Why Belarus billed Russia $ 2 billion


Despite some lull in the information field, the “oil war” between Minsk and Moscow continues. In just six months, the next presidential election will be held in Belarus. For re-election, Alexander Lukashenko needs a convincing victory and guarantees that his fellow citizens’s standard of living will not decline. Therefore, Minsk laid out on the table "ace of trump": claims for damage from "dirty" Russian oil in the amount of $ 2 billion.


Recall that last spring, raw materials contaminated with organochlorine compounds via the Druzhba pipeline fell to Belarusian refineries, damaging expensive equipment, as well as to other countries - Ukraine, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. Unfortunately, this is the fault of the Russian side, which itself extremely unsuccessfully framed in the framework of a trade dispute with Minsk. The key question is, how accurate are the estimates of the cost of damage given by the Belarusian authorities?

President Lukashenko said last year that his country’s damage amounted to “hundreds of millions of dollars.” The RF Ministry of Energy then estimated it much more modest: a little less than $ 100 million. Later, Hungary and Poland received compensation of $ 15 per barrel of contaminated oil. Minsk for its 1,2 million tons of low-quality raw materials can count on 132 million dollars. From what ceiling did the figure of 2 billion dollars come from?

Political analyst Dmitry Bolkunets believes that the Belarusian authorities generously piled up and rounded up all their losses, real and imaginary, presenting them to Russia:

The minister nevertheless had in mind the total losses due to dirty oil from Russia and restrictions on oil supplies to Belarus for refining.

That is, in Minsk they took into account both the lost profits from the tax maneuver conducted by Moscow in the oil industry and “dirty oil”, and then they attributed “extra digits”. For example, last year 1,4 million tons of petroleum products not supplied by Belarus last year caused losses of $ 692 million. 2 billion dollars does not work in any way. How then to understand this "entertaining arithmetic"?

In fact, everything is pretty primitive: Minsk is playing sneakily on raising rates. Presidential elections are approaching, and many Belarusians are starting to get tired of their permanent leader, and even in Moscow they are already looking displeased at Lukashenko, who is breaking the Union State project. Alexander Grigorievich needs to show his voters a “miracle”, having achieved victory in the “oil war” before the summer. For this he spares no money.

For example, on the issue of oil supplies, he has already agreed on cooperation with Ukraine and Azerbaijan. The first batch of hydrocarbons with a total volume of 160 tons will soon arrive through the Odessa-Brody pipeline. Economic there is not much expediency in this, but it’s a hello to Moscow. Minsk also hijacked Safmar Mikhail Gutseriev to sell “black gold” without a premium. It probably worked out that the oligarch had a lot of assets in Belarus. In addition to the structure of Gutseriev, another five Russian companies announced their desire to work in the Belarusian market on the same conditions. Experts suggest that Minsk might be interested in their tax benefits or access to the privatization of refineries or other assets.

In general, President Lukashenko has shown increasing activity in diversifying sources of oil production. It should be noted that the Kremlin has recently “given up on slack” by making an “unexpected proposal” to compensate for part of the losses of Belarus. One gets the impression that in Minsk they considered this a manifestation of weakness, and therefore rolled out an account for "dirty oil" at once by $ 2 billion.
Used photos: kremlin.ru
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  1. 123 Online
    123 (123) 27 February 2020 12: 25
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    In fact, everything is pretty primitive: Minsk is playing sneakily on raising rates. Presidential elections are approaching, and many Belarusians are starting to get tired of their permanent leader, and even in Moscow they are already looking displeased at Lukashenko, who is breaking the Union State project. Alexander Grigorievich needs to show his voters a “miracle”, having achieved victory in the “oil war” before the summer. For this he spares no money.

    This is only part of the truth. Still more primitive, serious economic problems are coming, industrial enterprises are stopping and reducing production, the prospects for agriculture are foggy. There is no longer any time for victory in the "oil war", it’s necessary to explain to the elections that Father Butk — he is like Rafik, in the sense - is not to blame for anything. And who will be to blame? Look at the Ukrainian experience, they know for sure who is guilty of all troubles winked

    In general, President Lukashenko has shown increasing activity in diversifying sources of oil production.

    This is only the tip of the iceberg, as I understand it, they plan to develop the railway network in the direction of Lithuania-Ukraine.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 February 2020 18: 56
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    Ha. Old Man skillfully traded. Put on 2 lard, converge on 500 lyam, for example.
    More than 132 lyamas from the article.

    And everyone will declare a great victory.
  3. Caretaker Offline
    Caretaker (Leonid) 27 February 2020 20: 04
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    ... Minsk hijacked Safmar Mikhail Gutseriev to sell "black gold" without a premium ...

    Why "catch" the co-owner of the Belarusian refineries and gas stations? Gutseriev will sell oil to "his" companies.

    In addition to the structure of Gutseriev, another five Russian companies announced their desire to work in the Belarusian market on the same conditions.

    If 6 (six) Russian companies are ready to supply oil to Belarus on conditions acceptable to both parties, then what is the problem? What difference does it make to which Russian companies will sell oil to Belarusian companies, or do you have special preferences?
    The most sensible decision would be to allow interested Russian companies to enter the Druzhba pipeline and not force Russian companies seek roundabout ways to supply oil to Belarus through Ukraine or the Baltic states.
    Why is the pipe available for expensive oil, but closed for affordable? Why are some Russian companies better / worse than others?
    Why sponsor hostile regimes to the detriment of Russian and Belarusian interests, who benefits?
  4. Dust Offline
    Dust (Sergei) 27 February 2020 23: 53
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    It is interesting, if Russia refuses Belarusian goods, what will happen to the economy of Belarus?
  5. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 28 February 2020 07: 25
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    Quote: Caretaker
    If 6 (six) Russian companies are ready to supply oil to Belarus on conditions acceptable to both parties, then what is the problem? What difference does it make to which Russian companies will sell oil to Belarusian companies, or do you have special preferences?

    Personally, I do not have anything against Belarus and its people, on the contrary, I wish them good. My paternal ancestors from there, from near Minsk.
    Another issue is the policy of A. Lukashenko, which impedes the necessary integration processes. If anything, I understand his reasons, but I look at the matter from the bell tower of Russia's interests.
    1. Caretaker Offline
      Caretaker (Leonid) 28 February 2020 19: 45
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      Quote: Marzhetsky
      ... I look at business from the bell tower of Russia's interests

      It seems that you mistakenly entered the territory of a private household, the owners of which control the oil pipe, and look from their bell tower. Interests of this controlling pipe Russian groups do not coincide with group interests Russian oil suppliers (6 companies) that do not have free access to the pipe.
      Why did you decide that a company blocking the supply of oil by other Russian companies to Belarus unilaterally represents Russia's interests?
      Moreover, according to Lukashenko, oil is sold to Poland cheaper than offered to Belarus.
      How would you rate this fact “from your bell tower”? In whose interests is it?
      By the way, judging by the prices at Russian gas stations, problems not only with Belarus arise with Russian monopolists.

      Quote: Marzhetsky
      ... A. Lukashenko’s policy, which impedes the necessary integration processes. ...

      Regarding the "integration processes," Lukashenko rightly noted that the agreements were not implemented even within the framework of the EAEU. Kazakhstan does not have the opportunity to supply oil to Belarus through the pipeline system of the Russian Federation.
      State integration programs are being implemented, but as soon as it comes to Russian monopolists, problems arise.
  6. commbatant Offline
    commbatant (Sergei) 2 March 2020 22: 19
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    Minsk for its 1,2 million tons of low-quality raw materials can count on 132 million dollars. From what ceiling did the figure of 2 billion dollars come from?

    International arbitration will judge everything ....
    Belarus has nothing to lose along the way, it is the BIGest Russian borrower anyway, it’s time for the Russian Federation to take an inventory of Belarus’s debt to the Russian Federation, all the same, Belarus is no different from other countries in the world, pretending to be the most faithful ally .... of the Russian Federation ... delaying the hour collection of receivables from RB ...