Left with nothing: Poland’s anti-Russian gas policy did not work

The transit agreement concluded between Gazprom and Poland in 2010 expires on March 18. Warsaw was looking forward to this event, as they considered the current contract “unfair” and hoped to sign a new, on more favorable terms, taking advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But something went wrong.


In general, due to the tensions between Kiev and Moscow, enviable prospects loomed before the Poles. The likely cessation of gas transit through Ukraine provided Warsaw with a “lever of pressure” on Gazprom with all the consequences. Moreover, Poland decided to become a kind of regional hub by subscribing to an expensive LNG from the USA and initiating the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline from Norway in order to further purchase cheap Norwegian gas for itself and to sell expensive American to its neighbors, earning extra profit.

However, in reality the following happened: the contract with Ukraine was extended, Gazprom launched the Turkish Stream, Europe did not allocate funds for Baltic Pip, and in general, gas demand decreased due to the warm winter.

As a result, Poland will not receive Norwegian gas in the near future, nobody needs expensive American LNG, and there are no proposals from Gazprom to extend the contract. But under the future gas profits Warsaw has already managed to sign multibillion-dollar arms contracts with the United States. Not to mention the fact that an empty gas pipeline will start to generate losses instead of profit, since the pipe still needs to be maintained.

The position is stalemate. But Poland only aggravated it without inventing anything better than to re-launch the hackneyed compensation for the so-called "occupation". Thus, worsening already strained relations with Moscow.