are probably not empty. It is necessary to restore Aleppo, and these routes are vital. Serakib is the junction of these routes.
    On the other hand, I do not believe in the sincerity of Erdogan. The full text of Assad’s interview is in the press. He correctly estimates Erdogan. And along the way, does not say anything about the autonomy of the Kurds. In general, no one talks about the autonomy of the Kurds. Neither Syria, nor Iran, nor Turkey. In fact, they have autonomy only in Iraq. And which side will they be on? Even if the Americans throw them again ....
    1. 123
      
      +1
      
      7 March 2020 10: 42
      
      Of course, you are right, I meant that the importance of highways is much wider, and the horizons of the author are limited by a passion for trade. It’s hard for me to imagine that, say, at a meeting on the situation in Syria, something like this would sound:
      
      Sergey Kuzhugetovich, when you finally have control over the M5 highway, I really want to establish trade between Turkey and Jordan.
      
      As for Erdogan’s sincerity, you shouldn’t rely on her, but you still have to agree, it’s all temporary.
      Do you mean this Assad interview?
      
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hN27VGkpFP4&t=298s
      
      I think that the Kurds will not see autonomy, and no one around them is interested in the formation of "Kurdistan". The USA simply uses them for their own purposes.
      1. Bakht
        
        +4
        
        7 March 2020 15: 55
        
        An author can write about trade. But here already noticed. Motorways are of great importance for military operations. And their unlocking significantly strengthens Assad’s military position. In any case, trade is hardly going through Syria now. But communications are militarily important. Pay attention to the arrangements in Moscow. This is mainly about freeways.
    2. boriz
      
      +2
      
      7 March 2020 11: 51
      
      Of course, nobody speaks about the autonomy of the Kurds. They are used as a scarecrow. It’s not their destiny to become independent. So they will fight for independence. So that no one would like to lay pipes of their Qatar and KSA.
      And the routes are now primarily of military importance. The Egyptians are still warriors, they would only trade. I remember the stories of retired men in garages, how they grabbed them by their underpants and dragged them back into the control room radars and air defense systems with shouts: "Where from .... and who will defend the Motherland !?" In the same situations in Vietnam, the locals during the raids became a wall behind the backs of our specialists. To the question: "What are you doing?" - answered, - you know how to shoot from it, but we - no. They will kill you - who will shoot at the planes? "The men, directly, with a tear in their voice, told about this.
      Wars have long been going on, to a large extent, around roads. Perhaps the most eloquent example is the map of the battle of Moscow at the time of the maximum advance of the Germans to the east. The Germans reached Tula, to the railway station. Moscow-Tula, bypassed Tula from the south and approached the same train. from the east, but neither Tulu nor railway did not take. This appendix looks very eloquent on the map.
gorenina91

-3

7 March 2020 01: 13

Negotiations in Moscow: Putin managed to “push through” Erdogan?

- To my great regret, Assad did not take advantage of the time of negotiations in Moscow ... - it was necessary to bring down all the weak firepower in this period of time for both the militants and the Turks ...
- And now:

President Bashar al-Assad, inspired by victories, is eager for battle:

And now it's too late to "rush into battle" ... - worthless for Russia and for Assad, another "patrolling corridor" has taken place ... - and this, in fact ... - is the "land Tsushima" for both Russia and Syria in general ... - Erdogan won again in a hopeless situation for him ... - well done ... - there is nothing to say ... - "came - shook hands - won" ... - It's so easy ... - easily and simply "made" our guarantor ...
- I watched a video here, where "Training of girls of the honor guard" ... - Damn ... - why did they recruit such old aunts ... - No, well, really ... - couldn't, perhaps, dial more "younger female demonstrativeness" ... - Damn .... - Russia has already become impoverished ...
- Yes, and more ... - Personally, I give the author "Sergey Marzhetskiy" another "plus" .... - But really ... - I don't see something I do not see in response "gesture of friendly disposition, expressed by reciprocal compensation ... "...
- I am not going to comment on the "conclusions" of this ... - But for the author it looks, at least ... - not far-sighted ...
1. plabu
  
  -1
  
  7 March 2020 06: 25
  
  Quote: gorenina91
  ... - I watched a video here, where "Training of girls of the guard of honor" ... - Damn ... - why did they recruit such old aunts ... - No, well, really ... - couldn't, perhaps , dial more "younger female demonstrativeness" ... - Damn .... - Russia has already become impoverished ...
  
  Well, nevertheless they hit politics and stuff, they sit and write posts ...
2. boriz
  
  +1
  
  7 March 2020 11: 55
  
  Unfortunately, Assad did not use the time of negotiations in Moscow.
  
  Read the "Reporter" carefully and you will be happy.
  
  https://topcor.ru/13469-sirijskaja-armija-otodvinula-liniju-fronta-ot-sarakiba-nakanune-peremirija-v-idlibe.html
  
  What Assad could have done. Not dumber than you. And during the negotiations - a bad taste.
Marzhecki

-5

7 March 2020 07: 28

Quote: Sapsan136
Mr. good, if you do not understand the difference between the Turkish Navy and the US Navy, do not write more of your articles. Raise rabbits or something ...

Once again, I suggest you grow up.
1. bear040
  
  +5
  
  7 March 2020 10: 14
  
  What they offered you, you have read more than once. I join these offers. Alexander, of course, is not the Lord God, but still a career officer with two higher educations, and you better take up farming, apparently this is your profile.
Marzhecki

-4

7 March 2020 07: 34

Quote: gorenina91
Personally, I give the author "Sergey Marzhetskiy" another "plus" .... - But, really ... - I don't see something I do not see response "gesture of friendly disposition, expressed by reciprocal compensation ..." ...
- I am not going to comment on the "conclusions" of this ... - But for the author it looks, at least ... - not far-sighted ...

Thank you for your kind words. It’s just useless for some people to explain something. But you still have to try to do this, getting rudeness and aggression in response. True, by doing so they show their personal level.
And yes, I’m the author alone, no collective behind a pseudonym, some local trolls write nonsense, while others repeat these nonsense after them.
PS I will try from now on to participate in discussions less, this is an ungrateful thing.
1. 123
  
  0
  
  7 March 2020 17: 09
  
  From now on I will try to participate less in discussions, this is an ungrateful matter.
  
  Try not to create a reason for such discussions. For I completely agree with the first paragraph.
  
  It’s just useless for some people to explain something. But you still have to try to do this, getting rudeness and aggression in response. True, by doing so they show their personal level.
  
  So try where to go.