Gazprom lost, but escaped the gas war with Ukraine

December 22 2019 67

So, there will be no winter “gas war” with Ukraine. The Russian authorities met the deadline of the ultimatum issued by Kiev and surrendered. There will be a new transit agreement, and its terms were dictated to Gazprom from the West.

We warned of such an outcome in advance. On December 12, she appeared on Reporter article with a prophetic title: "5 years and 40 billion cubic meters of gas for Ukraine: what Putin and Gazprom are silent about." The predictions outlined there provoked a stormy reaction among the cheer-patriotic public, demonstrating the stages of denial and anger.

Alas, they were justified to the point, turning out to be even a little worse. Why did we "sail" in the end.

5 years

As we expected, the contract will be concluded “somewhere in the middle” between the periods of 1 and 10 years, that is, for 5 years, with the possibility of extension. Kiev insisted on the maximum term, top managers of Gazprom haughtily talked about 1 year. Already in the media, the theme is being played out that we again outwitted everyone, since we played to increase rates. This is a victory or a defeat of our "national treasure", everyone will decide for himself.

40 billion cubic meters

In 2020, Gazprom will have to pump all 65 billion cubic meters of gas, but in the next 4 years this volume will be reduced to the desired 40 billion. Again everyone outplayed?

The question is debatable. Even launching Nord Stream-1 and Turkish Stream by January 2, our monopolist will not be able to fully fulfill its obligations without the Ukrainian GTS. He would have to get out with the purchase of LNG, handing it over to the Europeans at a reduced price, so as not to get on fines. In a sense, the preservation of Ukrainian transit is a plus. On the other hand, Russia is again firmly attached to Nezalezhnaya. The question is, was it worth it to fence a garden with expensive bypass pipelines if no one would let us leave it anyway?

Transit payments

They will grow up. As from the next year the volume of gas pumped through Ukraine will decrease, it intends to compensate for the shortfall in revenue through tariff increases. The figures are not yet called, apparently, so as not to upset the even more cheers-patriotic public.

Fines

Gazprom will pay everything, to the last cent, that Ukraine was awarded the Stockholm arbitration. Moreover, apparently, not with gas discounts, but with real money.

The word "fiasco" suggests itself. I do not want to exaggerate even more, but the author considers it necessary to make another, not too pleasant forecast. It is associated with the dates indicated in the new transit agreement.

Gazprom is beginning to really squeeze out of the European market. Poland, one of the largest long-standing buyers of Russian gas, intends to abandon it since 2022. Turkey, which we had high hopes for, sharply reduced the consumption of our “blue fuel”. LNG from the USA, Qatar and Azerbaijan is rapidly crowding it. Reasons for this and economic (there is a certain decline and depreciation of the national currency), and political. The latter include a clash with Russia in Syria on opposite sides of the barricades, and also in the long term - in Libya. Ankara is clearly not averse to reducing the degree of dependence on the Kremlin, while Gazprom is firmly seated on its hook with its Turkish Stream.

All this is happening against the backdrop of the rapidly growing importance of LNG in the global energy sector. The entire coast of Europe is built up with LNG terminals, and Donald Trump requires further expansion of the receiving infrastructure. New gas tankers are being built. The United States itself is currently actively expanding its export capacity of LNG, intending to significantly increase its share in the global market. Qatar also intends to increase exports by 43% by 2025, bringing them to 110 million tons of LNG annually.

The emergence of new volumes of gas on the market will have to be compensated by reducing someone’s share. It is already clear at the expense of whom this will happen. On the eve of the United States took sanctions against the new energy projects of Gazprom. The loss of a significant part of foreign exchange earnings will be a blow to the federal budget and the population. Recall that the “national treasure” warned of the end of the era of low gas prices in the country.

Taken together, this means that we have been given about 5 relatively calm years, after which truly difficult times will come when problems in the economy will begin to determine the agenda already in politics. Now everything is in the hands of the authorities, what they will spend this five-year period on: pulling next pipelines or doing industrialization and diversification of the economy in three shifts.

Information

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Sapsan136

+1

22 December 2019 11: 05

Sometimes it's better to fight than to get up ..... without a fight ...
1. The comment was deleted.
Oleg Kalugin

-1

22 December 2019 11: 09

Everything is clear, and that the enemies, like the partners, are not asleep, and that they are pushing and urging ...
Oh, I think I know about this ... Didn’t Gazprom talented managers know? I did not give secrets of open door?
This news is especially cool after a dialogue between Ukrainian journalists and Putin and the conclusion drawn by the GDP ... How did someone specifically predict ... such a slap in the face of V.V. ...
Okay, Profuka money, it’s half the trouble, but image losses in the peoples of Russia, this is a more dangerous thing .... Now the Sumerians are activated in social networks, they will begin to laugh and mock, as a result, the degree of love for the vertical of power will grow very much, as well as their ratings ... So drunk!
We are waiting for the pearls of the agitprom trolls, I wonder how they will manage the situation. The phrase don't "rock the boat" is already boring. "Secret plan" - already fed up)) The move with the awarding of Serdyukov? Exactly, Miller should have been awarded the GR title.
That's when everyone will understand that this is a secret plan and you should not rock the boat)))
1. S.V.YU
  
  +1
  
  23 December 2019 15: 56
  
  A joyful screech is already heard in Ukraine! And not without reason! But the leadership of the country and Gazprom receive millions of salaries! Isn’t it time to recover losses from him !?
steelmaker

+1

22 December 2019 11: 24

I would have put Ukraine on cancer for that kind of money. It is possible to arrange more than one Maidan and more than once to connect and disconnect, and again, if not to connect, then set up rulers loyal to Russia. If they kill in the Donbass, why should I spare Bendera? But our mother will sell our power for $, not like gas! And if in 2014 Putin was not limited only to Crimea, Russia would not have such a shame !!! Competent article.
1. Igor Pavlovich
  
  -12
  
  22 December 2019 12: 20
  
  And if in 2014 Putin hadn’t flooded into Crimea, Russia would not have such a shame !!!
  1. Port
    
    +5
    
    22 December 2019 12: 26
    
    And if in 2014 Putin hadn’t popped to Crimea
    
    And those who steal the Crimea from Russia during the collapse of the USSR, were afraid to ask the people like you, and in general, forget about the Crimea, no one will return it to you, you can, of course, try it if you’re tired of living.
  2. Sapsan136
    
    +5
    
    22 December 2019 12: 53
    
    It is high time to free all the lands of Russia, temporarily occupied. and the sooner the better ...
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. koss
    
    -1
    
    31 December 2019 00: 36
    
    Yes, well ... what would it be?
Marzhecki

+2

22 December 2019 12: 31

Quote: Igor Pavlovich
And if in 2014 Putin hadn’t flooded into Crimea, Russia would not have such a shame !!!

The problem is not that he popped into the Crimea, but that he stopped there, leaving everything else to the Americans.
Marzhecki

0

22 December 2019 12: 38

I can't help it. Here are some recent comments from local "analyst experts":

123 (123) December 15, 2019 11:01
It remains to publish an article with a forecast of a contract for 1-2 years and a pumping volume of 15-35 billion cubic meters annually, that Gazprom will pay everything, you can leave it unchanged, otherwise no one will be indignant and the Nostradamus cup for the 2019 season will be provided. good Very similar to the stories about the planet Nibiru, I’ll go away with a mean tear, crying again, everything is gone.

colyanpirogov (Nikolai Pirogov) December 16, 2019 16:30
Serezha ... wink you, it seems, are writing the fifth article about the same thing ... winked Not tired !? The people are tired already! ... Go to something more interesting !!! You have already spoken out on this subject ...

123 (123) December 15, 2019 13:06
Well, see you soon.

Gold words. good It remains only to clarify what exactly we will see which of the forecasts will come true. I look forward to an article about 1-2 years. So to speak, announce the whole list. sad In the meantime, stay in euphoria.

boriz (boriz) December 15, 2019 13:04 p.m.
It's time to stop referring to Ukrainian figures. Irresponsible trepachki.
Zelensky recently harnessed that there would be no decentralization of power. So what?

I heard from Putin that without a zero option for claims, there will be no contract. He has not said anything else.

polev66 (Alexander) December 15, 2019 13:07 PM
From the series, one grandmother said. The prize of the chief graphomaniac is provided.

boriz (boriz) December 16, 2019 12:31 p.m.
Well, the cherry on the cake:
https://ria.ru/20191213/1562323802.html
TRANSIT WILL NOT BE.

Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) December 18, 2019 17:13
Gazprom will STOP transit until March 2020.
1. The comment was deleted.
2. 123
  
  0
  
  22 December 2019 15: 23
  
  I can't help it. Here are some recent comments from local "analyst experts":
  
  That's noticeable. Sorry, my advice was not useful.
  
  It remains to publish an article with a forecast of a contract for 1-2 years and a pumping volume of 15-35 billion cubic meters annually
  
  Probably they prepared for the chiming clock? According to probability theory, the more forecasts, the greater the chance that one of the bottom will come true. Perhaps I, too, will not restrain myself and recall some forecasts on this topic:
  
  Now the new deadline for Gazprom is July 2020. Then European consumers will again begin to pump gas reserves into their storage facilities for the next heating season, in which bypass gas pipelines will be able to take part. But the coming winter will be “fun."
  
  Apparently, this time the "gas war" will be real, it will not end in two weeks, like the old ones. The pro-Western authorities in Kiev will fight with Gazprom until the last Ukrainian. 20.11.2019/XNUMX/XNUMX
  
  Back to the article.
  
  So, there will be no winter “gas war” with Ukraine. The Russian authorities met the deadline of the ultimatum issued by Kiev and surrendered. There will be a new transit agreement, and its terms were dictated to Gazprom from the West.
  
  First, we don’t know the conditions yet, only the pumping volume of 65 billion for the 2020th year and then for 40 billion for another 4 years. Once again, I propose to calmly wait for the new year and see how it all ends. The compromise is obvious; the surrender conclusion is premature. After all, they imposed it for 10 years. Let me remind you:
  
  It turns out that we need to reach the spring, when the issue of transit through Ukraine will become less acute, and bypass gas pipelines will work. In view of the foregoing, a big question becomes the hope of Independence to conclude a 10-year contract with Gazprom on enslaving terms. The Russian monopolist had previously denied such “happiness”, but now it offers to write off all mutual judicial claims. And he does it now much more confidently.
  
  I repeat, we do not yet know the conditions.
  
  On the other hand, Russia is again firmly attached to Nezalezhnaya.
  
  The author completely agrees with this statement and this is a political defeat.
  
  The question is, was it worth it to fence a garden with expensive bypass pipelines if no one would let us leave it anyway?
  
  Even as it was worth it. Firstly, the dependence has decreased significantly, and secondly, in the future it will completely disappear.
  
  They will grow up. As from the next year the volume of gas pumped through Ukraine will decrease, it intends to compensate for the shortfall in revenue through tariff increases. The figures are not yet called, apparently, so as not to upset the even more cheers-patriotic public.
  
  The conclusion is premature. Let's wait and see.
  
  Gazprom will pay everything, to the last cent, that Ukraine was awarded the Stockholm arbitration. Moreover, apparently, not with gas discounts, but with real money.
  
  Of course, after a court decision will pay. I will not return to the decision itself, I will only say that for me it was not obvious.
  
  Bottom line: From a geopolitical point of view, defeat and a serious, Russophobic regime will be funded for another 5 years. From the point of view of the economy, the conclusions are premature, we must wait for the details of the agreement.
  The author’s forecast for the ousting of Gazprom from the European market over the next five years will be discussed later, there is something to agree with, and also to argue with. Something tells me, the opportunity will be presented repeatedly.
  1. boriz
    
    +1
    
    22 December 2019 23: 54
    
    Both you and Marzhetsky argue without knowing the protocol. For example, Gazprom will pay until December 29.12.2019, XNUMX.
    But the whole tsimes of the situation has just reached me now.
    Read the post:
    
    https://narod-novosti.com/ekonomika/?p=chim-porazheniem-stal-dogovor-rossii-i-ukrainyi-po-gazu-&page=1&utm_source=finobzor.ru)
    
    - which is much more adequate than the one we are commenting on. And the phrase caught me:
    
    The second one. Ukraine itself will buy Russian gas not from Russia, but from Europe. That was the condition of the Ukrainian side. In exchange, they guaranteed ignoring domestic political protests. This is just a stroke to the portrait of the Ukrainian side in the negotiations: the hosts of the negotiation process sacrifice the interests of the country in exchange for personal kickbacks.
    
    In my comments below, you can see section 4 of the protocol. They are going to buy on the NCG hub at the prices of this hub. Physically will not be able to receive it from this hub (while maintaining at least some transit). So, Gazprom will supply it from the Russian Federation, and they will pay to the hub.
    So: Gazprom threw off the Ukrainian guys from the reverse circuits and sat on them himself. Kobolev had organized this before, and will twist it now. That's what they hired for. The money will be sent from the hub to Gazprom, which will be rolled back to anyone, apparently, and to all signatories of the protocol.
    So these 3 billion - such a trifle, which is not even worth remembering. Moreover, taxes on gas export volumes and the budget are not going to the budget of the Russian Federation.
    1. isofat
      
      +1
      
      23 December 2019 00: 27
      
      boriz (boriz) If I understood correctly, does the Ukrainian elite still have the opportunity to steal only from the population of Ukraine? And another question, "Yanukovych's debt" has been removed or not?
      1. boriz
        
        +3
        
        23 December 2019 00: 31
        
        Yanukovych's debt is not mentioned in the protocol. About debts in the protocol - in my comments below.
        But as for the Ukrainian elite - it was greatly moved. Those who received earlier will not receive (with the exception of Kobolev). New recipients - you can guess about them according to the signatories of the protocol. Gazprom including. And as for the people - you surprised me! Only the people and steal. Including ours.
      2. boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 00: 37
        
        In claims - at the very bottom of comments, p.1.
        
        isofat
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 00: 54
        
        boriz (boriz) Thanks, I understand. Ukraine will no longer be able to steal gas from Russia. "Yanukovych's debt", perhaps, we get. At the expense of the people ... I'm sorry for the Ukrainians. It turns out that selling gas to their population will be more expensive for their elite to put the difference in their pocket.
        I am for short formulations in the unfolding information war. Let everything be clear to everyone.
        
        boriz
        
        +2
        
        23 December 2019 01: 06
        
        For a long time they have been selling gas on the "reverse" instead of $ 280. Even now, maybe it will be cheaper.
        
        isofat
        
        +3
        
        23 December 2019 01: 31
        
        And therefore, Putin could not persuade them to a 25% discount, now they have the only way to weld. I looked at the Ukrainian media, in my opinion, they have already reached them.
        
        boriz
        
        +3
        
        23 December 2019 11: 17
        
        Well, yes, it remains only to understand why the "Servants of the People" will use this money. Perhaps they will fill their pocket.
        But I still have a faint, weak, crazy hope: what if Zelensky, is it still a little Goloborodko in my soul? And will this money be used to pay off IMF loans? If he doesn’t do this, the country cannot stand it, he has no other normal way out.
        Then I will say that their "servants" are better than ours.
        After all, our people have funded the army's quality breakthrough since 2006. until 2015, without knowing it. It is also, of course, insulting, they always rob the most powerless. But, at least, the goal was worthy. And now they are robbing to help unfortunate Americans in a "difficult" moment ...
      3. S.V.YU
        
        -2
        
        23 December 2019 16: 03
        
        And the Kremlin "FORGOT" about him! And remember, so forgive! Not the first time!
    2. 123
      
      +1
      
      25 December 2019 15: 21
      
      boriz I apologize for the delay with the answer, missed. Protocol protocol, but still better to wait for the signing of the contract. Much will become clearer. Since the European partners escaped, the situation has changed. I suppose that’s why we made a compromise.
3. kapitan92
  
  -2
  
  23 December 2019 01: 16
  
  Quote: Marzhetsky
  I heard from Putin that without a zero option for claims, there will be no contract. He has not said anything else.
  
  He said a lot.
  But I don’t understand why the transit of gas, supplies to the outskirts of gas were not directly "tied" with the channel blocked to Crimea. This topic was not raised during the PR campaign of the Guarantor called "a conversation with the people." Shy, probably!
  1. boriz
    
    0
    
    23 December 2019 11: 35
    
    Yes, calm down, Gazprom will reimburse all losses through new schemes. Most likely, Yanyk’s debt will be paid. Ukrainian gas buyers.
    1. kapitan92
      
      -1
      
      23 December 2019 11: 42
      
      Quote: boriz
      Yes, calm down, Gazprom will reimburse all losses through new schemes.
      
      "Blessed is he who believes"! New - old schemes, an increase in the excise tax on gasoline and gas in Russia, the introduction of new taxes, etc.
      
      Quote: boriz
      Most likely, Yanyk’s debt will be paid. Ukrainian gas buyers.
      
      Here "the grandmother said in two", it remains to believe in "an honest English court."
      1. boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 11: 55
        
        Read carefully my comments. What does the British court have to do with it? Russia through Gazprom tied Zelensky. Without us, he will never be able to pay the IMF. Well, or fill your pockets, how much he will decide. And, since the money of this scheme will go through Gazprom, then it will respect its interests. Most likely, Yanyk’s debt will be given back. And without a British court. Now Zelensky needs us more than he needs us.
        
        kapitan92
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 12: 11
        
        Quote: boriz
        Read carefully my comments. What does the British court have to do with it? Russia through Gazprom tied Zelensky. Without us, he will never be able to pay the IMF. Well, or fill your pockets, how much he will decide. And, since the money of this scheme will go through Gazprom, then it will respect its interests. Most likely, Yanyk’s debt will be given back. And without a British court. Now Zelensky needs us more than he needs us.
        
        Here you are, like, an adequate person, but try to take a sober look at this topic.
        Russia through Gazprom tied Zelensky. How and where did you tie it? After the breakdowns of TP and SP 2, Gazprom had no choice but to pay everything and compromise, one more condition, the removal of claims of Ukrainians for claims in the amount of 7,2 billion, which Gazprom was very afraid of. Without fulfilling contractual obligations to European consumers, he would have fallen for payments due to forfeit and, as a result, the loss of part of sales in Europe.
        
        Quote: boriz
        Most likely, Yanyk’s debt will be given back. And without a British court. Now Zelensky needs us more than he needs us.
        
        As soon as Zelensky gives a hint about the return of Yanukovych's debt, he will be kicked out of his "chair." He is a puppet in his country, there are other puppeteers there.
        
        boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 12: 47
        
        Yes, what kind of disruption? In any case, not the Swiss will put the SP2 pipe, not us. We have a Fortuna ship nearby, for shallow waters, and in Vladik there is also a pipe layer for deep waters. They just put 1,5 km per day, and the Swiss - 5 - 6 km. Therefore, they were invited. Well, they’ll put it until the end of spring. By the summer, they will finish building all ground units and all.
        And they simply tied it up, threw off those guys who were there before (Poroshenko and the company) from the reverse circuits and created new ones through the NCG hub and Gazprom. After all, Kobolev now works for Gazprom, and he created and twisted reverse circuits.
        Of course, no one will officially say anything about this, but, in my opinion, this is obvious.
        Do you think why Zelensky does not want to buy gas directly from Gazprom? It’s cheaper.
        Poroshenko pretended to be an idiot, he allegedly bought not Russian gas in Slovakia. But he is anyone, just not an idiot. There are no billionaires idiots. It has been clear for a long time to everyone how reverse circuits worked on Poroshenko’s pocket.
        And now Zelensky does not want to buy gas directly. Also an idiot?
        Are there too many idiots in the top positions? In the NCG hub in 2020. only German gas operators will remain, and they are closely tied to Gazprom. It was they who did not submit applications for pumping gas through ukroGTS for 2020. So think about who is blackmailing someone.
        Ukraine will buy and pay for expensive gas at NCG, and, in fact, Gazprom will deliver gas from the Russian border. This was also done with the reverse circuit. Only now Kobolev works for Gazprom.
        And the NCG is closely connected with Gazprom. And the money will go through Gazprom.
        In general, if the gas topic is interesting (and energy in general), listen to this expert. There is no other person who interestingly and competently addresses these issues. Here is the most topical video.
        
        isofat
        
        +1
        
        23 December 2019 13: 14
        
        boriz (boriz), I was here thinking, what is it, every newly elected president of Ukraine will now "swear allegiance" to Russia on the gas contract in the first months after his inauguration?
        PS Swear, in the sense of renegotiating the contract.
        
        boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 15: 17
        
        Does it bother you? I am not. Well, maybe one day they will find the scheme unnecessary ... But you get used to the good quickly ...
        
        kapitan92
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 15: 44
        
        Quote: boriz
        Yes, what kind of disruption? In any case, not the Swiss will put the SP2 pipe, not us. We have a Fortuna ship nearby, for shallow waters, and in Vladik there is also a pipe layer for deep waters. They just put 1,5 km per day, and the Swiss - 5 - 6 km.
        
        Disruptions in the date of entering SP 2! Fortune stands in Germany, taking into account the technical characteristics of this vessel, it does not have dynamic positioning (12 anchor system) in stock, the Danes will not be allowed to work in their ter. waters. The second ship is in the Far East and the distillation takes 2 months, this is in favorable ice conditions. They lay 1 km per day. So count!
        
        Quote: boriz
        Well put to the end of spring. By the summer, they will finish building all ground units and all.
        
        By summer it is possible, but Gazprom should start pumping under the contract from 1.01 2020
        
        Quote: boriz
        And now Zelensky does not want to buy gas directly. Also an idiot?
        
        Maybe he wants, but he can't. They called it a stomp.
        
        Quote: boriz
        So think about who is blackmailing someone.
        Ukraine will buy and pay for expensive gas at NCG, and in fact, Gazprom will supply gas from the Russian border
        
        Dear? Gazprom sold gas at the price obtained by the formula with reference to the cost of oil. Now the prices of the hub.
        Gas prices at European hubs as of September 30.09.2019, XNUMX:
        Hub TTF = $ 113,47 per 1000 m3
        Gaspool hub = $ 106,80 per 1000 m3
        NCG hub = $ 116,58 per 1000 m3
        
        Gazprom is facing a sharp drop in gas prices in a key European market. In the third quarter, the average selling price of a thousand cubic meters of fuel in the EU was $ 169,8, the company said comments on the IFRS report.
        Compared to the second quarter ($ 205,1), Russian gas became cheaper by 18%, and in annual terms prices fell by 32%.
        Gazprom has not had to sell gas in Europe so cheaply since 2004 - at that time the average price was 137,7 dollars, but already in 2005 it rose above 190 dollars after oil prices.
        
        Gazprom sells gas at a higher price - under long-term contracts that only partially account for spot prices, but the drop in demand adds fuel to the fire - by 4% per quarter and 8% year-on-year. In July-September, Gazprom's revenue in the European market almost doubled - from 934,7 to 586,7 billion rubles.
        
        Quote: boriz
        And the NCG is closely connected with Gazprom.
        
        Gazprom is one of the gas suppliers. Prices on the gas hub shape supply and demand.
        
        boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 15: 58
        
        For the base you need to take the price at the border of the Russian Federation / Ukraine. And who will tell you that?
        
        kapitan92
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 16: 01
        
        Quote: boriz
        For the base you need to take the price at the border of the Russian Federation / Ukraine. And who will tell you that?
        
        There is no such price. Gazprom "delivers" gas to Europeans on the western border of the outskirts, under a contract.
        
        boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 16: 03
        
        Ukraine, in fact, he will hand it over at the border of the Russian Federation / Ukraine. Due to such a price difference, the reverse circuit worked.
        
        kapitan92
        
        -1
        
        23 December 2019 16: 07
        
        Quote: boriz
        Ukraine, in fact, he will hand it over at the border of the Russian Federation / Ukraine.
        
        In the past, prices were determined by long-term contracts, and now (if they agree on direct deliveries to Ukraine), the price of gas at a German hub.
        
        boriz
        
        +1
        
        23 December 2019 16: 11
        
        The price at the hub includes transportation to storage facilities in Germany, storage and extra charge of the hub. By the border of the Russian Federation, these costs are not by definition.
        The price of the hub will still be higher on average.
        It will get colder, gas analysis will go, prices will rise. And at our border, the price will not change. The price will be fixed, but they will not tell us.
        
        boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 15: 59
        
        The collapse is temporary, precisely due to overflow of storage. And warm weather.
        And who else supplies gas to this hub?
        
        kapitan92
        
        -1
        
        23 December 2019 16: 01
        
        Quote: boriz
        The collapse is temporary, precisely due to overflow of storage.
        
        Collapse due to market oversaturation!
        
        boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 16: 04
        
        What am I talking about?
    2. S.V.YU
      
      +1
      
      23 December 2019 16: 06
      
      Gazprom will compensate all losses at the expense of the POPULATION of Russia!
      1. boriz
        
        0
        
        23 December 2019 16: 07
        
        Everyone has the right to their opinion.
Super warrior

+5

22 December 2019 14: 33

Do not talk any nonsense.
Russian pipeline gas will continue to be in demand in Europe for a long time, as it will ALWAYS be cheaper than LNG, and also because Europe’s own gas production is sharply declining (fields have been exhausted) from Africa.
In addition, Russia has opened a new path for Russian pipeline gas - to China.
Now Japan and Korea want this ... and Russia will also give pipeline gas there by building new gas pipelines ...
If only there was enough gas.
Victor N

+4

22 December 2019 14: 55

Incorrect interpretation of events, to put it mildly. Neither Gazprom nor the Government set a goal to defeat Ukraine. There was and is interest in increasing gas sales while minimizing costs. For this, pipelines are being built. The enemy is indignant and uses vile methods. Be careful not to play along with your enemies! You can easily turn from heroes to traitors. Some are indicated here.
boriz

+3

22 December 2019 16: 15

Why did Gazprom lose?
It was in the interests of the United States (Trump) that there was a disruption in transit. But there is no breakdown. What fright did you decide that the United States won?
And Gazprom has accepted the volumes of transit that cannot be fulfilled by other pipes. The ground parts of TP and SP2 are not completed.
Gazprom will not have transit failures. Where is the US win? And it would be nice for you to bring the price of LNG like the United States. The network has information that they brought to Poland for $ 600 at the price of our gas in Europe $ 130.
If you have other numbers, please provide. If not, explain to us how the United States will compete in gas with the Russian Federation.
If to quote, then do not distort:

boriz (boriz) December 15, 2019 13:04 p.m.
Gazprom capitulates: Kiev will receive both transit and compensation.
It's time to stop referring to Ukrainian figures. Irresponsible trepachki.
Zelensky recently harnessed that there would be no decentralization of power. So what?
I heard from Putin that without a zero option for claims, there will be no contract. He has not said anything else.
And stopping transit will depend on this. And from access to direct gas supplies.
The term of the contract does not matter if there are no ties to transit minima. The growth of gas consumption in Europe is possible, so that Ukraine can be on the catch even further. They profiled the role of the main transit. By my own stupidity.
Of course, Gazprom can calculate the safe volume for itself and drive it into the contract, but Ukraine still has to move at the transit price. While it is unacceptable.

In general, no one denied the conclusion of the contract.
As for the failure to submit applications of European operators for pumping gas through ukroGTS, they were not and still are not heard. Most likely, they will be used as an instrument of blackmail. If you have information on applications - share.
You really like to impose your conclusions on the subject: Gazprom - everything! Russia is everything!
And it would be necessary to rely on documents.
Why do not share with the people the quotations of the Protocol on the gas meeting? There are many interesting things. And it does not at all follow that Gazprom lost. Rather, the opposite.
1. boriz
  
  +4
  
  22 December 2019 16: 35
  
  Actually, the loss can be attributed to a fine of 3 billion. This is a miscarriage of lawyers (although who in their right mind could have dreamed that the principle "take or pay" would be attributed only to us, and Ukraine would be regretted not on a legal basis, but simply out of squalor). But looking at this protocol, you begin to understand that a good use was invented for this 3 billion (although they might not have to pay).
  The people who managed to delve into the protocol have the impression that Gazprom bought Kobolev and Naftogaz with giblets, taking advantage of the fact that they were driven into a corner.
  
  2.1 PJSC Gazprom will sign an agreement with Naftogaz Ukrainy (hereinafter, the Organizer) to organize gas transportation through the territory of Ukraine.
  
  Previously, Naftogaz was a pure trader, it became the organizer for the first time.
  What does it mean? Until now, the responsibility for transit through the territory of Ukraine lay, oddly enough, at Gazprom. About a week ago, Kobolev began talking about the topic that Naftogaz should take responsibility for the transit of gas through its territory. What surprised everyone in Ukraine a lot. Do they need it? Now everything has become clear.
  But Naftogaz cannot be held responsible. No money left. They were given. 3 billion
  Now Naftogaz will represent the interests of Gazprom in Ukraine.
  
  2.2.3 The organizing company will contact the Operator of the gas transmission system of Ukraine LLC to reserve the capacities of the Ukrainian gas transportation system. At the same time, the reservation of capacities of the Ukrainian GTS over the years will be carried out in the following volumes:
  2020 - 65 billion cubic meters. m gas;
  2021 - 40 billion cubic meters. m gas;
  2022 - 40 billion cubic meters. m gas;
  2023 - 40 billion cubic meters. m gas;
  2024 - 40 billion cubic meters. m gas
  provided that by the time of booking NKREKU will establish a competitive tariff recognized by the organizing company and corresponding to the level of gas transportation tariffs applied in Western and Central Europe.
  
  I remind you that the organizing company is Naftogaz.
  Whatever Marzhecki said, the operator company does not have time to take shape in accordance with EU law.
  1. boriz
    
    +3
    
    22 December 2019 16: 51
    
    Even if he receives a certificate today, there is another 2 months for the Open season procedure. Gazprom may roll in vank until March. A certificate to do - not one month (if normal). What is the way out? Create a gasket that takes responsibility. This will be Naftogaz. In order for him to be responsible, they were given money. Shefcovic can now call clerks from the European Transiters Association on vacation to stamp the document.
    
    3.1 The European Commission guarantees and confirms in writing the certification of Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine LLC as a new operator of the Ukrainian gas transportation system in accordance with EU standards, as well as the compliance of Ukrainian legislation in the field of gas transportation regulation with EU requirements.
    
    This is in the event that Ukraine has time to complete everything before 29.12.19/XNUMX/XNUMX. They have cases before fig:
    
    3.2. The Ukrainian Party will take all necessary measures by December 29.12.19, XNUMX (create all necessary conditions):
    - to conclude amicable agreements with PJSC Gazprom referred to in paragraphs 1.1 and 1.2 of this protocol
    - to make a final decision on certification of a new operator of the gas transportation system of Ukraine and on the issuance of a license of LLC “Operator of the gas transmission system of Ukraine”
    - to guarantee the legal validity of the decision of NKREKU on the terms of booking capacities in 2019 and the possibility of concluding a new transport agreement as amended by the parties to the transport agreement in accordance with clause 2.2.2;
    - to ensure the independence of the national regulator, the stability of legislative regulation, reliable legal protection of the interests of the customer of transit services, predictability, transparency, economic feasibility and stability of tariff setting.
    
    Well, direct deliveries:
    
    4. Subject to the full implementation of the agreements provided for in paragraphs 1-3 of this Protocol, the Parties will consider the possibility of gas supplies to Ukraine, taking into account the principle of pricing based on the price of the European hub (NCG), except for a reasonable discount taking into account the volume of such supplies.
    
    The mentioned hub sells gas in Northern Europe. The following year, Norway and the Netherlands leave it. They will have nothing to sell. Remains Germany, whose companies sell only Russian gas and are closely linked by interests with Gazprom. Recall the lack of applications for gas.
    The concluded agreement does not guarantee transit from 01.01.2020. You can pump up in the summer.
    1. boriz
      
      +2
      
      22 December 2019 17: 04
      
      Why do I think Kobolev is cornered?
      All technical gas has been stolen. And nobody is going to pay for it. Kobolev was a successful banker, but did not think in gas. As a result, he did not provide control over the safety of gas and is now responsible for it.
      He paid bonuses for the still not received fine (those same 3 billion) and now they drag the bonuses for interrogation. Because this is theft of budget funds.
      With the departure from gas, Kobolev and Naftogaz lose their authority and resource. There was talk of his dismissal.
      Now they thought up a job for him. It will feed on the transit tariff and the difference in prices of reverse and direct gas. Well, he knows how to rip off Ukrainians.
      At the same time, it will observe the interests of Gazprom.
      The budget of the Russian Federation will not affect these 3 billion, taxes are paid on the volume of exported gas.
      Of course, this applies to the protocol. The contract has not yet been signed.
      1. boriz
        
        +2
        
        22 December 2019 17: 26
        
        Well and on claims:
        
        1. In order to resolve legal disputes before December 29, 2019:
        1.1 In the “package” with the fulfillment of the agreements provided for in clause 2.2, PJSC Gazprom and NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy will sign and execute an irrevocable settlement agreement providing for:
        - payment until December 29.12.2019, 2,9 of about $ 2017 billion, including interest, in accordance with the decisions of the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce and Industry of December 2018 and February XNUMX,
        - recall of all arbitration and legal claims against each other for which no final decisions have been made, incl. claims of Naftogaz Ukrainy NJSC for $ 12,2 billion and 1,33 billion cubic meters. m (without monetary value),
        - the removal of arrests on the property, assets and funds of PJSC Gazprom, as well as the renunciation in the future of all possible claims and claims under contracts for the supply and transit of gas dated January 19, 2009;
        1.2 Until 29.12.2019, PJSC Gazprom and Ukraine will conclude an irrevocable settlement agreement in the framework of TCP case No. 2019-10: PJSC Gazprom v. Ukraine, which is currently being considered by the arbitration court in Geneva, Swiss Confederation. Such an amicable agreement will provide, inter alia, for Ukraine to terminate all current and possible future claims against PJSC Gazprom based on the decision of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine No. 18-r dated January 22.01.2016, 05.12.2016 and the corresponding decision of the Kiev Economic Court dated December XNUMX .XNUMX (including claims for payment of fines and penalties).
      2. kapitan92
        
        +1
        
        23 December 2019 01: 06
        
        Quote: boriz
        The budget of the Russian Federation will not affect these 3 billion, taxes are paid on the volume of exported gas.
        
        A very curious conclusion! Directly no, but now let's remember about the benefits and subsidies to our "national wealth".
        Here's an example:
        
        The Russian gas monopoly Gazprom is exempted from mineral extraction tax for 15 years and property tax for 20 years if it implements a project to supply gas to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline.
        
        In 2018, Gazprom received a ten-year exemption from mineral extraction tax on new fields, which is minus about 25-30 billion rubles from the budget.
        
        Against the background of benefits and subsidies, for large businesses, tax increases are especially noticeable for citizens, as well as for small and medium-sized entrepreneurs - both at the regional level and at the federal level. In 2015, property tax began to be calculated on the cadastral value, and not on inventory, as it was before. At that time, a trade tax and a fee for trucks weighing over 12 tons were introduced (the Plato system), and from this year a resort tax has been in force in the Crimea, Krasnodar, Altai and Stavropol Territories.
        
        From January 1, 2018, VAT exemption is not valid for agricultural producers paying a single agricultural tax (URN) and having an annual income of more than 100 million rubles - by 2022, due to an annual decrease of 10 million rubles, this bar will drop to 60 million.
        
        From 1.01.19 VAT increased.
        Of course, these 3 billion budget will not affect as long as there is a "cash cow" in the person of Russian citizens! Here are just "Bolivar can not stand all this" shobla "!
        
        boriz
        
        +1
        
        23 December 2019 01: 12
        
        I do not argue with that. I’m just saying that these 3 billion come from Gazprom’s budget. And how he will compensate for this at the expense of the Ukrainians, I said above, in response to nickname 123. Due to the fact that he will push the Ukrainian guys from the reverse circuits and sit on them himself. This is IMHO. My guess, but very believable.
gorenina91

-1

22 December 2019 16: 27

- Personally, I have already written in similar "gas topics" that the time of gas pipelines has already passed ... -Gas pipelines can only be used within the state for its population (on state subsidies, since this business is very unprofitable) and even then not everywhere ... -Therefore, in "pipeline affairs" Gazprom has no competitors ... -Turkmenia, Azerbaijan also fell for gas pipelines, and now, most likely, they are already "biting their elbows" ... -If Kazakhstan had started transporting gas through pipes, it would also have very big problems today (the same disastrous scam ... how to supply oil from Kazakhstan to Belarus) ...

- Zap. It is very profitable for Europe, Turkey (in the future), China to use (exploit) Gazprom as a "supplier" of Russian gas through pipes ...
- By the way, such a "supply-supplier" of pipeline gas is always very vulnerable to all the "nuances", "whims" and various kinds of "claims" that the consumer-client can always and at any time present to him (the client is always right). .. -explain further ...- there is simply no point ...

- As for Gazprom itself, then ... then ... then ... then over these five years (if an agreement with Ukraine is concluded) Gazprom will leave the "world arena in gas trading" altogether ... -Keep off its assets at a cheap price ; will sell pipeline scrap metal and other personal belongings and simply dissolve, taking with it tens (or even hundreds) of billions of Russian taxpayers' money ... something like MMM ...
- And Russian gas (already LNG) will be handled ... well, if it is still a Russian transnational energy company ... or maybe already a "joint Russian-Chinese" company, where only "horns and hooves" will remain for Russia. .. It will be a whole industry, a conglomerate of LNG plants; industrial enterprises for the production of all kinds of vehicles for the transportation of LNG ... - ships-trailers, railway trains, vehicles, air transport, etc ... etc ...
I’ll just avoid the details ...- it’s just nothing ...
commbatant

+2

22 December 2019 17: 27

It seems that the article was written by a Ukrainian journalist or Russian liberalist, that one, that the other, hating the Russian Federation and throwing false information, however, for him, apparently, it is worth something ....
commbatant

+2

22 December 2019 18: 02

In a sense, the preservation of Ukrainian transit is a plus. On the other hand, Russia is again firmly attached to Nezalezhnaya. The question is, was it worth it to fence a garden with expensive bypass pipelines if no one would let us leave it anyway?

It is tied, but not rigidly ... in case of force majeure circumstances, gas pumping through Ukraine may be suspended, and the volume of this gas will be directed along the Nord Stream ....
In case of force majeure circumstances, the Russian Federation is not subject to fines, because The Russian Federation could not have foreseen the circumstances that arose not through its fault (repeated man-made disasters on the gas pipeline, the intensification of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, etc.) ...
The author contradicts himself by declaring the binding of gas transit of Russian gas to Ukraine for the next 5 years a defeat for the Russian Federation and at the same time indignant why the Russian Federation is constructing bypass gas pipelines outside the borders of the CIS (and not that of Ukraine alone) ....
Five term, this is the term of the GDP in power, during this time the GTS of Ukraine can be destroyed by the forces of the Ukrainians themselves or the transit country itself ...

As from the next year the volume of gas pumped through Ukraine will decrease, it intends to compensate for the shortfall in revenue by raising tariffs.

What will affect the final price of gas, right, because transport and other expenses affect the final price of any product, since the Russian Federation did not conclude gas contracts with the EU, but with European countries separately, and gas that goes through Ukraine does not go to Germany (the main consumer of Russian gas), but goes to Central , Eastern and Southern Europe, then Ukraine will have to talk with these countries ...
Old Man also periodically screams about increasing transit, but understands that she will not be able to afford the Ukrainian joke with reverse gas, otherwise her economy will rise ....

Gazprom is beginning to really squeeze out of the European market. Poland, one of the largest long-standing buyers of Russian gas, intends to abandon it since 2022. Turkey, which we had high hopes for, sharply reduced the consumption of our “blue fuel”.

Can the author name new LNG consumers in exchange for the Russian pipeline?
Poland and the Baltic states do not count, these countries are building terminals for accepting American LNG, since it is more expensive than Russian, even pipeline, at least the same Russian LNG, they will ask for subsidies from the EU, do you think whether the EU will help eastern rogues so that the latter bought US LNG with EU taxpayer money?
Poland also pays large fines for the EU, in terms of ecology, as 80% of all CHP plants in Poland operate on coal (guess which one) and they need to be converted to gas. I don’t think that the EU will allocate money for American LNG during the modernization of Polish thermal power plants ...
The goal of the United States is to strike a blow at the Russian economy, depriving it of some of the revenues from the sale of gas and the EU industry, whose products will be less competitive ... by depriving the EU of control over logistics and cheap resources, the United States will further strengthen its dominance in Europe, and the EU disintegration awaits, "Transport Theorem" work in action ....
xilia72

-3

22 December 2019 18: 14

The question is, was it worth it to fence a garden with expensive bypass pipelines if no one would let us leave it anyway?
Marzhecki

-2

23 December 2019 06: 54

Quote: commbatant
It seems that the article was written by a Ukrainian journalist or Russian liberalist, that one, that the other, hating the Russian Federation and throwing false information, however, for him, apparently, it is worth something ....

Chat a lot, do not follow the words.
Marzhecki

0

23 December 2019 06: 59

Quote: 123
I can't help it. Here are some recent comments from local "analyst experts":
That's noticeable. Sorry, my advice was not useful.

You know, you look pathetic.
1. kapitan92
  
  -3
  
  23 December 2019 07: 58
  
  Quote: Marzhetsky
  you know you look sorry
  
  Sergey, do not waste your nerves. 2/4 of your opponents are landowners who have not been killed by the Bolsheviks.
  1/4 victims of the exam, with the last 1/4 you can have a normal, reasoned dialogue, but many of them left the forum, not having the opportunity to spend time and nerves on educational program and rudeness of the first 3/4.
2. The comment was deleted.
Sergey Latyshev

-2

23 December 2019 09: 44

Money doesn’t smell; profit, too.

Based on this, it was clear that they would agree.

And cheers-media once again showed themselves ...... and ....... predictors.
S.V.YU

0

23 December 2019 15: 52

He who chooses between shame and war chooses shame, he gets both war and shame!

And cheers-patriotism is useless!
Dedok

0

23 December 2019 16: 29

I didn’t read the article, and so it’s clear: a disgrace (not because they “lost”, but because there is a lot of “ambition” and not one iota of use).
But I want to ask against this background, if we can still do this: how long (how long) will friends, relatives, and acquaintances rule the country? If it continues like this, then let's go around the world.
Well, the main question: if they profiled, this does not mean that they will pay.
What will jump in the coming year? - mandatory payments, exchange rate?
1. S.V.YU
  
  -1
  
  23 December 2019 19: 07
  
  Housing and utilities tariffs will definitely increase!
Port

+3

23 December 2019 17: 52

Quote: dotR
For money, what you call the Maidan is impossible to arrange.

What money, they arranged for cookies.
1. S.V.YU
  
  -1
  
  23 December 2019 19: 09
  
  Cookies for the extras! Directed by "jam"!
The comment was deleted.
Upmost

-2

23 December 2019 18: 08

In aggregate, this means that we have been given about 5 relatively calm years, after which truly difficult times will come when problems in the economy will begin to determine the agenda already in politics. Now everything is in the hands of the authorities, what will they spend this five-year period on: pulling next pipelines or doing industrialization and diversification of the economy in three shifts

Will not be firstOr second.
There will be preparations for the transit of power / selection of a successor / creation of a scheme to retain the power of the same person (the options scroll).
And further outweighing the results of the government’s oversights in general, and the Infallible in particular, on the people in the form of new fees, taxes, and price increases.
All.
Upmost

-1

23 December 2019 18: 11

Quote: Sapsan136
It's time to free all the lands of Russia temporarily occupied

If only normal life was organized on ALREADY AVAILABLE.
And you get all new ones. Like Martyn soaps ....
Upmost

-4

23 December 2019 18: 19

Quote: Marzhetsky
The problem ... but that he stopped there, leaving everything else to the Americans

Here I disagree with you. And the fact that they took Crimea has already laid a heavy burden on the budget. Which the Americans are constantly "refining" with various sanctions.
Can you imagine what howl would be raised as you move further?
And another thing: Americans after all did not join Ukraine to themselves... But it is completely dependent on the United States. This is the top of "soft power". Filigree.
And this is something that the Russian Federation does not own at all. Take it for granted. And without this there can be no control over other countries. At the same time, it is impossible to annex all neighboring countries to create a "security belt".
This is also a road to nowhere.
1. commbatant
  
  +1
  
  23 December 2019 20: 47
  
  Quote: UpperMost
  Can you imagine what howl would be raised as you move further?
  
  Need forced the USSR to deepen and expand in the 39th, and he did not care about the cries of the Empireists, and, in principle, the entire League of Nation, which was silent when Japan seized China in parts ... and the "civilized Western countries" divided Czechoslovakia .. ..
  
  And another thing: after all, the Americans did not annex Ukraine to themselves. But it is completely dependent on the United States. This is the top of "soft power". Filigree.
  
  Whoever didn’t own the outskirts, read Karamzin, he’ll leave, maybe ... someone used brute force, someone soft, and Ukraine itself was not averse, if only to feed ...
  
  And this is something that the Russian Federation does not own at all. Take it as a fact. And without this, there can be no control over other countries.
  
  Thank God ... less than 30 years have passed since they got rid of the "breadwinners" ...
  
  At the same time, it is impossible to join all neighboring countries to create a "security belt".
  This is also a road to nowhere.
  
  What are you talking about, i.e. So, the USSR could fence itself off from NATO by the former satellites of Nazi Germany, and then the Western European NATO countries by them (former members of the Internal Affairs Directorate) from the Russian Federation, why can't the Russian Federation create a "security belt" from its former lands, donated to ungrateful rogues by the Russian Tsars and Bolsheviks?
  The ideal security of the Russian Federation is a safety belt from its former lands with a population fiercely hating the West in peacetime and wartime, a safety belt in the form of radiation-contaminated from former satellite countries of Nazi Germany (former ATS participants), believe me, no one about the latter and will not remember ....
Upmost

-3

23 December 2019 19: 57

Quote: dotR
Those. the vast majority of the territory of the Russian Federation is a suitcase without a handle. It is as if there is, but the sense of it, or not, or little

Well, they completely upset the patriots.
And they thought that the reserves (ownerless :)) of the territory - this is strength, you know.
1. commbatant
  
  -1
  
  23 December 2019 20: 54
  
  Quote: UpperMost
  And they thought that the reserves (ownerless :)) of the territory - this is strength, you know.
  
  If you are so "smart", then why are you so small ...?
2. plabu
  
  -1
  
  24 December 2019 07: 54
  
  What kind of discovery has already been put forward for the Nobel?
  And even such reserves are really strength, but you need to know and understand this, but this is not all right with you and your colleagues ...
Alexander Brovko

-1

24 December 2019 01: 09

The author is a typical example of a foreign agent.
Sing, little bird, sing.
Upmost

-2

24 December 2019 03: 10

Quote: commbatant
If you are so "smart", then why are you so small ...?

As for us, we are an "artificial project", a buffer between the Russian Federation and the West.
A buffer is always bad. He undergoes various attacks, i.e. concussion.
There are only one "buffer", which can be said in a positive way.
Something like that.
George Davydov

+2

24 December 2019 10: 49

Once again it is proved that the bargainer is the enemy of the people! For, as they said before, trading in non-renewable resources is like death. The USSR, headed by such effective ones, proved. Now the same forces are apparently preparing a similar option for Russia. The bottom line is that you need to produce for yourself, which is the economy for the people, carried out by the people, and therefore is democratic. But if the people and their resources are used by traders to make a profit due to the development of a foreign economy, then this leads to material and technological, cultural and spiritual, moral and moral degradation, which we see. Hence the conclusion: to change managers, and politics, and the economy. Make them truly democratic, not despotic.
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