Not a single European country has ever expected failure in negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian sides like Poland. Its gas transit agreement with Gazprom ends in the spring of 2020. And if the supply of blue fuel through Ukraine had completely ceased since January 1, then the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would have a powerful argument, allowing us to put pressure on our "gas giant" and dictate its terms. In addition, the “enterprising” Poland planned to sell gas to Ukraine, which was left with nothing. However, Warsaw has now lost all its trump cards in the negotiation process with Russia. And our country is unlikely to make any concessions.
The conclusion of a new contract with Ukraine was extremely necessary, since the construction time of the Nord Stream 2 is delayed, and we would not be able to fulfill our gas supply obligations to the Europeans. Naturally, our American "partners" would occupy the vacant niche without delay.
Under the terms of the agreement, starting in 2021, the volume of pumping through Ukraine will be reduced to 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year. By that time, we will have time to complete the "Nord Stream - 2" and load the southern streams. Thus, the aforementioned volume does not exceed much that we need as a guarantee.
Now, if suddenly in the upcoming negotiations Poland decides to completely abandon transit, we will compensate for it through Nezalezhnaya. In addition, the contract signed by Gazprom will prevent Ukraine from fulfilling its long-held dream of fully integrating its gas transportation system with Europe.
As a result, the only argument in favor of those who speak of Russia's defeat is the payment by our "gas giant" of three billion dollars in a lawsuit by the Stockholm arbitration. However, this is more a blunder of Gazprom lawyers, which basically does not solve anything.