The alignment is not in favor of Moscow: is it possible to avoid the Russo-Turkish war in Syria


The likelihood of a direct clash between Russia and Turkey in northern Syria has increased dramatically, as noted in the United States and NATO bloc as a whole. President Erdogan, who gathered a very significant military group in Idlib, said that a new military operation in the region is only a matter of time. Is it possible to avoid the 13th Russo-Turkish war?


John Hoffman, Pentagon spokesman, commented on the situation in the north of the SAR as follows:

We are witnessing how Russia and Turkey are approaching a larger conflict in the area.

Indeed, the offensive activity of the Syrians, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, helped to significantly advance the liberation of Idlib territory from terrorist groups. But then the allies ran into the national interests of Turkey, which drove about 7 thousand of its troops to the north of the province with 2 thousand units of combat equipment. The Turks handed out MANPADS to their "manual" militants, which had already successfully worked against Syrian helicopters twice.

President Erdogan is directly threatening to shoot down “any planes” over Idlib, alluding to the Russians. Given that Turkish aircraft calmly shot down our Su-24 several years ago, Ankara’s threats should be taken very seriously. Going further along Idlib means the beginning of hostilities already with the regular army, which is considered the second most powerful in NATO after the American one, and also has a convenient logistic supply shoulder. By the way, in this matter, our military contingent in the SAR depends directly on the goodwill of Turkey, with which we, as it were, need to prepare to fight.

The alignment, frankly, in favor of Russia is not very good. However, it is still necessary to solve something. What could be the options for breaking the deadlock if the power scenario does not seem reasonable?

To reach an acceptable compromise, it will be necessary to take into account the objective interests of Turkey, about which we are in detail told earlier. First, Ankara needs a security belt from the Syrian Kurds, which are considered one of the threats to the national security of this country. Secondly, the Turks somehow need to resolve the issue with millions of Syrian refugees, to accept and arrange which they have neither the opportunity nor the desire. Thirdly, speaking about Syria, it is necessary to remember about another conflict, already in Libya, where Ankara and Moscow are also participating from different sides.

During the negotiations, an agreement can be reached on the next division of the north of the SAR and Libya into spheres of influence. So, in Libya, Turkey supports the Government of National Accord Faiz Saraj. Despite the big name, the PNS controls no more than 10% of the country's territory and actually does not have a regular army. The Libyan national army of Khalifa Haftar has real power, but even it was not enough to capture the capital of Tripoli.

It is believed that Moscow is behind the Field Marshal behind the scenes, but the problem is that it is far from being alone and not at the very first roles, frankly. Even if Haftar wins, there is a good chance that the main “buns" will go to other LNA sponsors. Also, the objective reality is that the Turkish regular army, if necessary, can disperse the semi-guerrilla desert hordes of Haftar.

It will sound cynical, but it would be beneficial for Russia to separately agree with Turkey on dividing Libya into its spheres of influence, in return also receiving significant concessions from Syria to Ankara. Along the beaten track, you can create "Separate areas of Idlib and Aleppo governorates with special status", where refugees will receive Syrian refugees, as well as opposition members who are not on the way with the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Let Turkey take them for its maintenance, and international peacekeepers who will be obliged to prevent provocations and excesses are introduced on the line of demarcation. Further elections, amnesty, etc. according to the "known" recipe.

In order to accelerate Ankara’s adoption of such a scenario, she can be hinted that otherwise the Kurds will be supported already in Turkey itself, as well as political opponents of President Erdogan. Well, not only did he flirt with the Crimean Tatars, right? It will be a bad world, but it is better than a good war between Russia and Turkey.
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  1. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 20 February 2020 13: 53
    +1
    hi The recipe for a political decision "from Sergei Marzhetsky" seems to me the most reasonable in the current "scenario"! yes
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 20 February 2020 13: 54
    0
    In addition to the article, I would NOW again cut off Turkish tourism. By this, Russia will show its DECISION in defending its interests and allies. Or will we again wait for the Turks to take down our plane? But for me - to come to an agreement with the OCCUPIERS is somehow shameful!
    1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 20 February 2020 15: 38
      +5
      To begin with, it was not worth at least arming the Turks, but the giraffe is large, he knows better.
  3. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 20 February 2020 14: 08
    -4
    The alignment is not in favor of Moscow: is it possible to avoid the Russo-Turkish war in Syria

    - Yes, how much I have to say personally about the same thing ... - Russia needs serious military formations in Syria ... - tank and mechanized divisions; two or three regiments of bomber and fighter aviation; very serious deployed air defense system; arsenals of ammunition and weapons and ... and (I do not want to repeat myself again), etc ... a whole military district or fortified area ... - The Russian base Khmeimim is too weak and at any time any of the enemies can attack it and shoot ...
    - When all this appears in Syria - then all things will go right at once ... - and the Turks will immediately hold their tail, and the Israelis will stop their shelling ... - This will become for Russia a "small victorious war" .. - Although in real life the Russian troops will not have to shoot ... - this is the only way to avoid the "Russian-Turkish war in Syria" - everyone (who needs it) will understand that jokes with Russia are bad ...
    - Russia will have to send and deploy a huge military contingent in Syria anyway ... - That should have been done yesterday ...
    1. Binder Offline Binder
      Binder (Miron) 20 February 2020 14: 23
      -3
      Quote: gorenina91
      ... then all things will go right away at once ... - and the Turks will immediately squeeze their tail, and the Israelis will stop their shelling

      You are a naive girl, right young peony Erka. laughing Do you really think that the Turks, or especially the Israelis, will be scared? Yes, the Turks simply, in accordance with international agreements, would block the straits for the Russian fleet and that’s all, Russian bases in Syria were covered with a copper basin, or something cooler ... The Kremlin dwarf overcame a particular jamb when he entered Syria, now it's time to answer.
      1. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 20 February 2020 15: 42
        0
        Yes, the Turks simply, in accordance with international agreements, will block the straits for the Russian fleet and that’s all, Russian bases in Syria were covered with a copper basin, and even more abruptly ...

        “That is why we need a whole Russian military district in Syria ... with arsenals, a whole network of underground storage facilities; entire repair and assembly complexes for servicing Russian equipment ...
        - And the Turks will never be able to "block the straits" for a more or less long period ... for this they will not have enough powers ... and funds ...
        - Yes, and Russia itself can easily block the Turkish Stream; freeze the construction of a nuclear power plant in Turkey and stop planting gratuitous loans to Turkey ... - And after all this, the jubilant Turkish population in two or three months will simply overthrow and trample Erdogan to dust ...
        - Yes, and what is the point of Turkey will block them (straits), if in Syria, in their rear there will already be a whole Russian fortified area with all the necessary infrastructure ...
        - As for the Kremlin dwarf ... - yes ... - here personally I can’t disagree ... - I have already written more than once that Russia started an adventure .. when it got into Syria and "didn’t put on that horse "...
        - But today for Russia in Syria, the "point of no return" has already been passed and tough radical actions are needed ... - But, unfortunately, today's ... - soft, compliant and ingratiating policy of the Kremlin towards Turkey is very, very destructive for Russia. ..
        1. Binder Offline Binder
          Binder (Miron) 20 February 2020 18: 50
          +1
          Quote: gorenina91
          ... therefore, we need a whole Russian military district in Syria ... with arsenals, a whole network of underground storage facilities; entire repair and assembly complexes for servicing Russian equipment ...

          Supplying such a large group of troops is a difficult and very expensive task for which Russia today simply does not have the means, even if the retirement age is increased to 80 years. And if the Turks block the straits for Russian ships, close their airspace, then this task will be completely impossible. The Turks understand this and therefore feel confident, they understand this in the Kremlin. As for the economic leverage over Ankara, they are not very effective. Tourists to Turkey go far not only from Russia, Turks also sell vegetables and fruits not only to Russians, so their losses in this case will not be critical.
          And most importantly - a strong, numerous, armed with modern weapons and well-trained Turkish army, which, in essence, will fight at its doorstep - these are not “timid Georgians” or APUs, this is an enemy of a different kind ...
      2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
        rotkiv04 (Victor) 20 February 2020 15: 43
        +5
        As for the dwarf, you at least disrespectfully said that ... but he has more stocks than merit. What can be required of a person if, in essence, he is a liberal and defender of the national bourgeoisie, and not his own people. This is Yeltsin, only sober.
        1. Binder Offline Binder
          Binder (Miron) 20 February 2020 18: 32
          0
          Quote: rotkiv04
          As for the dwarf, you at least disrespectfully said that

          Calling a famous character a dwarf, I meant not so much the growth of this gentleman in centimeters, but his insignificance, as a politician and leader of a large state. And so, in fact, history knows many large figures whose growth was even smaller. You don’t have to go far for examples - I.V. Stalin was lower than GDP, but none of his most fierce opponents could call him a dwarf, he simply didn’t turn his tongue, the scale of his personality was different ...
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 20 February 2020 15: 33
    -3
    The puzzle does not fit. no

    During the negotiations, an agreement can be reached on the next division of the north of the SAR and Libya into spheres of influence.

    To get started in Libya:

    It will sound cynical, but it would be beneficial for Russia to separately agree with Turkey on dividing Libya into its spheres of influence, in return also receiving significant concessions from Syria to Ankara.

    But at the same time -

    It is believed that Moscow is behind the Field Marshal behind the scenes, but the problem is that it is far from being alone and not at the very first roles, frankly. Even if Haftar wins, there is a good chance that the main “buns" will go to other LNA sponsors.

    Russia does not have such a strong influence on Haftar to force him to divide the spheres of influence with Turkey. The motivation for the rest of the "desert generalissimo" sponsors to conclude such an agreement is extremely doubtful. For them, no concessions to the Turks in Idlib are interesting, but rather the opposite. And the ability of the Turks to disperse local partisans is doubtful, how do they fundamentally differ from the Kurds? And they have been chasing them for several decades. Without control over the transportation of oil, the "legitimate" government is doomed, there is no oil - no money, the "chieftain without a gold reserve" will not last long. The financial content will hang on the Turks, and the agreement on the shelf, in which case, the new government does not recognize. In the meantime, they will drive the Bedouins through the desert, the Kurds will live much more comfortably, who knows, suddenly they decide to activate, and they will decide, they will help them with this. yes
    We turn to Idlib, it is much more important for the Turks, if Saraj is a local analogue of our Shevardnadze in Libya, and Erdogan just needs a piece of the shelf from him, then with Idlib everything is much more complicated. The local bearded "children" were officially announced brothers who need to be protected from the "bloody dictator", they won’t be able to exchange them for the Libyan shelf, no one will understand the house of the sultan. request And for them it is, so to speak, “post-Ottoman” territory and it has certain types. In addition, the announcement of the creation of "territories with special status" categorically does not suit the Syrians. Nobody needs peacekeepers there, and there are no candidates for this role on the horizon. For Assad, this means recognizing the conflict as a civil war, and not as a fight against terrorism.
    In general, most likely, the triumphal capture of Idlib is not yet foreseen, it is now turning into an analogue of Aleppo, now it will "butt" in its vicinity. The aureole of the "bearded man", therefore, the economic basis, is declining. The territories will remain under the control of those who now occupy them. The front will soon stabilize and everything will start again, pitting “spiders in the bank,” a slow but methodical reduction in the number of bearded men. They were not there for nothing that everyone was collected there, as on the Titanic. While an easy solution to the problem is not expected. Unless, of course, new circumstances arise or one of the parties does not aggravate the conflict.
    PS I hope I will be wrong and Idlib will be taken soon. yes
  5. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
    Observer2014 20 February 2020 18: 40
    +2
    The alignment is not in favor of Moscow: is it possible to avoid the Russo-Turkish war in Syria

    It is possible and easy. yes I personally would even for this garbage "war between Turkey and Russia" laughing did not pay attention. According to a number of military capabilities of Russia.
  6. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 20 February 2020 19: 18
    +4
    Russia has cruise missiles capable of covering any target in Turkey, but there will be nothing for the Turks to answer, so given that the United States is not eager to die under the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces’s nuclear warheads, the situation is not in Turkey’s favor ... Turkey has a large army but the armaments are outdated and almost all foreign-made ... If the Russian Federation in the event of a major war will arm its reservists T-72B, in the worst case T-72AV, then Turkey will have to equip its reserves with museum M-48A2S, with gasoline engines .. Turkish aviation has about 200 F-16s, large Most of them have F-16 unit 50 .... The Russian Air Force has about 250 Su-35s, Su-30s and MiG-29SMTs, and about 100 more Su-34 fighters capable of fighting the Su-27 on equal terms ... The Turkish Navy may encounter not only subsonic X-35 Uranus anti-ship missiles capable of carrying multipurpose Dryers, but also X-22 Storm supersonic missiles .... and the latest hypersonic anti-ship missiles ... In 2008, the Russian Federation successfully used experimental then the Su-34 ... Obviously, in the event of a conflict with Turkey, both hypersonic Daggers and the latest Su-57 will go into battle ... So there’s a chance yigrat from Russian war Turkey does not .. to attack the bases of the Russian Federation in the Russian Federation Syria will respond blow to bases in Turkey and Turkish troops in Syria .. not possible that tactical nuclear weapons to US ambitions to cool ...
    1. Nikolai Petrovich (Nikolai) 21 February 2020 09: 29
      -3
      You forget about the fifth article of the NATO charter. Military action against an alliance member is nothing more than suicide and madness. You can hit Idlib, but you can’t hit Turkey itself.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 21 February 2020 10: 38
        +2
        And you carefully read article 5 of the NATO charter ... There is no obligation to send someone to help the army, this is voluntary, and help, if any, can be limited to political support, or sending a dozen military instructors ... It is possible and necessary to beat Turkey, including in order to get rid of dangerous misconceptions in the USA, otherwise those who think that they can bomb Russia can appear there, and that will not answer ...