New transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine undermines Poland’s plans

The signing by Gazprom of a new transit agreement with Ukraine is widely called the “defeat” of Russia. However, upon closer examination of the issue, the latter is not such. In addition, if anyone is called a “victim”, it is Poland, which received an extremely unpleasant surprise on New Year's Eve.


Not a single European country has ever expected failure in negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian sides like Poland. Its gas transit agreement with Gazprom ends in the spring of 2020. And if the supply of blue fuel through Ukraine had completely ceased since January 1, then the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would have a powerful argument, allowing us to put pressure on our "gas giant" and dictate its terms. In addition, the “enterprising” Poland planned to sell gas to Ukraine, which was left with nothing. However, Warsaw has now lost all its trump cards in the negotiation process with Russia. And our country is unlikely to make any concessions.

The conclusion of a new contract with Ukraine was extremely necessary, since the construction time of the Nord Stream 2 is delayed, and we would not be able to fulfill our gas supply obligations to the Europeans. Naturally, our American "partners" would occupy the vacant niche without delay.

Under the terms of the agreement, starting in 2021, the volume of pumping through Ukraine will be reduced to 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year. By that time, we will have time to complete the "Nord Stream - 2" and load the southern streams. Thus, the aforementioned volume does not exceed much that we need as a guarantee.

Now, if suddenly in the upcoming negotiations Poland decides to completely abandon transit, we will compensate for it through Nezalezhnaya. In addition, the contract signed by Gazprom will prevent Ukraine from fulfilling its long-held dream of fully integrating its gas transportation system with Europe.

As a result, the only argument in favor of those who speak of Russia's defeat is the payment by our "gas giant" of three billion dollars in a lawsuit by the Stockholm arbitration. However, this is more a blunder of Gazprom lawyers, which basically does not solve anything.

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  1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 29 December 2019 09: 57
    -3
    This is how we would fool Poland with our new Ukrainian friends?
    1. commbatant Offline commbatant
      commbatant (Sergei) 29 December 2019 13: 45
      +3
      Quote: Arkharov
      This is how we would fool Poland with our new Ukrainian friends?

      Think of your comrades from GAZPROM and NAFTOGAZ as one gang, and you will have a common understanding of how and who wants to profit and make money on the "orphans" from the EU ...
  2. commbatant Offline commbatant
    commbatant (Sergei) 29 December 2019 13: 42
    +2
    However, this is more a blunder of Gazprom lawyers, which basically does not solve anything.

    In international arbitration there was not close

    Gazprom lawyers

    - Our interests there have always been represented by English law firms ....

    Its gas transit agreement with Gazprom ends in the spring of 2020. And if the supply of blue fuel through Ukraine had completely ceased since January 1, then the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would have a powerful argument, allowing us to put pressure on our "gas giant" and dictate its terms. In addition, the “enterprising” Poland planned to sell gas to Ukraine, which was left with nothing.

    Do not forget that 80% of Polish thermal power plants operate on Russian (possibly now Donetsk) coal, Poland, paying the EU permanent fines for violating EU environmental standards, apparently decided to modernize its thermal power plants (apparently, due to EU subsidies ), transferring to gas (this is a necessary measure, because Poland does not care about emissions, otherwise it would continue to pay fines), both Russian and American LNG ..., and here it is.
    So

    in the spring of 2020

    The Russian Federation will twist its hands (by stopping the supply of coal or increasing its value, offsetting the price of an increase in gas transit through its territory) to Poland, and not vice versa ....
    1. alexander bald Offline alexander bald
      alexander bald (alexander bald) 29 December 2019 23: 36
      -4
      That's how it BEGINS, then you will ...! In the meantime, Russia is twisting its arms.
      1. The comment was deleted.
  3. filippino lippi Offline filippino lippi
    filippino lippi (filippino lippi) 30 December 2019 15: 52
    +1
    Blimey! This is Putin! The history of trade did not know such a "Tricky" AGREEMENT! This is where the President's "Talent" manifested itself! This "CONTRACT" is even "SWEET" of the Pension Reform Law, which has ruined the PEOPLE OF RUSSIA! What is left for the President to "DO" in order to enter HISTORY as the most ANTINATED RULER?
  4. T. Henks Offline T. Henks
    T. Henks (Igor) 30 December 2019 18: 17
    +1
    Insanity grows stronger. And what a heading! And you won’t understand who got bogged down. It's time to re-read the classics about what is good and what is bad.
  5. Dzafdet Offline Dzafdet
    Dzafdet (Sergei) 30 December 2019 20: 04
    0
    They haven’t signed anything yet ... So there’s nothing to talk about yet .. We will wait for the end of negotiations ..