5 years and 40 billion cubic meters per year for Ukraine: what Putin and Gazprom are silent about


Three weeks are left until the end of the transit agreement with Ukraine. On January 1 of next year, either the “gas war” will begin, or the parties will be able to come to a compromise in the remaining time. Presidents Putin and Zelensky tried to find common ground on an acute problem in Paris at the highest level. To what could the heads of two states agree?


So far, two Vladimirs are “darkening” without revealing details; moreover, the official statements of the parties sound very contradictory. However, the available facts may be enough to make an overall picture of what happened.

At first, Ukraine finally passes to the European rules of the game. President Vladimir Zelensky on the eve approved the creation of the OGTSU, the new operator of the Ukrainian GTS. According to EU requirements, the functions of gas production and transportation should be divided, which was done through the reform of Naftogaz of Ukraine.

Further, the Ukrainian company will have to get approval from the European operators of gas transmission systems, which is not fast, but Kiev can meet and limit itself to accelerated certification. After that, the OGTSU will be entitled to hold the first auction to reserve its transit capacities. He has one client - Gazprom. If the Russian monopolist does not appear at it, then the auction will be declared invalid. The key question is under what conditions will an agreement be reached by then.

Secondlyif you believe the statements of the Ukrainian side, Kiev was able to “bend” our “national treasure” well. Recall, a few years ago, the leadership of the state corporation assured that there was no talk of any transit through Ukraine after 2019. The company tried to evade the payment of the fine awarded by the Stockholm arbitration, insisting on the mutual cancellation of claims. Instead of a 10-year contract, Gazprom tried to push short-term, one-year. Since then a lot of water has flowed. Concessions follow one after another. At first, the country's leadership allowed the continuation of transit, but on “economically advantageous” conditions. The state corporation paid a significant part of the debt to Naftogaz without further comment.

Now the following picture looms. It seems that the Ukrainian president nevertheless left the winner.

According to Zelensky, the new transit agreement will be “in the middle” in terms of time, that is, it would be reasonable to name 3-5 years. A five-year term also emerges from the issue of resolving the debt of Gazprom. The company will be able to extinguish it with gas, taking into account the discount that Putin offered. Just goes 5 years. There is a question on gas pumping volumes. The state corporation insisted on the level of 10-15 billion cubic meters. But now a prominent Russian energy expert Igor Yushkov admits that the figure could grow to 40 billion cubic meters annually. Of course, he is an unofficial person, but he knows better.

If you call a spade a spade, this is a victory for Kiev. The Ukrainian president delicately called her a "draw." The Kremlin did not confirm the information on reaching agreements. But, as you know, anger, bargaining, depression, and then acceptance, follow the stage of denial.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 12 December 2019 11: 58
    +6
    But will Ukraine supply water to Crimea from 2020, or have they forgotten about this problem?
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 12 December 2019 12: 18
      +3
      From this, Vladimir, so much dough does not drip and billions of dollars does not smell anywhere, so this topic is not particularly interesting to anyone ... That's how it somehow ...
    2. Conn Offline Conn
      Conn (Conn) 13 December 2019 02: 55
      0
      Putin has "forgotten" about all the problems, starting with the Donbass and ending with the promise not to raise the retirement age ... senile marasmus ??
      1. S.V.YU Offline S.V.YU
        S.V.YU 13 December 2019 10: 00
        -4
        Is it not clear that he is just a "wedding general" ?!
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. The comment was deleted.
  2. Warrior Offline Warrior
    Warrior 12 December 2019 12: 18
    +3
    All this is nonsense ...
    Ukraine agrees to CLOSE ALL of its fake ship cases with Gazprom, and the Stockholm court unfairly awarded, under US pressure, the DUTY to RESUME ....
    Otherwise, there will be no transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, and the Ukrainian GTS, which Ukraine previously estimated at $ 200 billion, will go to scrap.
    1. YUG64 Offline YUG64
      YUG64 (Yuri) 12 December 2019 12: 36
      +3
      To date, the balance sheet valuation of the GTS has been reduced to $ 120 million ...)) Obviously, a grandiose change is planned !!
      1. Warrior Offline Warrior
        Warrior 12 December 2019 12: 40
        +3
        Because in Ukraine there is no gas, except Russian, for the supply and transit to Europe through the Ukrainian GTS, but simply no one needs the pipe.
        Therefore, Ukraine will accept ALL the conditions of Russia so that the Ukrainian GTS remains afloat.
      2. Nick Offline Nick
        Nick (Nikolai) 12 December 2019 13: 22
        +2
        Quote: YUG64
        To date, the balance sheet valuation of the GTS has been reduced to $ 120 million ...)) Obviously, a grandiose change is planned !!

        That is, reduced to the price of scrap metal. lol good
  3. Nick Offline Nick
    Nick (Nikolai) 12 December 2019 13: 19
    +5
    Again, the author gives out the desired (he, probably, ukroshumer) for the real. There is no agreement yet, but the author already knows in advance what the terms of the agreement will be, awarding the victory to Zelensky. In fact, the contract, if concluded, will be beneficial to Gazprom and Russia. Otherwise, there will be no contract.
    And yes, hello to ukroshumeram, on January 8, 2020, the "Turkish Stream."
    1. kapitan92 Offline kapitan92
      kapitan92 (Vyacheslav) 12 December 2019 17: 28
      -5
      Quote: Nick
      Again, the author gives out the desired (he, probably, ukroshumer) for the real. There is no agreement yet, but the author already knows in advance what the terms of the agreement will be, awarding Zelensky's victory.

      The author knows how to count. We will try too!
      SP 2. God forbid, they’ll finish the offshore section, the Germans will have time to make part of the onshore gas pipeline, gas will come to Germany. Plot to Austria at work.
      TP Bulgarians made 11 km. Gas will reach Greece and Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary in flight. The input term is the second half of 2020.

      Quote: Nick
      In fact, the contract, if concluded, will be beneficial to Gazprom and Russia. Otherwise, there will be no contract.

      Not so simple. Gazprom has long-term contracts for the supply of gas to central Europe.
      UGS facilities are full at the moment, enough until May-June, if the winter is not cold, and then Gazprom will be forfeited.
      If we take simple mathematics on gas supplies to Europe and the throughput capacity of our pipes, then the volume of gas of 10-15 billion cubic meters per year is the most optimal volume for Gazprom, taking into account fully prepared land sections in Europe.
      So the Agreement will be in any case, but on what terms, we will soon find out.
      Gazprom got to the decision of the Arbitration and got it tight. If a decision is made to pay off the debt with gas, then taking into account the pricing policy, a period of 3-5 years will fall.

      Quote: Nick
      And yes, hello to ukroshumeram, on January 8, 2020, the "Turkish Stream."

      Hi greetings, but TP will work in full in the second half of 2020.
      1. Nick Offline Nick
        Nick (Nikolai) 12 December 2019 19: 39
        +3
        Quote: kapitan92
        Not so simple. Gazprom has long-term contracts for the supply of gas to central Europe.
        UGS facilities are full at the moment, enough until May-June, if the winter is not cold, and then Gazprom will be forfeited.
        If we take simple mathematics on gas supplies to Europe and the throughput capacity of our pipes, then the volume of gas of 10-15 billion cubic meters per year is the most optimal volume for Gazprom, taking into account fully prepared land sections in Europe.

        Arithmetic is inappropriate here. We will see what will happen in a year or two, three. The possible immediate gain of the Ruins, although this is far from a fact, could turn into a serious loss for her in the medium and long term.
        Russia has many opportunities and levers of pressure, and most importantly, a high-level grandmaster is at the helm.
        1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
          Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 12 December 2019 20: 06
          -3
          Bender was also a grandmaster.
          1. Nick Offline Nick
            Nick (Nikolai) 12 December 2019 21: 32
            -1
            Quote: Arkharov
            Bender was also a grandmaster.

            You forgot the quotation marks in the word "grandmaster".
            1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
              Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 13 December 2019 08: 43
              -2
              You forgot too.
              1. Nick Offline Nick
                Nick (Nikolai) 13 December 2019 15: 40
                +1
                Quote: Arkharov
                You forgot too.

                Well, if you decide that for 20 years at the top of power in Russia there may be a grandmaster in quotes, then at what level are your intellectual capabilities? Estimate yourself.
                1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
                  Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 13 December 2019 16: 05
                  -5
                  Here it is necessary to judge by the results.
        2. kapitan92 Offline kapitan92
          kapitan92 (Vyacheslav) 12 December 2019 22: 07
          -3
          Quote: Nick
          Arithmetic is inappropriate here.

          Oh oh And what is appropriate, emotional idle talk?

          Quote: Nick
          Russia has many opportunities and levers of pressure, and most importantly, a high-level grandmaster is at the helm.

          About pressure levers and opportunities in this situation, it is possible in more detail, only without idle talk.
          1. Nick Offline Nick
            Nick (Nikolai) 12 December 2019 22: 21
            +4
            Quote: kapitan92
            About pressure levers and opportunities in this situation, you can read more

            Gas, for example. A very powerful lever. Scope of supply and price. Transit options. For the Ruins, this is enough. But there are other levers.
            1. kapitan92 Offline kapitan92
              kapitan92 (Vyacheslav) 12 December 2019 22: 45
              -5
              Quote: Nick
              Gas for example. A very powerful lever. Scope of supply and price. Transit options.

              Enough verbiage! You are far from this topic, read more.
              1. Nick Offline Nick
                Nick (Nikolai) 12 December 2019 22: 47
                +3
                Quote: kapitan92
                Quote: Nick
                Gas, for example. A very powerful lever. Scope of supply and price. Transit options.

                Enough verbiage! You are far from this topic, read more.

                You are engaged in verbiage together with the author of the article. But in fact, what? Nothing to argue?
                1. kapitan92 Offline kapitan92
                  kapitan92 (Vyacheslav) 12 December 2019 22: 48
                  -4
                  Quote: Nick
                  Nothing to argue?

                  No one !! fool
                  1. Nick Offline Nick
                    Nick (Nikolai) 13 December 2019 02: 39
                    +1
                    Quote: kapitan92
                    Quote: Nick
                    Nothing to argue?

                    No one !! fool

                    Is pride tormenting? Then it's clear.
  4. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 December 2019 14: 17
    -1
    Quote: Nick
    Again, the author gives out the desired (he, probably, ukroshumer) for the real.

    Such comments say a lot about yourself.
    1. polev66 Offline polev66
      polev66 (Alexander) 12 December 2019 16: 17
      0
      So your article says a lot about you ... some fleeting conclusions from the OBS opera.
    2. Nick Offline Nick
      Nick (Nikolai) 12 December 2019 19: 31
      -3
      Quote: Marzhetsky
      Quote: Nick
      Again, the author gives out the desired (he, probably, ukroshumer) for the real.

      Such comments say a lot about yourself.

      Your comments, as well as your articles, are speculations, fictions, assumptions, which are presented as fait accompli.
  5. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 December 2019 14: 18
    -2
    Quote: Warrior
    All this is nonsense ...
    Ukraine agrees to CLOSE ALL of its fake ship cases with Gazprom, and the Stockholm court unfairly awarded, under US pressure, the DUTY to RESUME ....

    Proofs, proofs ...
    1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 12 December 2019 15: 08
      -5
      The most interesting thing will be to look at the reaction of these idiots when they sign for 5 years and 40 billion cubic meters, now the farts will not crack at ukrov, but at these admirers of the one who always hits first.
      1. Dan Offline Dan
        Dan (Daniel) 12 December 2019 16: 12
        +5
        Quote: rotkiv04
        The most interesting thing is to look at the reaction of these idiots when they sign for 5 years and 40 billion cubic meters

        The chicken is in the nest, the testicle is in ..... and you are already inviting for dinner here .... Wait and see. Little is left.
        1. xilia72 Offline xilia72
          xilia72 (xantos) 13 December 2019 02: 30
          0
          Rather, the Russian Federation will agree to gas transit through Ukraine than it will not. Also, fines will be paid to reputable partners.
      2. polev66 Offline polev66
        polev66 (Alexander) 12 December 2019 16: 18
        -1
        When will we do the lessons?
  6. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 12 December 2019 14: 48
    -8
    Until 2024, SOME will reach the insignificance of this power! May be?
  7. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 12 December 2019 16: 19
    -8
    If you call a spade a spade, this is a victory for Kiev. The Ukrainian president delicately called her a "draw." The Kremlin did not confirm the information on reaching agreements. But, as you know, anger, bargaining, depression, and then acceptance, follow the stage of denial.

    Yes, of course...
    - No, well, what’s actually happening ... -Personally, I am alone throughout the year about this and write ...- I write in detail, referring to arguments ...
    - And the site's "clever people" ... -Yes, their disadvantages are just going through the roof in my address .... - What is that ???
    - And my recent statement that our guarantor lost outright in Paris ...- so there these minuses are just above the roof ... -I don’t give a damn about these minuses ...- But what happens ...- there are so many inadequate site, perhaps .. ???
  8. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 12 December 2019 17: 40
    -4
    5 years and 40 billion cubic meters per year for Ukraine: what Putin and Gazprom are silent about

    - What are Putin and Gazprom silent about there ...- finally brought up for discussion ...- the audience finally begins to see clearly ...
    “But personally, I am not silent, not silent, and for a whole year now I have been constantly writing about stupid Gazprom; and about the traps into which this Gazprom got to its ears; and about the consequences of these traps that the Russian taxpayer will disentangle ...
    - And now what ...
    - And now ... everything becomes predictable to the point of primitivism ... - before "leaving quietly and dissolving":

    - Gazprom, while not widely advertising all the details ... will sign a "separate agreement" with Ukraine on the supply of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine (large discounts will be made in the price of gas, most likely even more than 25%) for several years;

    - All the same Gazprom will insist on increasing gas prices (and this will be implemented) for Russian users ... - This is already being discussed in the subject -

    Gazprom has warned of the end of the era of low gas prices for the Russians ..

    - Gazprom itself will disappear, and the new tariffs will remain (our government will then write off all this to Gazprom ... - they say that we are not to blame, we did not want this);

    - Gazprom will try to pay off all European arbitration debts ...- and, as always, with the money of Russian taxpayers so that Interpol would not look for it later in the afternoon with fire and with a flashlight;
    - And all of its assets and real estate, which is abroad) Gazprom will gradually sell, will sell cheaply pipelines that are outside of Russia;

    - Of all the existing new gas pipeline flows to Europe, they will survive, most likely Sp-1 and Sp-2 ... - and will survive exclusively through the efforts of Germany ... - The Turkish Stream will be closed ... - There will be branches through Belarus ... - But this will no longer be the prerogative of Gazprom, but another gas company that replaced it ...

    - In the Far East, a completely different situation will arise with China ... -But this is a very big separate issue ...

    - So, in a few years Gazprom will crank it all up and disappear ...
    - Well, and a completely different "transnational energy company" will come there, which will deal with LNG ... -I have already written about this many times ...
    - Respect to the author of the article and my advantages ...
    1. Kuzmitsky Offline Kuzmitsky
      Kuzmitsky (Sergei) 12 December 2019 22: 09
      +4
      Some kind of horror:

      Gazprom will close, the pipes will be stolen, and we will all die.

      Let's look at things soberly. Europe needs Russian gas, consumption is growing there. They are not profitable to quarrel with Russia, they depend on it. There are other suppliers, but it is profitable to take Russian gas. Of course, they love Ukraine there, but they love money more. Russia (read: Gazprom) needs the money that Europeans can get for gas. That is, it also depends on Europe. At the same time, it cannot do without alternative pipelines bypassing Ukraine either now or later, therefore, it depends to some extent on the Ukrainian pipe. In Ukraine, they know this, but they also know that transit volumes can be reduced significantly. And this is a serious blow to its meager budget, that is, it also depends on Russia.

      And in the center of all this movement, where everyone is dependent on each other and crushing one another, is Gazprom, which will receive its profit in any development of the situation. Of course, he urgently needs to close :)
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 12 December 2019 23: 07
        0
        Nobody loves Ukraine. Just Russia, the white sahib ordered not to love anymore. So you have to bend with energy packages and conditions. But u, the train left. A pipe to China, with a base price of $ 360 per 1 cubic meters, will allow us to survive the American sanctions. Even if they accept the 4th energy package, requiring free supply of gas to Europe.
  9. Upmost Offline Upmost
    Upmost (Innocent) 12 December 2019 22: 04
    -3
    A significant part of the debt to Naftogaz state corporation paid without comment

    Why call so inadequately?

    The best option that matches both the essence of the corporation itself and the policy of the country to which the corporation belongs is "Gas-Prom (+ we take dollars)".
  10. Upmost Offline Upmost
    Upmost (Innocent) 12 December 2019 22: 08
    -4
    Quote: gorenina91
    .. dumb Gazprom

    Everything is correct, but logic dictates that stupidity is not a given of the corporation itself, but rather of its leadership, and further, the leadership of a country that tries to "pedal" from a commercial organization designed to give profit, and with it achieve what it cannot get using the mind and knowledge (in the absence of such).
    Alas...
    1. YUG64 Offline YUG64
      YUG64 (Yuri) 13 December 2019 18: 07
      -1
      And you can reference, who paid what to whom and when? If paid, then there should be documentary evidence, and not just one Babka said ..
  11. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 12 December 2019 23: 00
    +2
    Mriy, Mriy, Mriy. Gazprom did not conclude a single agreement in advance requiring transit through Ukraine. If the Bulgarians fuss about after a thrashing and throw the pipe into Serbia before the New Year, then there will be no problems at all. If prolonged, three months the Serbs will sit without gas, on fuel oil. Oil transit through Ukraine was extended for 10 years!
    And the North ... It will be a cold winter, they will spit on energy package-3. By the way, NEL, originating in the same place as OPAL, was not subjected to any restrictions, it pumps Gazprom gas through a Gazprom pipe. And NEL is the north of Germany and France, Holland and Britain.
  12. xilia72 Offline xilia72
    xilia72 (xantos) 13 December 2019 02: 24
    0
    Cool mathematics, the Russian Federation supplies gas and still has to.
  13. Nikolay_a_m Offline Nikolay_a_m
    Nikolay_a_m (Nikolai) 13 December 2019 14: 21
    +1
    Well, they will drop the delivery time from 10 years to 5. What is 5 years in the history of gas supplies from Russia? Well, they will make such concessions, but parallel pipelines will be ready. After all, only cats will be born quickly, and after five years they will bend in a way that they could not think of at the beginning of the gas war. And it’s good to cry that you don’t get from the feeding trough of Gazprom. There are many feeders in the world from which nothing shines on you in the absence of professionalism, arrogance, the ability to beg, betray, etc., inherent in capitalism.
  14. Dzafdet Offline Dzafdet
    Dzafdet (Sergei) 13 December 2019 18: 19
    +1
    What did you expect from Miller? They can only rip us off easily and without problems. It is interesting why lawyers in Gazprom receive a salary, even if they cannot make a normal contract? Surely, some thieves are sitting ..
  15. Upmost Offline Upmost
    Upmost (Innocent) 13 December 2019 19: 24
    -1
    Quote: YUG64
    And you can reference who paid what to whom and when

    And where in my comment says payment?
  16. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
    antibi0tikk (Sergei) 14 December 2019 00: 12
    +1
    It looks like a cat and mouse game. The mouse is still fluttering, although the tail is already under the cat's paw. But the finale is known ....
    But such a scumbag, it won’t end so quickly. January 1 will not be the end of the comedy. Popcorn is still needed.
  17. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 14 December 2019 03: 31
    +4
    Even so, this is a victory for Bandera in one battle, but not in a war ... The construction of gas pipelines bypassing the non-blocking pipeline will continue, and the more resentment it inflicts on Russia today, the more terrible it will be for the self-proprietors to answer for it tomorrow. Transit through the non-transitory one will be stopped, it is only a matter of time and Moscow will find it easy to justify it, since in a few years the Ukrainian pipe will become completely dilapidated and unusable, and invest in its overhaul on unacceptable Ukrainian conditions neither in the Russian Federation, nor in the EU, nor in the US there are no and will not be crazy.
  18. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 14 December 2019 06: 39
    +2
    Maybe I don’t understand something? There are no winners in the economy. There are interests of the buyer and seller.
    1. Victor N Offline Victor N
      Victor N (Victor n) 14 December 2019 09: 51
      0
      Filtering the economy from politics is an empty exercise. In reality, you always get a cocktail.
    2. NordUral Offline NordUral
      NordUral (Eugene) 14 December 2019 10: 27
      +1
      No, Nikolai, there are very many winners and losers.
  19. NordUral Offline NordUral
    NordUral (Eugene) 14 December 2019 10: 26
    +1
    For their own benefit, these insignificants will surrender and sell everything.
  20. Segey Raven Offline Segey Raven
    Segey Raven (Segey Raven) 17 December 2019 12: 01
    +1
    Well, yes, to forgive all debts to Ukrainians. Negroes have already been forgiven. Only we Russians do not want to forgive anything. After the New Year, travel, housing and communal services, gasoline, foodstuffs are again rising ... SHAME on the Medvedev government and GDP.
  21. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 December 2019 08: 56
    0
    Quote: Nick
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    Quote: Nick
    Again, the author gives out the desired (he, probably, ukroshumer) for the real.

    Such comments say a lot about yourself.

    Your comments, as well as your articles, are speculations, fictions, assumptions, which are presented as fait accompli.

    https://vz.ru/economy/2019/12/21/1014904.html

    Are you ready to take your words back?
  22. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 December 2019 08: 57
    0
    Quote: Oyo Sarkazmi
    Mriy, Mriy, Mriy. Gazprom did not conclude a single agreement in advance requiring transit through Ukraine. If the Bulgarians fuss about after a thrashing and throw the pipe into Serbia before the New Year, then there will be no problems at all. If prolonged, three months the Serbs will sit without gas, on fuel oil. Oil transit through Ukraine was extended for 10 years!
    And the North ... It will be a cold winter, they will spit on energy package-3. By the way, NEL, originating in the same place as OPAL, was not subjected to any restrictions, it pumps Gazprom gas through a Gazprom pipe. And NEL is the north of Germany and France, Holland and Britain.

    https://vz.ru/economy/2019/12/21/1014904.html
  23. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 December 2019 08: 58
    0
    Quote: rotkiv04
    The most interesting thing will be to look at the reaction of these idiots when they sign for 5 years and 40 billion cubic meters, now the farts will not crack at ukrov, but at these admirers of the one who always hits first.

    That is exactly what happened, as I said.

    https://vz.ru/economy/2019/12/21/1014904.html
  24. filippino lippi Offline filippino lippi
    filippino lippi (filippino lippi) 24 December 2019 09: 42
    0
    At a press conference, Putin told the PEOPLE OF RUSSIA that his activities will not be appreciated by today's people of RUSSIA, but by the next generations, when he will be gone for a long time! Today? The contract for gas transit to Europe, through Ukraine, ANTI-INTERNATIONAL! This is a CRIME, but you CANNOT JUDGE the Kremlin today, you have no right! Only after 100 years! Look what happens next! Then everyone, who is not lazy, will file lawsuits against RUSSIA with the European COURTS, for everything that comes to their mind! European COURTS will unquestioningly take their side and will "MILK" the camarilla in full! And the Camarilla will shift EVERYTHING to the PEOPLE OF RUSSIA! That will be JOY FOR THE PEOPLE OF RUSSIA when they will be skinned! For the rest, beautiful marquise, everything is GOOD, everything is GOOD!