The temptation of American oil: Belarus took the first step towards the Maidan

February 3 2020 28

In the "oil war" between Russia and Belarus there was a negative turnaround for the Kremlin. As expected, the West did not ignore the conflict between Moscow and Minsk and intends to help us to remain without a last ally. The United States is ready to "shoulder" President Lukashenko and fully provide Belarus with American oil, you just need to ask.

Sounds like the temptation of the Unclean. Does Alexander Grigorievich understand that, if he accepts this deal, he faces the fate of Viktor Fedorovich? Or does the Old Man consider himself smarter than everyone else?

Unfortunately, we have to admit that the crisis in Russian-Belarusian relations is developing according to the worst-case scenario. What is happening is the result of the lack of a clear development strategy for the Union State of our two countries. The agreement on its creation was signed under President Yeltsin, and in those years the likelihood of real unification of Russia and Belarus was quite high.

However, instead of integration, the Kremlin paid more attention to other things, such as the construction of oil pipelines and gas pipelines. Relations with Belarus, in fact, were reduced mainly to issues of oil produced with "allied" discounts. Clear business, people involved in schemes quite well earned on it in Minsk and Moscow.

When Russia fell under Western sanctions, it turned out that the Union State exists for some reason only on paper. The idea of using it as one of the options for a “transit of power” in 2024, when Vladimir Putin could have taken the chair of the head of this supranational entity, came to someone's bright mind. Minsk did not appreciate the idea, wishing to leave everything as it was before. This was the root cause of the current "oil war". Tax maneuver in oil industry hurts Belarus the economy, sharpened by cheap Russian oil.

Previously we toldthat Minsk actually failed to find cost-effective alternatives to domestic hydrocarbon raw materials: any other would be more expensive for it, and it would be profitable for Russia to sell “black gold” on the world market. At the same time, we made a reservation that at a certain stage политическая expediency can outweigh the economic for Belarus. Alas, it seems that this negative scenario is becoming operational.

As part of his tour, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and heads for Uzbekistan. In Minsk, Pompeo, by the way, the former head of the CIA, promised President Lukashenko to 100% provide his country with American oil. A few days earlier in the far UK in Oxford, the ex-ambassador of the United Kingdom to Russia, Roderick Line, commented on the conflict between Russia and Belarus and gave an unfavorable forecast for us:

According to my forecasts, this question will arise in the coming years. As happened in Ukraine and Georgia ... The future of the union state is unrealistic, since this is not the will of the Belarusians. They are independent and they want to remain independent.

So, we can state the fact that the Anglo-Saxons are ready to intervene in the “oil war” of Minsk and Moscow on the side of Lukashenko. Mike Pompeo even promised to return the American embassy to Belarus. Senator Pushkov commented on this statement:

Recognizable: at one time, they “brought to the new level” (Viktor) Yanukovych in Ukraine. US Ambassador Jeffrey Payette played a prominent role.

The case clearly smelled of kerosene. There is a first step towards the “Ukrainian scenario” in Belarus. Next, propaganda of “Western values” will begin, promises of foreign investment and modernization, a brighter future and lace panties for Belarusians. The local opposition will actively spin up American money with the help of the media. And there and to the Maidan at hand. President Lukashenko may naively believe that he is able to keep the situation under control by balancing on the contradictions between the West and Russia. The problem is that he is no longer a young man, and he can easily overestimate his capabilities.

The fact that the victory in the "oil war" over Belarus for Russia may be Pyrrhic, we directly warned earlier. This happens when the power’s strategic goals have been ignored for years, and after rude and primitive blackmail they are trying to quickly solve purely tactical tasks, ignoring the obvious fact that a third unfriendly force can intervene in the conflict.

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Afinogen

+1

3 February 2020 11: 25

Lukashenko was so offended by Russia that he was ready to destroy Belarus out of resentment. Everything goes to the Ukrainian scenario, everything worked out for the Americans. Then Lukashenko will pretend to be sad and say, they deceived me.
123

0

3 February 2020 12: 02

The fact that the victory in the "oil war" over Belarus for Russia may be Pyrrhic, we directly warned earlier.

Words worthy of a professional oppositionist constantly reiterate that everyone is doing wrong and warning, warning ....., while not going into specifics, what exactly did wrong and how to proceed.

This happens when the power’s strategic goals have been ignored for years, and after rude and primitive blackmail they are trying to quickly solve purely tactical tasks, ignoring the obvious fact that a third unfriendly force can intervene in the conflict.

Could you be so kind as to explain, please, in what way the ignorance of strategic goals was expressed? And if it is possible, on what basis was it concluded that it is precisely "purely tactical tasks" that are being solved?
By the way, the phrase:

This happens when the power’s strategic goals have been ignored for years, and after rude and primitive blackmail they are trying to quickly solve purely tactical tasks, ignoring the obvious fact that a third unfriendly force can intervene in the conflict.

fully attributable to Belarus.
Igor Pavlovich

-13

3 February 2020 12: 25

Does Alexander Grigoryevich understand that, if he accepts this deal, he will face the fate of Viktor Fedorovich? ...

- exactly the opposite - Viktor Fedorovich just sided with Putin - he sold Ukraine for $ 3, as a result he was expelled from the country, he took $ 3 back in cash to Russia and returned it to Putin, and for that he was given a good booth in Rostov and put on a chain without the right to leave. But they allowed to bark on command ...
But Alexander Grigoryevich will have a lifetime guarantee of inviolability in the world (except, perhaps, Russia) and a good summer house to choose from - Hawaii, Miami, etc. etc. - Americans are not poor and not greedy.
1. molotkov60mkpu
  
  +4
  
  3 February 2020 15: 27
  
  Luka will have, but have you thought about Belarus? Yes, and this situation fell out of the "cunning" of the dad - all it was necessary to support Russia in Crimea, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, to give the opportunity to place an airbase, not to resell sanctioned products, and a couple more positions. These are normal conditions for an ally. And dad showed himself to be a corrupt huckster. This does not fit into the criteria of decency, even taking into account the capitalist course of Russia.
  I do not diminish Russia's failures on this issue.
2. General Black
  
  +3
  
  3 February 2020 16: 31
  
  Igor Pavlovich, you can only dream of such a booth in America.
  
  But Alexander Grigoryevich will have a lifetime guarantee of inviolability in the world (except, perhaps, Russia) and a good summer house to choose from - Hawaii, Miami, etc. etc. - Americans are not poor and not greedy.
  
  The replica is very familiar. Add only about hot water, three meals a day, a medical examination. And you can print flyers. Only instead of dachas, Lukashenko will have a bench in the Hague, polished by Milosevic’s ass (God rest his soul), to choose from. Anglo-Saxons can not be taken for the word. Hazardous to health, Hussein and Gaddafi are an example.
beeper

+6

3 February 2020 12: 50

In Belarus, back in 2014, Russophobic "Litvinization" gained momentum, when the "father" was openly scared of the "Crimean scenario" at home! Even then it became very noticeable!
And now, it seems, the LAS is just a convenient screen, it still plays its "role of president", but others are leading the pro-American way - there has been "the tail wagging the dog" for two or three years!

Apparently, his pro-Western camarilla himself promised some kind of "guarantees of immunity," but what they cost - we saw the example of "guarantees" to Yanukovych - he was saved from the guaranteed slaughter only by the developed Urkagan "chuyka" and the boundless kindness of the Russian President, who sent special forces to save this hapless ameroholuy - "no alternative European integrator"!

In terms of their intellectual level, the LAS and the VFYa are practically identical - the small-town "telepni", due to the death of the Soviet Union, by chance, ascended significantly above their level of competence (under the Union they would have a "ceiling" - a provincial "instructor of the district party committee in charge of the agrarian sector "and" eternal zavgar ", IMHO), but the Belarusian" father "does not even have a developed Urkagan" chuyka "of our runaway" hat thief "- he may not have time to escape to Russia, and the Belarusian ameroholui who completed an internship on the Kiev Maidan, now they will be on the alert and guard ....?!

It was embarrassing to hear, during a meeting with the American Secretary of State, the flattering scorn of the "father" about the "dictatorship", with a "thick hint", they say, see for yourself - "what kind of dictator I am in Europe, because now I am completely yours and lead Belarus in the correct ( anti-Russian) direction! "
Apparently, he does not know that the odious anti-Lukashenka memoranda "on democratic freedoms in Belarus" adopted by the Americans in 2004 and 2011 have not been canceled, or he thinks that the Washington hawks have forgiven him for the recent "tricks" in Drozdy and the shameful expulsion of American diplomats - "architect" Pompeo I just listened and grinned condescendingly, looking condescendingly as the "last dictator of Europe" humbly lay before him, begging for personal forgiveness at the cost of dragging "his country" into the position of another anti-Russian amerocolony in the "underbelly" of Russia!

My forecast is that the Americans will use the LAS and throw it away as unnecessary, as they did with the unlucky “uncontested European integrators” used by Yanukovych-Azarov, without demand and contrary to the aspirations of the majority of the Ukrainian population, who dragged Ukraine “to the West” and believed in their “need for the West” "after the service rendered by Judeo Mazepa!
The Belarusian "father" has played into his "indispensability" and will stick himself into a trap set for him, nudged by his mercantile westernized environment! Really, attached under state power, his elder sons will not tell him that by doing so he is destroying their future too ??!

Regarding subsidized concessions, who have already clearly decided to settle in the West, the Belarusian "independents" will be exactly according to the Russian saying:

How many wolves do not feed, he looks into the forest!

The anti-Russian maidans, both in Ukraine and in Belarus, were in fact prepared for the Russian UNCONTROLLED-UNCONTROLLED multi-billion dollar "fraternal subsidies" from the Kremlin to local "ilites" in Kiev and Minsk, and not for the pitiful TARGET-ACCOUNTABLE avaricious "a few billions of addresses" personified by Washington , "grants" with the help of which "agents of influence" were bribed in the government (who controlled the anti-Russian use of generous Russian "subsidies") and in the media (providing propaganda for the anti-Russian "Western course" in the EU and NATO, although, in the case of Ukraine, there was the bill of the Ukrainian taxpayers, the presidents themselves with the prime ministers campaigned there too!)!
Even the Chinese, when they give a loan to "father", furnish it with all sorts of benefits for themselves and control over the return - for this, their LAS obsequiously respects and never, even in absentia, does not fire!
Marzhecki

+4

3 February 2020 13: 19

Quote: 123
Words worthy of a professional oppositionist constantly repeat that everyone is doing wrong and warning, warning ..

I am not a professional, but an "amateur".
1. 123
  
  -1
  
  4 February 2020 20: 40
  
  I am not a professional, but an "amateur".
  
  The essence of this does not change.
  PS I still do not get notifications about your answers (this one was found by chance).
Marzhecki

+4

3 February 2020 13: 22

Quote: Igor Pavlovich
... Does Alexander Grigoryevich understand that, if he accepts this deal, he will face the fate of Viktor Fedorovich? ...

- exactly the opposite - Viktor Fedorovich just sided with Putin - he sold Ukraine for $ 3, as a result he was expelled from the country, he took $ 3 back in cash to Russia and returned it to Putin, and for that he was given a good booth in Rostov and put on a chain without the right to leave. But they allowed to bark on command ...

Liberals are able to put everything upside down.
Dimy4

+1

3 February 2020 15: 23

The US is ready to "substitute the shoulder" ...

To put then on the shoulder blades.
T. Hanks

+2

3 February 2020 15: 49

Ask now anyone who has the head in this union state, no one will answer. And practically no one knows what kind of state this is. Money is eating, but why is it, is this state? Surely there will be no European Union out of it. Fig leaf, he is. Where is Borodin nonche?
rotkiv04

+2

3 February 2020 16: 32

The Bulbashs would have been dumped sooner or later, there, like in Ukraine, there is already a young generation re-educated by the Pends funds, now the main thing is that Putin himself should not be settled in Rostov, let him (Father) be hanged by these young wolves for the edification of the rest "Russia.
Eduard Aplombov

+2

3 February 2020 16: 37

The collective farmer hopes not to lose in the confrontation with the Kremlin, but he is not going to bend with the United States, that is, he wants to fuck both, of course, within the limits of what is reasonable from his point of view, something will not work, but something will work out, etc. e much will be decided, in his opinion, in the order of receipt of the problems.
It does not work out with oil from Russia and it is decided on the second step - the search for oil and the search for new fellow travelers in solving problems with filling the budget. I wonder what and how the Kremlin will respond:
a) leave the situation in limbo;
b) make small concessions;
c) will return to the previous economic sponsorship;
g) tighten the screws stronger (oil will redirect to other directions, partially block the import of products, block subsidies and loans, etc.)
Any decision of the Kremlin has its pros and cons. My personal opinion is to remember the story of Ukraine and learn cynicism, as Europe and the USA break the local * elite * through the knee and put * sane * local leaders for them.
Upmost

-4

3 February 2020 18: 51

But instead of integration, the Kremlin paid more attention to other things, such as the construction of oil pipelines and gas pipelines. Relations with Belarus, in fact, were reduced mainly to issues of oil produced with "allied" discounts. Of course, involved in the schemes people in Minsk and Moscow made good money on this.

When did Russia find itself under Western sanctions, it turned out that the Union State exists for some reason only on paper. Someone came up with an idea use it as one of the options "Transit of power" in 2024, when Vladimir Putin would be able to transfer to the chair of the head of this supranational entity. Minsk did not appreciate the idea, wishing to leave everything as it was before. This was the root cause of the current "oil war". A tax maneuver in the oil industry will hurt the Belarusian economy, sharpened by cheap Russian oil.

Gold words.
And who did not allow to leave everything as it is? Lukashenko? No, the greed of the Kremlin. He wants Belarus to act as the western defensive outpost of Russia, but without any preferences. Or, let’s go to our barn.
And who said that Belarusians should enter this barn?
If you want Belarus not to join NATO, support you in other endeavors, and generally be a missile defense-Russian - you have to somehow pay for this. But without the "union-state-integration impudence."
No - your "partners" are not asleep, and already right there.
And for the Russian Federation to go into such "butting" with the only post-Soviet ally is simply schizophrenia.
Well, yes, and who said that geniuses are sitting in the Kremlin?
1. 123
  
  +1
  
  4 February 2020 20: 45
  
  UpperMost (Innocent)
  In short, Smoktunovsky, you’ll call your hut a barn.
  1. Upmost
    
    -2
    
    4 February 2020 21: 51
    
    My dear, do not be nervous. The truth must be able to look into the eyes.
    1. 123
      
      +1
      
      5 February 2020 00: 18
      
      My dear, do not be nervous. The truth must be able to look into the eyes.
      
      Tyrolean wolf to you, my dear.
Upmost

-6

3 February 2020 18: 58

Quote: rotkiv04
All the same, they would have dumped the bulbash sooner or later, there, as in Ukraine, there is already a young generation re-educated by Pends funds

Educate you (RF).
Yes, there is nothing - on TV only films and serials about "brothers".
The training system is based on the same western patterns. Elite kids do not study in the Russian Federation from the word quite.
All the best (tangible) is brought from the West.
There is no ideology from the word at all.
Future development is more than foggy.

So what's the point of clinging to (any) "younger / ex" brother?
Alexander Bushkovsky

+3

3 February 2020 19: 26

Belarus is still that ally! God forbid from such allies and "brothers". Russia has always had, has and will have only two true allies. This is her army and navy !!!
steelmaker

-3

3 February 2020 20: 23

I read the comments and all the same names, once I have already dealt with their predictions. And so they didn't learn anything. Either the author is a liberal oppositionist, then the numbers in the commentary are wrong, or Kazakh vodka is not sweet. In general, "grenades of the wrong system". And themselves, so smart, to offer something? No! Just be rude and nasty to write something! Not brains, but a straight intestine.
How can you believe our government, after she threw her people, and more than once. And betraying an ally is like "two fingers ...........". Unlike our government, Lukashenka defends and fights for the well-being of his people and country. And our government forced him to come to an agreement with the Americans, putting forward an ultimatum on oil! Lukashenka will NEVER be Yanukovych simply because EVERYONE obeys him, not just Berkut. And as long as Lukashenka is alive, there will be no MAIDAN in Belarus, just like the blue! And Lukashenka is more Russian than Putin, because his family lives in Belarus. Compare further?
1. General Black
  
  +2
  
  4 February 2020 08: 12
  
  “We would welcome a more active US role in Belarus. Proceeding from the role the USA plays in the world arena <...> In particular, an exchange of views took place on the situation in the region and on the prospects for Belarus' interaction with the NATO bloc. The intention of Belarus was noted to make efforts to preserve peace and security on the continent "
  
  Makei breathed it out. One had only not to report the grubs to the trough, as the ally immediately snapped to the potential enemy. And yes, about your beloved Kazakh "vodka". In Russia, the minimum price is 0,5 rubles, and you continue to drink stall swill for 230.
2. 123
  
  0
  
  4 February 2020 20: 48
  
  And by yourself, so smart, to offer something? Not! Just be rude and nasty to write something! Not brains, but some kind of rectum.
  
  What's the point? For example, you immediately precipitate, do not wait for an answer. And about the gut .... run into rudeness.
Panting

+1

3 February 2020 21: 44

Claw is bogged down - there is an abyss for the whole bird.
Gadley

+1

4 February 2020 03: 40

Lukash was never an ally - he was a cunning collective farmer and used to, like in Soviet times, sit on subsidies.
Marzhecki

+4

4 February 2020 08: 04

Quote: GADLEY
the author writes some nonsense, even reading is not interesting. Lukash was never an ally - he was a cunning collective farmer and used to, like in Soviet times, sit on subsidies.

Don’t read it. The work of Ukrainian political emigrants such as Sashka Rogers or Rostislav Ishchenko is more suitable for you. Here you read them.
Sergey S._2

-2

4 February 2020 21: 53

Russia is losing its only and last ally due to the usual greed of high ranks. Stupidity or worse?
shadow

+2

5 February 2020 01: 37

I remember America was already trying to sell oil to China, but the oil turned out to be with a lot of hydrogen sulfide.

https://fishki.net/2952034-amerikanskaja-nefty-isporchena-serovodorodom.html
Rus

0

9 February 2020 09: 00

Get behind Belarus, let them do whatever they want! We ourselves ... in the country and have enough of our own problems!