The invasion of Syria and the "Crimean rudeness": Russia and Turkey on the verge of breaking

The fate of the strategic partnership between Moscow and Ankara, apparently, hung in the balance. Literally over the past few days, a series of events has followed, each of which has a rather negative effect on relations between countries, and all of them in combination can completely lead to their complete breakdown. At the same time, it cannot be said that alarming signs, speaking of impending troubles, appeared only recently in the Russian-Turkish “horizon”.

The first "clouds" began to drag him in connection with the conflict situation in Libya, to the resolution of which the two states have practically diametrically opposed views. It would seem that the emerging conflict was resolved to the satisfaction of all. However, the current aggravation - already in the Syrian direction (and not only there) is unlikely to be so easily resolved. Where does it all go and how can it end?

Syrian break

I don’t know if Recep Erdogan had ever taken acting lessons, but if so, his mentors could have been proud of him. The pathos-tragic speeches of the Turkish president about the "martyrdom" of soldiers who died during the blow inflicted in Syria by government forces and the "suffering of civilians in Idlib", perhaps Stanislavsky himself would have applauded. At the same time, exclaiming about the “impossibility of continuing to endure such a situation”, the warlike leader somehow overlooks the fundamental fact that no one was waiting for his armed compatriots on Syrian soil and, moreover, did not invite him there. Unlike the Russian military, who arrived in the country at the official request of Damascus. Ankara in the territory of a neighboring sovereign state is trying to "force" to solve its own internal (seemingly) problems with the Kurdish opposition, which has not allowed it to live in peace for many years. The Turkish army found itself on foreign territory with the tacit consent of timidly squealing something condemning the "Olive Branch" for a long time unable to control anything of the "world community", as well as with the consent of the Russian side, quite rightly, as it seemed then, to reason that cooperation with descendants of the Janissaries rushing into battle will result in fewer problems than trying to stop them or expel them from Syria. It was not without difficulty that Moscow and Ankara managed to reach mutual understanding, establish joint patrols, and agree on other measures that would ultimately lead to a peaceful settlement, which the country so tormented by war was so necessary.

And now all this is crumbling. The Turkish army, continuing to claim that Damascus was aware of the presence of its troops on the territory of the attack, is already deliberately and aimedly pounding parts of the Syrian government army. Blood is pouring and the situation is approaching the point where our troops will have to respond adequately - especially if the information about the death of four officers of our special forces as a result of all these "showdowns" turns out to be true. It is extremely unlikely that Ankara would decide on an open military confrontation with Moscow or even Damascus (which, by and large, is almost the same). Rather, we are talking about another attempt by the Turks to "show their teeth" in response to the failure of their "blitzkrieg" in Libya. Russia, it must be admitted, has outplayed them in this direction, and very cunningly - with the involvement of the very “international community” and representatives of the European Union, with whom Ankara is forced to reckon after all. Attempts by Turkish expansion in Libya and the Mediterranean are by no means frustrated, but suspended quite seriously. In any case, the frantic offensive pace that Erdogan took, who urgently obtained parliament's approval of sending troops to Tripoli and even began to transfer these troops there, was pretty much lost. Clearly, the Russians interfered. It seems that rapidly and extremely aggressively escalating the situation in Syria, the Turkish side is preparing to arrange another bargain on the Libyan issue and present some new conditions to Moscow on it. This is, in general, the best option. Otherwise, you have to admit that Ankara has embarked on an armed confrontation with our country, which is so difficult and considerable economic I managed to avoid losses for myself in 2015.

Military assistance and "Crimean rudeness"

No less significant in the sense of the sharply negative changes taking place in relations between our countries is literally everything related to the visit of Recep Erdogan to Ukraine. The “Crimean Question” has always been for Ankara, by and large, continuing to consider these lands, if not their property, then at least the sphere of their vital interests, a sore subject. However, perhaps, the statements of the head of the Turkish state on her have never sounded so harsh, peremptory and defiant. Again “illegal annexation”, again “support for the territorial integrity” of Ukraine, which Erdogan in Kiev declared his strategic partner ... So you can agree on a lot - not without reason in the Kremlin, where they usually pretended not to hear the demarche about the Crimea, regularly heard from the mouth of Ankara officials, this time reacted very quickly. True, the words of Dmitry Peskov, who invited Erdogan to personally visit the peninsula and, so to speak, familiarize himself with the situation on the spot, were more a response to the lamentation of the Turkish leader about the alleged “oppression of the Crimean Tatars” than to the “annexation”, but this is a little better than nothing. But Kiev from such attacks was right on top of bliss. This is not surprising - during the current meeting, the Turkish president, striving, such a feeling, to annoy Moscow as much as possible, except that he showered his Ukrainian colleague with kisses. Promises and advances to Kiev from him sounded one more attractive than the other. Mostly in the corporate identity of the unforgettable Leni Golubkov: “We are not competitors, but partners!”

What are only statements about the free trade zone between Turkey and Ukraine, the agreement on which has already been worked out literally by 95%, if you believe the Ukrainian side and will be "just about" signed. In Zelensky’s dreams, this will increase commodity circulation between the countries to 10 billion (!), And the “non-fall” one will be covered by the “avalanche of investments”. Yes, getting the showman’s mentality and habits out of the president is not an easy task ... So far, Ankara’s main “investment” in Kiev is Erdogan’s promise to the president and defense minister of 36 million dollars that Turkey suddenly decided to give them “for military needs”. True, it was initially agreed that these funds the Ukrainian side will be able to spend on the purchase of arms and dual-use goods exclusively made in Turkey. But, according to the head of the Nezalezhnoy military department, it is also planned to “joint Ukrainian-Turkish production of high-precision anti-tank weapons, development of cooperation in the field of repair and operation of helicopters, cooperation in the field of counteraction to unmanned aircraft complexes, joint work on projects of transport aviation and training complexes, in particular, the supply of aircraft engines to Turkey. ” Nice list, agree. However, this is not all! The press service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also announces the prospects of "exchanging information about the naval situation in the Black Sea, as well as increasing air defense capabilities as part of a joint participation in the NATO program (Air Situational Data Exchange) with the armed forces of the Republic of Turkey." This is the number! We are Ankara - S-400, and she intends to "strengthen" the air defense of Ukraine. It seems to me alone that there is clearly something wrong here ?!

Washington will win

Honestly, the impression is beginning to appear that Turkey, having received from our country everything (or almost everything) that it could have at this stage, does not intend to pretend to be an ally and partner. She now has Ukraine as a partner ... The Triumphs have been set up and all that remains is to rejoice that the talk about the “transfer of technologies»These air defense systems turned out to be an empty phrase to the Turkish side, which, incidentally, was terribly offended in Ankara. I remember that some of the bright-eyed optimists proposed with them the Su-57 to jointly develop and produce! It’s just that this was not enough ... Turkey, as we see, began to actively accelerate the process of military-technical cooperation with the “uncoupling”, while perfectly understanding why and against whom it is arming it. There is also a Turkish stream, you say? So he is exactly that Turkish! And most of all, from its commissioning, so far, again, Ankara has won. She provided herself with gas with interest and even got at the same time such a coveted status of a transit country for Russian energy resources. Something tells us that in the future Gazprom will still face such attempts by the Turkish side to pump rights by “playing the trumpet”, so that the squeezed out Ukrainian “Naftogaz” in comparison with them will seem to our exporters a babble. But what about the future - already during Erdogan’s current visit to Kiev, he was discussing with might and main the issue of supplies to the “non-downland”, as was said, “Caspian gas through the corresponding connectors”. That is - through the TANAP gas pipeline. And there, you look, and Caspian gas will flow to Europe through the Ukrainian GTS. In exchange for the Russian ...

One cannot but mention yet another oddity, which so far few associate with a sharp aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations. As soon as they “cracked”, the Americans began to stir very actively in the same Syria. As far as we know, they not only no longer intend to leave the territory of this country, but also began to dig in there in a hurry, and in the most literal sense of the word. In the area of ​​the largest US military base in Syria, located in the vicinity of the Omar oil field, as well as in another similar facility, Tal Baidar, located in the north-west of Al-Hasaka province, intensive engineering work is being carried out, provided, by the way , Kurdish YPG formations who wanted to spit on all the threats of the Turks. In total, the presence of US Army personnel in Syria today is recorded at 11 military bases and points in the provinces of Al-Hasaka, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. Is this febrile activity coinciding with the actual collapse of the Russian-Turkish alliance? Who knows, but, in my opinion, is doubtful. Rather, the Americans are using the opportunity to gain strength. At the same time, there is another very vivid example of how Washington directly benefits from the seemingly "unacceptable" actions of Ankara for it. The other day, the Greek Parliament supported an agreement on military cooperation with the United States, in fact, turning this whole country into a Pentagon military base. In any case, the Americans, to this day having only one naval base in Cyprus there, can use any objects of the Greek defense infrastructure completely free. The reason for this decision is Turkey’s increased military activity, claiming the Mediterranean shelf in the area of ​​Cyprus, which the Greeks consider their own. As a result, in Athens they are already thinking about buying an F-35, and in the United States they are preparing to count the profits and are placing their UAVs at the bases there, from which they can be easily reached from the Crimea.

Whether the fragile alliance of Ankara and Moscow will come to an end now or all will again end with bidding and concessions is still unclear. However, the fact that Turkey was not and never will be, perhaps, never, is already completely obvious.
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  1. Mihail55 Offline Mihail55
    Mihail55 (Michael) 4 February 2020 09: 03
    Selling to a potential enemy natural resources and the latest air defense systems is the top of the prudence of Russia's foreign policy?
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 4 February 2020 09: 05
    In principle, this was to be expected. Who has brains in his head, and not the rectum, was constantly talking about this. But when the brains are busy selling the Motherland, there is no time to think about the consequences. And yet, nothing terrible has happened. You just need not be afraid to show your strength and most importantly - DECISION. Iran was not afraid! Moreover, Russia can do this with Syrian hands. Turkey occupier - have every right! Respect the strong and brave, and hucksters and traitors even despise the enemies.
    1. Rusa Offline Rusa
      Rusa 4 February 2020 15: 16
      Captured terrorists in Aleppo province have shown that their sponsors are Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Ankara attracts militants from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Syria.
      In fact, Erdogan is an accomplice of terrorists, like the United States, and Damascus and his allies are fighting against these terrorists.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 4 February 2020 09: 49
    It has always been a courage for the Turks to deceive the "infidels". Don't the Oriental experts know this? And if they do, then the decision-makers probably don't listen to them? Well, modern Ukraine will never let Russia live in peace. Russia supplies Ukraine with gas, oil, electricity, and Ukraine supplies Russia with water to Crimea in return. And the lack of water at the chemical plant in Armyansk threatens a man-made disaster and the destruction of Crimea as a resort. And there is no end to this relationship.
    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 4 February 2020 13: 56
      What Russia supplies Ukraine — it supplies NOT for free. And what kind of disaster are you talking about? Indeed, it has been repeatedly stated loudly that Crimea has solved the problem of water supply. And suddenly a disaster. What is that supposed to mean?
      1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 5 February 2020 11: 04
        Crimean reservoirs continue to grind. According to the regional State Committee for Water Management and Land Reclamation, only a third of the water remained in them. The total volume of all reservoirs, according to information at the end of January, was 96,9 million m³.
        1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
          Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 5 February 2020 15: 57
          So, it turns out that the Goblin has been lying all this time, that the problem of water in the Crimea has been solved? Now it turns out that the situation is catastrophic, and that Goblin will not be anything for this lie?
      2. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 5 February 2020 16: 53
        Get ready to pay for water from Russia to Ukraine, we are not required to supply you with water!
        1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
          Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 5 February 2020 17: 54
          I definitely won’t pay for water from Russia, because I do not live in Ukraine. But it’s interesting - when did Russia supply Ukraine with water? Maybe it was in your parallel universe?
          1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 5 February 2020 18: 44
            Look, from which rivers water flows into the Dnieper ... By the way, the Russian Federation itself does not have enough water, in the Don and Volga, and to supply water to Ukraine, screaming at every corner that is at war with Russia, and more precisely with the Russian people and Russian culture, more for nothing, Russia is not obliged!
            1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
              Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 5 February 2020 21: 37
              I know where the water comes from to the Dnieper, as well as the fact that the Russian share in the Dnieper drain is less than a quarter. And yet, to expand horizons - after Russia, the Dnieper flows through the territory of Belarus.
              1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 7 February 2020 10: 16
                Well ... don’t turn over the bags ... Russia will block the water - we’ll see how you walk the Dnieper, you will begin to wade along with the geese ...
                1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                  Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 7 February 2020 12: 29
                  I can only repeat that I don’t live in Ukraine, so personally, I definitely won’t ford anything, and even if I want to do such a stupid thing that your Duma clown voiced, you first need to ask Lukashenko permission, but he’s unlikely to come to enthusiasm for such an idea.
                  1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 7 February 2020 23: 08
                    And why in order to let the water of Russian rivers instead of Ukraine in the Don and Volga, we should ask the Ukrainian Lukashenko ?! He wears his underpants, bought with Russian money, he knows how to throw ponty ... but he himself is a kept woman ...
                    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 8 February 2020 09: 58
                      Yeah, you won’t even ask, take and take the Dnieper from Belarus :))) Boy, what class are you in?
                      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 February 2020 12: 40
                        A deuce to you, in geography ... No matter how much you want the opposite, the lion's share of the water in Ukraine comes from Russia and Russia is not obliged to supply it to Bandera.
                      2. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 8 February 2020 15: 01
                        Boy, go to any search engine, type the word "Dnipro" there and enlighten yourself - you will find out what the annual flow of the Dnieper is and what is the share of Russia in it.
                      3. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 February 2020 15: 25
                        Boy, I’m 40 years old and I live near the border with the territories of Russia temporarily occupied by Ukraine and I can see the local geography from here better than you from Israel!
                      4. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 8 February 2020 15: 56
                        At 40, to be so ignorant? A disgrace.
                      5. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 February 2020 17: 55
                        Well, it’s not for you to judge my mind, and not your country, existing in the Arab lands occupied by you, to blame Russia for something ... supposedly, you are our God-chosen ... By the way, the latest studies of scientists say that Christ is most likely was Greek, so that only Judas remains in your countrymen, which is not surprising, given your Judaism ...
                      6. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 8 February 2020 19: 40
                        This is perhaps in the “studies” of “scholars” like you :))) You most likely don’t even know that Jesus was circumcised on the seventh day, as a Jew is supposed to, and his mother Miriam was a God-fearing Jew. Father, if not in the know, carpenter Joseph. And if you tell that all the apostles, without exception, were the same Jews (and there were simply no others in Judea), then you will generally go crazy because of the break in the template. Yes, in addition, I can slightly expand your meager historical horizons - in 1948, Israel unconditionally accepted the UN plan to divide Mandate Palestine (if you know what it is), but the Arab countries refused to accept it and started the war against Israel together. For which they paid. Then they tried several more times, and with the full support of the great, mighty, and with the same shameful result.
                      7. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 February 2020 20: 39
                        You can trim the monkey, which does not make it a Jew! By the way, Muslims are also circumcised and not Jews, so no argument! Now, many special forces officers serving in a hot climate are circumcised, and not for religious, but for medical reasons ... Nobody called you or the United States gearing the United States on Arabs!
                      8. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 8 February 2020 21: 36
                        A little more educational program - Islam as such appeared only about half a century after the birth of Christ, so that Muslims could not be there by definition. Jesus (Russian transcription of the Hebrew name Yeshua) was circumcised in exact accordance with the laws of Halakha - on the seventh day in the presence of his Jewish parents Joseph and Miriam :))) And if Russia does not like the UN “Sixth gear, then why doesn’t it leave it?” ? And by the way, again a bit of educational program - the USSR in 1948 voted "for" the creation of the state of Israel.
                      9. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 February 2020 22: 38
                        And why did you get that everything that the Jews write is true, because Judas betrayed Christ, he is a liar in life!? The USSR realized what mistake it made, and therefore supported the Arabs, not you ...
                      10. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 8 February 2020 22: 45
                        Only now all the Christians of the world believe that what is written in the Old Testament is true, and do not question it. But the USSR made a mistake when in the 50s it was put on the wrong horse :))) And yes, it’s time for Russia to leave the “UN gear” for a long time. It is not clear what else to expect? :)))
                      11. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 8 February 2020 22: 48
                        You didn’t put it on that horse, starting to drive the USA against Russia, therefore the USSR turned its back on you, and you run into a war with the Russian Federation ... You are not a God-chosen one, but a very narrow-minded people, because it’s hard to find a country in which there wasn’t would be Jewish pogroms and you know that - The whole World cannot be bad, you need to look for your problems in yourself! After all, you, in Israel, even the Jews living outside Israel, do not give a damn, you do not care about the Jewish quarter, burned by the Georgian army with military equipment modernized in Israel ...
  • Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 4 February 2020 11: 43
    Yes, the Turks will have to be "forced". First by "fact" and then "diplomatically".
  • nikolaj1703 Offline nikolaj1703
    nikolaj1703 (Nikolai) 4 February 2020 12: 02
    More prilylyuetsya more than once!
  • xilia72 Offline xilia72
    xilia72 (xantos) 4 February 2020 18: 44
    If not for Trotsky and not Frunze and a couple of Soviet leaders, this problem would not exist now.
  • camo ridges Offline camo ridges
    camo ridges (Michael) 4 February 2020 21: 31
    If at the very top we don’t come to understand that you can’t play with the Turks in the giveaway, we can suddenly lose our positions in the Middle East, so hard won. These descendants of the Janissaries recognize only the harsh language of communication, and regard all kinds of concessions as weakness and behave accordingly. Why did Lavrov just now talk about Turkey’s non-fulfillment of the agreement on the demilitarized zone, giving the Turks a reason to believe that this would go unpunished? After all, it was clear that they would behave insolently and insolently. And now, any negotiations, any exhortations are meaningless.
    Only tough action by our military can change the situation, without regard to previous agreements and how the Turks will perceive it. Only by showing our determination can we count on Turkey's respect for the agreements reached earlier.
  • Sergey S._2 Offline Sergey S._2
    Sergey S._2 (Sergey S.) 4 February 2020 21: 43
    Turkey uses Russia as it benefits. Putin will not sit on two chairs - no one could.
  • Upmost Offline Upmost
    Upmost (Innocent) 4 February 2020 22: 23
    Quote: Tektor
    Turks will have to be "forced"

    The plane was shot down in 2015, and there was no answer whatsoever — only tomatoes.
    And here....
  • Upmost Offline Upmost
    Upmost (Innocent) 4 February 2020 22: 25
    Honestly, it begins to seem that Turkey, having received from our country everything (or almost everything) that it could have at this stage, does not intend to further pretend to be an ally and partner

    And who made the Infallible try to appease Erdogan for friendship with the Russian Federation?
    Has everyone played tricky plans? And what, where is the result? Nanogeny again outwitted all?
    1. Alekcandr Sokolenko (Alekcandr Sokolenko) 13 February 2020 18: 32
      The nano-genius is Chubais (Papa Carlo or Karabas Barabas of the Russian lads), and Putin needs to think about how not to "soak" in the toilet. How to guess the moves of the Regional Committee?
  • Yuri Mikhailovsky (Yuri Mikhailovsky) 5 February 2020 19: 34
    Do not drive the wave ... !!!!