The United States gave Russia trillion "super-profits"
On May 8, 2018, President Donald Trump announced his unilateral withdrawal from the “Iranian nuclear deal” and a return to the sanctions policy in relation to the Islamic Republic. American restrictive measures will be renewed in 2 stages, which can take from 90 to 180 days. Already, experts are trying to predict what impact these events will have on Tehran and Russia, which is one of Iran’s top ten trading partners.
The Islamic Republic over many years of being under international pressure has learned to survive on its own. The ban on settlements in dollars with it will not have a serious impact, since Tehran switched to settlements in euros. The largest trading partner of Iran is the People’s Republic of China. Last year, trade with it reached the level of 23,8 billion dollars. In second place is the United Arab Emirates, the European Union is only in third place, as of 2015, trade amounted to 5,2 billion euros.
Many countries of the Old World sharply opposed the policies of Donald Trump, but experts predict that in practice, European business, being put in a situation of choice between the Iranian and American markets, will not choose Tehran. For comparison, Russian-Iranian trade as of 2017 did not exceed $ 1,7 billion and will not be seriously affected by the return of sanctions.
The oil market expects a much greater effect from the resumption of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Tehran supplies most of its oil to China and India, about a quarter of its volume goes to the European Union market. Iran has built a new terminal to export its own brand of "black gold" under the name West Karoun to consumers directly. Exports of Iranian oil, which now stands at 2 million barrels per day, may simultaneously fall by half a million barrels per day after the execution of the decision of the American president. Amid expectations of US restrictive measures and escalation of the conflict in Syria between Israel and Iran, oil prices went up, EBRD analysts expect them to exceed the value of $ 80 per barrel in the next two years.
The increase in energy prices led to an increase in optimistic sentiment in Russia: the Ministry of Finance believes that the budget will be able to get five times more revenue under this item than it had originally planned. Thanks to rising oil prices, the federal budget of the Russian Federation for the first time since 2011 becomes surplus. The Ministry of Finance believes that the country will receive the "extra" 1,7 trillion rubles. In the next two years, oil and gas revenues, which make up about a third of the Russian budget, will increase quite significantly.
But experts are in no hurry to reassure everyone who is hooked on the oil and gas needle. Some oil shortages caused by the situation with Iran will have a short-term effect on the world market. First, the United States can increase production of its shale oil, which is now setting records at 10,62 million barrels per day. Secondly, the OPEC + deal is likely to sink into oblivion after 2018, and OPEC member countries will increase their production of “black gold”.
To summarize, I would like to express the hope that the new Russian government will intelligently use the gift of fate in the form of additional oil and gas revenues.
The Islamic Republic over many years of being under international pressure has learned to survive on its own. The ban on settlements in dollars with it will not have a serious impact, since Tehran switched to settlements in euros. The largest trading partner of Iran is the People’s Republic of China. Last year, trade with it reached the level of 23,8 billion dollars. In second place is the United Arab Emirates, the European Union is only in third place, as of 2015, trade amounted to 5,2 billion euros.
Many countries of the Old World sharply opposed the policies of Donald Trump, but experts predict that in practice, European business, being put in a situation of choice between the Iranian and American markets, will not choose Tehran. For comparison, Russian-Iranian trade as of 2017 did not exceed $ 1,7 billion and will not be seriously affected by the return of sanctions.
The oil market expects a much greater effect from the resumption of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Tehran supplies most of its oil to China and India, about a quarter of its volume goes to the European Union market. Iran has built a new terminal to export its own brand of "black gold" under the name West Karoun to consumers directly. Exports of Iranian oil, which now stands at 2 million barrels per day, may simultaneously fall by half a million barrels per day after the execution of the decision of the American president. Amid expectations of US restrictive measures and escalation of the conflict in Syria between Israel and Iran, oil prices went up, EBRD analysts expect them to exceed the value of $ 80 per barrel in the next two years.
The increase in energy prices led to an increase in optimistic sentiment in Russia: the Ministry of Finance believes that the budget will be able to get five times more revenue under this item than it had originally planned. Thanks to rising oil prices, the federal budget of the Russian Federation for the first time since 2011 becomes surplus. The Ministry of Finance believes that the country will receive the "extra" 1,7 trillion rubles. In the next two years, oil and gas revenues, which make up about a third of the Russian budget, will increase quite significantly.
But experts are in no hurry to reassure everyone who is hooked on the oil and gas needle. Some oil shortages caused by the situation with Iran will have a short-term effect on the world market. First, the United States can increase production of its shale oil, which is now setting records at 10,62 million barrels per day. Secondly, the OPEC + deal is likely to sink into oblivion after 2018, and OPEC member countries will increase their production of “black gold”.
To summarize, I would like to express the hope that the new Russian government will intelligently use the gift of fate in the form of additional oil and gas revenues.
Information