The world started the Big Game
The decision of U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran (from the so-called Joint Comprehensive Action Plan - the JCPOA), adopted on May 8, 2018, transferred the existing system of international relations to a completely new regime.
In fact, world international relations at the moment have completed the transition from the bipolar phase (formally ending in August 1991 with the collapse of the USSR), the competitive unipolar and multipolar phases (1991 - 2018) to a truly multipolar world.
Although some structures born in the bipolar phase, in particular, the UN, EU, NATO, continue to formally exist, in fact policy Donald Trump draws a line under the effective activities of these organizations, since the United States under the current administration has become a completely independent pole of the multipolar world, although powerful, but in fact one of many.
US foreign policy at the moment is something similar to the policies of the administrations of the first third of the twentieth century - from Theodore Roosevelt to Herbert Clark Hoover, the predecessor of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. As then, the United States has an impressive economic and financial power, but the diplomacy of the future (then) and former (now) superpower is rather awkward, aimed at private tasks and causes sardonic smiles of European masters of international intrigue.
The other day, the London Financial Times sadly noted:
Note that the US withdrawal from the JCPOA is an unfriendly act not only in relation to Iran (this is natural, Iran is interpreted in the USA as one of the rogue regimes), but also in relation to the five leading world powers - Russia, Britain, China, France, Germany. Commenting on the American decision, the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized the "incapacity" of the United States.
At the moment, there are many versions of what exactly caused the American decision - whether it was necessary to return frozen multi-billion-dollar holdings to Iran, to the fulfillment of the JCPOA, whether it was fulfilling obligations to the Republican Party, whether it was seeking to switch to some kind of military operations against Iran, or simply an adventurous business Donald Trump’s style, in which the opponent must be stunned and crushed, and not at least partially be drawn to his side by classically arguing, discussing and arguing Harvard negotiations.
Actually, the reason is not so important, as the consequences caused by it.
If we are talking about the danger of the implementation of Iran’s military nuclear program and the operability of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), it should be noted that although Tehran’s hands are now untied for any decisions, it’s obvious that nothing has changed significantly.
Despite the existence of the NPT for decades, the nuclear non-proliferation regime did not stop anyone who wanted to acquire this type of weapon of mass destruction - neither the DPRK, nor South Africa, nor India and Pakistan, nor Israel, for which there is no official recognition of nuclear weapons, however, few doubt that Eretz Yisrael is the sixth largest military nuclear power in the world.
Simply put, if the Iranians really, seriously and substantially needed an atomic bomb, they would get it when they wanted to. Note that the South American giants Argentina and Brazil did not hide in the 1980-1990s that, if they needed to, they would create atomic weapons, and, say, nuclear submarines for about 5 years.
The second part of the problem looks even more curious - why is Iran so terrible for the Americans, and is it really worse than other “unofficial” (that is, non-permanent members of the UN Security Council) members of the military nuclear club?
It is also interesting that the closest strategic ally of the United States - Great Britain - actually announced its refusal to cooperate with Washington in withdrawing from the Iranian deal.
British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said:
Although the British accompanied his statement with a series of assurances of readiness to cooperate with the United States, the condition put forward by the British Foreign Minister virtually excludes such cooperation. The countries mentioned by Boris Johnson may welcome the return of the United States to the JCPOA, however, it seems that they will not in any way participate in the agreement that the Americans would now like to conclude instead of the JCPOA.
In fact, the price of Donald Trump’s independent policy was the loss of US status as the leader of the Western countries - NATO, EU, G7, since the leader, who emphasizes not caring for the interests of his allies, will sooner or later leave them.
Thus, the time has come for individual players on the world stage. However, instruments like the old concept of the balance of power, European congresses and the “European concert” have long ceased to exist, and multilateral agreements and the activities of international organizations have again been discredited, and it seems this time for good.
In fact, world international relations at the moment have completed the transition from the bipolar phase (formally ending in August 1991 with the collapse of the USSR), the competitive unipolar and multipolar phases (1991 - 2018) to a truly multipolar world.
Although some structures born in the bipolar phase, in particular, the UN, EU, NATO, continue to formally exist, in fact policy Donald Trump draws a line under the effective activities of these organizations, since the United States under the current administration has become a completely independent pole of the multipolar world, although powerful, but in fact one of many.
US foreign policy at the moment is something similar to the policies of the administrations of the first third of the twentieth century - from Theodore Roosevelt to Herbert Clark Hoover, the predecessor of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. As then, the United States has an impressive economic and financial power, but the diplomacy of the future (then) and former (now) superpower is rather awkward, aimed at private tasks and causes sardonic smiles of European masters of international intrigue.
The other day, the London Financial Times sadly noted:
The first victim of Trump's decision was the world order, or rather, what was left of him. Now the United States is in a lonely group, along with Israel and Saudi Arabia, on the same side of the toxic violation of international law. On the other side are China, Russia, Europe and Iran. To this list we should almost certainly add Japan, India, Australia and Canada. It is hard to imagine that this gap will not widen. Trump was deaf to the unanimous requests of the closest American allies. Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel even arrived and the last two weeks have been promoting their position. They returned with nothing.
Note that the US withdrawal from the JCPOA is an unfriendly act not only in relation to Iran (this is natural, Iran is interpreted in the USA as one of the rogue regimes), but also in relation to the five leading world powers - Russia, Britain, China, France, Germany. Commenting on the American decision, the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized the "incapacity" of the United States.
At the moment, there are many versions of what exactly caused the American decision - whether it was necessary to return frozen multi-billion-dollar holdings to Iran, to the fulfillment of the JCPOA, whether it was fulfilling obligations to the Republican Party, whether it was seeking to switch to some kind of military operations against Iran, or simply an adventurous business Donald Trump’s style, in which the opponent must be stunned and crushed, and not at least partially be drawn to his side by classically arguing, discussing and arguing Harvard negotiations.
Actually, the reason is not so important, as the consequences caused by it.
If we are talking about the danger of the implementation of Iran’s military nuclear program and the operability of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), it should be noted that although Tehran’s hands are now untied for any decisions, it’s obvious that nothing has changed significantly.
Despite the existence of the NPT for decades, the nuclear non-proliferation regime did not stop anyone who wanted to acquire this type of weapon of mass destruction - neither the DPRK, nor South Africa, nor India and Pakistan, nor Israel, for which there is no official recognition of nuclear weapons, however, few doubt that Eretz Yisrael is the sixth largest military nuclear power in the world.
Simply put, if the Iranians really, seriously and substantially needed an atomic bomb, they would get it when they wanted to. Note that the South American giants Argentina and Brazil did not hide in the 1980-1990s that, if they needed to, they would create atomic weapons, and, say, nuclear submarines for about 5 years.
The second part of the problem looks even more curious - why is Iran so terrible for the Americans, and is it really worse than other “unofficial” (that is, non-permanent members of the UN Security Council) members of the military nuclear club?
It is also interesting that the closest strategic ally of the United States - Great Britain - actually announced its refusal to cooperate with Washington in withdrawing from the Iranian deal.
British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said:
Now that the Trump administration has withdrawn from the JCPOA, it is their responsibility to describe exactly how Washington plans to reach a new agreed agreement that responds to our common concerns, an agreement that Iran, China and Russia must include, as well as countries in the region. Britain is ready to support this task, but in the meantime we will try to maintain the successes achieved through the JCPOA.
Although the British accompanied his statement with a series of assurances of readiness to cooperate with the United States, the condition put forward by the British Foreign Minister virtually excludes such cooperation. The countries mentioned by Boris Johnson may welcome the return of the United States to the JCPOA, however, it seems that they will not in any way participate in the agreement that the Americans would now like to conclude instead of the JCPOA.
In fact, the price of Donald Trump’s independent policy was the loss of US status as the leader of the Western countries - NATO, EU, G7, since the leader, who emphasizes not caring for the interests of his allies, will sooner or later leave them.
Thus, the time has come for individual players on the world stage. However, instruments like the old concept of the balance of power, European congresses and the “European concert” have long ceased to exist, and multilateral agreements and the activities of international organizations have again been discredited, and it seems this time for good.
Information