The gas results of the year: the main "battle for the flows" is yet to come


Let us summarize the results of the Russian year. economics in the field of energy. For the leading domestic company, Gazprom, the year 2019 was difficult, but 2020 and subsequent are likely to be even harder. What grounds are there for saying so?


The main events of the end of 2019, which crowned the post-Maidan five-year period, are, of course, the signing of a new transit agreement with Ukraine on conditions that are humiliating for Russia and the suspension of the construction of Nord Stream-2 by US sanctions on the last critical 5% of the length of its route. Unfortunately, whatever one may say, this can not be called anything other than defeat.

The defeat was predetermined back in 2014, when the Kremlin decided to return Crimea to the Russian Federation, but de facto gave the rest of Ukraine to the Americans. Justifying this short-sighted deed, professional propagandists and their voluntary assistants, the "eye beam", frightened us with the Third Nuclear War, from which we, the ungrateful, were saved. Even then, some remembered the prophetic words of Winston Churchill:

If a country, choosing between war and shame, chooses shame, it receives both war and shame.


And so it happened, just five years after the Maidan, Russia received a “gas war”, before which it surrendered, without even starting, and a shame in the form of humiliating conditions for a new transit agreement.

Alas, there could be no other. Seated on oil and gas pipes, our country is critically dependent on the export of hydrocarbons. All attempts by the Kremlin to find workarounds by opponents in the face of the United States were thwarted. First, under their pressure, Bulgaria actually “leaked” the South Stream gas pipeline. The alternative “Turkish Stream” doubled in length, from four pipes to two. Almost completed, Nord Stream 2 fell under the newly adopted amendments to the Third Energy Package, which left it half empty.

Germany, the main interest in Nord Stream-2, was able to push through an option bypassing this rule, but it is valid only until May 23, 2020. However, the United States “under the tree” imposed sanctions on the contractors of the project, and they immediately abandoned the construction of the pipeline. Now, not a single foreign company, which can be counted on the fingers of one hand, and with the end of a stick, does not touch the contract with Gazprom for the completion of the pipeline.

This means that the deadlines are broken, and the window of opportunity that the outgoing Chancellor Merkel knocked out for Nord Stream 2 will close. Our “national treasure” will have to somehow get out on our own, and everything will happen in Danish waters, which we will return to later.

So, Gazprom, having failed the strategy of bypass routes, was forced to capitulate in front of Naftogaz. The new contract was concluded for 5 years, 65 billion cubic meters will be pumped in the first year, and 4 billion cubic meters in the next 40 years. Transit payments are almost doubled, the penalty awarded by the Stockholm arbitration, Gazprom paid. By the way, that due to the penalty managed to grow from 2,6 to 2,9 billion dollars. Full fiasco.

Complete? No, things could be worse ahead. All these humiliating defeats of the domestic monopolist occur within the framework of the US struggle for the European gas market. The Americans are interested in reducing the share of Gazprom while increasing the cost of blue fuel, which will make their LNG more competitive. What remains to be done by the Russian gas company?

The S&P Global Platts news agency specializing in gas price quotes cites the opinion of the Western expert community that Gazprom will be forced to start a lowering game next year. The “national treasure” will have to “flood” Europe with gas in order to minimize its prices and “kill” competitors. Experts are convinced that the Russian company will go to work at a loss in order to maintain market share.

And now we return to Europe and, in particular, Denmark. It is clear that the United States will not sit and calmly watch how Gazprom devalues ​​their efforts to promote LNG. They can try to implement the Kremlin’s most “nightmare nightmare”. In this scenario, Nord Stream-2 will not be completed in the foreseeable future or never at all. So, foreign contractors will not take up the project. Fortuna is not able to lay the pipeline; Academician Chersky is under repair and is very far away. It will take years to build a new pipe-laying vessel in Russia.

Under US pressure, Copenhagen may, because of the risk of falling under US sanctions, prohibit even Russian vessels from working in their waters if they ever appear. And then the almost finished pipeline will remain rusty at the bottom of the sea indefinitely. At the same time, the demand for gas in the EU has not been canceled. Then the scenario is not completely ruled out in which Washington, Berlin and Brussels agree among themselves on the use of the EUGAL system not for Nord Stream-2, but for deliveries of American and Qatari gas.

Now our "national treasure" pays for the construction of transit infrastructure through Serbia. If Bulgaria again let Gazprom down and merge its part of the Turkish Stream transit line, then it will be possible to really put out the lights. When everything is ready, the Russian company will be asked to exit, and the pipelines built at our expense in Europe will be used for the needs of LNG, TANAP and EastMed and other alternative Russian projects.

This will be a complete fiasco. Happy New Year to all!
Used photos: gazprom.com
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  1. YUG64 Offline
    YUG64 (Yuri) 30 December 2019 12: 21
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    The whole life of Gazprom and Russia is a series of humiliating defeats and shame, didn’t you know ??? Therefore, over the past 15 years, the Blue, Turkish, Nordic streams have appeared and the North - 2 is being completed, and the energy industry of Russia torn to shreds is lying near its own torn to shreds economy, the gloom behind and the hopeless gloom ahead ... Author, wish from the whole liberal heart my country will continue to suffer such devastating defeats, and then drink poison !!!
    1. yury semru Offline
      yury semru (yury semru) 30 December 2019 13: 19
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      And I’m not expecting from the author of other articles. I already told him that he is an "optimist."
  2. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 30 December 2019 12: 53
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    Quote: YUG64
    The author, with all my liberal heart, wish my country to continue to suffer such devastating defeats, and then drink poison !!!

    I am not a liberal. I, in fact, am a person of diametrically opposed, left-wing views.
    And about the poison, your speeches are on your shoulders. smile
    PS Russia is not only your personal country. Not all people consider management decisions to be correct.
    1. YUG64 Offline
      YUG64 (Yuri) 30 December 2019 14: 31
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      If Bulgaria again let Gazprom down and merge its part of the Turkish Stream transit line, then it will be possible to really put out the lights. When everything is ready, the Russian company will be asked to exit, and the pipelines built at our expense in Europe will be used for the needs of LNG, TANAP and EastMed and other alternative Russian projects.

      This, excuse me, what is it based on ?? You would really get acquainted with the capabilities of the same TANAPA and at the same time the amount of American LNG supplied, as well as its cost in comparison with Russian. God forbid someone like you to make the same managerial decisions, which, in your opinion, are wrong .. But here we’re dying out the pages in the style of “we are all dead” - yes, I’m taking off my hat !!!) PS Someone in the world, except for you, still doubts that the joint venture -2 will be completed in 2020 ?? - just wondering??)
    2. isofat Offline
      isofat (Sergei) 30 December 2019 14: 54
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      Quote: Marzhetsky
      ... I, in fact, am a person of diametrically opposed, left-wing views.

      Quote: Marzhetsky
      ... Not all people consider management decisions to be correct.

      Socialism will be built by people who have mastered perfectly all the nuances of the capitalist mode of production, and not by people with "oblique" views.
  3. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 30 December 2019 13: 37
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    Quote: yury semru
    And I’m not expecting from the author of other articles. I already told him that he is an "optimist"

    I do not hide that I am a pessimist. That's just my pessimism, unfortunately, is increasingly justified. Alas.
    But no one forbids you to be optimistic.
  4. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 30 December 2019 13: 44
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    There are plenty of clowns who, not waiting for the result, begin to be rude. And when the result comes true, fools pretend to be as if they did not write anything and were not rude! And today, 13h 42 min Moscow time, an agreement between Gazprom and Ukraine has not yet been signed. There is no information in the news so far. Ukraine, having received penalties, wanted more!
    1. YUG64 Offline
      YUG64 (Yuri) 30 December 2019 14: 20
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      Ukraine is “non-existent” only on paper, is this news for someone?)) Well, they won’t sign it — they will prove it to the world once again, as well as their lack of maturity. And what is the tragedy for Gazprom and Russia as a whole ??
  5. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 30 December 2019 16: 12
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    Unfortunately, whatever one may say, this can not be called anything other than defeat.

    SP2 is the current trouble. The option that the Swiss will finish is not yet excluded.
    What transit cost are you talking about? There is no agreement yet. Negotiations are over. The contract is not signed.
    This, by the way, saddens me. Without transit, there are very big risks that the gas transmission system will fail and Ukraine will be without gas, because the gas distribution system is connected to the gas distribution system. And who will rake this chaos?
    And in general, it becomes unpleasant to read you. What did Putin have to do in 2014? Do not take the Crimea or capture the whole of Ukraine? To then babysit with these capricious freeloaders?
    And the supply of large quantities of LNG to Europe is simply not possible. Not only because it is more expensive, but also for physical and chemical reasons. We have to build different pipes and storages for different gases. Europe will not do that. If interested, I will explain separately.
    And the "slide game" has already begun. Involuntarily. Due to overcrowded storage and warm winters.
  6. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) 30 December 2019 16: 24
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    Gazprom, in the situation with Nord Stream-2, has shown that it is controlled by rams who think only of their pocket.
    1. boriz Offline
      boriz (boriz) 30 December 2019 19: 53
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      Gazprom is one of the most effective companies not even in the Russian Federation, but in the world. And if the taxes deducted to the budget of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are sent to help the US in distress, then this is not Gazprom’s fault. There is Oreshkin, Nabiullina ....

      There are questions, there are answers.
  7. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 31 December 2019 07: 53
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    Quote: isofat
    Socialism will be built by people who have mastered perfectly all the nuances of the capitalist mode of production, and not by people with "oblique" views.

    And such things are discussed by one who does not know where the Kaliningrad region is located ... recourse
    1. isofat Offline
      isofat (Sergei) 31 December 2019 09: 50
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      Quote: Marzhetsky
      And such things are discussed by one who does not know where the Kaliningrad region is located ...

      You are distorting now, Mr. Writer. The Baltic states and the Kaliningrad region are not the same thing.

      Quote: Marzhetsky
      Trying to be as honest with readers as possible ...

      Trying, but you can’t be honest. You have just proven your dishonesty.
  8. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 31 December 2019 07: 59
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    Quote: boriz
    SP2 is the current trouble. The option that the Swiss will finish is not yet excluded.
    What transit cost are you talking about? There is no agreement yet. Negotiations are over. The contract is not signed.

    https://ria.ru/20191230/1563016679.html
    и
    https://vz.ru/news/2019/12/31/1016371.html

    I do not set the task of writing "nice." Pleasant propaganda, and so enough.
    I try to be as honest as possible with readers, but the truth is not always pleasant, alas.
  9. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 31 December 2019 08: 04
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    Quote: YUG64
    God forbid someone like you to put in the very same managerial decisions, which, in your opinion, are wrong ..

    Well, you have the rulers and top managers you deserve. That's for sure. smile
  10. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 31 December 2019 12: 01
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    The contract was signed at night. The transit price is the same.
    Happy New Year, everyone!
  11. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 31 December 2019 12: 37
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    Yes, I forgot the link.

    https://strana.ua/news/242234-stavka-tranzita-haza-ne-vyrosla.html
  12. ss29 Offline
    ss29 1 January 2020 02: 19
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    In principle, much will turn out that way, they will complete the SP-2, but it will fall into the energy package.