Channel "Istanbul": in a few years, the Russian Federation will lose an advantage in the Black Sea


Another “friendly greetings” flew to Moscow from Ankara. In just five years, the US Sixth Fleet will be able to land in the Black Sea on an ongoing basis, taking the Russian Navy base in Sevastopol and the entire south of Russia at the sight of the Tomahawks. All this will become possible due to the decision of President Erdogan to dig the Istanbul channel bypassing the Montreux Convention.


At the end of last month, we detail toldthat this alternative navigable artery to the Bosphorus is still destined to be, despite the expressed doubts that Turkey will master it for the money. The cost of the project is estimated with a wide spread from 10 to 20 billion dollars. However, the canal will be built: its route has been approved, and the tender for its construction is very symbolically scheduled for February 26, that is, the birthday of President Recep Erdogan himself.

The channel will connect the Sea of ​​Marmara with the Black Sea, bypassing the Bosphorus. Its width will be 150 meters, depth - 25. It is estimated that in a year it will be able to pass up to 85 thousand vessels. This in itself is wonderful, the Turkish straits are heavily congested. There have been repeated cases of collisions of ships, oil spills. If, rather, when this stream of ships moves along Istanbul, the Bosphorus will be unloaded. The ecological situation on it will improve dramatically, active commercial development of the coast will begin, artificial islands will be poured from the soil excavated during the laying of the canal. Pleasure yachts will begin to walk along the channel, the tourism industry in Turkey will receive an additional incentive for development.

So why is this remarkable infrastructure project arousing enthusiasm for everyone except Russia?

Unfortunately, the Istanbul channel has another dimension, the military one. As you know, the status of the Turkish Straits is regulated by the Montreux Convention. According to it, the time and tonnage of ships of non-Black Sea countries, which include the United States and its most serious NATO allies, are very limited. They can stay in the Black Sea for only 21 days, after which rotation is required. After the transition of Crimea to the Russian Federation, the balance of power at sea in the region changed in favor of Moscow. Apparently, "Istanbul" is called upon to radically solve this problem of "hegemon", and Turkey - to earn political points.

The appearance in just five years of an alternative to the Bosphorus, which is not provided for by the Montreux Convention, will allow Ankara to raise the issue of its cancellation or revision in view of the changed situation. Knowing how such issues are resolved, there is little doubt that the decisions will be made in favor of the West to the detriment of Russia's interests. In order not to be unfounded, we quote the Turkish edition of Hurriyet:

Channel "Istanbul" will de facto become the US move in an attempt to settle in the Black Sea. The channel will allow you to bypass the Montreux Convention, which restricts the passage of American ships through the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus, and does not allow them to be in the Black Sea for more than 21 days.

Everything lies on the surface, not particularly hiding. Already in 2025, the Sixth fleet of the United States, reinforced by the allies, will be able to stand on a permanent basis on the Black Sea, for example, in Bulgaria or Odessa after reconstruction of its port. And these are hundreds and hundreds of cruise missiles and anti-missiles, which will radically turn the alignment of forces in the Russian south, threatening the crushing blow to Crimea.
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  1. Alexander Zima Offline
    Alexander Zima (Alexander Zima) 19 January 2020 13: 47
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    Well, what’s the problem ..... of course, you can take everything .. and marry a girl, and at the same time a place, but you can always get an answer .... well, the entire sixth fleet in the Black Sea will be drowned, the depth allows, but the game is worth it ... for some reason the author is silent, but I would like to ask him about it.
    1. Alexander Zima Offline
      Alexander Zima (Alexander Zima) 19 January 2020 13: 51
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      It’s the same as adjusting the Northern Fleet to Cuba and aiming at the entire coast of America .... but the question is whether he will return home ????????????
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  4. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 January 2020 15: 04
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    Quote: Alexander Zima
    Well, what’s the problem ..... you can, of course, take everything .. and marry a girl, and at the same time a place, but you can always get an answer .... well, the entire sixth fleet in the Black Sea will be drowned, the depth allows, but the game is worth it ... for some reason the author is silent, but I would like to ask him about it.

    What will follow the drowning of the US Sixth Fleet by the United States?
    PS As far as I understand, you are from the "one-way people", you don’t think about the next steps, in principle, and about their consequences, or you replayed computer games. wink
    1. Alexander Zima Offline
      Alexander Zima (Alexander Zima) 19 January 2020 17: 46
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      I don’t understand, you seriously consider Amers to be idiots ..... and if a tomahawk flies, then the fleet cannot be drowned ... by what rules ... N. S. Khrushchev once placed missiles ...
      1. Alexander Zima Offline
        Alexander Zima (Alexander Zima) 19 January 2020 17: 50
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        Cuba .. how did this end to explain or read the story ... yes, in five years PUTIN will not be in power ... but, for example, Zhirinovsky will come ... and lay the channel between the USA and CANADA ... so as not to rage. ..patience is always the end.
      2. Sergey Tokarev Offline
        Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 19 January 2020 21: 17
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        Not only amers, but also Turks))) the Turks do not let the tankers to prevent the Black Sea puddle, and then they will agree to heat the scrap metal in their country ...
      3. Syoma_67 Offline
        Syoma_67 (Semyon) 21 January 2020 00: 06
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        ... well, they’ll drown the entire sixth fleet in the Black Sea ..

        - There have been a lot of such clever smarts from the “sofa” over the past 50 to 60 years, since the Japanese, have they tried and how did it end? And as I understand it, you do not quite understand what the 6th fleet is, read carefully about its composition and performance characteristics of the ships, and their weapons, which are included in it.
    2. commbatant Offline
      commbatant (Sergei) 19 January 2020 22: 57
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      Quote: Marzhetsky
      PS As I understand it, you are from the "one-way people", do not think about the next steps, in principle, and about their consequences, or have replayed computer games. wink

      As I understand it, you not only hold the USSN for idiots, but also consider the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation as cowards, and also assume that residents of coastal cities of the Russian Federation will "pour out" to meet with the colors of the US Navy and NATO ...if so, then who are you?
      1. master3 Offline
        master3 (Vitali) 21 January 2020 00: 08
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        And why not?
  5. Wooh Offline
    Wooh (Barmaley) 19 January 2020 21: 46
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    I am not a specialist, but the Montreux Convention is about the Black Sea, not canals.
    belay repeat
    1. commbatant Offline
      commbatant (Sergei) 19 January 2020 22: 53
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      Quote: Uuh
      I am not a specialist, but the Montreux Convention is about the Black Sea, not canals.
      belay repeat

      In vain you wrote it, now "experts" will fall on you ...

      Convention about the regime of straits (Montreux, 1936)

      https://ru.wikisource.org/wiki
  6. commbatant Offline
    commbatant (Sergei) 19 January 2020 22: 50
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    In just five years, the US Sixth Fleet will be able to land in the Black Sea on an ongoing basis, taking the Russian Navy base in Sevastopol and the entire south of Russia at the sight of the Tomahawks. All this will become possible due to the decision of President Erdogan to dig the Istanbul channel bypassing the Montreux Convention.

    Some kind of nonsense, but without

    Istanbul Channel

    US can't take aim

    Russian Navy base in Sevastopol and the entire south of Russia

    the same Tomahawks, or do ships and submarines need to enter the Black Sea to increase their chances of being targeted by the SCRK of the Coastal Forces and the base aviation of the Russian Navy?
  7. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 19 January 2020 23: 57
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    Not so long ago (Why Russia should support Turkey in the fight against Israeli gas) I wrote in the comments that Turkey is with us for the long term. And seriously will not run into our interests.
    Here, I saw a post - https://www.vpk-news.ru/news/54719

    It is reported here that "Ankara took an unprecedented step. It began to block the passage of the ships of its NATO allies from the Mediterranean Sea to the Black Sea. Thus, Turkey clearly outlined its position with regard to the North Atlantic alliance." Even US Navy ships are braking. The era of free visits to the Black Sea by NATO ships has ended. Turkey began to obediently comply with the provisions of Montreux, emphasizing precisely the inadmissibility of provoking the Russian Federation. Of course, the United States contributes to this, with its wretched foreign policy. They drove China into the need to closely cooperate with the Russian Federation, now they are driving Turkey there too.
  8. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 January 2020 09: 47
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    Quote: commbatant
    As I understand it, you not only hold the USSN for idiots, but also consider the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation as cowards, and also assume that residents of coastal cities of the Russian Federation will "pour out" to meet with the colors of the US Navy and NATO ... if so, then then who are you?

    These are your personal fabrications that should not be attributed to me. What about whom I think is my own business.
  9. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 January 2020 09: 49
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    Quote: Alexander Zima
    It’s the same as adjusting the Northern Fleet to Cuba and aiming at the entire coast of America .... but the question is whether he will return home ????????????

    You can send the Northern Fleet, only it does not have a base there, it will have to return. And the US Sixth Fleet in the Black Sea will have permanent bases.
  10. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 January 2020 09: 53
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    Quote: commbatant
    In just five years, the US Sixth Fleet will be able to land in the Black Sea on an ongoing basis, taking the Russian Navy base in Sevastopol and the entire south of Russia at the sight of the Tomahawks. All this will become possible due to the decision of President Erdogan to dig the Istanbul channel bypassing the Montreux Convention.

    Some kind of nonsense, but without

    Istanbul Channel

    US can't take aim

    Russian Navy base in Sevastopol and the entire south of Russia

    the same Tomahawks, or do ships and submarines need to enter the Black Sea to increase their chances of being targeted by the SCRK of the Coastal Forces and the base aviation of the Russian Navy?

    The problem with people like you is that you think Putin is constantly holding his finger on the red button. Which a little something - immediately erase the US into nuclear ashes. No one will allow a nuclear war.
    The United States may well bring its fleet into the Black Sea permanently as a means of deterring and creating a source of constant threat. Russia will be forced to respond to this by redrawing the entire defense system. This is a huge expense for a country in a difficult economic situation. But you are in a helmet ...
    1. Jar.serge Offline
      Jar.serge (Reznik) 20 January 2020 12: 04
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      It is not necessary to count and think. Putin’s words have not yet diverged. Read, listen to what he says and what he warns Western "friends." Or do you think when the question arises about the existence of the country, and of the people, someone will think whether to press the "red" button. And the West has already proved that they don’t need the people, at least not all.
      1. commbatant Offline
        commbatant (Sergei) 21 January 2020 21: 04
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        Quote: Jar.serge
        It is not necessary to count and think.

        He’s not paid for it here ....

        Marzhetsky (Sergey)

        Northern Fleet You can send, only he has no base thereHe will have to return. And the sixth US fleet on the Black Sea the bases will be.

        Those. The USA is everything to him, the Russian Federation is nothing ...
        If you do not agree with the only scribble on this site, then they will tell you:

        But you are in a helmet ...
    2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 20 January 2020 15: 33
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      Quote: Marzhetsky
      No one will allow a nuclear war.

      Do you hold Putin for the Italian or British? Which can be killed - they do not pickle. And we are already picking. Teachings with China and Iran ... Iran, sir. Military training!
  11. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 20 January 2020 11: 40
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    Already in 2025, the Sixth fleet of the United States, reinforced by the allies, will be able to stand on a permanent basis on the Black Sea, for example, in Bulgaria or Odessa after the reconstruction of its port. And these are hundreds and hundreds of cruise missiles and anti-missiles, which will radically turn the balance of power in the Russian south, threatening the crushing blow to Crimea.

    Firstly, the channel will pass through the territory of Turkey, they, of course, can skip, but not a fact, in general, are not required. Secondly, "parking" in the Black Sea will be uncomfortable for understanding the situation: the radius of the S-400.
    For anti-ship missiles, the radius is about the same. Especially. will have to invest in the reconstruction of such a "promising" port as Odessa ... Also, all the information about movements in the port in Moscow will be earlier than in Washington. There will be no problem recruiting agents. Third, symmetrical responses are inevitable. I doubt that every US president wants to feel like Kennedy.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 20 January 2020 14: 03
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      Quote: 123
      Anti-ship missiles have approximately the same radius

      And the Caliber has 2500 km.
      Dumb amateur article. The Montreux Agreement extends to the Black Sea. The strait and the canal are Turkish property, and nothing from the construction of the canal will change anything in international treaties.
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 20 January 2020 19: 16
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        And the Caliber has 2500 km.
        Dumb amateur article. The Montreux Agreement extends to the Black Sea. The strait and the canal are Turkish property, and nothing from the construction of the canal will change anything in international treaties.

        Gauges for the base. So it turns out, the base is under the gun, almost the whole sea is shot through, you still can’t fly. Very uncomfortable. So I doubt its construction. Rather, the article is calculated on the indignant reaction of the local public and stormy comments.
        1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
          Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 21 January 2020 10: 11
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          Quote: 123
          So I doubt its construction.

          As a purely commercial project - a safer (for the city of Istanbul) route for oil, liquefied gas, propylene, liquid chlorine - is very useful. I think they will build it if the global crisis does not crash transportation.
          1. 123 Offline
            123 (123) 21 January 2020 13: 04
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            As a purely commercial project - a safer (for the city of Istanbul) route for oil, liquefied gas, propylene, liquid chlorine - is very useful. I think they will build it if the global crisis does not crash transportation.

            I apologize, hi apparently misconceived thoughts. I mean - I doubt the construction of a full-fledged base. Limited to a minimal presence, as in Ochakovo. Building a base under the guns of missiles is far from a good idea.
            1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
              Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 21 January 2020 16: 38
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              Quote: 123
              I doubt the construction of a full base

              The American base, due to the 21 day limit, with Turkey’s loyalty to Montreux, is not possible. Moreover, Turkey has the largest navy in the World Cup. What to share power?
              Bases are possible with the transfer of Romania and Bulgaria a couple of dozen destroyers with cruise missiles. But who will give them, without American crews ...
  12. Jar.serge Offline
    Jar.serge (Reznik) 20 January 2020 12: 00
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    Suppose an enemy fleet entered the Black Sea. It doesn’t matter whether Turkey is "blown away" and lets everyone who is "not laziness", or dug a new strait. What's next? What is good about Crimea is that ALL the Black Sea, including the straits, is shot from the peninsula. 99% - that the fleet that "entered" will no longer be out. Naturally, provided that there are professionals on the peninsula who think with their heads.
  13. Rinat Offline
    Rinat (Rinat) 20 January 2020 13: 05
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    Alarmist article. We now have enough conventional forces and means to drown the entire fleet in the same place during an attack by the US Navy from the Black Sea. The Americans are far from stupid people, and ours are not made with a finger to give in to the threat. We will create additional threats to the United States, both in the Black Sea and elsewhere.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 20 January 2020 13: 59
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      winked More precisely, the article is a complete amateur. Like a canal under construction - 100% American property, on American soil. wassat
  14. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 20 January 2020 13: 57
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    Gee. The Montreux Convention applies to the Black Sea, and not to the straits. Turkey, as was the regulator of passage for warships, remained.
    The only change is that those who do not want to stand in line instead of a free passage along the Bosphorus can go through the channel for 50 thousand. And gas carriers can get into the Black Sea, bypassing the center of Istanbul and its bridges.
  15. Dear sofa expert. 20 January 2020 19: 04
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    The article is about nothing. In case of war, all agreements and "conventions" will fly into the window. Therefore, the channel will not play any role. Moreover, it can be closed easily and for a long time, flooding there only one large ship, or even a barge with cement. So to carry out on it the squadron complete madness. No less madness to enter a fleet in the Black Sea. Everything that goes there can be sunk quite quickly. The author of the article just has some kind of sore brain. We must think about the world, not about stupid things)
  16. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 20 January 2020 20: 00
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    Given the range of coastal anti-ship missiles of the Russian Federation, the Black Sea will become a cemetery for the American fleet.
  17. Well, we will be opposite the amers our fleet!
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 21 January 2020 10: 14
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      We will send tankers and container ships to the sea - the Americans will kill themselves without any missiles.
  18. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 24 January 2020 19: 09
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    Quote: Jar.serge
    Read, listen to what he says and what he warns Western "friends"

    And what, are they all written with fear of such warnings?
    Rather, chuckling, moving further east.
  19. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 24 January 2020 19: 11
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    Quote: Sapsan136
    Given the range of coastal anti-ship missiles of the Russian Federation

    They are afraid to shoot, rather, they will express concern, and the Infallible will show another cartoon.
    About a nuclear rocket.