Transit agreement: Russia made concessions with hidden goals

The negative assessments that rained down on all sides of the conclusion of a new transit agreement between RAO Gazprom and the Ukrainian side can, of course, be understood ... After all, what a good opportunity was to “put in place” our neighbors, which had pretty much gotten our nerves, "Show them who is in charge," and ... So what? Despite all the obvious, at first glance, deficiencies and disadvantages for our country of the agreements reached, it is still worth taking a second look. Unclouded by emotions and directed to the future, and quite close. And at the same time reflect on several questions, objective answers to which can seriously change the perception of what is happening.

It may even lead to the understanding that, having made quite serious concessions and sacrifices, Russia now makes an attempt to achieve much more serious and ambitious goals than the next “education” of arrogant and greedy “non-brothers” with the help of a gas pipe. Moreover, an attempt that has a very real chance of success.

Why doesn't Kiev celebrate victory?

Contrary to what seemed to be a uniquely winning turn of events, there is no explosion at all of Russophobic-“patriotic” enthusiasm in the style of “over-reliance” and “thought-blowing”, which are often manifested on much less significant occasions. In order to see this, it is enough to monitor the local media, which I personally have been doing regularly and in depth the last few days. The attitude towards the agreements reached is more than restrained. It is understandable - in fact, Kiev did not win any victory. He simply prevented (rather even delayed) a complete defeat. After all, they promised to “stand up to the last for national interests” and to knock out a 10-year contract from “Muscovites”, all payments on the courts and many more “goodies”. The output was completely different. According to the classification of the unforgettable Ostap Bender, this, of course, is not "from a dead donkey's ears", but certainly not "a key to the apartment where the money lies." Moscow made it clear - exactly how much it still intends to tolerate Kiev in its “partners”. And the key word here is “bye” ... Actually, the main speakers of the Ukrainian side on this issue do not hide their own disappointment and deep concern. Yury Vitrenko, Executive Director of Naftogaz, openly calls the contract a “compromise that is difficult for both parties.” Yes, they got half of what they demanded and, most importantly, for an extremely limited period. Moreover, according to Vitrenko, Naftogaz, as a state-owned company, had to appear in one of the parties to the deal, because Gazprom refused to sign anything with the newborns by local operators, not wanting to “take over all the risks of Ukrainian legislation and regulation, especially the risks of changes in the regulatory framework that can happen every day ... ”This is a literal quote from Vitrenko.

“Throwing away” the Russian side, disrupting supplies to Europe or training something of the same kind, then blaming the “separate operator of the gas transmission system”, which by that time will have a trace of cold, will fail. Ukraine will be responsible as a state. The result obtained at the exit turned out to be so pale and slurred, so similar in the eyes of the “patriots” to the next terry “harass” that the very Vitrenko immediately began to flood with the nightingale about his intentions to fully demand in “international arbitration” from Russia for “assets in Crimea, which belong to the Naftogaz group. This, they say, transit agreements (where there is a clause on the "recall of arbitration and legal claims against each other, where the final decision has not yet been made") does not apply! Great again ... "Logic" in Ukrainian. With all this, I would like to ask a question: What would a refusal to transit give our country specifically on the "Ukrainian front"? Some may think that after an ominous hissing came from the empty pipes, consumers would turn off (which, incidentally, is far from a fact), and prices for “blue fuel” would soar even higher, the people of Ukraine in in a single impulse would rise and dare the "Maidan" power and its current last ones? Not funny, gentlemen ... Not funny even than Zelensky. The maximum, to which something like this would lead, is to a new round of animal Russophobia, which has just recently calmed down in the "uncovered" area. Believe me, at the current level of brainwashing of the “society” there, it would have worked. What else? The money that will be "fed" economyto say the least, an unfriendly state? Well, if you really demonstrate real integrity in this matter, then you need to start with the supply of petroleum products. And not only to Ukraine, but also to Belarus. And also some others, I will not list. Transit is an important, but far from the only "help" to Kiev, believe me. And, by the way, the option with a transit of 60, and even more so, 40 billion cubic meters a year by Ukrainian experts was once considered as "pessimistic."

Why is Washington not happy?

However, much more interesting than the languid and crumpled "joy" of Ukraine, for us is the reaction of those who in reality "rule the ball" in this country - the United States. It would seem that there must be no limit to jubilation: the interests of the “allies” were defended! It’s just right to arrange a parade with fireworks on your Thanksgiving ... But no. You can't hear something victorious fanfare. And all because for Washington, any (that is, absolutely any!) Option of continuing the transit of Russian gas to Europe is nothing more than a blow from the sickle to the very place that you thought about. This winter, the “unreliability” of our Gazprom was to be proved, and the “need to diversify supplies” in order to “strengthen energy security” was to become an axiom at all. At that time, “saving” tankers filled to the top with LNG were already striving for a freezing Europe across the ocean ... Last month, the Americans literally filled the Old World with liquefied “blue fuel”, bringing its export volumes there to almost 3 billion cubic meters. The United States is forced to literally impose its gas on European consumers, while dropping prices to utter indecentness. That's just such a massive expansion - not at all a reason for their joy. Firstly, the price of LNG that has fallen below a certain limit makes its production simply unprofitable. This problem is now fully faced by Australia, which has plunged crazy money into this industry and suffers huge losses as a result. But it’s much more interesting for us just “secondly”: at the current stage, losses in overstocked LNG Europe are borne by just local traders, forced either to sell fuel at a loss or to refuse contracts. At the same time ... be sure to pay the price of liquefaction of overseas fuel that was unnecessary to anyone!

Do you think this situation will contribute to the growth of popularity of American LNG in the Old World? While the United States is trying to “survive” Gazprom from there, they have already lost their main, vital gas market - China. And he went there ... well, you all know exactly who. This winter was supposed to be the Rubicon for European investors, having crossed that they would refuse to work with Russian pipeline supplies and would rush en masse to invest in American gas terminals. But this will not happen. Of course, a drop in prices is extremely unprofitable for us. However, in the long run, in the current scenario, it is Russia that has all chances to remain the main supplier of energy carriers for the most important European market. Moreover, in the confrontation that is now unfolding, if we look at it in the perspective of the “bad and good cops” so beloved by the Americans, it was the United States that turned out to be in the role of not just bad, but, to put it mildly, alternatively gifted cop. Absolutely unpredictable, spitting on the law, someone's rights there and used to pursuing his own exclusively by brute force. What does it look like in the eyes of Brussels, Berlin, Paris? The Russians made a compromise, but the United States has already reached the limit in its attempts to stop the hated Nord Stream-2. Rather, they went beyond all permissible limits ... No wonder the very European Commission, which warmly welcomed the conclusion of a transit agreement between Moscow and Kiev, very sharply opposed Washington’s latest sanctions, calling them "unacceptable in principle." Germany quite rightly called this lawlessness a direct interference in its internal affairs. True, they promise to abstain from retaliatory measures there, but they will undoubtedly draw conclusions - and in no way in Washington’s favor.

Why is Moscow calm?

Relations between the United States and Europe are now strained as never before in recent decades. The “allies” on both sides of the Atlantic are on the verge of a trade war, especially approaching it after an odious decision by the World Trade Organization, which recognized Washington’s right to impose duties on Europeans of $ 7.5 billion for allegedly “illegal subsidies” of Airbus. Most likely, France and Germany will get the most. Knowing Donald Trump's love for “cowboy” methods of resolving economic disputes, the worst outcome can be assumed with a very high degree of probability. In Europe, they understand this perfectly and act accordingly. I will give just one specific example: the four “whales” of the financial business there, the German Deutsche Bank, the British Barclays, as well as the Swiss Credit Suisse and UBS, have withdrawn about $ 280 billion from the US subsidiaries over the past three years. Not the best indicator for Americans. At the same time, European financiers, completely not publicizing their own actions, are extremely active in supporting Russia in its desire to refuse to the maximum to the dollar. Here, in fact, is the clearest example: French Minister of Economy Bruno Le Mer, who recently visited France on an official visit, stated in absolutely open text that he intends to “find an acceptable innovative solution that meets international legal standards” that allows ignoring US sanctions that prevent French banks from investing to our country. Moreover, only six months have been set aside for this matter - the pace for such questions is directly rushing.

The situation is similar with the Germans. The local Bild, I remember, almost fought hysterically when the German business elite amicably and smoothly threw the crowd to a meeting with Vladimir Putin in December. At the same time, its representatives “did not even try to criticize him for the murder committed in Berlin”, but instead began to heatedly discuss all sorts of contacts and contracts. “How can they ?!” - the scandalous edition inquired angrily. And so ... Siemens President Joe Keather snugly sat right on the left hand of Vladimir Vladimirovich and eagerly listened to his every word - for there are billions at stake. This is really important, and not gas transit through the “non-transitory” one, which will be safely bent, after a maximum of five years, and, most likely, much earlier. This is under the condition that our European partners (the Germans, in the first place) will support the interests of Russia, albeit bearing in mind their own mercantile interests. There is no other way in the business world. And we have much more important and significant issues ahead. For example, the fate of the Northern Sea Route, where the Americans and I can not at all diverge on the opposite courses. A lot will depend on who Europe supports in this conflict. And military-strategic moments should not be discounted. They are, perhaps, primarily in the light of the fact that right now Washington is striving to turn the Old World either into an outpost to intensify its operations against Russia, or even into a springboard for an attack on it. And it would be very nice for us to have more and more people like the deputies of the German Bundestag openly declaring that Germany does not need either American LNG or American nuclear weapons. The game goes on for a long time, without compromises and tactical retreats it can not do without it. At least for now.

And, by the way, here's another thing ... A complete stop of the transit of Russian gas would inevitably turn the Ukrainian gas transportation system into a pile of scrap metal, worthless in general. And why does it not occur to anyone that perhaps Russia is now simply saving property, considered as its own, from destruction? In a more or less foreseeable future. Why not?
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  1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 23 December 2019 09: 02
    Again, it looks like a "multi-move" of 2 moves?
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 23 December 2019 09: 30
    So, what about the water supply to the Crimea from the Dnieper? Decided not to link gas transit to Ukraine with water transit to Crimea? But what about tourists with water shortages in Crimea?
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 23 December 2019 23: 33
      There is enough water for tourists. There is an agricultural problem. But they are changing the structure, there is enough rice in the Kuban, it is not necessary to grow it in the steppe.
      And this water is shit, the lower reaches of the Dnieper, a gutter. In Crimea, it is believed due to water, for many years there has been an increased statistics on oncology. Maybe the people are getting older.
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 23 December 2019 23: 40
        And for tourists - you need to collect at least what is. On the South Coast there from under the mountains many small rivers and streams flow. I did not see to be collected. Flow into the sea. I'm in 2016 there was a week in Mriya, so right there on the territory of Mriya, already below the road, a small river flows directly from the cliff. For the needs of a boarding house, it is taken away (how much is it necessary there?), And the rest, after 150 cascades, flows into the sea. Nobody needs it. And how many of them are along the coast ...
    2. Vasil K. Offline Vasil K.
      Vasil K. (Vasil K.) 24 December 2019 10: 39
      Drink the unfortunate tourists! .. As if the problem was to deliver bottled water by the sea. Now by train.
    3. Helga Ionelis Offline Helga Ionelis
      Helga Ionelis (Helga Ionelis) 25 December 2019 11: 08
      What kind of shortage for tourists are you writing here? There are no problems with drinking water in Crimea. There is not enough water in the north of the peninsula for agricultural irrigation. Do not write nonsense without possessing information.
  3. Andrey Goncharov (Andrey Goncharov) 23 December 2019 09: 32
    Oh well. An autopsy will show whose kung fu is stronger ...
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 23 December 2019 09: 40
    No matter what news - everywhere someone voices "this is Putin's secret plan"
    Berezovsky, Bulk, Serdyukov, PMC Wagner ...

    In fact, money does not smell if the profits are good. Here you can agree not only with Ukraine, but with terrorist accomplices.

    And, indeed, "An autopsy will show whose kung fu is stronger ..."
    1. Dan Offline Dan
      Dan (Daniel) 23 December 2019 10: 42
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      In fact, money does not smell if the profits are good. Here you can agree not only with Ukraine, but with terrorist accomplices.

      I wonder how you will sing if you suddenly get paid secondary education and a clinic? Will the money smell? The true opinion will appear when the wrong hands touch your tender places. In the meantime, paper (keyboard) will endure everything. If only to splash slop, after all there will be no return .....
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 24 December 2019 08: 49
        Money doesn’t smell - it’s to our elite ...
        There is no secondary yet, but the Higher is already becoming paid for non-poor ....
        And other people's hands have been rummaging in wallets for 30 years, and for 10 years at "...... places."
        All the same, they choose who they need ....
  5. Monster_Fat Offline Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat (What's the difference) 23 December 2019 10: 08
    And, well, it began, as predicted, speeches like - "Well, finally, let's leave the kaklov without gas and deprive them of the possibility of stealing this gas and financing from the Russian pocket", together they were replaced by speeches - "continue to pump gas to Ukraine and pay them an indemnity .... - Yes, this is a HSP, "and indeed, Russia has one benefit from this." yes
  6. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 23 December 2019 10: 33
    The aging authorities are increasingly choosing options for surrender, and not only in Ukraine ... And the explanations about the super long-term prospect are completely fabulous. There is funding for the Nazi state-this is clearly true. Everything is more likely determined by momentary interests or hope for them.
    1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 23 December 2019 14: 00
      Ukraine has just young power.
      1. S.V.YU Offline S.V.YU
        S.V.YU 24 December 2019 13: 40
        That puppets are new and young! And the power of the State Department is old!
  7. Mihail55 Offline Mihail55
    Mihail55 (Michael) 23 December 2019 12: 10
    The litter of straw ... Too old to believe such an absurdity. The result will still be ... they wanted the best!
  8. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 23 December 2019 13: 45
    I went nuts on the volume of transit for next year. It seems that Gazprom has prepared to fill up the market not only the United States, but also Norway with their platforms, and Algeria with their restless neighbors. 200 billion cubic meters per year of export to Europe, with their needs of 450 and full storage - for the summer it’s worth a look ... what
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 23 December 2019 23: 23
      In early autumn, Gazprom announced volumes of transit that it would not provide with cash pipes. 50 billion cubic meters.
      Groningen closes next year, drilling rigs are raised in Denmark (the bottom is lowered from gas production, they should have done it in 2018), production is falling in Norway. Only Groningen-12 billion. Well, a lot of little things: closed nuclear power plants, thermal stations ...
  9. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 23 December 2019 15: 11
    As for empty pipes in Ukraine, it’s still how to look ... It would certainly add to the discontent of the authorities of the people who are independent of the country, especially if the Russian Federation imposed sanctions on the sale of coal to Ukraine ...
  10. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 23 December 2019 15: 49
    Where does a lawyer start when defending a criminal? That's right - to denigrate the victim and make the offender almost a "messiah". Because, speaking really:
    1. Water in the Crimea.
    2. Since January 1, the prohibition of the Russian language in schools, etc.
    3. Murders and shelling, trade blockade in the LDNR. In one word - the genocide of the Russian man! ANYWHERE in Ukraine the interests of Russia and Russians are not protected and are not taken into account! And it turns out that the author changed his shoes on the go in the interests of the authorities. Because everything that is written is the author's wishes. And the reality is even worse. And if I'm wrong, then the author in the next article will tell us about the specific successes of the "Kremlin's Secret Plan".

    This happens sometimes
    have your own taste and look and opinion -
    hold on to them no doubt.
  11. aries2200 Offline aries2200
    aries2200 (aries) 23 December 2019 16: 19
    Everything will come to a situation where Frau Merkel and all the European rulers in foam will lay the pipes themselves, cursing Ukraine, and Miller will sit and drink a cup of tea - his little finger to the side, like the Russian merchant merchant ....
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 24 December 2019 12: 17
      Miller will sit and drink a tea - little finger to the side

      What is he doing all this time, while there is gas, he will be enough to cover all fines and forfeits, and he will still remain for the premium.
      And it will be missed, it will be necessary to stretch the effective thread somewhere else.
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  13. Upmost Offline Upmost
    Upmost (Innocent) 23 December 2019 20: 21
    And, by the way, here's another thing ... A complete stop of the transit of Russian gas would inevitably turn the Ukrainian gas transportation system into a pile of scrap metal, worthless in general. And why does it not occur to anyone that perhaps Russia is now simply saving property, considered as its own, from destruction? In a more or less foreseeable future. Why not?

    Author: Alexander Neukropny

    Well, that was what was required to be clarified at the end of the article.
    The "noteworthy patriot" Necropny "on his knee" (as his Great Teacher-multi-walker) composed another "self-justification" for the Kremlin's failures, and then posted it.

    Siemens President Joe Keyser snuggled in right on the left hand of Vladimir Vladimirovich and eagerly listened to his every word - for billions are at stake

    Here - yes, Neurocourse honed his language skills.
    With which we congratulate him.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 23 December 2019 20: 38
      Upmost, I understand your efforts to make a good face with a bad game, please use our freedom of speech.
      Just do not forget, each new president of Ukraine will now put his signature on loyalty to Russia!
  14. filippino lippi Offline filippino lippi
    filippino lippi (filippino lippi) 24 December 2019 07: 59
    THE PEOPLE OF RUSSIA are so stupid that they do not understand what kind of "Deep Thoughtful Operation" the Kremlin has rotated by concluding an EXPRESSLY ANTI-INTERNATIONAL, seeming from the first time, AGREEMENT on the transit of gas to Europe through Ukraine! The KREMLIN's cunning! How! This must be the same, what a quirky MIND the KREMLIN has!
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