A month before the attack on the Donbass: Ukraine will not leave Russia a choice

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In early June, the Ukrainian army will begin a “blitzkrieg” against the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics. To such conclusions came the famous Russian political scientist Sergei Markov. According to the analyst, it is this time that is most convenient for starting a military invasion.





The fact that some serious operation is being prepared is indicated by the appointment of NATO military exercises near the Russian state border on June 3-15. Military contingents of 19 countries with a total of 18 thousand troops will arrive in the Baltic states. Only the United States will send 1100 units of military equipment. The exercises will be held on the territory of four states - Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Of course, no one is going to attack Russia, but these exercises are a demonstration of the force necessary to show Moscow the determination of the North Atlantic Alliance for the most radical measures.

Kiev has long begun military preparations for the invasion of the Donbass. Why exactly June? The 2018 FIFA World Cup is approaching, which will be held in Russia. If the attack on the Donbass occurs in early June, Moscow will face a very difficult choice. She will have only two possible options - either to "merge" the people's republics and allow them to be destroyed by Kiev, or to intervene and then disrupt the upcoming Championship, since the West will definitely announce a boycott for it, and Russia itself will not be far from football.

And the "drain" of the Donbass, and the breakdown of the championship are beneficial for Kiev. For Petro Poroshenko, any active actions against Russia now have the character of a “saving rope”, with the help of which he expects to maintain his power and control over the country. In addition, Kiev feels the support of the West, which has recently been increasingly aggressively attacking Russia in various directions using provocative methods - from the London "Skripals case" to the chemical attack in Syria.

The Ukrainian military command expects that a powerful blow can crush the republics of Donbass in just one week. Then Moscow will have to make a choice. If the cleansing of Donbass by the forces of the Ukrainian army begins, it will be a complete political fiasco of the Kremlin. Russia will have to observe the destruction of the people's republics, large-scale repressions against their leaders, military, civilians. A flood of refugees will flood into neighboring regions of the country.

A successful military operation in the Donbass will give Kiev confidence in its abilities, and the Russian government will be discredited even before the Russian people. Therefore Russian политическая the elite will split up - it will definitely include people who advocate immediate military intervention and the deployment of Russian troops in the Donbass. If the proponents of intervention manage to defend their position, then there will be a cardinal and final turning point in relations between Russia and the West. Although it seems that there can be no worse, in fact, in the event of hostilities in the Donbass, Russia will face almost a direct military confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance. But does our country have a choice?
18 comments
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  1. 0
    7 May 2018 14: 18
    Wait and see. winked
  2. +4
    7 May 2018 14: 27
    If such a provocation occurs, then the Donbass militia should be helped to reach the Polish border.
    The future of New Russia is more important than all the championships combined.
    1. +3
      7 May 2018 14: 37
      In, in, on the border with Germany.
    2. +2
      11 May 2018 06: 22
      If it will be so - this football is not needed - we lived without these championships - and we will continue to live.
  3. +4
    7 May 2018 16: 55
    That's how it is. But it seems to me that in the Donbass everything has long been prepared for a "solemn meeting". The armies of the LDNR have long been self-sufficient groupings and they themselves will meet them as they should. It will be an independent test for them. As for the numerical superiority: it's time for the author to remember 2014. The numerical superiority was clearly not in favor of the LPNR, but nevertheless, brilliant operations were carried out (of course, not without the help of "volunteers"). In general, where the APU breaks through, they will remain there. As one of the Russian political scientists said: "Russia has provided, is providing and will continue to provide humanitarian and" other "assistance to Donbass.
    1. +3
      7 May 2018 22: 38
      Quote: Kremlin Agent
      "Russia has provided, is providing and will continue to provide humanitarian and" other "assistance to Donbass.

      Yes, actually the United States gave us an example. Massively rotate videos of shelling and bombing of civilians, interview them, and then conduct a massive humanitarian attack on the APU
      1. -1
        23 May 2018 21: 51
        "Massively broadcast videos of shelling and bombing of civilians, interviews with them" - this is exactly what the Russian media have been doing for four years.
    2. +1
      9 May 2018 22: 41
      Quote: Kremlin Agent
      That's how it is. But it seems to me that in Donbass everything has been prepared for a "solemn meeting" for a long time. The armies of the LDNR have long been self-sufficient groupings and they themselves will meet them as they should. It will be an independent test for them.

      Each AK deployed in these republics consists of motorized rifle and artillery brigades and separate tank boots, in essence, each AK LDNR is a good division ...
      These forces will be sufficient only to conduct defensive operations and only at the initial stage of the war, their task is to hold the territory and communications of the LPNR until the arrival of the "North Wind" ... besides, the LPNR's disadvantage is a small defense front ...
      In order to legally use the Russian Federation its armed forces, it will be forced to declare LDNR independent states from the time of the armed forces ...
      Currently, LDNR have signed a military assistance agreement with South Ossetia ...

      The numerical superiority was clearly not in favor of the LPNR, but nevertheless, brilliant operations were carried out (of course, not without the help of "volunteers").

      The numerical superiority is a great trump card of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the LPNR has limited human resources, and the warehouses and arsenals of the YSC and the Central Statistical Committee of the Russian Federation after all the "Syrian Express" are a little empty ...

      where the APU breaks through, they will remain there.

      That's for sure, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be fixed, they will be strengthened by peacekeeping forces from the EU / USA (consider NATO), the Russian Federation will not strike at them ...
  4. +3
    7 May 2018 17: 54
    It is simply necessary to equip the LDNR combat units with our most effective and new weapons in advance, without wasting precious time, and our military instructors should carefully prepare the LDNR military personnel to confidently use these new weapons, there is no doubt that the AFU attack is inevitable, they just wait for the most opportunity and command from their Western patrons.
  5. +1
    8 May 2018 15: 19
    "A month before the attack on Donbass" such crap has been periodically written for the fourth year already, and even Zakharchenko sees the movement of equipment (maybe he smokes a lot). This is from the series "this winter Ukraine will definitely freeze" - and so every autumn since October for four years in a row - it's time to change the record!
    1. 0
      9 May 2018 17: 09
      Does not smoke and can not. Some terrorist mowed all the grass, but they wouldn’t think of heifers to heap, to spoil champions - bite it.
      1. 0
        11 May 2018 06: 28
        You smoke the same - did not understand about the heifers?
  6. +1
    8 May 2018 18: 14
    For Petro Poroshenko, any active actions against Russia now have the character of a “saving rope”, with the help of which he expects to maintain his power and control over the country.

    As if he had not been pulled up on one of these life-saving ropes. If Russia has to intervene, then there is no sense in stopping at the DPR / LPR border. And let the West impose new sanctions on its pants.
    1. +1
      9 May 2018 22: 21
      Quote: Askel
      For Petro Poroshenko, any active actions against Russia now have the character of a “saving rope”, with the help of which he expects to maintain his power and control over the country.
      If Russia has to intervene, then there is no sense in stopping at the DPR / LPR border.

      And what is the sense of the Russian Federation to go further than LDNR, to Kiev or something, by what forces and means, and for what, then to hang yourself with our 40 million spinogryz that will say that they are breadwinners of the Russian Federation? This was already under the scoop ....
      I and the people of LDNR do not care, as the entire population of these territories did not care what happened in the Russian Federation over the past 25 years ....
      The Russian Federation needs a TERRITORY, to organize a buffer zone between the Russian Federation and Pronatov Ukraine (example: Abkhazia and South Ossetia), the Russian Federation does not benefit from the emergence of one large Novorossia, it is beneficial to manage small state formations, the need will force the Russian Federation out of Kharkov region. - People's Republic of China, and from Zaporizhia - ZNR, etc.
      Anglo-Saxons work this way, it’s always easier to manage a bunch of small satellites than one big one ....
  7. +1
    8 May 2018 20: 55
    Ukraine is getting ready and this is visible even to me, a civilian. Echelons are coming to Donbass, the army today is not at all what it was 3 years ago. And the time is just perfect. And if it starts in Syria ... Yes, and the election of Poroshenko is useless.
    So Annushka has already spilled oil.
  8. +1
    9 May 2018 17: 07
    No, that would be to roll the dice, having previously written what will fall out, and if you have not guessed, then why. Everyone becomes like Merlin, who could have foreseen, just make tall people and absolutely can not understand the actions of the person standing in front of them. As the Connecticut Yankees said, such people should deal with weather forecasting. The brains will be busy, and people will not be scared, except for the end of the world and the beginning of the kingdom of darkness.
  9. +1
    9 May 2018 19: 39
    Not a diplomat, but a CITIZEN. "Both the" drain "of Donbass and the disruption of the championship are beneficial to Kiev. For Petro Poroshenko, any active actions against Russia now have the character of a" rescue rope "with which he hopes to maintain his power and control over the country" - From Poroshenko's Russia will wait for the life-saving rope around YOUR neck. And Uncle SAM will throw it on him. I just know.
  10. 0
    10 May 2018 17: 36
    And how does this political scientist imagine the breakthrough of many years of deeply echeloned defense without air support? The parties have no strength.