Dismantle C-400 into parts: what does Erdogan trade in for abandoning Russian air defense systems?

President Trump offered a hand of friendship to his colleague Recep Erdogan. To establish relations between Ankara and Washington, you just need to get rid of the Russian S-400 air defense systems. In exchange, the United States is ready to conclude a multibillion-dollar bargain and resolve the issue of alternative American weapons. In whose favor will this “Turkish bazaar" end?

At first glance, the situation looks straightforward. US and Turkey are NATO allies; American economy first in the world. A bargain is needed more by Turkey itself, which is experiencing serious economic difficulties. The choice seems obvious.

However, it must be remembered that these problems are largely the work of Washington. Recall, last spring, the United States began to introduce increased duties on imported steel and aluminum. But in August 2018, specifically for Turkey, they were doubled: up to 50% for steel and up to 25% for aluminum. In the spring of 2019, Washington graciously lowered the barriers to Turkish metal to 25%. But in October, President Trump again raised duties to 50% due to Ankara’s military operation in Syria.

Needless to say, such a dependence on the "hegemon", despite formal alliance in NATO, cannot cause enthusiasm in Ankara, where neo-Ottoman "imperial" sentiments intensified? The desire of President Erdogan to transfer Turkey to the “major league” is evidenced by his country's participation in the development of the fifth generation fighter jointly with the United States, in parallel with attempts to implement such a project on its own.

The Turkish authorities, very delicately, but sensitively, pricked the United States with the purchase of S-400 air defense systems. Four divisions of weather alone won’t make it, but the Americans, who invested gigantic funds in the development of the F-35 Lightning II, really did not like the fact that the Russian systems will be able to track the work of their “wunderwaffe”. Therefore, President Trump categorically demanded that Ankara not activate the acquired S-400s.

It turns out that for the 2,5 billion dollars of the Russian loan, the Turkish leader acquired an instrument of pressure on the hegemon, which could allow him to close a deal for 100 billion dollars. It was about the trade agreement for such an amount that Donald Trump spoke, linking this with Ankara’s refusal from the S-400 complexes. In addition, he proposed as an alternative the American Patriot SAM and even the renewed participation of Turkey in the F-35 development program.

Recep Erdogan turned everything beautifully, you can’t say anything. Does this mean that Ankara is once again rushing into the arms of the United States?

It will probably be true to say that Turkey will begin to conduct a more multi-vector policiesthan before. It is possible that for the sake of a trade transaction, Erdogan will disassemble the S-400 and send it to the warehouse for storage. In addition to economic preferences, he will be able to get discounts from the USA on American air defense systems and fifth-generation fighters with the necessary ones from the USA technology for your own airplane project.

But, understanding the dependence on trade with the States, he is likely to go through a greater diversification of risks. He has already received “Turkish Stream” from Russia, which will turn his country into a gas hub, next in turn is the nuclear power plant that Rosatom will build for him. In other words, Ankara will equally flirt with both the West and the East, knocking out for itself the maximum preferences. And we can’t avoid participating in this “Turkish bazaar”.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 14 November 2019 13: 18
    I also think that $ 100 billion is an exorbitant amount, which it will be difficult for Erdogan to refuse. But so far these are only suggestions. And the US has "7 Fridays a week." If Turkey "stabs in the back" again, then Putin would be better off voluntarily resigning for his policy, rather than waiting for 2024. These are all predictions and it's too early to "sprinkle ashes on my head." Will wait. Erdogan's move.
    1. Sergey39 Offline Sergey39
      Sergey39 (Sergei) 14 November 2019 14: 17
      Well, this is another question to whom Erdogan will stab in the back. His goal is to become a regional leader, not a slave.
  2. g1washntwn Offline g1washntwn
    g1washntwn (George Washington) 14 November 2019 14: 34
    Apparently, the United States is in no hurry to share information on stealth in the 5th generation with a partner, and Turkey, buying the S-400, decided to conduct a full-scale experiment. In the case of the disclosure of the real "invisible" characteristics of the F-35, the US military-industrial complex materializes losses for much moreОa lower amount than the bribe offered to Erdogan. Therefore, what is such corruption in the USA? No! For in the shining city there are only pink unicorns farting with rainbow bubbles.
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex 14 November 2019 18: 37
      ... and butterflies pooping with flowers ...
  3. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
    A.Lex 14 November 2019 18: 36
    In relation to the Turks we are not East ... we are NORTH.
  4. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 14 November 2019 18: 43
    What can I say - Erdogan is simply handsome! And this is not a blow to anyone in the back, but aerobatics in trade, taking into account the interests of their own state and no one else. If anyone really hit, it’s Trump and NATO, in any case, Turkey doesn’t have any allied treaties and obligations with the Russian Federation, they just bought good weapons, and even with a loan from the seller. What is a bad deal? And the fact that the weapon is good is clearly visible from the amount offered to the Turks only so that they do not use it.
    For the Russian Federation, too, no problems are visible - the goods have been sold, and even how spectacularly, Turkey will pay off the loan, there is no reason to doubt this either, and they also made a split in NATO ... both by the purchase of the S-400 by Turkey, and by this mess about ... So, I don’t know that some people here again smear “Putin's resignation”, “sprinkle ashes on his head,” etc.
    And what Trump will give to someone there or not will give is also a big question, and Erdogan knows this no worse than the others ... and maybe better. At a press conference after a meeting with the US president, he behaved more than restrained ...
  5. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 November 2019 06: 46
    Quote: A.Lex
    In relation to the Turks we are not East ... we are NORTH.

    Well, that's figurative. I also mean the PRC.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 15 November 2019 10: 21
    Naturally, he will cooperate with everyone.
    Especially where there is more money.
    Trades, threatens, blackmails. Like all. Like beloved GDP.
    Only he, unlike any Kyrgyzstan, is the 1st European country in the Armed Forces.